早盘速递 2026/1/14 热点资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普表示，将对与伊朗开展商业往来的国家商品征收25%的关税，进一步加大对伊朗政府的压力。 2. 据一位知情人士透露，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压后，全球央行官员正在努力发表一份声明，以示对美联储主 席鲍威尔的声援。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，美国（12月）通胀数据出炉，非常低！这意味着杰罗姆·"太晚了"·鲍威尔应该大幅降息！如果 不降息，他只会继续"太晚了"！此外，美国经济增长数据也非常好。感谢关税先生！ 4. 据路透报道，周二，交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储可能不会等到美联储主席鲍威尔任期于五月结束后再降息，因为此 前美国劳工统计局报告称，基本消费者价格上涨幅度略低于预期。尽管交易员们仍认为，六月降息是最可能的结果，但根据最 新数据预测，美联储4月降息的概率约为42%，高于数据发布前的38%。 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.44%报 4594.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.08%报 86.86 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 2.69%，报 61.1 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 2.43%， 报 65.42 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期锡涨 2.46%报 49145.0 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.36%报 3196.0 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.34%报 2060.0 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.40% 报 13156.5 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.44%报 3202.0 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 1.61%报 17600.0 美元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本文资讯内容根据网络，冠通期货编辑整理而成，仅供投资者参考。 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：苯乙烯超预期去库、纯苯历史级别高库存 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 【基本面分析】 【期现行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯苯供需压力依旧较大，虽受整体情绪影响有所反弹，但空间较为有限，继 续维持震荡思路对待。 1、1 月 2 日至 8 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 35.57 万吨，环比+0.99%; 工厂产能利用率 70.92%，环比+0.69%。 2、1 月 2 日至 8 日,苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量环比+0.31%至 25.97 万吨。 3、截至 1 月 8 日，苯乙烯工厂库存在 16.23 万吨，环比上周-5.48%;截至 1 月 12 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 10.06 万吨，环比上周-23.96%。 4、截至 1 月 12 日，苯乙烯非一体化利润在 250.79 元/吨，一体化利润在 660.46 元/吨。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。由于今年春节较晚，季节性降负的时间点晚。 【宏观面分析】 财政部发布调整光伏等产 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, with policy expectations having a significant impact. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, the market supply - demand outlook is weakening, and short - term prices may fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and moved low, weakening within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing signal for short - term shocks. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 210,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 12,386 lots. The intraday high was 1242, the low was 1209, and the closing price was 1212, down 16 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, and supply remained at a high level. New orders at new prices were average, mostly based on previous orders. Downstream trading was tepid, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, mainly maintaining low - price procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 38 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20% week - on - week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33% week - on - week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24% week - on - week [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable, but at the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, weakening the rigid demand for heavy soda ash [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of steam coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash, along with the gradual release of new production capacity, has led to a continuous increase in overall output. One glass production line started production today, slowing down the cold - repair rhythm and slightly recovering rigid demand. Additionally, continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment provide some short - term support. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, but the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and short - term prices may fluctuate [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月13日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，目前美国政府倾向与维多和托克等全球大宗商 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply has new capacity put into production, the recent plastic upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] - The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and the macro - atmosphere is warm but has limited effect on plastic [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 13, the addition of maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 1 of Dushanzi Petrochemical changed little, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a low level in recent years [1][4] - The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4] - The crude oil price has a small rebound. The plastic has new capacity put into production recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The agricultural film peak season is gradually ending, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] - China's manufacturing PMI and other indexes in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, and the macro - atmosphere is warm, but the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6673 yuan/ton, the highest was 6787 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6766 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.42%. The position decreased by 13392 lots to 477388 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly rose, with the price change range between - 0 and + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8950 - 9360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6830 - 8440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13, the addition of maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 1 of Dushanzi Petrochemical changed little, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10000 tons to 590000 tons week - on - week, 10000 tons higher than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 64 US dollars/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate. The current situation shows an oversupply pattern in the crude oil market, but geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine negotiation progress may affect the supply and demand relationship and price trends [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting will be held on February 1 [1]. - In the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and the overall oil inventories continued to rise. U.S. crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of U.S. rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may increase tariffs on Indian products. Reliance Industries stated that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any Russian oil in the past three weeks and does not expect Russian crude oil deliveries in January [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The market is still worried about crude oil demand. Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil inventories are high, resulting in an oversupply situation [1]. - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, and the U.S. Energy Secretary declared that the U.S. will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. Currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - The unrest in Iran has continued to escalate, with the domestic Internet cut off. Trump threatened to interfere in Iran again, and the U.S. State Department asked U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately. Trump also stated that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in any business activities with the U.S. [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has not made further progress. Trump passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [1]. 期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2602 rose 2.27% to 445.6 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 432.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 445.7 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2495 to 22556 lots [2]. 基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, raised the non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised the global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day, and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and were 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production reduction in Iraq and Iran [4]. - OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared with October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 4.59% to 8.17 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.688 million barrels per day, 0.49% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 5.45% to 3.195 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.629 million barrels per day, 4.25% lower than the same period last year [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase is restricted due to ineffective upward - to - downward price transmission. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term with limited downside space [1]. - The rural agriculture department's prediction on China's sugar supply - demand remains unchanged. Domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the international sugar supply is also loose. The short - term upward momentum of sugar is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cotton - The 2025/26 January US cotton supply - demand balance shows a decline in production and ending stocks compared to December. Beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports remain unchanged. Production drops by over 2% to 13.9 million bales due to lower delta region output. The national average yield falls 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decrease 7% to 4.2 million bales, accounting for 30.4% of consumption. The estimated farm - average price is raised to 61 cents per pound [1]. - The USDA cotton report is slightly bullish, but price increase space is restricted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term with support near the 20 - day line [1]. Sugar - The rural agriculture department's prediction on 2025/26 China's sugar supply - demand is consistent with last month. Northern beet - sugar production nears completion, and southern cane - sugar production is at its peak. New domestic sugar is on the market, and supply is sufficient with downstream merchants purchasing as needed. As of December, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production is 1.94 million tons with a sales rate of 45.56%, down 13.76 percentage points year - on - year; Yunnan's is 390,000 tons with a sales rate of 71.72%, down 9.98 percentage points year - on - year. Weather impact on sugar - cane sugar content needs attention [2]. - Internationally, India and Thailand have strong production increase expectations, and Brazil's sugar production remains high, resulting in a loose international sugar supply - demand situation. The basis between sugar futures and spot has been mostly repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been adjusted. Near - month contracts face large supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. A large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, but double - festival stocking may boost demand, and investors can consider buying on dips [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. In terms of supply, new production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6,456 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,120 - 6,680 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 590,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [4]. Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 主要逻辑，焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及 宏观政策导向；焦炭综合库存已至中等偏高水平、供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂季节 性累库阶段，铁水产量继续回升，对焦炭短期需求有所提振。宏观方面国内央行 和美联储降息预期仍存。综合来看，预期焦炭短期延续反弹为主、低多思路对待。 【期现行情】 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1774，收盘 1745，日内减仓 1031 手，前高 1817.5， 前低 1719；短期延续反弹为主，关注前低支撑和前高压力。 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 9 日独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 6.04%至 86.07 万吨， 钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.27%至 645.73 万吨，港口焦炭库存回升至 249.1 万吨，焦 炭综合库存增加 2.22 万吨至 980.9 万吨，为 3 个月高位，同比降逾 1%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-45 元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利-30 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 17 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-86 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 9 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂高炉开工率环增 0.37%至 ...