Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term weak adjustments. After entering September, supported by autumn fertilizers, and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tenders, there may be opportunities for a rebound [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the market opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1] - On the supply side, due to summer maintenance and military parade - related production restrictions, some upstream factories have shut down for maintenance, and the daily production has been adjusted down to about 180,000 tons. However, these are normal planned maintenance, and the impact on the market is limited under high - level production capacity [1] - On the demand side, affected by environmental protection and production restrictions during the military parade, downstream production has been restricted. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period and has continued to decline for two weeks, with limited room for further increase. The finished product inventory has been at a five - year high in the past two months and has started to decline this week, and autumn fertilizers are gradually being promoted [1] - The inventory has continued to accumulate, increasing by 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. Some regions have export orders or maintenance plans, leading to inventory reduction. In the short term, urea is in a weak adjustment, and both upstream and downstream will face maintenance and production cuts next week [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,754 yuan/ton, then opened high and closed low, with a decline in the afternoon, and finally closed at 1,746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. The trading volume was 219,096 lots, a decrease of 2,504 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,131 lots, and short positions decreased by 651 lots [2] - In the spot market, the atmosphere in the urea spot market improved today, with more low - price purchases. The spot quotation was stable with an upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,670 to 1,690 yuan/ton, with the low - end price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, today's mainstream spot market quotation increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [10] - According to Feiyitong data, on August 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 184,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 78.39% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of the domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, the operational conditions of various industries, and the performance of the financial market. It includes information on price fluctuations of various commodities, corporate production and sales data, and policy - related news, which helps investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic futures: SC crude oil and cotton rose over 1%, glass rose nearly 1%, while alumina, LPG, etc. fell over 1% [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.82%, COMEX silver futures rose 1.27% [4] - International crude oil: US oil rose 0.27%, Brent crude rose 0.31% [5] - London base metals: All rose, with LME nickel rising 1.12%, etc. [5] - International agricultural products: Prices were mixed, with US soybeans rising 0.07%, etc. [7] Important Information Macro Information - Real - estate policy: The central government promotes high - quality urban development, focusing on real - estate construction and renovation [9] - International trade: China - Canada and China - US economic and trade exchanges are ongoing, and the EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs [9][13] - Legal disputes: Cook sues Trump, and the outcome of the case is yet to be determined [10] - Monetary policy: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [11] - Geopolitical situation: Israel attacks Yemen, and the UK, France, and Germany restart sanctions on Iran [17][16] Energy and Chemical Futures - Glass: National float glass inventory decreased, and some photovoltaic glass companies may raise prices [19][22] - Oil: Russia will increase oil exports to India, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased [19] - Chemicals: Anti - dumping duties on imported phenol from multiple countries will continue for 5 years, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [21] - Natural gas: US natural gas inventory increased compared to the previous week [22] Metal Futures - South32: Driven by price increases and output growth, annual profit soared 5%, and alumina and aluminum output are expected to increase [25] - Harmony Gold: 2026 fiscal - year gold production target is 140 - 150 million ounces, and 2025 fiscal - year net profit increased by 26% [27] Black - Series Futures - Rebar: Output increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand increased for the second consecutive week [29] - Casting pig iron: Some blast furnaces in Shandong and Henan are shut down for maintenance, affecting output [29] - Coking: The average national profit per ton of coke is 55 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Feed: In July, national industrial feed output increased, and product prices decreased year - on - year [31] - Soybeans: Argentina's soybean sales volume increased, and the US 2025/2026 soybean net sales increased [33][37] - Sugar: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased [34] - Cotton: India's cotton planting area decreased by 3% [34] - Corn: The US 2025/2026 corn net sales decreased compared to the previous week [37] Financial Market Finance - A - shares: The three major indexes rebounded in a "V - shape", with a daily trading volume of 3 trillion yuan. M&A activities increased, and brokerages actively conducted research [39][41] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, with semiconductor stocks rising and pharmaceutical stocks falling [39] - Company performance: Ideal Auto's Q2 revenue and profit increased, and well - known fund managers adjusted their positions [42][41] Industry - Data industry: The National Data Bureau is deploying data industry cluster construction pilots [43] - Logistics: From January to July, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.2% year - on - year [44] - AI: The Shanghai AI Security Working Committee was established [45] - Automobile: European new - car sales increased in July, and Tesla's market share declined [46] Overseas - US economy: Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, and the eurozone economic sentiment index declined [47][48] - EU - US trade: The EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs, and the US will reduce tariffs on EU cars [50] - South Korea: The central bank maintains the benchmark interest rate and raises economic growth and inflation expectations [50] International Stock Markets - US stocks: The three major indexes rose slightly, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new closing highs [51] - European stocks: Closed mixed, affected by Nvidia's earnings and French political uncertainty [51] - Company performance: Didi's Q2 GTV and profit increased, and Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Japanese companies [52][54] Commodities - Precious metals: International precious - metal futures rose, driven by safe - haven demand [55] - Crude oil: International oil prices rose slightly, supported by a larger - than - expected decline in US crude - oil inventory [55] - Base metals: London base metals rose, but copper price increase was limited [55] - Cotton: India extends the exemption period for cotton import tariffs [56] Bonds - A - share bonds: Bond yields generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [58] - Government bonds: China issued new local government bonds in July, and Japan's 2 - year government - bond auction demand was at a record low [58] - US bonds: Yields were mixed, affected by multiple factors [59] Foreign Exchange - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank renewed the currency - swap agreement with New Zealand [60][61] - US dollar: The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies mostly rose [63] Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Data: Multiple countries will release economic data such as GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate [65] - Events: There are news conferences, corporate earnings announcements, and various industry summits [67]

Group 1: Hot News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to make important progress in building modern people - centered cities by 2030 and basically complete the construction by 2035 [3] - The Indian government extended the exemption period for cotton import tariffs from September 30, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [3] - As of the week ending August 28, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand increased for the second consecutive week. Rebar social inventory was 453.77 million tons, up 21.26 million tons (4.92% increase), and apparent demand was 204.21 million tons, up 9.41 million tons (4.83% increase) [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange added Siyang Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. as a sub - warehouse of Sichuan Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Food Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Nongken Yongxin Animal Husbandry Group Shengtang Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. as a non - group delivery warehouse for live pigs [3] - As of August 28, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 186.75 million tons, down 4.33 million tons (2.27% decrease) from last Thursday. Light soda ash inventory was 74.53 million tons, down 2.78 million tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 112.22 million tons, down 1.55 million tons. It was also down 2.06 million tons (1.09% decrease) from Monday. Soda ash supply slightly decreased this week, and manufacturer inventory decreased slightly, but it was still at a historically high level [4] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, apple, crude oil, lithium carbonate, PP [5] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals rose 26.83%, chemicals rose 12.19%, grains rose 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.29%. Other plate performances include: oilseeds and fats rose 12.07%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals rose 14.81%, and energy rose 3.13% [5][6] Group 3: Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days, including positions in agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel, and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [7] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.14 | 7.57 | 14.67 | | | SSE 50 | 1.45 | 6.65 | 10.28 | | | CSI 300 | 1.77 | 9.52 | 13.44 | | | CSI 500 | 2.17 | 12.60 | 22.45 | | | S&P 500 | 0.32 | 2.56 | 10.55 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.81 | 0.91 | 24.62 | | | German DAX | - 0.03 | - 0.11 | 20.75 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.73 | 4.28 | 7.36 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.42 | 0.92 | 12.77 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.19 | - 0.64 | - 1.04 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.09 | - 0.25 | - 1.01 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.03 | 0.02 | - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1.35 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.19 | - 7.15 | - 10.64 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.57 | 3.83 | 30.17 | | | LME Copper | 0.64 | 2.20 | 11.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.18 | - 0.30 | 15.27 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.33 | - 2.18 | - 9.78 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 11.18 | - 14.41 | [9]

Group 1: Core Data Comparison - The current port total inventory is 13763.02, a decrease of 82.18 from the previous period [1] - The current daily average port clearance volume is 318.64, a decrease of 7.10 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill imported ore inventory is 9007.19, a decrease of 58.28 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 296.1, a decrease of 1.74 from the previous period [1] - The current arrival volume is 2393.3, a decrease of 83.30 from the previous period [1] - The current domestic iron ore concentrate powder output is 39.53, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous period [1] - The current daily average molten iron output is 240.13, a decrease of 0.62 from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill operating rate is 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous period [1] - The current capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous period [1] - The current steel mill profitability rate is 63.64%, a decrease of 6.00% from the previous period [1] Group 2: Port Inventory Variety Structure - The current coarse powder inventory is 10713.16, an increase of 21.21 from the previous period [1] - The current lump ore inventory is 1653.9, a decrease of 89.91 from the previous period [1] - The current pellet inventory is 283.37, a decrease of 23.81 from the previous period [1] - The current concentrate powder inventory is 1112.59, an increase of 10.33 from the previous period [1] - The current trade ore inventory is 9061.02, a decrease of 1.31 from the previous period [1] - The current Brazilian ore inventory is 5036.76, an increase of 39.87 from the previous period [1] - The current Australian ore inventory is 5978.31, a decrease of 135.72 from the previous period [1]

【冠通研究】 震荡调整 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏强。今日尿素现货市场氛围转好，低价拿货情 况有增加。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1650-1690 元/吨，部分工厂价格上调 10 元/吨左右。基本面来看，今日上游工厂装置多发 停车检修，山西潞安、河南心连心及山西兰花均开启检修，日产数据下调至 18 万吨左右，但目前均属于正常计划内检修。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥 工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影 响，复合肥工厂连续两周出现限产减产情况，开工负荷继续下调。成品库存近 两个月位于五年同期高位水平，本周库存有去化，秋季肥逐渐开始跟进。期库 存继续累库，较上周增加 6.19 万吨，环比增加 6.05%，部分地区有出口订单或 停车检修计划，库存有所去化。今日盘面震荡回调，行情依然位于震荡区间 内，市场暂无明显驱动，向上向下空间均有限，九月初印标结果将对行情造成 一定影响，短期或震荡调整，中期有反弹布空机会。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1737 元/吨低开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals have no significant changes. Demand is at the end of the off - season, lacking upward momentum but showing resilience. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upside of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the recent news on Fed positions and subsequent interest - rate cut situations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Overseas macro: There is continued debate on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the Fed's independence has been questioned recently. A crucial vote in the US Congress next week will determine the Fed's independence [1]. - Supply: Codelco has raised its estimate of accident losses and lowered its 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories have declined to a five - year low. Smelter TC/RC fees have continued to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with an increase in new orders. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" are approaching, there is support at the bottom of the market. SHFE copper inventories have declined in the past two days and are oscillating in the low - inventory range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower, with intraday oscillation under pressure, and the closing price was 78,930 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. On August 27, 2025, the LME official price was 9,772 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.14 US cents/pound [7]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 21,200 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous period. As of August 25, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 273,800 short tons, an increase of 1,662 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on August 28, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined, with apples rising over 2%, and iron ore, corn, wire rod, and BR rubber rising over 1%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell over 3%, lithium carbonate and eggs fell over 2%, and paraxylene, live pigs, rapeseed, short - fiber, PTA, and palm oil fell over 1%. Stock index futures mostly rose, while treasury bond futures mostly declined [6] - As of 15:17 on August 28, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 2.294 billion, coking coal 2601 had an inflow of 494 million, and iron ore 2601 had an inflow of 459 million. Outflows included 4.756 billion from Shanghai gold 2510, 515 million from CSI 500 2509, and 478 million from Shanghai aluminum 2510 [8] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper opened and trended lower, with intraday shock under pressure. Overseas macro - factors involve continued speculation on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the Fed's independence is questioned. Supply - side factors include Codelco's adjustment of production targets, inventory changes, and cost factors. Demand is tepid but shows some signs of improvement. The market has no clear upward drive but has support at the bottom. The US dollar index suppresses the upside of copper prices [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, with intraday weak shock. Prices declined, and import volumes decreased. Production is expected to decline in August - September. Demand has support from downstream restocking, but the market is easily affected by industry news. The supply - side disturbance continues, and attention should be paid to market news [11][12] - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. US inventories are decreasing, but OPEC + plans to increase production in September. Saudi Aramco raised prices, and there are concerns about the US economy. EIA and IEA raised the forecast of global oil surplus, and factors such as US - India trade policies may affect the market. Consumption peak is ending, and supply - demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [13] - **Asphalt**: Supply - side factors include a decline in the asphalt开工 rate, production plan adjustments, and potential impacts on raw material costs. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and the weakening cost support from crude oil. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently [15] - **PP**: PP downstream开工率 rebounded slightly, and the enterprise开工率 is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to changes in the crude oil market. Supply has increased with new capacity, and demand is weak but may improve in the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate [16] - **Plastic**: Plastic开工率 rose, and downstream开工率 increased slightly. The cost is affected by the crude oil market. Supply has increased with new capacity, and demand is weak but may improve with the start of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. Supply - side开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 is low. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [19][21] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and closed slightly higher. Imported coal affects domestic prices, and production decreased due to environmental protection. Downstream demand is affected by environmental protection and profit factors. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22] - **Urea**: Urea opened low and trended higher. The spot market improved, and upstream factories had maintenance. Demand has industrial support but is affected by environmental protection. Inventory is at a high level. The market is expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term and may have opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [23][24]

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][4][5][6]. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Domestic Futures**: On Wednesday night, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with corn rising over 1% and many contracts such as zinc, SC crude oil, and others falling over 1% [3]. - **International Crude Oil**: International crude oil settlement prices increased, with the US WTI crude oil up 0.96% at $63.86/barrel and Brent crude up 0.75% at $67.20/barrel [4]. - **International Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.55% at $3451.80/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.22% at $38.69/ounce [5]. - **London Base Metals**: Most London base metals declined, except for tin which rose 0.91%. LME zinc fell 1.76%, LME aluminum fell 1.29%, etc. [5]. - **International Agricultural Products**: International agricultural product futures all declined, with US soybeans down 0.12%, US corn down 0.85%, etc. [6]. Important Macroeconomic News - **Macro - Economy**: In July, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, and the profit decline narrowed. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The New York Fed President hinted at possible interest - rate adjustments [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: UAE's fuel inventory changed, China's methanol port inventory increased, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, and the US had changes in oil exports, production, and inventory. South Korea may reduce naphtha imports [14][15]. - **Metal Futures**: India may lift restrictions on pension investment in gold ETFs. The new - energy vehicle retail and wholesale in China from August 1 - 24 increased year - on - year [19]. - **Black - Series Futures**: Some steel enterprises in Tangshan plan to conduct blast furnace maintenance, and Mongolia's coking coal auction had a full - scale failure [21]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased. Ukraine's wheat output may decline, and corn output may rise. Domestic and international soybean prices have different trends [23][24][25]. Financial Markets - **Stocks**: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and European stocks had different performances. Hong Kong's IPO market was strong in the first seven months. Some companies had major announcements such as acquisitions and listings [28][38][40]. - **Bonds**: Domestic bank - to - bank bond yields had mixed changes, new bond indices were released, and US bond yields fell [44][45][46]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly, and the US dollar index fell slightly [47]. Upcoming Events - There are various economic data releases and events scheduled, including central bank meetings, policy announcements, and corporate earnings reports [50][52].

Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]