Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the impact of the easing of China-Canada trade relations. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term and a range-bound pattern in the medium term, influenced by factors such as the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, the off-season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, and the trend of soybean meal [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the report. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off-season after the long holiday, with short-term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand gradually decreasing, suppressing the market outlook. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China-Canada trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply [10]. - The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has improved China-Canada trade relations in the short term, and the mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled. China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume, and the future development of China-Canada trade relations needs further clarification [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The demand for rapeseed meal in China is expected to remain good after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short-term off-season, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume due to the improvement of China-Canada trade relations [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: Imports of rapeseed will start arriving in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills has increased slightly, with rapeseed inventory at a low level and rapeseed meal inventory also low [20][22]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Not provided in the report. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: In the short term, it will return to a range-bound pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400. Short-term trading or waiting is recommended, with range-bound operations as the main strategy [13]. - Options: Sell out-of-the-money put options [13]. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the bearish impact of the improvement of China-Canada trade relations. The future trend depends on the quantity of imported Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The KDJ indicator has oscillated and declined from a high level, and the short-term market has entered a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium-high level limits the room for further recovery, and it remains to be seen whether it will continue to rebound or decline [41]. - The MACD has rebounded from a low level, with a short-term technical rebound and the green energy turning red. The future trend depends on the import policy of Canadian rapeseed [41]. - The indicators suggest that rapeseed meal will be weakly volatile in the short term and moderately bullish in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and the short-term trend of soybean meal. The future trend needs further guidance from policy and soybean meal [41]. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel-Palestine conflict [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比有所减少2.35%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为33万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 53200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为2145元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开 工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.73万 吨，处于高位，进口利润为626元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为714.29元/ 吨，再生铝开工率为59.3%，环比增加2.24%,处于高位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（1.26-1.30） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 802 | 790 | -12 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 827 | 815 | -12 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 18.82 | 17.41 | -1.41 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕维持震荡 （豆粕周报1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期正常 | 偏空 | 巴西大豆产区天气短期良 | | | | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中国采购美 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 豆和南美大豆丰产交互影响 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期回升，油厂压 | 中性 | 需求短期良好，油厂开机预 | | | 榨量回归高位 | | 计维持偏高位，偏空 ...

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8730元/吨,周五收盘价为8850元/吨，周涨幅为1.37%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比减少2.35%。本周样本企业产量为44140万吨,环 比持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为20.36%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为0%,环比本周持续停产 新疆样本企业开工率为86.22%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为83%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为 61%,较上月开工率64.59%减少3.59个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%,需求持续低迷。具 ...

证券代码：839979 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 PVC期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为4793元/吨,周五收盘价为5063元/吨，周涨幅为5.63% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨,环比增加2.70%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为78.93%,环比增加0.00个百分点;电石法企业产量34.716万吨,环比增加0.73%,乙 烯法企业产量13.611万吨,环比减少0.96%;本周供给压力有所增加;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为44.75%,环比减少0.10个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为31. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market is likely to fluctuate at a low level. Inland methanol is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation due to the co - existence of positive and negative factors, and the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level of 2400 without macro - level speculation points. The price of methanol this week is expected to fluctuate strongly, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Daily Hints - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The inland market has a weak supply - demand situation, while the port market's pressure boundary has risen to 2400. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the social inventory in East and South China ports has decreased slightly, and the overall available circulating goods in coastal areas have also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day line is upward and the price is above the average, which is bullish. The main position is net - short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. The expected price of methanol will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2280 - 2385 [5]. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinye have stopped production. The methanol production start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the start - up rate of MTBE has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 685 yuan/ton, the price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, the CFR price of the Chinese main port is 268 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2313 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the futures is 2320 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7153, and the effective forecast is 0. In terms of the spread structure, the basis is - 50 yuan/ton, and the import spread is - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate is 74.90%, showing a decrease of 3.81% compared to last week. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all declined [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 59.58 tons, showing an increase of 0.79 tons compared to last week, while the inventory in South China ports is 39.8 tons, showing a decrease of 3.4 tons compared to last week [8]. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since the first half of November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1950 tons [59]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: Some Iranian methanol plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar and other countries are operating normally. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set, but it needs to be verified [60]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, while some are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and the expected maintenance period is 45 days, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical's methanol and olefin plants are operating stably [61].

2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为27.325%，环比减少1.20个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.445万吨，环比减少5.80%,样本企业产 量为45.6万吨，环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨，环比增加1.79%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为25.5%，环比减少0.05个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%， 环比减少0.50个百分点，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供 应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供， 市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继 续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源汽车产销情 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, geopolitical concerns supported the price of fuel oil to fluctuate upward. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,894 yuan/ton, up 9.50% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,356 yuan/ton, up 7.70% for the week [5] - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market was running strongly. High freight is suppressing the arbitrage economy of transporting from Europe to Asia, and the demand for marine fuel usually rebounds before the Lunar New Year, providing support to the market. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure in Asia has strengthened due to strong downstream demand, and the overall supply is still sufficient. There are uncertainties in supply and trade flows [5] - Crude oil prices may continue to rise, and it is expected that fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate upward following the market. For operation, the short - term range for high - sulfur fuel oil is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 3,250 - 3,450 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views - Geopolitical concerns supported fuel oil prices to rise last week. High - sulfur fuel oil had a weekly increase of 9.50% to 2,894 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil had a 7.70% weekly increase to 3,356 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market structure was stable, and the high - sulfur market was strong. It is expected that fuel oil prices will continue to fluctuate upward, with specific operation ranges provided [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract rose from 2,565 yuan/ton to 2,777 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25%; the LU main contract rose from 3,094 yuan/ton to 3,229 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38% [6] - **Spot prices**: The prices of various types of fuel oil in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed different changes. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 475.00 to 470.00, a decrease of 1.05% [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - There are charts showing Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from 2025 - 11 - 19 to 2026 - 01 - 28 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels and changes [11] 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [15]