Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the aquaculture industry chain is "oscillating with a slight upward trend" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly upward trend [1] - Corn is expected to show a slow upward trend in the new year, and there are opportunities to buy on dips after the phased supply pressure eases [1] - For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [2] - For the far - month contracts of live pigs, it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The producer price remains high with limited movement, and the consumer price follows the producer price. The market shows a "price stability under supply - demand stalemate" feature, but there are signs of stronger price support. On January 13, CCOFCO will conduct a two - way bidding transaction for 30,000 tons of domestic soybeans [1] Corn - After the New Year's Day, the supply of corn is still limited, but CCOFCO's weekly auction volume has increased to one million tons. The grain - selling progress in the Northeast has accelerated, and the remaining grain has decreased. Local deep - processing enterprises have slightly raised prices for purchases, and multi - channel supply has effectively supplemented the market. Corn is expected to show a slow upward trend [1] Eggs - In December, the inventory of laying hens decreased to 1.295 billion. The young - dominated structure with over 80% in the main production stage makes it difficult to eliminate production capacity. There is still great resistance to elimination in the future. Without the egg price falling below the feed cost, the industry lacks the motivation to clear production capacity actively [2] Live Pigs - In 2025, the actual total output of domestic pig - breeding enterprises increased steadily, reaching 155.79 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The actual output showed significant pre - and post - festival differences and seasonal characteristics. The third - party data shows that the reduction of pig production capacity has accelerated significantly, indicating an upward price expectation for far - month contracts [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the cotton textile industry chain lies in the mismatch between the tightening supply - side expectations and the actual weak demand on the demand - side, leading to uncertainty in the subsequent market trend. Cotton prices are expected to continue to adjust downward, with a relatively limited downside space. For sugar, the basis between the futures and spot markets has basically been repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month has significant supply pressure, with weak short - term upward momentum, and there may be more imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the short - term demand pull from the double - festival stocking can be noted [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The core contradiction in the cotton textile industry chain determines the uncertainty of market trends. There's no new news about the reduction of cotton planting and production in Xinjiang. With the increasing wait - and - see sentiment in the downstream market and the year - end payment collection pressure, it's difficult for yarn prices to rise, and it's hard to give a strong positive feedback to the upstream. Internationally, the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the short - term interest - rate cut expectation by the Fed bring pressure, but the expected reduction in Brazil's production, the worsening drought in the US cotton - growing areas, and the price difference advantage of US cotton at low levels make it difficult for prices to decline further. Cotton prices may adjust next week, with support around the 20 - day line [1] Sugar - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills have started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The amount of crushed sugarcane is 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production is 5.6297 million tons with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar after tax is 4,008 yuan/ton within the quota and 5,090 yuan/ton outside the quota, with corresponding estimated profits of 1,512 yuan/ton and 430 yuan/ton compared to the Rizhao white - sugar spot price. The basis between the futures and spot markets has basically been repaired, and the near - month has large supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, and attention should be paid to the short - term demand pull from the double - festival stocking, with the possibility of buying at low prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate. The current situation shows an oversupply of crude oil, but geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may impact the price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1 [4]. - During the off - peak season of crude oil demand, EIA data indicates that U.S. crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased more than expected, leading to an overall increase in oil product inventory. U.S. crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of U.S. rigs continued to rise slightly [4]. - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may raise tariffs on Indian products. Reliance Industries stated that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any Russian oil in the past three weeks and does not expect any Russian crude oil deliveries in January [4]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. The market still worries about crude oil demand as the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. Middle East exports have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high, resulting in an oversupply of crude oil [4]. - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. Energy Secretary declared that the U.S. will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. Currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [4]. - The unrest in Iran has continued to escalate, with the domestic internet cut off. Trump threatened to interfere in Iran again. The situation in Iran should be monitored as its crude oil production is relatively large. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations have not made further progress, and Trump passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [4]. 3.2 Oil Price Trend - Oil prices first declined and then rebounded. The statement from Trump about Venezuelan oil transfer and U.S. control measures led to a weak and volatile crude oil price. Subsequently, with the escalation of the situation in Iran and the U.S. seizure of oil tankers, the crude oil price rebounded [9]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 2.8481 million barrels per day, and its production in November 2025 decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.848 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production cuts in Iraq and Iran [14]. - OPEC+'s crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 4.306 million barrels per day [14]. - U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 1.3811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 245,000 barrels month - on - month to 413.5 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week of September 30, 2022, and increasing for 24 consecutive weeks [14]. 3.4 U.S. Economic Data - On the evening of the 9th, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non - farm payrolls in the U.S. in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The total number of non - farm payrolls in October and November was revised down by 76,000. After the release of the non - farm data, the swap market believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January was zero [17]. 3.5 Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the U.S. - The crack spread of U.S. gasoline increased by $1.5 per barrel, while that of European gasoline decreased by $2.0 per barrel. The crack spread of U.S. diesel increased by $2.0 per barrel, while that of European diesel decreased by $1.5 per barrel [27]. 3.6 U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 1.9871 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%, changing from being higher than the same period last year to being lower. Among them, the weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 4.59% to 817,000 barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 868,800 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.49%. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 5.45% to 319,500 barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 362,900 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.25%. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 0.77% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [33]. 3.7 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that as of the week of January 2, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and was 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory increased by 7.702 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 3.186 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 5.594 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 2.109 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 728,000 barrels. Overall, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventory increased more than expected, resulting in a continued increase in the overall oil product inventory [42]. 3.8 Geopolitical Risks - **Iran Situation**: Trump threatened to interfere again, and the Iranian parliament speaker warned the U.S. of retaliation. Trump is considering potential measures against Iran, and the Iranian president is willing to meet with protest groups. 111 Iranian security personnel have died in the recent unrest [48]. - **South American Situation**: Trump cancelled the planned second - wave attack on Venezuela and will meet with the Colombian president in early February. Venezuela and the U.S. have initiated a "exploratory diplomatic" process. Trump pressured large oil companies to invest $100 billion in Venezuela, and Venezuela has provided 30 million barrels of oil to the U.S. The Venezuelan acting president vowed to rescue Maduro and his wife [48]. - **Russia - Ukraine Situation**: In retaliation for the attack on Putin's residence, Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the Ukraine situation on the 12th [48].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the iron ore industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a gradually strengthening trend with oscillations. The supply side has new shipments starting to decline, the demand side is slightly recovering, and although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below, maintaining an overall upward - trending and oscillating state [4]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main iron ore futures contract oscillated slightly stronger, closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.98%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 655,000 lots, and the sunk funds were 11.849 billion yuan. The short - term oscillation was slightly stronger, and it was necessary to pay attention to the test near the previous high [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 833, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 708. The swap's main contract was at 109.2 (+0.9) US dollars/ton, and both spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 867.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 44.7 yuan/ton, which slightly widened. The iron ore 1 - 5 spread was 41.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 20.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure and a positive basis, with limited downside and short - term continued oscillation on the strong side [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: After the year - end shipping rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions weakened simultaneously. Although the current arrival volume increased month - on - month, the previous high shipments were expected to support high arrival volumes, and there were expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance and复产, the steel mill profitability rate slightly recovered, and the restocking gradually started but was still slow. There was still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing congestion increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average, and the release of restocking demand was still slow [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: In the first quarter, policy expectations were gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI in December rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The national subsidy policy for 2026 was released, with certain optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early - batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the disbursement and use of various funds. Recently, multiple major infrastructure projects were approved or approved, with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments not fully distributed in October, the investment side was expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - **Overseas**: Trump might announce the nomination for the new Fed Chairman in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett was still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path might be faster in the next one to two years [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 一、市场行情回顾 2，现货市场：稳中震荡。企业装置开停并存，河南金山恢复运行，河南中 源三期检修，综合供应高位徘徊。下游企业采购积极性不佳，对高价抵触，维持 低价需采购。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 11 元/吨。 需求方面，本周纯碱企业出货量 58.92 万吨，环比下降 18.99%；纯碱整体 出货率为 78.18%，环比-26.15%。纯碱下游需求一般，消耗库存、低价采购为主。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 二、基本面数据 1 供应方面，截止 1 月 8 日，国内纯碱产量 75.36 万吨，环比+5.65 万吨，涨 幅 8.11%。其中，轻碱产量 34.91 万吨，环比+2.30 万吨；重碱产量 40.45 万吨， 环比+3.35 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.39%，上周 79.96%，环比+4.43%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 90.41%，环比+11.20%；联产产能利用率 74.11%，环比+1.33%。15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量增仓 11840 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 957421 手。全天增仓震荡偏强，均线来看站上 5 日，20 日均线，最低 3141，最高 3174，收于 3165 元/吨，上涨 19 元/吨，涨幅 0.60%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3310 元/吨，相 比上一交易日上涨 20 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 145 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面冬 储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 8 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 2.82 万吨至 191.04 万吨，连续四周回升，公历同比下降 8.37 万吨，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高 炉开工率 79.31%，环比上周增加 0.37 个百分点，同比去年增加 2.13 个百分 点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 86.04%，环比上周增加 0.78 个百分点，同比去年 增加 1.80 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 37.66%，环比上周减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term rebound in the coke market, with a "low - buying" approach [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policies. The overall supply - demand is weak, but the short - term demand is boosted due to the seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills and the increase in hot metal production. Considering factors like interest - rate cut expectations and production - cut news, the coke is expected to continue its short - term rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis 3.1.1 Coke Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 6.04% month - on - month to 86.07 million tons, the inventory of steel mills increased by 0.27% to 645.73 million tons, the port inventory rose to 249.1 million tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 2.22 million tons to 980.9 million tons, reaching a 3 - month high with a year - on - year decline of over 1% [1] 3.1.2 Profit - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 45 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 30 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 17 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 86 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 9 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.37% to 79.31%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.78% to 86.04%, the steel mill profitability decreased by 0.44% to 37.66%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to increase by 2.07 million tons to 229.5 million tons, reaching a one - month high, a year - on - year increase of 5.13 million tons or 2.29% [1] 3.1.4 Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines continued to increase slightly, the port inventory increased by 551.96 million tons, the coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises increased to 1071.68 million tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills decreased by 797.73 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2716.37 million tons, reaching a 9 - month high with a year - on - year decline of over 15% [2] 3.1.5 News - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Dengfeng Xingyu Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for rectification. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand. The National Commerce Work Conference announced the optimization of the policy for trading in old consumer goods for new ones in 2026 [2] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures Market - The 05 coke contract opened at 1760.5, closed at 1770, with an intraday low of 1745. It showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, added 922 lots, and is expected to continue its short - term rebound. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure near the previous high [3][6] 3.2.2 Spot Market - On the 8th, the port coke spot market was stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average, with the price of quasi - first - grade coke at 1480 yuan/ton and first - grade coke at 1580 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term shock is on the strong side [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of glass is concentrated and shrinks, improving the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with the positive macro - expectations, the price may maintain a short - term shock and run strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3) Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened high and went low, with intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term signal of continued shock on the strong side. The intraday pressure is near the 40/60 weekly moving averages, and the support is near the 40 daily moving averages. The trading volume decreased by 151,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 285 lots. The intraday high was 1149, the low was 1119, and the closing price was 1143, down 1 yuan/ton (0.09% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In the North China region, market sentiment declined, and the price center of some specifications slightly moved down; in the East China market, the center moved up, but the trading slowed down; in the Central China market, the price remained stable, and the shipping sentiment weakened compared with last week; in the South China market, individual prices were raised, with rigid demand purchases and relatively good shipping [1] - **Basis**: The North China spot price is 1020, and the basis is - 123 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%. The 1000 - ton/day design capacity of the Chenzhou No. 1 line of Hunan Qibin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to be shut down for cold - repair today, and the 520 - ton/day design capacity of Yunnan Diankai Energy - Saving Technology Co., Ltd. stopped feeding last night, with further contraction in output expected [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million weight boxes (2.37% month - on - month decrease) and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend. Most regions are driven by sales policies, with improved market sentiment and favorable boosts from capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches and decreases, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Currently, engineering orders are gradually winding up, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke as fuel are also in a loss state, accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises. Six glass production lines were shut down for cold - repair before New Year's Day, and three more production lines were cold - repaired last week, further shrinking the supply. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability both continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand has not improved [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is cautiously bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. Anti-involution policies still hold potential, offering strong support at the lower end. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year-on-year figure remains strong. It's normal for demand to dip slightly in the off-season. The warming sentiment for winter storage may stimulate a wave of demand. In terms of cost, the strength of coking coal and coke, along with the sharp rise in iron ore prices, provide strong cost support. Despite the relatively high total inventory exerting some pressure, the hot-rolled coil market first saw a significant upward breakthrough, followed by two days of adjustment, then stabilized and strengthened near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased its open interest by 10,408 lots and had a trading volume of 408,729 lots, which was a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,289 yuan, and the high was 3,320 yuan. It showed a bullish trend with increased open interest during the day, standing above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages. It closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -21 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2]. 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Supply**: As of January 8, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it rose by 16,200 tons. Production has been rising for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of some steel mills' hot metal from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance. The subsequent upward momentum needs to be monitored [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand declined slightly, but year-on-year, it rose by 72,500 tons, indicating that demand still has resilience [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons on a weekly basis (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, and the inventory still exerts pressure on prices [3]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involution competition has been listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. 市场驱动因素分析 (Market Driving Factor Analysis) - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5].