早盘速递 2025/4/25 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 上证50 | 0.03 0.25 | -1.15 -0.39 | -1.63 -1.10 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.07 | -2.65 | -3.83 | | | | 中证500 | -0.52 | -4.30 | -2.09 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 2.03 | -2.26 | -6.75 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.74 | -5.23 | 9.22 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.47 | -0.45 | 10.83 | | | | 日经225 | 0.49 | -1.62 | -12.17 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.05 | -2.04 | 2.87 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | -0.09 | 0.75 | -0.22 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | -0.11 | 0 ...

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，能源化工品多数下跌，苯乙烯跌 1.82%， 玻璃跌 1.05%，原油涨 1%。黑色系普遍下跌，铁矿石跌 1.11%。农产品涨跌不 一。基本金属期货夜盘普遍收涨，沪锌涨 1.44%，沪锡涨 1.30%，沪铅涨 0.77%， 沪铝涨 0.25%，氧化铝涨 0.21%，不锈钢涨 0.20%，沪镍涨 0.19%，沪铜涨 0.14%。沪金涨 1.02%，沪银涨 0.33%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.04%报 3361.30 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.01%报 33.87 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.80%，报 62.77 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约涨 0.57%，报 66.5 美元/桶。 【宏观资讯】 1. 央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025 年 4 月 25 日（周五），中国 人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 24 日 热点品种 油脂： 今日油脂板块集体上涨，棕榈油 09 合约高开震荡，窄幅运行，涨幅 0.98%；豆 油增仓上行，收盘跌幅 0.59%；菜油跌幅 0.45%。国际方面，马来西亚将维持 5 月棕榈油出口关税为 10%但下调了出口价格，利于刺激出口，据检验机构 Amspec 数据，四月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量环比上月同期增加 18.53%，但同期产量增加 19.88%或致四月马来西亚棕榈油延续累库。印度方面，由于棕榈油价格下跌且低 于豆油，印度精炼厂扩大采购补充库存，进口需求继续好转。豆油国际上仍存生 物柴油政策需求提振。国内方面，棕榈油进口利润倒挂幅度延续收窄，新增 6 月、8月两条远期买船，短期供需双弱，库存周度数据38.44万吨，环比增加3.58%， 小幅累库但仍处于较低水平。豆油方面，压榨厂周度开工率回升至 36.98%，环 比增加 9.33 个百分点，豆油周度产量 24.99 万吨，环比增加 33.72%；需求方面 周度成交量 ...

制作日期：2025年4月24日 【策略分析】 塑料期价/05基差逢高做空 大庆石化LLDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水 平。农膜需求下降加速，PE下游开工率环比略有回落，农膜原料库存和农膜订单继续下降，尤其是 农膜订单下降幅度较大，农膜旺季进入尾声，包装膜订单转而小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍处于 近年同期偏低位水平。近期石化去库速度一般，石化库存仍处于近年同期偏低水平。美国加征关税 不利于塑料下游制品出口同时聚乙烯上游乙烷进口受限。哈萨克斯坦能源部长宣称石油产量水平是 由国家利益决定的，不是OPEC+，加上有消息人士称，几个欧佩克+成员国希望在5月5日的会议上批 准6月份再次加快石油增产。，原油价格高位回落。供应上，新增产能万华化学、内蒙古宝丰2#、埃 克森美孚惠州一期投产，内蒙宝丰3#3月份新近投产，山东新时代线性推迟至4月份投产，近日部分 检修装置重启开车，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订单生产为主，地膜进入旺季尾声，下游其他需求 有望继续恢复，3月制造业PMI上升，只是目前新单跟进缓慢，下游开工提升幅度不及预期，对高价 原料购买谨慎，石化去库放缓，市场信心不足， ...

Group 1: Hot News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US President's statement about potentially significantly reducing tariffs on China and the White House's claim of progress in China-US trade agreement negotiations, stating that China is reluctant but not afraid of a tariff war, and the US should stop threats and engage in dialogue on an equal, respectful, and reciprocal basis [2] - After a 17% increase over 9 trading days, the gold market underwent a major adjustment. On April 23, the Shanghai spot gold price dropped nearly 5%, and the gold near - month call option contract that soared nearly 10 - fold the previous day tumbled over 90%. The sharp fluctuations in gold prices drove the trading volumes of gold futures and options markets to record highs [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts that tariff hikes in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP. If the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds current forecasts, the global debt level could exceed 117% of GDP by 2027 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the trading on April 25 (i.e., the night session on April 24), the trading fee for the gold futures AU2506 contract will be adjusted to 20 yuan per lot, and the intraday flat - today trading fee will also be 20 yuan per lot [2] - Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 244,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 770,000 barrels. US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 3.549 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.46 million barrels per day, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 468,000 barrels to 397.5 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [3] Group 2: Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, coke, lithium carbonate, crude oil, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night - Session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors shows that the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.79%, the precious metals sector rose 29.87%, the oilseeds and fats sector rose 12.55%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.93%, the non - ferrous metals sector rose 18.57%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 13.63%, the energy sector rose 2.47%, the chemical sector rose 12.43%, the grain sector rose 1.91%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.86% [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.10%, the SSE 50 dropped 0.29%, the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the CSI 500 rose 0.19%, the S&P 500 rose 1.67%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.37%, the German DAX rose 3.14%, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.89%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.90% [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.17%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.13%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures dropped 0.04% [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index remained unchanged, WTI crude oil dropped 2.14%, London spot gold dropped 2.71%, LME copper remained unchanged, and the Wind Commodity Index dropped 3.59% [7] - In the other category, the US Dollar Index rose 0.94%, and the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of domestic and international commodities, futures, and stocks, along with important macro - level news and policy updates. It also includes data on various industries such as energy, metals, agriculture, finance, real estate, and international economic indicators, reflecting the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial markets. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures night - session closed generally higher, with most energy and chemical products rising, but some like crude oil falling. Black - series all rose, agricultural products mostly rose, and basic metals had mixed performance. For example, soda ash rose 1.33%, and coke rose 1.82% [2][62]. - International oil prices weakened, with concerns about OPEC+ increasing production and global economic uncertainty. The US crude oil main contract fell 2.18%, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.97% [2]. - International precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 3.45%, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.01% [3]. - CBOT agricultural product futures main contracts mostly fell, except for soybeans which rose 0.53% [3]. - London basic metals mostly rose, with LME aluminum rising 2.22% [3]. Important News - **Macro News** - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will strengthen the carbon - emission trading market, ensuring new - entrant training and cracking down on data fraud [7]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for the US to stop threats and engage in equal - footing dialogue [7]. - The US Middle - East envoy will visit Russia for Ukraine - related talks [7]. - Trump stated he had no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary reaffirmed the strong - dollar policy and called for international financial system re - balancing [8]. - US April PMI data showed mixed trends, with service PMI at a 2 - month low and manufacturing PMI at a 2 - month high [8]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic uncertainty due to tariffs [12]. - Trump criticized Zelensky's remarks on Crimea as harmful to peace talks [13]. - Congo (Kinshasa) and the rebel group "M23 Movement" expressed hope for a cease - fire [14]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures** - UAE's Fujairah port's refined - oil inventory decreased to a four - week low, with different trends for light, medium, and heavy fractions [16]. - China's methanol port inventory decreased, with both East and South China regions de - stocking [16]. - Japan's commercial crude - oil inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased [16]. - Some OPEC+ members may propose accelerating oil production in June [19]. - US EIA data showed a decrease in crude - oil exports and production, and an increase in commercial inventory [19]. - Kazakhstan may prioritize national interests over OPEC+ in oil - production decisions [19]. - **Metal Futures** - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted margin levels and price - limit ranges for gold and silver contracts [21]. - Peru's Antamina copper mine had an accident, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and investigation [21]. - The passenger - car market in China showed growth in April 1 - 20 sales compared to last year but a decline compared to last month [21]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees for the AU2506 gold - futures contract [24]. - **Black - series Futures** - In March 2025, global crude - steel production increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with China, India, and the US showing different trends [26]. - In mid - April, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 5.6% month - on - month [26]. - **Agricultural Product Futures** - India's palm - oil imports are expected to increase from May to September [28]. - Corn - starch enterprise inventory increased slightly, with a 0.29% weekly increase [28]. - China's pig prices rose 0.7% in the third week of April after 10 weeks of decline [28]. - Argentina's soybean harvest may accelerate due to dry conditions, with an expected yield of 4860 tons [31]. - Brazil's April soybean export forecast was adjusted down to 1430 tons, while the soybean - meal export forecast remained unchanged [32]. - The expected US soybean export net sales for 2024/25 and 2025/26 were estimated [33]. Financial Market - **Finance** - By the end of Q1, 162 public - fund institutions managed a total of 31.05 trillion yuan, with the top 10 fund companies named. The number of active - equity fund managers with over 100 million yuan in management decreased [35]. - In Q1 2024, public funds had a profit of 2528.54 billion yuan, a more than 10 - fold increase year - on - year [35]. - Shandong Feiyin Payment Information Technology Co., Ltd. cancelled its payment license, and the number of licensed payment institutions decreased to 170 [35]. - **Real Estate** - Xiamen optimized its housing - expropriation compensation policy, allowing house - tickets for second - hand housing and offering a 5% bonus for new - house purchases within 6 months [38]. - Qingdao released its 2025 housing - development plan, covering multiple aspects such as housing supply and renovation [38]. - Zhengzhou proposed to adjust the upper - age limit for housing - provident - fund loans [38]. - **Industry** - In Q1, domestic tourism had a 26.4% increase in trips and an 18.6% increase in spending [39]. - The National Robotics Standardization Technical Committee and the International Starlink Alliance signed a cooperation agreement for robot standardization [39]. - India imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping tax on Chinese aniline [40]. - **Overseas** - The Fed's Beige Book showed little economic change but high trade - policy uncertainty [41]. - The US President may exempt some tariffs for automakers and steel and aluminum [44]. - The US State Department will implement a restructuring plan, cutting 15% of domestic staff and closing 132 offices [44]. - In February, EU exports to the US increased by 22.4%, and imports from the US increased by 2.4% [44]. - The IMF predicted that tariff hikes would increase global public - debt - to - GDP ratio [44]. - April PMI data for various countries showed different economic trends, with India having high - growth PMIs [45]. - **International Stock Market** - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.93% [52]. - Apple and Meta were fined 500 million euros and 200 million euros respectively by the EU [53]. - Musk will focus more on Tesla in May [54]. - Intel may cut over 20% of its staff and participated in the Shanghai Auto Show [57]. - Many companies released their financial reports, with different profit and revenue performances [57]. - **Commodities** - Similar to the overnight market trends, domestic commodity futures had mixed results, and there were policy and event updates such as copper - mine accidents and OPEC+ production - increase discussions [62]. - **Bonds** - Treasury - bond futures fell, and bond yields generally rose. The inter - bank market had loose funds [72]. - Some bonds will be fully redeemed, and some companies had negative credit events [72]. - **Foreign Exchange** - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 190 basis points at 16:30 on Wednesday, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 42 basis points [73].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 23 日 热点品种 原油： 全球贸易战最恐慌时段过去，特朗普 4 月 17 日表示，美国将与中国在"未来三 到四周内"达成贸易协议，不希望看到针对中国的关税进一步提高。美国正在于 日韩澳印等国洽谈贸易协议。加上美国制裁伊朗原油出口（美国财政部制裁购买 伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零）及 OPEC+补偿 性减产规模小幅扩大，特朗普仍强调美联储应该降息，但明确表示无意解雇美联 储主席鲍威尔。原油价格上涨，但中美贸易战继续，而且美国只是将对等关税暂 缓，最新的 EIA 月报将 2025 年全球原油需求增速下调 40 万桶/日至 90 万桶/日， 将 2026 年全球原油需求增速预期下调 10 万桶/日至 100 万桶/日。IMF 基于截至 4 月 4 日公布的关税措施的参考预测，全球经济增长率将在 2025 年降至 2.8%， 在 2026 年降至 3%，显著低于今年 1 月预测的两年均为 3.3%。全球贸易战对经济 的伤害 ...

【冠通研究】 震荡整理，阶段性需求或助推反弹 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 23 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约日内高开低走，反弹不顺畅。现货市场价格窄幅波动，虽两日 期货有反弹迹象，但市场需求跟进不提供动能支撑。供应端，日产窄幅波动，本 周上游工厂检修计划多于复产计划，尿素日产预计继续上行。需求端，下游接货 力度不足，市场交投情绪并不受期货端口刺激，农需方面，预计下月将有逢低备 货情况。复合肥工厂拿货依旧不温不火，成品降价吸单，高价成交不畅，后续对 尿素需求增量有限。东北地区进入扫尾阶段，供给压制下，价格难有大幅提升空 间。本期库存累库幅度较大，映射下游需求传导不畅。整体来说，尿素需求阶段 性将有增加，盘面有反弹迹象，但上升空间有限，关注上方 1830 元/吨阻力位置。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1789 元/ ...

热点资讯 早盘速递 2025/4/23 类别 名称 日涨跌幅% 月内涨跌幅% 年内涨跌幅（%） 上证指数 0.25 -1.08 -1.55 上证50 0.14 -0.34 -1.05 沪深300 -0.02 -2.66 -3.84 中证500 -0.32 -3.99 -1.77 标普500 2.51 -5.78 -10.10 恒生指数 0.78 -6.74 7.49 德国DAX 0.41 -3.93 6.95 日经225 -0.17 -3.92 -14.22 英国富时100 0.64 -2.96 1.90 10年期国债期货 0.17 1.02 0.04 5年期国债期货 0.07 0.50 -0.35 2年期国债期货 0.01 0.01 -0.56 CRB商品指数 1.33 -3.88 0.20 WTI原油 1.36 -10.50 -11.10 伦敦现货金 0.00 9.63 30.47 LME铜 1.80 -3.67 6.52 Wind商品指数 2.34 10.75 20.79 美元指数 0.00 -5.61 -9.34 CBOE波动率 0.00 51.80 94.93 权益 固收类 商品类 其他 大类资产表 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/23 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，能源化工品多数上涨，原油涨 2.15%，纯 碱涨 1.73%，燃油涨 1.62%，低硫燃料油涨 1.32%，玻璃涨 1.15%，沥青涨 1.1%。 黑色系多数下跌，焦炭跌近 1%。农产品普遍上涨，菜粕涨 1.25%，豆一涨近 1%。 基本金属涨跌不一，沪铜涨 0.86%，氧化铝涨 0.60%，沪锌涨 0.18%，沪镍涨 0.15%，不锈钢涨 0.04%，沪锡跌 0.68%，沪铅跌 0.74%。沪金收跌 0.76%，沪银 涨 0.68%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.97%报 3392.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.08%报 32.81 美元/盎司。贸易紧张局势及政策不确定性抑 制经济增长预期，加剧了市场避险情绪。美国关税政策与美元信用疑虑促使非 美元资产配置增加，强化黄金避险工具的吸引力。 3. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.81%，报 63.54 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 ...