黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent vessel purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, incremental consumption is not given, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased vessels arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill压榨 is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Subsequently, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and subsequently, with the obvious limitation of new supply, the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. Oilseeds - After the China-US talks, there may be opportunities for China to purchase soybeans for import in the fourth quarter. However, from the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit under the retained tariffs on US soybeans is still negative, and the progress of vessel purchases is expected to be slow. Moreover, this time, the trade agreement between the two sides was not involved, and it is expected to be mainly emotional trading in the short term. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant [15]. - For domestic soybean meal, the current soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and as the operating rate gradually recovers, coupled with the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. From the demand side, oil mills are gradually starting up to realize profits, and downstream customers have basically completed their inventory preparations. Subsequently, it is expected that they will pick up goods at a rigid demand replenishment pace, and the physical inventory will continue to remain at a low level [15]. - On the rapeseed meal side, the rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal at the spot end plus the rapeseed meal inventory in East and South China is still relatively high. Although it has gradually entered the aquatic product inventory preparation month, the inventory depletion rate is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the previous expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the delivery month positions and delivery orders on the futures market have increased. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was released, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re-export it. It is also more appropriate to re-export imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China-Canada relations in the future, the long-term expectations for the far month are still relatively strong [15]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils Price Differences between Months and Varieties - P 1-5: -262 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; P 5-9: 266 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; P 9-1: -4 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Y-P 01: -270 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan; Y-P 05: -420 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; Y-P 09: -270 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; Y/M 01: 2.6678, up 0.48%; Y/M 05: 2.9105, up 0.51%; Y/M 09: 2.7159, up 0.59%; OI 1-5: -136 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; OI 5-9: -41 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; OI 9-1: 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; OI/RM 01: 4.0056, up 0.27%; OI/RM 05: 3.8895, down 0.28%; OI/RM 09: 3.7617, down 0.2% [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8188 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; Palm oil 05: 8450 yuan/ton, up 1.51%; Palm oil 09: 8184 yuan/ton, up 2.89%; BMD palm oil main contract: 3951 ringgit/ton, up 1.49%; 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou: 8690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; 24-degree basis in Guangzhou: 506 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; POGO: 409.539 US dollars/ton, down 1.168 US dollars; International soybean oil-palm oil: 68.52 US dollars/ton, up 54.23 US dollars [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 7918 yuan/ton, up 1.06%; Soybean oil 05: 8030 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; Soybean oil 09: 7914 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 51.65 US cents/pound, up 3.65%; Shandong first-grade soybean oil spot: 8100 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Shandong first-grade soybean oil basis: 186 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; BOHO (weekly): 57.847 US dollars/barrel, down 9.8182 US dollars; Domestic first-grade soybean oil - 24-degree palm oil: -460 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [12] Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2968 yuan, up 31 yuan, up 1.06%; Soybean meal 05: 2759 yuan, up 13 yuan, up 0.47%; Soybean meal 09: 2914 yuan, up 28 yuan, up 0.97%; Rapeseed meal 01: 2312 yuan, up 17 yuan, up 0.74%; Rapeseed meal 05: 2416 yuan, up 6 yuan, up 0.25%; Rapeseed meal 09: 2509 yuan, up 22 yuan, up 0.88%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1075 yuan, unchanged, 0%; Offshore RMB: 7.2017, up 0.0045, up 0.06% [16][18] Price Differences between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - M01-05: 209 yuan, up 18 yuan; M05-09: -155 yuan, down 15 yuan; M09-01: -54 yuan, down 3 yuan; RM01-05: -104 yuan, up 11 yuan; RM05-09: -93 yuan, down 16 yuan; RM09-01: 197 yuan, up 5 yuan; Soybean meal spot in Rizhao: 3000 yuan, unchanged; Soybean meal basis in Rizhao: 86 yuan, down 28 yuan; Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian: 2453 yuan, down 11 yuan; Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian: -34 yuan, up 46 yuan; Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 547 yuan, unchanged; Futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 405 yuan, up 6 yuan [19]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Domestic social inventory has dropped to 83,300 tons, entering the destocking cycle. Tight spot supply supports prices [3]. - Spot premium remains at a high level (Shanghai basis is 480 yuan/ton). The tight situation on the spot side restricts the downside space of zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Zinc ore imports have increased, and rising processing fees have promoted the repair of smelting profits, leading to an increase in smelter output [3]. - The downstream has entered the traditional off - season, and export orders are restricted by tariff policies, weakening demand support [3]. Trading Advisory Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the domestic zinc market provide limited support. The growth in supply and off - season demand are in a tug - of - war, and it may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on zinc - related products are presented, including the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export seasonality of galvanized coils, galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, etc. Also, data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment are provided [5][12][17] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trading volume, open interest, and price trends of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc is presented, as well as the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, and the term structure and basis trends of LME zinc and domestic zinc [22][23][25] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate imports, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, and inventory are provided, including the inventory of zinc concentrates, LME zinc, and SHFE zinc [33][36][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong cost support at the mining end, with Indonesian nickel ore policies driving up costs and strengthening the bottom support; Intermediate product supply is temporarily tight, nickel sulfate prices are rising moderately, and the cost - pricing mechanism supports nickel prices [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, refined nickel production capacity is expected to increase, and new - energy consumption growth has slowed down; High social inventories of pure nickel continue to suppress price rebound [3] - **Trading Advice**: The fundamentals are mixed. In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to cost support at the mining end and marginal changes in inventories [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 123,450 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan (-0.95%) week - on - week; LME Nickel 3M is 15,575 dollars/ton, up 345 dollars week - on - week, but the week - on - week change is - 0.27%. The trading volume is 111,203 lots, up 9,286 lots (9.11%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 70,991 lots, up 3,051 lots (4.5%) week - on - week [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest value of Stainless Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (0%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 64,097 lots, down 86,016 lots (-57.30%) week - on - week, and the open interest is 67,770 lots, down 21,583 lots (-24.15%) week - on - week [4] - **Spot Prices**: The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 125,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.02%); Imported nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); 1 Electrolytic Nickel is 124,825 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Nickel beans are 123,175 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan (-0.06%); Electrowon nickel is 123,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan (0.06%) [4] - **Inventories**: Domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, down 13 tons; LME nickel inventory is 197,670 tons, down 642 tons; Stainless steel social inventory is 989.1 thousand tons, up 13.7 thousand tons; Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 thousand tons, up 4,223 thousand tons [4][6] Charts - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices**: Present the historical closing prices of SHFE Nickel Futures Main Contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading prices, and Stainless Steel Futures Main Contract [8][9] - **Nickel Spot Average Price**: Shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [11] - **Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory**: Includes China's monthly refined nickel production, total monthly primary nickel supply (including imports), domestic social inventories of nickel plates and nickel beans, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore prices, and China's port nickel ore inventories [13][14][15] - **Ferronickel**: Covers the average price of Indonesian high - grade ferronickel (Ni≥14%, duty - paid at port), China's monthly ferronickel production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in China, and Indonesia's monthly ferronickel production [17][18][19][20] - **Downstream Nickel Sulfate**: Involves the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly nickel sulfate production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors [22][23][24][25][26] - **Stainless Steel**: Includes the profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, monthly stainless - steel production, and stainless - steel inventories [27][28][29][30]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

油脂油料产业日报 2025/05/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]