重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口 267.7亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15191，基差1356（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-08投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8458，基差80，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1104元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1076元/吨，基差为28元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6184.70万重量箱，较前一周增加3.95%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-8 影响因素总结 每日观点 玻璃： 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The recent macro - atmosphere has cooled down, commodities have corrected, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the downstream terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is a lack of upward driving force for PTA. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the visible inventory of ethylene glycol may show a phased increase this week. In August, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 20 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4685, and the 09 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Lack of upward driving force, but limited downward space. Pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. The night - session opened higher and adjusted, and the negotiation in the market was light. The market was weak in the morning, and the buying was average. The market stabilized in the afternoon, and the mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 67 - 75 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In US dollars, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 522 - 527 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being stalemate [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4475, and the 09 - contract basis is 79, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, a decrease of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The visible inventory may increase in the short term. It is expected to be adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, PTA export, total demand, and inventory, etc. [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including the operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory, etc. [11]. - **Price - Related Data**: There are historical price data of PET bottle chips, production profit data, capacity utilization rate data, inventory data, as well as PTA and MEG's inter - month spread, basis, spot spread data, and upstream and downstream operating rate data and profit data of the polyester industry [13][16][20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：StoneX：25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨，至304万吨。2025年5月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期 66.17%）。2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨，同比增加39万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计 11.57万吨，同比减少10.32万吨。中性。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：消费旺季即将过去，7月配额外进口糖大幅增加，01合约短期受压回落，盘中震荡偏空 思路对待。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4992 - 5110 [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Base Spread**: On August 6th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 34534 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous period. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 26919 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 7615 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 44800 tons, a 4.91% increase. The production enterprise's inventory - holding days were 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [10]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% increase from the previous month. This week, the sample enterprise's capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 32458 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 12770 tons, a 12.82% increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase significantly [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.05%, a 0.169 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a 0.439 - percentage - point increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 70.82%, a 5.25 - percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 20.9487 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 84% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 478.9958 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 5% from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2730.05 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.4% from the previous period, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8]. 3. PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including price changes of different types of PVC, inter - month spreads, inventory data, downstream operating rates, profit, cost, and other information [16]. 4. PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical data of PVC basis, spot price, and main contract closing price, helping to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [19]. 5. PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report shows the historical data of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, which is helpful for understanding the price differences between different contracts [25]. 6. PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical data of Lancoke prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of Lancoke on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [28]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of calcium carbide on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical data of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and production, which is helpful for understanding the cost factors in the calcium carbide method of PVC production [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory, which is helpful for analyzing the impact of caustic soda on the calcium carbide method of PVC production [35][38]. 7. PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend It shows the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC, which is helpful for analyzing the supply situation of PVC [40][41]. 8. PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It shows the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also shows the historical data of real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year, which is helpful for analyzing the demand situation of PVC [43][45][47]. - For paste resin, it shows the historical data of profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption [50][53]. 9. PVC Fundamental - Inventory It shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, which is helpful for analyzing the inventory situation of PVC [60]. 10. PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF), which is helpful for analyzing the ethylene - based PVC market [62]. 11. PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports, and presents the monthly supply - demand trend chart of PVC [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 1万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 85% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为7万吨 | 环比减少1 | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 | 40% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | 硅库存为22 | 9万吨 | 处于高位 | 硅片亏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：报道称特朗普与乌克兰的和平谈判可能取得进展，金价震荡小幅回落； 美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年 期美债收益率涨1.77个基点报4.226%；美元指数跌0.55%报98.22，离岸人民币对美 元小幅升值报7.1848；COMEX黄金期货跌0.08%报3431.8美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.68，现货779.94，基差-3.74，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36045千克，增加36千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注英国央行利率决议、美国二 ...

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为16 ...