1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: At the beginning of the month, the US government shutdown increased market uncertainty, leading to a significant rise in copper prices. Recent talks between China, the US, and Malaysia created an optimistic market outlook, and the US inflation data CPI was slower than expected, prompting the market to continue trading on interest - rate cut expectations. China's Fourth Plenary Session set the tone for the "15th Five - Year Plan", reaffirming the focus on economic development, but there is no obvious policy guidance affecting copper prices for now [6]. - Supply aspect: Accidents and shutdowns at mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg, Chile's El Teniente, and Congo's Kamoa - Kakula led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply. Domestic copper mine inventories have been declining, and high TC/RC fees are driving up copper prices. In September 2025, refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase and a 2.7% month - on - month decrease. Production in November may continue to decline due to planned maintenance at five smelters and a continuous shortage of anode plates. High copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, but overall inventory is still at a low level, supporting the upward trend of copper prices [6]. - Demand aspect: The apparent consumption of copper was 14,565 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations for copper are obvious, with continuous growth in apparent consumption. The explosion of energy - storage battery orders has boosted copper demand, and the expected improvement in industrial demand, as well as the rapid development of new energy and AI, are also driving copper demand. Although high copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing willingness, rigid demand still exists [6]. - Overall: At the beginning of the month, due to macro - economic uncertainty, market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and non - ferrous metals prices rose. After the holiday, copper prices opened higher and continued to rise. With mild US inflation data and an optimistic global demand outlook during the interest - rate cut cycle, combined with a tight supply situation in the copper mine sector and rigid demand, copper prices remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Environment - US inflation: In September, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% month - on - month, lower than August's 0.4%; year - on - year, it rose 3.0%, slightly higher than the previous value but lower than market expectations. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, falling for the third consecutive month, and the year - on - year increase also dropped to 3.0%. The mild inflation paves the way for a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October [10]. - China's economic indicators: In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in China's overall economic output [14]. Copper Supply - Side Data Copper Concentrate Supply - Inventory and imports: As of October 24, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 404,000 tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons from the previous month. In September 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,586,873.52 tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile decreased, while those from Peru increased [21]. - Mine incidents: In 2025, incidents at major mines such as Indonesia's Grasberg led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply, driving up copper prices [21]. Smelter Fees - TC/RC fees: As of October 24, China's spot TC was - 42.6 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 4.45 cents per pound. In mid - 2025, the TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was 0.0 dollars per dry ton and 0.0 cents per pound [25]. - Smelter situation: After the decline in sulfuric acid prices, there has been a recent increase, which helps smelters reduce losses, but losses are still intensifying. Small and medium - sized smelters are gradually exiting the market. Smelter maintenance in September - October supports copper prices [25]. Refined Copper Supply - Production: In September 2025, refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase and a 2.7% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative production from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Production in November may continue to decline due to maintenance plans and a shortage of anode plates [29]. - Imports and exports: In September 2025, China imported 333,100 tons of unwrought refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles, a 26.46% month - on - month increase and a 2.90% year - on - year increase; from January to September, cumulative imports were 2.5509 million tons, a 4.07% year - on - year decrease. Exports were 26,400 tons, an 81.47% year - on - year increase and a 28.15% month - on - month decrease; cumulative exports from January to September were 489,500 tons, a 17.29% year - on - year increase [29]. Scrap Copper Supply - Imports: In September 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 184,100 physical tons, a 2.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.8% year - on - year increase. Cumulative imports from January to September were 1.699 million tons, a 1.38% year - on - year increase [34]. - Policy impact: After the issuance of the "Notice on Implementing Policies Related to Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors", the implementation of the policy is expected to be clear after the tax - payment date on the 27th. It may affect scrap copper production in the future [34]. Copper Demand Conditions Apparent Demand - Consumption: As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 14,565 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations are obvious, with continuous growth in apparent consumption. Energy - storage battery orders and the development of new energy and AI are driving copper demand, and rigid demand exists despite high prices [42]. Copper Products - Copper rod: In September 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1 million tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase and a 2.86% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, the expected output is 952,300 tons, a 4.77% month - on - month decrease and a 1.77% year - on - year increase [48]. - Copper tube: Due to the continuous decline in air - conditioner host factory production schedules and high copper prices, the copper tube开工率 is expected to remain poor from September to November, and copper tube enterprises may reduce their purchasing pace [48]. - Copper foil: The demand for electronic circuit copper foil is rising steadily, but the impact of high - price raw materials needs to be monitored [48]. Grid Project Data - Investment: From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, an 8.1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the annual investment will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [52]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - Real estate: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 453.99 million square meters, an 18.9% year - on - year decrease. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease [57]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - Sales: From October 1 to October 19, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 56.1%. The wholesale volume was 676,000 units, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 5% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 58.5%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase [61]. Copper Inventory Data Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - LME and COMEX: As of October 24, 2025, LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a 5.82% month - on - month decrease and a 51.01% year - on - year decrease. COMEX copper inventory was 348,000 tons, a 9.34% month - on - month increase and a 321.88% year - on - year increase [68]. - SHFE and bonded area: As of October 24, 2025, SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 35,100 tons, a 5.35% month - on - month increase and a 36.85% year - on - year decrease. The bonded - area inventory continued to increase due to continuous arrivals of import and export goods at the domestic smelting end and a poor import price ratio [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, but the price is expected to rebound from the low level in the near term and show a trend of first rising and then falling in November. Attention should be paid to changes in Russian crude oil exports after sanctions and the APEC leaders' informal meeting [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. Although the EIA data shows a rebound in the operating rate of US refineries and unexpected destocking of crude oil and refined oil in the US, the overall oil inventory has decreased. India may gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high. The EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory and an intensification of the oil surplus. The market is worried about crude oil demand, but due to the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the change in the US - Russia relationship, the crude oil price is expected to rebound first and then decline in November [3] 3.2 Market Review - In October, the domestic crude oil price declined. On October 5, OPEC+ planned to increase production, the geopolitical risk cooled, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated, leading to a continuous decline in the price. In late October, after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the price rebounded from the low level [7] 3.3 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The net position of WTI in October was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds continued to decline in October. As of the week of October 14, it decreased by 37,794 contracts to 109,606 contracts, a decrease of 25.64%, and a decrease of 47.58% compared with the end of September. As of October 23, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 190,000 barrels to 5.211 million barrels compared with the end of September and remained at a relatively low level [10][11] 3.4 Crude Oil Production - OPEC's August crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the historical high level [15] 3.5 Oil Drilling Rigs - In October, the number of US oil drilling rigs showed a decreasing trend again. As of the week of October 17, the number was 418, a decrease of 6 compared with the week of September 26 [19] 3.6 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil imports increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day, at a neutral level in the same period of previous years; the US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, at a slightly higher - than - neutral level in the same period of previous years [23] 3.7 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's September crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.23% month - on - month to 62.687 million tons, an increase of 6.80% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 3.70%. China's September crude oil imports decreased by 4.53% month - on - month to 47.25 million tons, an increase of 3.90% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.60% [27] 3.8 US Dollar Index - In September, the US CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than expected but still the highest since June 2024; it increased by 0.3% month - on - month, lower than August and market expectations. The US White House may not release inflation data next month. On October 30, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [31] 3.9 Gasoline Crack Spread - In October, after the end of the summer consumption peak season, the US and European gasoline crack spreads decreased by $1.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively. Affected by Russian sanctions, the US and European diesel crack spreads increased by $1.5 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35] 3.10 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. Different organizations have different adjustments to global oil demand and supply growth rates, and the oil supply surplus has intensified. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand decreased month - on - month, but the increase in other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 1.46% month - on - month [39] 3.11 Crude Oil Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an expected increase of 1.205 million barrels, and was 3.67% lower than the five - year average. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels, at a near - record low in the same period in recent years. The US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 809,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, the highest since the week of October 7, 2022. The US plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve [43][47] 3.12 Geopolitical Risks - The US Treasury has blacklisted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The US is deploying the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group to the Latin American waters. Palestinian factions agree to establish a governing body for the Gaza Strip, and Pakistan and Afghanistan hold talks on a cease - fire [49]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that asphalt futures prices will follow the trend of crude oil prices, showing a pattern of rising first and then falling in November. It suggests paying attention to crude oil price fluctuations and winter stockpiling situations [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Supply - Side - Last week, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3]. - In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month - on - month (a 16.9% decrease) and a decrease of 274,000 tons year - on - year (an 11.0% decrease) [3]. - The asphalt炼厂库存存货比 decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in recent years [3]. - Qilu Petrochemical's refinery is in stable production, and asphalt output will increase slightly [3]. 3.2 Demand - Side - As of the week of October 24, most downstream industries'开工率 of asphalt increased. The road asphalt开工率 increased by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [3][47]. - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared to January - July 2025 but remained negative [47]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025, but still in negative growth [42]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of pavers increased by 11.86% month - on - month to 132 units, reaching a neutral level in recent years [42]. 3.3 Market Conditions - In October, crude oil rebounded significantly from a low level. The asphalt/crude oil ratio first rose and then fell, slightly dropping from 7.14 at the end of September to 7.13 [10]. - In October, the asphalt基差 first rose and then fell. As of August 28, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the基差 of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral - to - high level [14]. - As of the week of October 21, the supply from refineries in the East China region increased, and their shipments increased significantly. The national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 290,700 tons, at a neutral level [3][26]. 3.4 Historical Data (September 2025) - In September, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.92 percentage points to 35.66% month - on - month and 9.63 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In Shandong, the开工率 increased by 6.66 percentage points to 40.4% month - on - month and 13.61 percentage points year - on - year [18]. - In September, the asphalt output increased by 9.09% to 2.7563 million tons month - on - month and 37.64% year - on - year, at a neutral level in recent years. The output of local refineries was 1.558 million tons, an increase of 17.76% month - on - month and 42.95% year - on - year [22]. - In September, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 11.16% to 3.018 million tons month - on - month and 39.55% year - on - year [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, capital markets experienced increased volatility, with risk assets generally rising after an initial decline. Overseas, geopolitical events and policy uncertainties influenced market trends, while in China, economic data weakened in Q3, leading to strengthened policy support [4][63]. - The significant correction in gold prices from historical highs can be attributed to factors such as the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical adjustments. However, the long - term drivers for gold prices remain strong [5][8]. - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 but emphasized the fragility of the global economy and the need for structural reforms [34][36]. - In China, CPI and PPI both showed narrowing declines, indicating potential for monetary easing policies. Exports in September exceeded expectations, but the real estate sector continued to drag down the economy [40][50][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Capital Market Performance - **Overseas**: Trump's tariff increase on China, the US government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affected market sentiment. Risk assets generally rose, but gold and silver prices corrected significantly, and non - US currencies depreciated [4][63]. - **Domestic**: The domestic futures market showed a differentiated pattern, with stocks, bonds, and commodities having mixed performances. The stock market experienced a technical correction, and the bond market showed a seesaw effect with the stock market [4][69]. Gold Price Analysis - **Reasons for the Correction**: The decline in gold prices was due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical overbought conditions, which triggered large - scale profit - taking and programmed selling [5][8]. - **Historical Comparison**: The 5.31% decline in London spot gold on October 21, 2025, ranked seventh among the top ten single - day declines since 2000 [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The long - term drivers for gold prices, including the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, the "scar effect" on asset allocation, and investment demand, remain intact [21][24]. Global Economic Outlook - **Growth Forecast**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% but warned of continued weakness, high public debt, and trade policy uncertainties [34][36]. - **Regional Performance**: Asia is expected to remain the main engine of global growth. AI is estimated to boost global economic growth by 0.1% - 0.8% annually [36]. China's Economic Indicators - **CPI and PPI**: In September, China's CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. Both showed narrowing declines, but CPI was still affected by factors such as low pork and oil prices and high - base effects [41][43]. - **Exports**: In September, China's exports reached $3285.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, exceeding expectations [50]. - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1015036 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [58]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with significant declines in various real - estate - related indicators [59]. Market Trends - **Commodities**: The CRB and Nanhua commodity indices showed different trends. Historically, the Nanhua commodity index has a slightly higher probability of rising in November [75]. - **Stock Market**: In October, the stock market experienced a technical correction, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The price - to - earnings ratios of major stock indices were under pressure, and the equity risk premium rebounded [79]. - **Global Economy**: Global economic sentiment weakened, with both the manufacturing and service sectors showing a decline. Inflation in major economies rebounded, and central banks' monetary policies diverged [86][94][97]. - **China's Economy**: China's manufacturing PMI continued to improve in September, while M2 growth declined, M1 growth increased, and the credit cycle showed signs of starting [106][111]. - **External Demand**: China's export growth showed resilience, but there were still concerns about external demand. Import and export price indices declined, and the export profit margin widened negatively [123]. - **Internal Demand**: Real - estate investment continued to decline, and consumption growth slowed down, with travel data dropping after the summer vacation [124][131]. - **Inflation**: China's CPI remained negative, and PPI decline slowed down. The macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased [134]. - **Mid - level Industries**: Steel prices fluctuated downward, oil prices dropped with increased inventory, copper prices rose with inventory reduction, and coking coal prices continued to rebound [141].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent increase in costs and improved macro - sentiment have driven the rebound of polyolefins, but polyolefins lack self - upward momentum. It is expected that polyolefins will mainly show weak fluctuations in November. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US trade war and anti - involution policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率is around 86.5%, at a neutral level; PP企业开工率is around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. PE下游开工率has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75%, and PP下游开工率has rebounded by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected, with the downstream purchasing willingness being insufficient [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The futures price has dropped more than the spot price, and the basis has rebounded but is still at a relatively low - neutral level. For PP, the spot price has dropped more than the futures price, and the basis has decreased to a low level, with a relatively lower fluctuation range compared to plastics [14][21]. 3.3 Plastic Production - In September 2025, the PE maintenance volume increased by 16.27% month - on - month to 53.24 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 270.65 million tons. The PE开工率decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 80.43% in September 2025, but recently it has risen to around 86.5% [25][29]. 3.4 PP Production - In September 2025, the PP maintenance volume increased by 15.12% month - on - month to 75.74 million tons, and the production decreased by 4.45% month - on - month to 334.86 million tons. The PP开工率decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 76.32% in September 2025, and recently it has dropped to around 80% [33][37]. 3.5 PE Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PE进口量was 102.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.07%, and the出口量was 9.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.55%. The LLDPE进口利润is in continuous loss, and the import volume is expected to remain low [43]. 3.6 PP Import and Export - In September 2025, China's PP进口量was 29.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.94%, and the出口量was 23.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.97%. The PP拉丝进口 window has been continuously closed, and the net import is expected to decline [49]. 3.7 Polyolefin Downstream - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 5937.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the export amount was 5595.38 billion yuan, with the growth rate rising to 3.90% in September [53]. 3.8 Polyolefin Inventory - During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 27 million tons. As of October 24, it decreased by 4 million tons to 72 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [61]. 3.9 Polyolefin Profit - The profits of coal - based and oil - based PE decreased in August. The coal - based PP process profit has fallen into a loss again, while the loss of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene processes has slightly narrowed [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Supply: As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [5][35]. - Demand: Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the factory operating load decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [5]. - Inventory: This month, the urea inventory has increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. Overall, due to the losses of upstream urea plants and the approaching gas - limiting season, the production will fluctuate slightly downward and is expected to remain at around 180,000 tons. The in - factory inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is relatively loose. The domestic demand is difficult to absorb the high - level inventory. As the agricultural demand gradually ends, the subsequent downstream reserves and compound fertilizer production will be the main demand sources. The winter storage rhythm and changes in export policies will also affect the price trend. Currently, the market is oscillating at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The spot market was weak during the National Day holiday. After the futures market opened, the price dropped significantly and continued to decline. The futures price once reached a low of 1,578 yuan/ton and then started to consolidate at a low level. It rebounded in the second half of the month, but there was obvious upward pressure. It is expected to consolidate in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of domestic macro - factors and possible changes in export policies [9]. Warehouse Receipts and Delivery - The validity period of urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts is up to 4 months. Specifically, factory and warehouse standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of February, June, and October each year should be fully cancelled before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of the same month. As of October 23, there were 5,484 registered urea warehouse receipts. Although approaching the cancellation date, the number is still at an absolute high level compared to the same period in history. Since 2025, the number of registered urea warehouse receipts has remained relatively high in recent years, reflecting the high - supply situation of urea to some extent [12]. Spot Price - Since October, the agricultural demand has been postponed due to frequent rainfall, resulting in weak terminal demand for urea and a continuous decline in price. Subsequently, supported by the cost side and with the start of agricultural demand and the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to high supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation and winter storage. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuate in the range of 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Looking forward to November, the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the spring production of compound fertilizers, off - season storage, and the rhythm of gas - fired plant restrictions will all affect the price movement. It is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly after a rebound [19]. Basis - The urea basis has been in a state of contango. The pattern of loose supply and demand has suppressed the spot price. After the domestic demand is weak and the export demand is gradually digested, the decline in the spot price is greater than that of the futures price, resulting in the futures price being at a premium. Near the off - season storage period, if the basis is appropriate, hedging can be carried out on the futures market [23]. Spread - As of October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, weaker than - 2 yuan/ton at the end of last month. Recently, the urea futures contracts have gradually rebounded, but the upward and downward space for the 01 contract is limited, and the 05 contract is still far away. The spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27]. Supply - In September 2025, the urea production was 5.73867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 101,800 tons (1.8%). As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month [35]. - In November, Jiangsu Linggu and Hainan Fudao are scheduled for maintenance, each affecting a production of 2,500 tons. From 2026 to 2026, multiple enterprises are planning to put new production capacity into operation, with a total planned new capacity of 5.64 million tons/year [38]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the price of small - sized Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The price of 5,500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous month. In October, the significant temperature difference between the north and south in China increased the demand for coal. As the temperature gradually dropped, the demand for coal for winter heating increased. The environmental protection restrictions on mines continued, and major conferences boosted macro - expectations, leading to a continuous increase in the thermal coal price and stronger urea production costs. At the same time, the price of liquefied natural gas increased during the month, intensifying the losses of gas - fired plants. As of October 24, the cost of fixed - bed production was 1,917 yuan/ton, the cost of water - coal slurry production was 1,502 yuan/ton, and the cost of natural gas production was 1,971 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong's data, the theoretical profit of the coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 347 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the new coal - water slurry process was 58 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the gas - fired process was - 291 yuan/ton. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [42]. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of October 24, 2025, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,600 tons. This month, the urea inventory increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. The number of days of pending orders from enterprises first decreased and then increased during the month. As the autumn fertilizer season continued to progress, the pressure on enterprises for pending orders decreased [46]. Downstream Agricultural Demand - The agricultural demand for urea in the second half of the year and the fourth quarter is generally weaker than that in the first half of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the weather has affected the corn harvest and wheat sowing, causing the agricultural demand to be scattered. As the autumn fertilizer season ends, the agricultural demand will become sporadic [49]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the operating load of factories decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start [57]. Compound Fertilizer Price - It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as sulfur, monoammonium phosphate, and ammonium chloride will rise, while the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate will remain stable. The urea price has stopped falling and stabilized. The subsequent fertilizer - preparation period is expected to be based on the price fluctuations of raw materials for procurement. Currently, the production profit is lower than that of last year. Factories are mainly finishing the production of autumn fertilizers and will purchase and reserve at low prices in the future [62][63]. Other Industrial Demands - As of October 24, 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of melamine dropped to 48.3%. The rainfall in various parts of the country this month affected the progress of terminal industries. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [67]. International Urea Market - The international urea price first decreased and then increased this month. The continuous Indian tenders provided support for the market. European countries entered the market to purchase, and the sales situation of urea in North Africa improved, with prices rising in some regions. China has exported a large amount this month, and China's export situation will still affect the international urea price [72]. Indian Tenders - On October 17, it was learned that the price of the urea tender issued by RCF on October 15 had been announced, with the lowest bid price on the east coast being $395/ton CFR. So far, there has been no change in China's urea export quota. It is estimated that China's participation in this tender will be limited, and this Indian tender price is lower than market expectations, having limited impact on the domestic urea market and causing no obvious price fluctuations [76]. Export Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the urea port inventory was 210,000 tons. Since September, the port inventory has been continuously decreasing. As the export window period ended, the port inventory has gradually been digested and is now at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There is currently no official news about changes in urea export policies. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [79].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1630 1600 30 河南 1590 1570 20 山东 1610 1570 40 山西 1500 1500 0 江苏 1610 1570 40 安徽 1590 1570 20 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1610 1590 20 山东华鲁 1630 1580 50 江苏灵谷 1640 1610 30 安徽昊源 1590 1570 20 山东05基差 -160 -151 -9 山东01基差 -190 -185 -5 河北05基差 -120 -111 -9 河北01基差 -150 -145 -5 1-5价差 72 70 2 5-9价差 -30 -34 4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5288 5407 -119 中东FOB 370.5 373.5 -3 美湾FOB 374.5 376.5 -2 埃及FOB 428.5 432.5 -4 波罗的海FOB 365 370 -5 巴西CFR 410 422.5 -13 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z00007 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by relatively high factory inventories, ample supply, and weak domestic demand that struggles to absorb high - level inventories. With agricultural demand winding down, the market will focus on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat today. The spot market prices have been rising since the weekend, with agricultural dealers actively stockpiling fertilizers but becoming more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. - The monthly average daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 18.50 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuates around 18 - 19 tons. Due to increased losses in gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With winter gas and production restrictions approaching, gas - fired daily production is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural - gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After hitting the bottom recently, urea prices have rebounded, and profits have stabilized, providing cost support for the futures [1]. - As time progresses, factory inventories are gradually being depleted after agricultural demand, but they are still slightly higher than the same period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer plants are expected to gradually start production in late November. As autumn fertilizer production nears completion, subsequent production is expected to gradually increase, and spring compound fertilizer production will gradually begin. Although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the inventory is still in an accumulation cycle, and it is expected to increase moderately. Overall, factory inventories are still higher year - on - year, supply is relatively abundant, and domestic demand is insufficient to absorb high - level inventories. Agricultural demand is gradually ending, and the focus of domestic demand is on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1647 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and finally closed flat at 1640 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of + 0.00%. The trading volume was 281,954 lots, a decrease of 4384 lots [2]. - On October 27, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Jilin Yuyuan decreased by 100, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen decreased by 18 [2]. - Spot: Since the weekend, spot market quotes have been rising continuously. Agricultural dealers are actively stockpiling fertilizers but are more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on October 27, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 19.04 tons, a decrease of 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

Group 1: Hot News - China's President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios, with a minimum of 1.5:1 in most cases and equal - volume replacement in three scenarios [2] - US CPI in September increased slightly less than expected, which may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates next week. The CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month in September and 3.0% year - on - year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [2] - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 - 26, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, soybean meal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Overseas Market Performance - Commodity futures sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.95%, precious metals 30.89%, oilseeds and oils 9.67%, soft commodities 2.65%, non - ferrous metals 22.02%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.28%, energy 3.00%, chemicals 10.74%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.66% [3] Group 4: Sector Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is presented graphically [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 17.86% annually; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have corresponding performance data [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind Commodity Index have their respective performance data [5] - Other: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have corresponding performance [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., through graphs [7]