Group 1: Hot News - Trump proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Ukraine crisis, and parties have differences on some terms. Zelensky is willing to meet Trump to discuss the "peace plan", and the Ukrainian negotiating representative denied the claim that Ukraine has "principally agreed" to the US "peace plan" [2] - Kremlin spokesman Peskov said it's too early to conclude that the Ukraine conflict is about to end [2] - On November 26, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held a video meeting with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Šefčovič to discuss economic and trade issues such as Nexperia [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025 [2] - JPMorgan economists changed their prediction, believing that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in December [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: asphalt, methanol, coking coal, lithium carbonate, and Shanghai gold [3] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: non - metallic building materials rose 3.11%, precious metals rose 29.49%, oilseeds rose 9.76%, non - ferrous metals rose 22.38%, soft commodities rose 2.82%, coal, coke, steel, and ore rose 12.59%, energy rose 3.02%, chemicals rose 11.09%, grains rose 1.45%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 4.28% [3] Group 3: Sector Position - The graph shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, German DAX, Nikkei 225, UK FTSE 100 | - 0.15, 0.12, 0.61, 0.15, 0.69, 0.13, 0.98, 1.85, 0.85 | - 2.29, - 1.32, - 2.65, - 4.99, - 0.40, 0.08, - 1.10, - 5.44, - 0.26 | 15.29, 10.69, 14.81, 21.64, 15.83, 29.25, 19.02, 24.23, 18.58 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures, 5 - year Treasury futures, 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.36, - 0.22, - 0.05 | - 0.76, - 0.31, - 0.17 | - 0.99, - 0.76, - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, Wind Commodity Index | 0.00, 1.05, 0.74, 0.00, 0.34 | - 2.69, - 3.79, 3.99, - 0.54, - 0.28 | - 0.79, - 18.58, 58.62, 23.36, 30.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index, CBOE Volatility Index | - 0.22, 0.00 | - 0.14, 6.42 | - 8.20, 6.97 | [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 26, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, and their price trends vary [6]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 26, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Peanuts rose nearly 4%, polysilicon rose nearly 3%, glass and Shanghai silver rose nearly 2%, and lithium carbonate, urea, and live pigs rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell nearly 8%, and polypropylene (PP), coke, coking coal, plastic, and fuel oil fell more than 1%. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.41%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.14%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) remained flat, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.09%. The main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.21%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.86%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 26, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.313 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.266 billion yuan, and lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 919 million yuan; in terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 2.86 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 2.76 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 1.355 billion yuan [6][7]. Copper - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. The US economic data had little impact on copper prices. The copper concentrate inventory has been accumulating for a week, and the Indonesian Grasberg mine is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Although the import of refined copper has decreased, the domestic supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also been accumulating. The implementation of Policy 770 is yet to be determined, and the production of recycled copper rods in some regions has decreased. After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream procurement increased. Overall, after the Sino - US leaders' dialogue, the international risk expectation has eased, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will be strong before the interest rate cut meeting [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, rising during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,400 yuan/ton, both rising by 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of October 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year. The price of spodumene has risen, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by seasonality. The demand for energy storage is expected to be strong, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing. The market is affected by industry news and sentiment [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year. The end of the peak demand season, the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, and the high - level US crude oil production have put pressure on the market. Geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the armed conflict in Libya, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine also affect the market. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly [12][14]. Asphalt - The operating rate of asphalt last week decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8%, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The operating rates of downstream industries varied. The shipment volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of demand due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in asphalt futures prices [15]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn wire, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly. On November 26, some overhauled devices restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 83%. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the increase in supply due to new capacity and reduced overhauls, combined with the end of the peak season for downstream demand, are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in PP prices [16][17]. Plastic - On November 26, the operating rate of plastic remained at about 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The new capacity of some enterprises has been put into production, and the operating rate has slightly decreased. The destocking of petrochemicals has slowed down, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in plastic prices [18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. The operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have increased export orders, but the quotes of Formosa Plastics in December have decreased. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The new capacity has been put into production, and it is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate weakly [19][20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, falling during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal decreased by 2 yuan/ton. In October, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year. The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased slightly. The inventory of mines has increased significantly, while the inventory of coking enterprises has decreased. The steel mill's operating rate and hot metal production have increased, but the profit has weakened. The coking coal price has recovered the previous increase, and there may be opportunities for the market to be boosted by winter storage meetings and major domestic meetings [21]. Urea - The futures price of urea opened low and moved high, showing a strong trend during the day. The spot price is still weak, but the low - price transactions in the market are good. The daily production is much higher than the same period in previous years, and it is expected to remain above 190,000 tons before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired devices. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed down. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has recovered, and the inventory of urea has decreased for several weeks. The market demand has improved, but the upward space is limited due to sufficient supply [23].

【冠通期货研究报告】 震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日铜高开高走，震荡偏强，数据显示，美国 9 月 PPI 同比增长 2.7%，预估增长 2.7%，前值为增长 2.6%；美国 9 月 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，预估增长 0.3%，前值为下降 0.1%。美国 9 月核心 PPI 同比增长 2.6%，预期增长 2.7%，前值增长 2.8%。美国 9 月零 售销售环比增长 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.60%。铜精矿库存连续一周累库，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼 费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，上期所 铜库存也连续累库，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地，再生铜杆企 业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预计再生铜杆 开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜 材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅反弹，受 成本高价的制约，铜材生 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has more low - price transactions, demand has improved, and the futures price has rebounded. However, the rebound is limited due to sufficient upstream supply [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The spot price continued to weaken, but low - price transactions in the market were good, and some factories stopped selling [1][2][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the historical average. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - fired plants, the daily production of upstream plants will fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal cost has slowed down, and downstream demand needs to be verified [1] - The operating load of compound fertilizer factories has increased. After the end of environmental inspections last week, enterprise equipment gradually resumed production, and some equipment in Northeast China started operation. Some equipment's operating load has reached a relatively high level [1] - Due to increased downstream terminal purchasing speed and reserve demand, inventories have been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decrease this week [1][8] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,630 yuan/ton, closed at 1,654 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The trading volume was 229,335 lots (- 4,980 lots). Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 5,923 lots and the short position increased by 1,272 lots [2] - **Spot**: The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,570 to 1,620 yuan/ton. Low - end prices have better transactions, while high - end prices have a general trading atmosphere [1][4] - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 24 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% [8] - **Supply**: On November 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 205,900 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.85% [9] - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 28, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.65 days, a decrease of 0.47 days from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.6% [10]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成 影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗 斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，不过也有乌方官员否认原则上同意美方和平计划，俄乌 和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比 亚首都的黎波里附近爆 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征 个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 基差 月差 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 仓单数量合计（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1000 2000 3000 主要仓库、厂库仓单数量（张） 432处 安阳万庄库 衡水棉麻库 宁陵史丹利库 中农云仓库 河北东光库 云图控股库 中农控股库 晋控天庆库 中原大化库 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 山东09合约基差(元/吨） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, falling prices from Formosa Plastics in December, and the decline in futures prices of coking coal, despite some positive factors like the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, and last week's export orders increased month - on - month. However, Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are coming on - stream, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,466 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,501 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,489 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.42%. The position volume decreased by 33,859 lots to 1,227,649 lots [2] Basis - On November 26th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,445 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,489 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 44 yuan/ton, weakening by 13 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfafa has ended. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run stages [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real estate all decreased significantly year - on - year. The comprehensive improvement of the real estate market still takes time. As of the week of November 23rd, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] Inventory - As of the week of November 20th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, which was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and was still at a high level [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]