Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

Group 1: Hot News - China's President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios, with a minimum of 1.5:1 in most cases and equal - volume replacement in three scenarios [2] - US CPI in September increased slightly less than expected, which may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates next week. The CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month in September and 3.0% year - on - year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [2] - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 - 26, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, soybean meal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Overseas Market Performance - Commodity futures sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.95%, precious metals 30.89%, oilseeds and oils 9.67%, soft commodities 2.65%, non - ferrous metals 22.02%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.28%, energy 3.00%, chemicals 10.74%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.66% [3] Group 4: Sector Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is presented graphically [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 17.86% annually; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have corresponding performance data [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind Commodity Index have their respective performance data [5] - Other: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have corresponding performance [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., through graphs [7]

1. Overnight Night Market Trends - INTERNATIONAL PRECIOUS METALS: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce, down 2.05% for the week; COMEX silver futures dropped 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce, down 3.38% for the week [4] - CRUDE OIL: The U.S. oil main contract fell 0.57% to $61.44 per barrel, up 7.51% for the week; Brent crude's main contract declined 0.57% to $64.92 per barrel, up 7.06% for the week [5] - LONDON BASE METALS: LME copper rose 0.85% to $10947 per ton, up 3.23% for the week; LME lead increased 0.30% to $2016.50 per ton, up 2.36% for the week; LME zinc edged up 0.07% to $3019.50 per ton, up 2.93% for the week; LME aluminum dropped 0.21% to $2856.50 per ton, up 2.84% for the week; LME nickel fell 0.25% to $15325 per ton, up 1.32% for the week; LME tin declined 0.34% to $35650 per ton, up 1.75% for the week [5] - DOMESTIC FUTURES: As of the close on October 24 at 23:00, domestic futures' main contracts mostly rose. Low - sulfur fuel oil, LPG, and fuel oil rose over 1%, while asphalt, coking coal, and rapeseed meal had small increases. Synthetic rubber, caustic soda, corn, and sugar slightly declined [5] 2. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [8] - The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" aims to break market barriers [8] - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27 [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes enhancing the resilience and risk - resistance of the capital market [8] - Shipping indices show an increase in export container freight rates [9] - The central bank will adjust monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate [9][10] - U.S. September CPI is slightly lower than expected, paving the way for a rate cut [10] - U.S. October PMI data shows improvement [10] - China and the U.S. held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching preliminary consensus on multiple issues [10][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia's central bank forecasts average oil prices for 2025 and 2026 [12] - India's Reliance Industries bought hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil due to concerns about supply disruptions [14] Metal Futures - China's non - ferrous metal industry had a good performance in the first three quarters [16] - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead inventories decreased, while nickel and tin inventories increased [17] - This month's estimated retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars are about 2.2 million, with a decline in both month - on - month and year - on - year terms, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may reach 60% [17] Black - Series Futures - In mid - October, steel production of key enterprises had different trends in daily output [19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with specific replacement ratios and restrictions [19][21] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices [21] - This week's total urban inventory of steel decreased [22] - Shanxi is increasing coal production to meet winter demand, with a 3.7% year - on - year increase in the first three quarters [22] Agricultural Futures - Pig - farming losses have decreased [24] - Pig and pork prices are expected to stop falling and rise slightly in the second half of the fourth quarter [25] - In the 43rd week, soybean crushing volume in oil mills exceeded expectations [25] - Imported cotton port inventory increased slightly [26] - The domestic edible vegetable oil market is expected to have stable prices, while palm oil prices may rise slightly [28] - Malaysia's October 1 - 25 palm oil exports are expected to decline 0.4% [29] 3. Financial Markets Finance - Many A - share companies released positive third - quarter reports, with some having significant profit growth [31] - Fund managers will adjust investment strategies based on third - quarter reports, focusing on technology stocks [31] - As of the end of the third quarter, social security funds held shares in 135 stocks, with new entries, increases, and decreases in positions, and increased investment in technology sectors [32] - Many A - share companies were surveyed by institutions, with technology stocks being popular [34] - Many companies distributed dividends, and some will distribute more in the future [34] - Nearly 2000 public funds' third - quarter reports show that innovation - related assets are the main allocation [34] - The market sentiment has stabilized, and the subsequent adjustment space may be limited [34] - Hong Kong stocks' "B - series" varieties are being sold by pharmaceutical fund managers, and innovation - drug funds are entering the stock - selection stage [35] Industry - A draft regulatory guideline for public fund performance comparison benchmarks may be released soon, and many funds have adjusted their benchmarks this year [36] - Banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold accumulation, and short - term gold price fluctuations may be normal [38] - Gold jewelry brands have raised prices, mainly to increase processing fees and maintain stable margins [38] - Many real - estate companies have made breakthroughs in debt restructuring [38] - As of September, China's power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [39] - The flu vaccine vaccination season has arrived, with different price trends for different vaccines [39] - Multiple paper companies will raise the price of white cardboard from November 1 [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia reached trade - related agreements [41][42] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary believes inflation will continue to decline, and the government shutdown is eroding the economy [42] - The U.S. government shutdown may last until the end of November [43] - The IMF President suggests that ASEAN economies strengthen their fundamentals and predicts that AI will affect a large proportion of jobs [43] International Stock Markets - European countries will implement winter time starting Monday, adjusting trading and data - release times [45] Bonds - As of October 24, the issuance scale of securities firms' science and technology innovation bonds this year reached 59.17 billion yuan, and it is expected to continue growing [46] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Various economic data will be released on October 27, including Japan's September corporate service price index, China's September industrial enterprise profits, etc. [48] Events - The central bank has 7000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF and 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [50] - The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will participate in a talk [50] - There are new stock subscriptions and company earnings reports [50] - Multiple important events are scheduled, such as the East Asia Cooperation Leaders' Series Meetings, the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, etc. [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ plans to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, but EIA data shows that US refinery operations have rebounded from a low level, and US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, as well as refined oil inventories. Overall, the inventory of oil products has decreased. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil exports remain high. EIA and IEA reports suggest an increase in global oil inventories and a worsening supply glut. Despite the current supply - surplus situation, crude oil prices have fallen significantly since October. Recently, due to factors such as new rounds of economic and trade consultations between China and the US, changes in the US attitude towards Russia, and the escalation of the military stand - off between the US and Venezuela, crude oil prices are expected to continue to rebound from a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting will be held on November 2. The end of the peak oil demand season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US trade uncertainties have raised concerns about oil demand. Although the market is in a supply - surplus situation, factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela military stand - off may cause oil prices to rebound from a low level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.40% to 464.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 462.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 471.3 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2089 to 41,065 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the 2026 average at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raised the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the supply glut [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, far lower than the expected increase of 1.205 million barrels and 3.67% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.147 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 1.479 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the highest level in history [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, 2.24% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.01% to 8.454 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.587 million barrels per day, 3.61% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 9.12% to 3.847 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 4.011 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. Although gasoline and diesel demand decreased, an increase in other oil products drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week-on-week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Cost-wise, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level. The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum [1] - The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand has weakened. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. Concerns about economic growth have intensified, and there are no actual anti - involution policies in the PP industry [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures - The PP2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6662 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. The position volume decreased by 10384 lots to 608100 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The drawstring is quoted at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Supply - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level [1][4] Demand - As of the week of October 24th, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons during the National Day holiday and decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons on Friday, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $760 per ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased slightly to 76.57%, but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and improvement will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. With new production capacity coming online, and no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, the cost side has strengthened. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its November quotation by 30 - 40 US dollars/ton. India announced a new anti-dumping duty on imported PVC on August 14, with an increase of about 50 US dollars/ton for the Chinese mainland. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. However, exports in September were still good, and the export orders have not significantly declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has continued to decline and remains at a near-record low level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacity has come online, and there are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet. The cost side has strengthened, and it is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,702 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,749 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,708 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.36%. The position increased by 14,264 lots to 1,227,305 lots [2]. - Basis: On October 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,708 yuan/ton. The current basis was -73 yuan/ton, strengthening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfeng are undergoing maintenance. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacity includes Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year production capacity, which has been in full production since August; Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year production capacity, which is expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year production capacity, which was put into operation in early September and is currently near full production; and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year production capacities, which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. From January to September, the commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. From January to September, the new construction area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. From January to September, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to September, the completion area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 222.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Overall, the improvement of the real estate market will take time. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day holiday, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 54.79% week-on-week, but remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 23, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week-on-week to 1.0352 million tons, a 24.87% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong has increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows an upward - trending volatility. The supply side has a lower - than - normal capacity utilization rate, and the downstream industry's capacity utilization rate has mostly increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries is at a historical low. Considering factors such as international political and economic situations and the current state of the domestic market, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 268.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month - on - month (a 0.1% decline) and an increase of 35.0 million tons year - on - year (a 15.0% increase). Shandong Shengxing, Guangzhou Petrochemical and other refineries are under maintenance [1][4]. - Demand side: This week, the capacity utilization rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The capacity utilization rate of road asphalt rose 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [1][4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 24, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Market shipment: This week, the refinery supply in East China increased, and the national shipment volume increased 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still a constraint [1]. - International situation: There will be a new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. The US has imposed sanctions on important Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - Suggestion: The basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level in recent days and is currently at a moderately high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.92% to 3,299 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,049 to 195,746 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to 51 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of asphalt dropped 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, slightly up from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less year - on - year [4].

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper price trends are generally upward due to factors such as copper being a substitute for precious metals, rigid downstream demand, and expected tightness in copper mines, but there is pressure on the upside and cautious chasing of rising prices is advised. Attention should be paid to the market's reaction after the release of recent US economic data [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing an intraday increase. The market generally expects that the upcoming US CPI data tonight will not have an excessive impact on the Fed's interest rate cuts. China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in September 2025 was 1.266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.7%. The cumulative production from January to September was 11.125 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. Copper mine disturbances limit the decline of copper prices, and the positive support from the previous Indonesian copper mine accident to the market has not been eliminated. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased this week, and the current inventory is significantly lower than last year. Smelter overhauls are still ongoing, with low output levels. Currently, long-term orders are in the initial discussion stage, and copper mine traders hold relatively few supplies. Although copper is in the peak season of "Silver October", the high copper price driven by macro - stimuli is difficult to be accepted by downstream users, resulting in a weak market trading atmosphere. After the recent price decline, the demand may improve month - on - month. The stable development of the domestic power grid and new energy provides rigid support for demand, and the global industrial demand outlook is optimistic during the Fed's interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing an intraday upward trend. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 30 yuan/ton. On October 23, 2025, the LME official price was $10,805/ton, and the spot premium was -$8/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot smelting charge (TC) was -$40.8 per dry ton, and the spot refining charge (RC) was -4.08 cents per pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 35,100 tons, a decrease of 7,778 tons from the previous period. As of October 23, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 110,300 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 short tons, an increase of 999 short tons from the previous period [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of plastics, but the plastics themselves lack upward momentum. It is expected that plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly at a low level, and new production capacity has been put into operation. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6957 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7017 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6969 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.07%. The open interest decreased by 2302 lots to 529187 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6910 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9070 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7260 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders and raw material inventories have increased, but are still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders have increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons month - on - month. On Friday, it decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780/ton month - on - month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "moderate upward" rating for the urea industry [1] Report Core View - The urea futures are rising moderately, and the spot market is gradually recovering. With the progress of farming seasons and the resumption of work in compound fertilizer plants, the market trend is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened high and moved higher on October 24, 2025, with a strong intraday performance. The market's follow - up buying sentiment was obvious, and the trading sentiment was fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] - On the supply side, the daily production is slightly decreasing, but there will be unit restarts and new unit commissions. Before natural gas curtailment, daily production will not be significantly reduced. The price of动力煤 (bituminous coal used for power generation) is rising, increasing the cost of urea production. Natural gas - based enterprises are continuously losing money, and Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down for maintenance. As the heating season approaches, the operating rate of natural gas enterprises is expected to decline [1] - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants increased their operating loads this period, with a month - on - month increase of about 3.53% but a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%. The finished product inventory is still in the destocking stage. The start - up in Northeast China may be postponed, and the growth rate of the factory operating rate may slow down [1] - Currently, it is in the inventory accumulation stage, but the inventory increase this period is slower than the previous one [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1633 yuan/ton, closed at 1642 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume was 286338 lots, a decrease of 12502 lots [2] - On October 24, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5407, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Materials) decreased by 7, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 2, Hengshui Mianma decreased by 18, and Liaoning Fertilizer (Aipu Holdings) decreased by 50 [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3327 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8622 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +691 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +779 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of +2256 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of -4124 lots [2][3] Spot - The continuous rise of futures has led to obvious follow - up buying sentiment in the market, and the trading sentiment is fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -72 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - On October 24, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.9% [9]