早盘速递 2025/7/8 热点资讯 5. 欧盟发言人表示，欧盟在与美国就原则性协议的谈判中取得了良好的进展。欧盟将继续在7月9日的截止日期前推进美国关 税贸易谈判。我们的目标仍然是在7月9日之前达成协议。 板块表现 重点关注 燃油、纯苯、玉米、尿素、沥青 夜盘表现 -1.40 -1.20 -1.00 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.85% 贵金属, 27.45% 油脂油料, 12.25% 有色, 20.90% 软商品, 2.85% 煤焦钢矿, 13.83% 能源, 3.13% 化工, 12.77% 谷物, 1.18% 农副产品, 2.79% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also covers macro - economic news, industry policies, and corporate events, reflecting the complex and volatile nature of the current financial and economic situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.37% at $67.92 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.84% at $69.56 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold up 0.10% at $3346.40 per ounce and COMEX silver down 0.39% at $36.94 per ounce [2]. - London base metals closed down across the board, with LME zinc down 1.51% at $2683.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.31% at $33260.00 per ton, and LME copper down 0.82% at $9784.00 per ton [2]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with fuel oil up over 1% and asphalt up nearly 1%, while rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn were down nearly 1% [3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The first round of Gaza cease - fire talks in Doha ended without an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [6]. - Trump announced a 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS' "anti - US policies", and China opposed such tariff wars [6][7]. - As of July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 6.3% to 2258.04 points [7]. - The EU is making progress in tariff - trade negotiations with the US and aims to reach an agreement by July 9 [7]. - The "Magic Seas" bulk carrier sank in the Red Sea, and the Houthi armed forces claimed responsibility [8]. - The next - possible Fed chair nominee, Wash, advocated for a rate cut and said Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation [10]. - China added 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for work - relief projects to promote employment [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs maintained its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 at $56 per barrel, and OPEC + may increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [13]. - As of July 7, the MEG port inventory in East China decreased, while the benzene - ethylene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 12.85% [13]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for pure benzene futures contracts [13]. Metal Futures - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June, reaching 73.9 million ounces [15]. - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.6525 million tons, up 2.64% year - on - year and down 2.59% month - on - month [17]. Black - Series Futures - From January to May, China's cumulative coal production was 1.99 billion tons, with May's output hitting a record high [19]. - From June 30 to July 6, global iron ore shipments decreased, while Chinese port arrivals increased [19][20]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, resumed production on July 5, but its output was still below normal [19]. - As of July 7, some Tangshan steel enterprises' blast furnaces were under maintenance, affecting iron - water production [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, domestic soybean crushing reached a record high, and it is expected to remain high in July [23]. - As of July 4, domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days increased for the 8th consecutive week [23]. - As of July 4, cotton commercial inventory decreased, while palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased [23][24]. - As of July 7, the national imported soybean port inventory increased [25]. - India's minister called for a change in palm - oil import policy, and Argentina will export soybean meal to China for the first time [26]. - Pakistan's cotton production dropped sharply, hitting the textile industry [28]. - As of July 3, US soybean, corn, and wheat export inspection volumes were reported [28]. - As of July 5, Brazil's first - crop corn harvest rate was 97.2%, and the second - crop was 27.7% [28]. - As of July 6, the US soybean and corn good - rate were reported [28]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares closed mixed, with power and real - estate stocks rising, and innovation - drug and computing - power stocks falling [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose, and south - bound funds had significant net inflows [30]. - A - shares will launch specialized and innovative indices on July 21 [32]. - Quantitative trading new rules were implemented, impacting some strategies [32]. - Public funds' position - adjustment demand increased, and "discounted - share" private - placement business heated up [32]. - Jiangsu Runyang plans to complete A - share IPO by the end of 2028, and Lens Technology will list in Hong Kong on July 9 [33]. Industry - Four departments plan to have over 100,000 high - power charging facilities by 2027 [35]. - A new national standard for passenger - car braking systems will be implemented in 2026 [35]. - The first 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were fully subscribed on the first day [36]. - As of July 7, Shenzhen's second - hand housing inventory reached a new high [37]. - Wuhan will strengthen real - estate policies and promote project launches [37]. - China's shipping industry showed improved confidence in Q2 [37]. - From January to May, China's textile industry had mixed performance in output, revenue, and exports [37]. - From January to May, China's coal production hit a record high, while imports decreased [38]. - Global new ship orders decreased by 54% year - to - date, with different performances in various ship types [40]. Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce multiple trade agreements soon [41]. - Goldman Sachs believes the Fed may cut rates in September, with a lower terminal - rate forecast [41]. - The EU aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [41]. - The European Central Bank warns of increased financial - stability risks in the eurozone [41]. - Eurozone's July investor confidence and May retail sales data were reported [42]. - Germany's May industrial output showed positive growth [43]. - The UK's June housing price index had mixed performance [44]. International Stocks - US stocks closed down, with Trump's tariff announcements causing market fluctuations, while most Chinese concept stocks rose [46]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by Trump's tariff policies and corporate news [46]. - The FBI warned of a surge in "pump - and - dump" scams targeting US stock investors [46]. Commodities - International oil prices rose, and Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude price forecast [47]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, supported by economic uncertainties [47]. - London base metals closed down, with traditional metals facing demand pressure [49]. Bonds - Domestic bond yields mostly rose slightly, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [50]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue multiple batches of bonds in July [50]. - US bond yields rose due to Trump's trade policies, and Japanese long - term bonds fell [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose due to Trump's tariff threats [52][54]. Upcoming Events - The China Central Bank has 13.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase due at 09:20 [56]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest - rate decision at 12:30 and hold a press conference at 13:30 [56]. - ECB's Nagel will give a speech at 22:00, and the EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook at 24:00 [56]. - The 12th World High - Speed Rail Congress will be held from July 8 to 11, and the E - Tang Co., Ltd. will be listed on the STAR Market [56]. - Pure benzene futures and options will be listed on the DCE starting from July 8 [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].

热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普表示，计划对不同国家征收从60%到70%、以及从10%到20%不等的关税。各国将于8月1日开始支付这些关税。 2.据澎湃消息，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，毛宁表示，具体问题建议你向中方的主管部门了解。作为原则，我们希望 美方能够同中方相向而行，以实际行动维护和落实好两国元首通话的重要共识，共同推动中美经贸关系健康稳定可持续发展。 3.商务部新闻发言人表示，中美伦敦经贸会谈后，双方于近期确认了落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈 成果的具体细节。目前，双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。中方正依法依规审批符合条件的管制物项出口许可申请。 美方也采取相应行动，取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施，有关情况已向中方作了通报。 早盘速递 2025/7/7 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wi ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of international and domestic futures, important macro - economic and industry - related news, and the trends and investment outlooks of financial markets at home and abroad. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Trends - International precious metal futures rose slightly, with COMEX gold futures up 0.11% at $3346.5 per ounce (weekly gain of 1.79%) and COMEX silver futures up 0.14% at $37.135 per ounce (weekly gain of 2.1%) [2] - International oil prices declined, with the US oil main contract down 0.75% at $66.5 per barrel (weekly gain of 1.5%) and the Brent oil main contract down 0.42% at $68.51 per barrel (weekly gain of 2.56%) [3] - London base metals closed lower, with LME nickel down 1.24% at $15260 per ton (weekly gain of 0.1%), LME copper down 1.03% at $9852 per ton (weekly loss of 0.26%), and LME zinc down 0.55% at $2735.5 per ton (weekly loss of 1.57%) [3] - Most domestic futures main contracts fell, with butadiene rubber down over 2%, 20 - number rubber (NR) down over 1%, and soda ash, rubber, and fuel oil down nearly 1%. Styrene (EB), cotton, rapeseed meal, cotton yarn, and caustic soda rose slightly [3] Important News Macroeconomic News - As of July 4, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 98.02 points compared to the previous period, and the China Export Containerized Freight Composite Index fell 1.9% [5] - Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1 [6] - After the China - US London economic and trade talks, both sides confirmed details of implementing the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and consolidating the Geneva talks results. The two teams are accelerating the implementation of relevant results [6] - Maersk estimates that the average effective tariff rate for goods shipped to the US is 21%, lower than the peak of 54% before the US suspended reciprocal tariffs in April [7] - In June, the national futures trading market turnover was 739579418 lots, with a trading volume of 527934.14 billion yuan, up 28.91% and 17.25% year - on - year respectively [7] - The technical part of the China - EU electric vehicle negotiation is basically completed, pending the EU's political will [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of propylene futures and options at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and will supervise its preparations [11] - OPEC's oil production increased in June after the production - increase agreement, with Saudi Arabia having the largest increase and Iraq's production below the target. OPEC + agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August [11] Metal Futures - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association requested the government to keep the mining quota validity period at three years [13] - In June, Chile's copper exports were 150,295 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,126,625 tons. Shipments to China were 29,990 tons and 809,837 tons respectively [15] - Due to frequent train derailments in South Africa, the manganese ore reserves shipped to China in July decreased [15] Black - Series Futures - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development conducted research in Guangdong and Zhejiang, emphasizing the importance of promoting the stable and high - quality development of the real estate market [17] - In late June 2025, the national daily crude steel output was 2.75 million tons (down 0.9% month - on - month), pig iron output was 2.38 million tons (up 0.3% month - on - month), and steel output was 4.21 million tons (up 1.3% month - on - month) [17] - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory at 35 ports in China reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from the previous week [17] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The total urban inventory this week was 7.2366 million tons, up 81,400 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [20] Agricultural Product Futures - In June, the global food price index rose 0.5% month - on - month, and the global grain output in 2025 is expected to reach 2.925 billion tons, up 0.5% from the previous estimate [22] - Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 4.69% [22] - As of the week of July 4, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head [22] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, higher than the estimate [22] Financial Market Finance - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is booming, with about 200 IPO applications received, double the number at the beginning of the year [24] - The market environment now resembles that at the end of 2014, and sectors like non - ferrous metals, AI hardware, innovative drugs, games, and military industries may be the focus during the interim report season [25] - Many star private equity firms are positive about the stock market in the second half of 2025. They are optimistic about technology - related investment opportunities [25] - Last week, A - shares had a good start in July. The market is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention is paid to the interim report season [26] - As of July 6, 54 A - share listed companies disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, showing good profitability [26] - As of July 6, 688 listed companies received bank loans for stock repurchase and increase, with a total loan limit exceeding 135.86 billion yuan [26] - Well - known fund managers adjusted their positions in the medical and military sectors in the first half of the year [28] - Huadian New Energy will be subscribed for on July 7, with an expected fundraising of about 15.801 billion yuan [28] Industry - Shenzhen introduced measures to support the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry and set up a 5 - billion - yuan private equity fund [29] - As of now, the national wheat purchase has exceeded 50 million tons, and the expected new - season summer grain purchase is about 100 million tons [29] - As of the end of the first half of the year, the total market value of public REITs exceeded 200 billion yuan, and most products had positive returns [29] - Guangdong issued a guidance on resolving historical issues of real estate registration on state - owned construction land [30] - The Hangzhou Bay Embodied Intelligence Innovation Center was launched, simulating six types of industrial scenarios [31] - Chongqing issued policies to support the high - quality development of the science and technology film and television industry, with subsidies of up to 10 million yuan [31] - In the past month, the prices of the white - feather broiler industry chain have dropped significantly [31] Overseas - The 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit opened in Rio de Janeiro, covering six major topics [32] - Putin proposed building an independent settlement and custody system and expanding local - currency settlement within BRICS [32] - Musk said his new party will participate in elections next year [33] - South Korea's special inspection team requested the court to detain former President Yoon Suk - yeol [35] - In June, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight economic recovery [35] International Stock Markets - CFRA Research raised the target price of the S&P 500 index, expecting it to reach 6850 points in 12 months [36] - US stock funds had a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, but Bank of America warns of a bubble risk in the US stock market [36] - After Musk announced the new party, Azoria postponed the listing of its Tesla ETF [36] - Jane Street Group was banned from the Indian market, and 48.4 billion Indian rupees (about 4 billion yuan) of illegal income will be confiscated [36] Commodities - In the first half of the year, the national futures market was active, with double - digit growth in trading volume. Gold led the commodity futures market, and precious metals accounted for 17.61% of the national market turnover [37] Bonds - Japan's International Cooperation Agency will issue "Africa・TICAD Bonds" in August, with a total issuance of about 23 billion yen for African infrastructure and education [39] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's June foreign exchange reserves, Germany's May industrial output, etc. [41] - Events include 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expiring in the Chinese central bank's open market, and the implementation of the rules for program trading in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges on July 7 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The passage of the "Great Beauty" Act may serve as a relay for the "anti-involution" action, further boosting commodity prices. It can be observed from both macro - aggregate and structural - variety dimensions. The act will have different impacts on the economy, inflation, and various commodity prices in the short and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Content Event Summary - On July 4, 2025, US President Trump signed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill into law. The bill passed the House of Representatives on July 3 with 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was approved by the Senate on July 1. It is a landmark legislative agenda after Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, covering corporate tax cuts, personal and family tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, compression of Medicaid, and cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1] Impact on the Macro - Aggregate - Globally, the "Great Beauty" Act's measures such as raising the debt ceiling and corporate tax cuts will boost US economic growth and inflation in the short term but damage US credit and increase the possibility of stagflation in the long term. It will also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Asset prices will show a weak dollar, rising US Treasury yields and US stocks, and commodities will benefit in the short term. Domestically, the act is expected to support the rebound of commodity prices [2] Impact on Structural Varieties - **Gold**: Benefited from short - term dollar weakness and long - term US credit weakening, but the slowdown of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations weakens the increase in gold prices [4] - **New - energy - related Commodities**: Measures like abolishing new - energy tax credits in the act will hit the terminal demand of the new - energy industry, reducing the industrial demand for silver, copper, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. [4] - **Traditional Energy (Crude Oil)**: It will benefit in the short term but face long - term supply increases due to policies in the act, showing a short - term positive and long - term negative impact [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The impact is less than that on industrial products. The cut to the SNAP will suppress short - term consumer demand and indirectly reduce the demand for agricultural products [4]

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜先扬后抑,宏观来看,本周国际市场地缘冲突为主要矛盾,伊以冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,原油价格上涨助推全球通货膨胀速 | | | | | 度,美元指数反弹,压制了有色市场的上涨空间,周三美联储议息仍按兵不动。预计今年仍降息两次共50个基点,目前市场关注伊朗是否 | | | | | 封锁霍尔木兹海峡。若其真正封锁,将对全球经济造成冲击。供给方面,截至2025年6月20日,现货租炼带为-43.70美元/于吨,现货精炼 | | | | | 费为-4.36美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强,库存端全球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜 | | | | | 太幅去化，美铜依然在快速赛库，国内目前银去化幅度较缓。主要系建低净货为主。需求方面，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万 | | | | | 吨,相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨,涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济不确定性的 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 04 日 热点品种 热卷： 今日热卷收盘报 3201 元/吨，早盘受螺纹限产传闻带动冲高，午盘因现货疲软回 落，午后窄幅震荡，较前一交易日涨 8 元/吨，涨幅 0.25%，呈现"高开低走后企 稳" 走势。日内成交量 62.37 万手，持仓量 158 万手，资金活跃度弱于螺纹钢。 供应端，钢厂复产提速，供应压力渐显。本周热卷钢厂开工率环比提升 0.3%至 82.5%，鞍钢、本钢检修计划集中在 6 月末收尾，7 月产量预计延续增长。需求 端，制造业淡季深化，终端采购谨慎。7 月进入车企"去库存季"，经销商库存 系数升至 1.8，警戒线为 1.5，叠加新能源车补贴退坡传闻，热卷板材采购量环 比降 12%。受房地产新开工低迷拖累，工程机械订单同比降 8.6%，中厚板类热卷 需求持续萎缩，仅空调、冰箱等因"以旧换新"有少量补库，但实际规模有限。 现货方面，全国热卷现货均价 3213 元/吨，多地日内仅有 10-20 元小涨，终端 "买涨不买跌"特征弱化， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market focused on Iran's retaliatory actions, which increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, Trump's statements and Iran's weak retaliatory actions and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down the geopolitical risks and alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Still, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation needs attention [1] - Fundamentally, crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level, and OPEC+ production increases have fallen short of expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in crude oil supply - demand. But the OPEC+ meeting is about to discuss accelerating production increases, and US crude oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Lightly buy crude oil put options. With the cooling of Middle East geopolitical risks, the OPEC+ meeting approaching to discuss accelerating production increases, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, cautious operation is advised [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.04% to 503.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 502.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 509.2 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1408 to 25655 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowered the 2026 US crude oil production forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raised the 2025 global oil inventory increase from 4,000 barrels per day to 8,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts by 20,000 barrels per day to 720,000 and 740,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - On the evening of July 2, US EIA data showed that for the week ending June 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.809 million barrels), 9.30% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels (expected to decrease by 236,000 barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 1.71 million barrels (expected to decrease by 960,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.493 million barrels [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's April crude oil production was raised by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in Saudi production. US crude oil production in the week ending June 27 decreased by 200 barrels per day to 13.433 million barrels per day, 198,000 barrels per day lower than the record high in early December last year [4] - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.288 million barrels per day, but decreased by 2.93% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 10.82% to 8.64 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.199 million barrels per day, a 0.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 6.56% to 4.043 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.74 million barrels per day, a 0.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The large decrease in gasoline demand led to a 0.13% decrease in US crude oil product single - week supply [4]