制作日期：2025 年 4 月 18 日 热点品种 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 原油： 4 月 2 日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"， 并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。投资者担忧全球经济，市场恐慌情绪大幅抬升。 美国进口原油主要来自加拿大及墨西哥，最新政策对符合美加墨协定的原油进行 豁免，中国虽然对美国原油进口加征关税，但中国原油主要来自中东及俄罗斯， 美国原油进口占比中国原油进口量不到 2%，市场更加担忧的是贸易战愈演愈烈 抑制原油需求端，另外，OPEC+意外决定 5 月起增产幅度增加到 41.1 万桶。原油 下行压力较大。特朗普在压力之下，宣布对大部分经济体暂停实施对等关税政策， 期限为 90 天以供谈判，市场恐慌情绪有所缓和，近日因美国制裁伊朗原油出口 （美国财政部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口 降至零）及 OPEC+补偿性检查规模小幅扩大，原油价格上涨，但中美贸易战继续， 而且美国只是将对等关税暂缓，最新的 EIA 月报将 2025 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, the 7th rate cut since last June, in line with market expectations [2] - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council pointed out during the 13th special study session that policies should be implemented promptly at key time - windows and a "combination punch" should be used when necessary [2] - Domestic refined oil prices saw the "fourth decline" this year, with the largest drop in nearly three years. Since 24:00 on April 17, gasoline and diesel prices per ton were reduced by 480 yuan and 465 yuan respectively [2] - US President Trump said the Fed is responsible for lowering interest rates, and he believes Fed Chair Powell will cut rates and leave if asked [2] - As of the week ending April 17, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventories and production decreased, and social inventories decreased for the sixth consecutive week. Apparent rebar demand was 273.82 million tons, up 21.14 million tons or 8.37% from last week [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, crude oil, asphalt, Shanghai copper, lithium carbonate, and PVC [3] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 3.33%, precious metals 28.61%, oilseeds and oils 12.59%, soft commodities 2.96%, non - ferrous metals 18.28%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.15%, energy 2.52%, chemicals 12.94%, grains 1.81%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [3] Group 3: Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a graphical form without detailed numerical descriptions [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly decline of 1.66%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.13%. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.61% daily, declined 7.46% monthly, and increased 6.66% year - to - date [5] - **Fixed - income**: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures declined 0.15% daily, increased 1.04% monthly, and had a 0.06% year - to - date increase [5] - **Commodity**: WTI crude oil rose 3.36% daily, declined 9.62% monthly, and had a 10.22% year - to - date decline. London spot gold declined 0.47% daily, increased 6.53% monthly, and had a 26.78% year - to - date increase [5] - **Other**: The US dollar index rose 0.16% daily, declined 4.58% monthly, and had an 8.35% year - to - date decline. The CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, increased 46.50% monthly, and had an 88.13% year - to - date increase [5]

【冠通研究】 盘面小幅反弹，上行空间不大 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 18 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约小幅反弹，现货市场价格延续弱势，需求不足，预计反弹空间 不大。上有工厂降价吸单，期货虽有小幅反弹，但市场情绪不佳，采买积极性低 迷。供应端，日产窄幅波动为主，春季检修期间，上游工厂多发临检，供应端依 旧维持宽松，下月有检修预期，供给或环比缩量。需求端，农需零星拿货，对需 求支撑能力疲弱，接货以复合肥工厂及其他工业刚需为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷 下滑幅度放缓，春季肥已达尾声，华北夏季肥预计即将开始生产，将有拿货倾向， 但需求前置下，预计增量有限，需求整体弱势。本期上游工厂继续出现累库，印 证下游需求整体出现不足。整体来说，尿素基本面依然偏弱，工业需求增量有限， 盘面阶段性反弹，上行空间不足，中期仍偏弱逻辑为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1760 元/吨低开高走，尾盘涨幅收窄，最终 收于 1773 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅+0.91%，日成交有所增量，持仓量 174220 手（+11915 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+110410 手，空头+8672 手。 其中，西南 ...

1. Overnight Market Trends International Market - International oil prices rose across the board, with the June contract of US crude up 3.11% at $63.75 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude up 2.75% at $67.66 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3341.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.32% at $32.55 per ounce [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME lead up 1.23% at $1927.50 per ton, LME tin up 1.16% at $31320.00 per ton, etc., while LME aluminum fell 0.15% at $2385.00 per ton [2]. - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts were mixed, with soybean futures down 0.33% at 1046.75 cents per bushel, corn futures down 0.25% at 490.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.09% at 561.5 cents per bushel [2]. Domestic Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down. Energy and chemical products mostly fell, while crude oil rose 3.4% and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.76%. Black - series products all fell. Agricultural products and base metals were mixed [3]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the seventh time and criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for being "too late" and making wrong decisions, calling for Fed rate cuts [6]. - China's GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, with the primary industry up 3.5%, the secondary industry up 5.9%, and the tertiary industry up 5.3% [6]. - The G20 Development Working Group's second meeting was held, with China clarifying its stance on the US "reciprocal tariffs" and many parties calling for maintaining the multilateral trading system [7]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of policy timing and intensity, suggesting early and forceful policy actions [7]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, and also cut other key rates, bringing borrowing costs to the lowest since early 2023 [7]. - Many institutions predict that macro - stimulus policies may be intensified in Q2, and it is an important observation window for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The production of the float glass industry was basically stable, with the average operating rate at 75.66% (up 0.24% month - on - month) and the average capacity utilization rate at 79.03% (unchanged month - on - month). The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly [10]. - Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were cut by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively [10]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose to a 17 - week high, light distillate oil inventory fell to a 19 - week low, and middle distillate oil inventory rose to a 3 - week high [10]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with light soda ash inventory up and heavy soda ash inventory down [11]. Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in Southwest China postponed its maintenance plan to late May, and a large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory [13]. - Switzerland's gold exports to the US in March decreased by 32%, and the total gold exports decreased by 27% month - on - month, while imports increased by 4% [13]. - Peru's copper production in February increased slightly year - on - year, and it is expected to rebound by 2% - 4% in 2025 [15]. - Alphamin Resources restarted tin production at its Bisie mine in the DRC [15]. Black - series Futures - HeSteel Group set the April silicon - manganese price at 5950 yuan/ton, with an increase in procurement volume [17]. - Rebar apparent demand increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventory and production decreased, and social inventory decreased for the sixth consecutive week [17]. - The export of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland in March increased compared to February [17]. - The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased to a 3 - month high, with an increase in daily coal production and inventory [18]. Agricultural Futures - As of April 17, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was faster than the same period last year [21]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [21]. - As of the end of March, textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased, with 35% of enterprises increasing inventory [21]. - The sugar - cane crushing season in Maharashtra, India is coming to an end, with lower sugar recovery rate than last year [21]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 sugar - cane and sugar production forecasts were adjusted slightly [22]. - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to a record high and lowered the estimated ending inventory [22]. - US soybean export net sales in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 met or exceeded market expectations [24]. - The IGC estimated that the global soybean production in 2025/26 would increase, trade volume would decrease, and consumption would increase [24]. 3. Financial Market Financial Sector - Six departments including the central bank issued guidelines on cross - border data flow in the financial industry [26]. - The Securities Association of China drafted an evaluation method for securities companies in promoting financial development [26]. - 28 wealth management companies' equity - related asset scale at the end of 2024 was relatively small [26]. - The number of public fund managers reached a new high [26]. Real Estate Market - Qingdao launched a "trade - in" housing program, planning to acquire over 1200 second - hand houses [27]. Industrial Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis service for high - energy - consuming industries [28]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an advertising market rectification campaign [28]. - The Ministry of Commerce continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Japanese electrolytic capacitor paper for 5 years [29]. - National railway passenger volume in Q1 reached a record high [30]. - The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in March was above the warning line [31]. - Zhejiang launched a cross - border e - commerce market expansion action [32]. - A seminar on the "Product Digital Passport" is to be held, and related achievements will be released [32]. Overseas Market - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and believed Powell would leave if asked [34]. - The central banks of South Korea, Ukraine, Turkey, and Egypt made different interest - rate decisions [35][36][37][41]. - US economic data including initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, and housing starts showed mixed performance [38][39]. - Germany's March PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [40]. - Switzerland's trade surplus in March increased [42]. - Australia's unemployment rate remained stable in March, and employment increased [44]. International Stock Market - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [45]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun visited Beijing and expressed the hope to continue cooperation with China [46]. - Apple's CEO Cook had a private talk about iPhone price hikes [47]. - Blackstone Group's Q1 revenue and net profit decreased compared to the previous year [48]. - Hermès' Q1 revenue was slightly lower than expected, and it plans to raise prices in the US [49]. - UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue and profit increased significantly, but adjusted EPS forecast for 2025 was lowered [49]. - ASML expects strong performance in the Chinese market and has no plan to build a factory in the US [50]. - The "Stargate" AI project led by OpenAI and SoftBank is considering investing in the UK [51]. - Ford Motor recalled 24,655 vehicles in the US due to safety issues [53]. - Netflix's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations [54]. Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down, with some energy and chemical products falling and some rising [55]. - Domestic refined oil prices had the fourth cut this year, with the largest decline in nearly three years [56]. - Asia's Q1 cocoa processing volume decreased year - on - year [57]. - BHP Billiton's expected Q3 copper production and annual production guidance were announced [58]. - US EIA natural gas inventory increased less than expected last week [59]. - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable [60]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a two - day decline [61]. Bond Market - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising. The central bank may provide liquidity support [63]. - Convertible bond indexes rose slightly, with some individual bonds having significant price changes [64]. - There were major events in the bond market, including bond redemptions, debt defaults, and full bond buy - backs [64]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted upwards [65]. - The RMB's share in global payments in March was 4.13%, slightly lower than the previous value [66].

Overnight Night Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.96% at $61.94 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.87% at $65.88 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and supply - demand relations [2] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 3.62% at $3357.70 per ounce, hitting a record high, and COMEX silver up 1.43% at $32.76 per ounce, due to US tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy [2] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME copper up 0.56%, LME zinc down 1.4%, LME nickel up 0.39%, LME aluminum up 0.7%, LME tin down 0.31%, and LME lead up 0.11% [2] - CBOT agricultural futures rose, with soybeans up 0.26%, corn up 0.36%, and wheat up 0.72% [3] - Domestic commodity futures at night mostly fell, with energy - chemicals mostly down, black - series mostly down, agricultural products mostly down, base metals mixed, and precious metals up [3][59] Important Information Macroeconomic News - US demand for Ukraine's aid repayment seems to ease, reducing the estimated aid from $300 billion to about $100 billion [6] - From April 1 - 13, national passenger car retail sales were 515,000 units, up 8% year - on - year, down 14% month - on - month, with cumulative sales this year at 5.642 million units, up 6% [6] - China responds to US tariff hikes, stating it will take counter - measures to safeguard rights and justice [6] - China's Q1 GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year, achieving a good start [6] - China's price has stage and structural features, and measures are needed to promote price recovery [7] - WTO cuts global trade growth forecast to - 0.2% from 3.0% due to US tariff hikes [8][43] - US March retail sales rose 1.4%, core sales up 0.5%, driven by pre - tariff car purchases [8] - Fed Chair Powell says policy is well - positioned, waiting for more data, and tariffs may boost inflation [8] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of April 15, domestic asphalt shipments were 367,000 tons, up 14.7% week - on - week [11] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory dropped to 22.11 million barrels [12] - OPEC received oil production compensation plans from eight countries [12] - As of April 16, China's methanol port inventory was 585,600 tons, with East China adding 30,300 tons and South China reducing 14,500 tons [12] - Thailand plans to import more LNG from the US in five years and will discuss tariffs next week [14] - US commercial crude inventory rose 515,000 barrels to 443 million barrels, and SPR inventory rose 299,000 barrels to 397 million barrels [14] Metal Futures - Indonesia's nickel miners' association calls for re - evaluating higher nickel royalties [16] - Guizhou's alumina spot traded 300 tons at 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [17] - India may import gold and other items from the US to address trade concerns [17] - In Feb 2025, global refined copper supply was short by 75,900 tons, and 1 - 2 months by 58,500 tons [17] - In Feb 2025, global refined nickel supply had a surplus of 4,100 tons, and 1 - 2 months by 8,300 tons [18][19] Black - Series Futures - Mount Gibson Iron's Q1 iron ore output was 557,000 wet tons, down 13.4% quarter - on - quarter and 48.5% year - on - year [21] - In March, China's steel output rose, and real estate investment fell [21] - On April 16, 242 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate was 87.58%, up 0.2 ppts [21] - Vale's Q1 iron ore output was 6.7664 million tons, down 20.7% quarter - on - quarter and 4.5% year - on - year [22] - Rio Tinto's Q1 Pilbara iron ore output was 6.98 million tons, down 19% quarter - on - quarter and 10% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Futures - As of April 13, EU's soybean imports were 10.95 million tons, and rapeseed 5.34 million tons [25] - EU's 2025/26 rapeseed output is estimated at 19.9 million tons, with drought risk [25] - Zhengshang Exchange adjusted rapeseed meal delivery warehouses [25] - As of April 15, soybean oil port inventory was 687,000 tons, down 54,000 tons [26] - Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil output may reach 47 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [26] - As of April 15, China bought about 11 million tons of May - shipped soybeans, 95% completed [27] - As of April 15, India's sugar output was 25.425 million tons [27] - Malaysia's April 1 - 15 palm oil output rose 3.97% [29] - Brazil's 2025 soybean output may be 164.262448 million tons, up 13.3% [29] - Expected US soybean and corn export sales in specific periods are given [29] Financial Markets Finance - Six consumer finance companies listed nine bad asset transfer projects in April [31] - Ten private banks cut deposit rates in April, mainly for 3 - and 5 - year deposits [31] Real Estate - China's Q1 real estate investment fell 9.9%, sales down 2.1%, and funds down 3.7% [33] - First - tier cities' new home prices rose for four months, and second - hand prices turned up [33] - Qingdao introduced 12 real estate policies, including subsidies and loan products [33] Industry - MIIT promotes intelligent connected vehicle management, emphasizing safety [34] - Local NDRC conducts a survey on computing power for national layout [35] - Nine departments promote education digitization, including AI models [35] - China's Q1 industrial capacity utilization was 74.1%, up 0.5 ppts [38] - China's Q1 smartphone shipments rose 3.3%, with Xiaomi leading [39] - Huawei launched new products and announced a new brand cooperation [39] Overseas - Fitch expects Fed to cut rates in Q4 2025, with US growth at 1.2% in 2025 [40] - Fed's Harker says there are reasons to keep policy stable [40] - Canada's central bank keeps interest rate at 2.75% [41] - WTO warns US tariff hikes may cause 1.5% global economic decline [43] - Japan's central bank may act if US tariffs harm its economy [44] - South Korea's finance minister will discuss trade with US [45] - Italy's PM will meet US President to ease trade tensions [46] - US March industrial output and retail sales data are released [47][48] - Eurozone and UK March inflation and retail data are released [49][51] International Stock Markets - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.72% [54] - Google faces a £5 billion lawsuit in the UK [54] - OpenAI acquires Context.ai and launches new models [55] - ASML and Abbott report Q1 financial results [56] - EU approves Leqembi for Alzheimer's treatment [57] Commodities - Domestic commodity futures at night mostly fell, and April 17 may see a fuel price cut [59] - China's March industrial output of coal, oil, gas, and power rose [59] - Domestic gold prices hit a record high [60] - A new PBAT standard will be implemented in 2025 [60] - 2024 global stainless steel output was 62.6 million tons, up 7% [61] - US President signs an order to investigate key mineral risks [62] - Domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate price was stable at 71,500 yuan/ton [64] - US EIA crude inventory rose last week [65] - Baltic Dry Index fell 1.74% [66] Bonds - Bond market was stable, with Treasury futures up and yields mostly down [67] - Convertible bond indices fell, with some individual bonds having large movements [68] - The Ministry of Finance will issue 21 - period special Treasury bonds from April 24 [69] - The Ministry of Finance will bid for 100 billion yuan 2 - month Treasury cash deposits [70] - Japan and China increased their US Treasury holdings in February [71] - Some bonds will be redeemed, and companies issued or planned asset - related events [71] Foreign Exchange - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 33 pips at 7.3179 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a slight rebound due to the moderation of tariff conflicts, the influence of US economic data and the US dollar. The fundamentals still support the copper market, but the market volatility remains uncertain. Although the trading is gradually returning to the fundamentals, short - term attention should still be paid to overseas trade games [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Tariff conflict between China and the US has slightly eased. The US economic data and the US dollar have led to a small rebound in copper prices. The fundamentals still support the copper market. The copper market volatility is uncertain, and short - term attention should be paid to overseas trade games. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand from China in the second quarter is strong [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, with a closing price of 75,780 yuan per ton. The number of long orders from the top 20 was 105,352, an increase of 160, and the number of short orders was 106,572, an increase of 1,260. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 140 yuan per ton. On April 16, 2025, the LME official price was 9,118 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 35 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 29.5 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.95 cents per pound. The negative expansion of smelter processing fees has not been reversed, and the output is expected to decline this month. Affected by trade conflicts, the supply of scrap copper is also expected to shrink [1][5]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 7.71 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons from the previous period. As of April 14, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 121,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 121,600 short tons, an increase of 1,167 short tons from the previous period [9].

早盘速递 2025/4/17 热点资讯 1、中国一季度国民经济开局良好。据国家统计局初步核算，一季度国内生产总值（GDP）318758亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长5.4%，环比增长1.2%; 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%；服务业增加值增长5.3%，现代服务业增势良好；社会消费 品零售总额124671亿元，增长4.6%；全国固定资产投资（不含农户）103174亿元，增长4.2%；就业形势总体稳定，全国城镇调 查失业率平均值为5.3%；全国居民人均可支配收入12179元，同比名义增长5.5%，扣除价格因素实际增长5.6%。 2、国新办举行新闻发布会，国家统计局副局长盛来运介绍一季度国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。发布会要点包括：①中国有 底气有能力有信心应对外部挑战，实现经济发展目标②中国经济依靠内需和创新驱动的新格局正在形成③大力增加优质消费供 给，持续释放消费潜力④要全面准确地看待当前物价低位运行态势⑤一季度房地产市场整体形势好转，房地产开发企业到位资 金和房贷降幅双双收窄⑥持续优化营商环境，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 3、中国一季度房地产开发投资同比下降9.9%，新建商品房销售额下降2. ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 16 日 热点品种 铁矿石： 今日黑色系下跌为主，铁矿石收盘价格重心下移。供应端外矿发运季节性回升； 铁水产量仍在增长，但近期吨钢利润有所收缩，部分钢厂开始亏损，叠加国际贸 易形式恶化以及中国钢材买单出口调查加严，成材出口需求预期偏弱，向上传导， 铁水上方空间或有限。今日公布的一季度 GDP 数据超预期，市场预计宏观政策刺 激放缓，叠加 1-3 月份地产新开工保持较大同比降幅，黑色系整体下挫，但当下 铁水拐点未至，铁矿石需求表现韧性，预计短期铁矿震荡为主。05 合约贴水现 货，09 合约面临供应回升和材端出口走弱的压力。2509 合约运行区间参考 680- 740 元/吨。操作上，单边观望，5-9 正套继续持有。 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面低开低走，持续下跌，收盘跌幅 2.62%。国际方面，美 国商务部长通过中间人与中国就关税"初步接触"，持续跟踪美豆出口中国前景。 巴西大豆周度到港量 254.73 万吨，四月大豆出口量预计达到 14 ...

【冠通研究】 短期弱势震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 16 日 【策略分析】 短期弱势震荡 今日焦煤主力 2509 合约低开后增仓下行，收盘价格重心继续下移。国内矿山复 产加快，产量继续抬升；蒙煤通关车辆回升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运 行。下游钢焦企业开工小幅回升；国内焦煤现货市场氛围放缓。美国加征关税影 响我国从美进口煤炭，但其他替代资源充足，供给端压力仍较大。一季度 GDP 表 现超预期，市场预期宏观刺激政策放缓，叠加地产新开工不见好转，黑色系继续 下挫；焦煤基本面暂时难有明显改善，短期预计延续弱势运行态势。05 合约贴水 现货，临近交割月，预计 05 表现较 09 更抗跌。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2509 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2509 合约低开后增仓下行，最终收盘于 966 元/吨，-25 元/吨，涨跌幅-2.52%。成交量 26.90 万手，持仓 31.92 万手，+39348 手，今日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦煤 2509 合约前二十名多头持仓为 174087 手，+17674 手 ...

塑料：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年4月16日 【策略分析】 塑料空单、多PP05空LL05头寸逐步止盈平仓/05基差逢高做空 裕龙石化全密度2线等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至88%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏 高水平。春节假期后第十周，PE下游开工率环比略有回升，农膜原料库存和农膜订单继续小幅下降， 农膜旺季进入尾声，包装膜订单转而小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位水平。 石化清明节假期期间累库较多，不过放假归来工作日去库快，石化库存降至近年同期偏低水平。美 国加征关税不利于塑料下游制品出口同时聚乙烯上游乙烷进口受限。随着特朗普宣布对大部分经济 体暂停实施对等关税政策，期限为90天以供谈判，上游原油价格低位大幅反弹。供应上，新增产能 万华化学、内蒙古宝丰2#、埃克森美孚惠州一期投产，内蒙宝丰3#3月份新近投产，山东新时代线性 推迟至4月份投产，近日新增部分检修装置，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订单生产为主，地膜进入旺 季尾声，下游其他需求有望继续恢复，3月制造业PMI上升，只是目前新单跟进缓慢，下游开工提升 幅度不及预期，对高价原料购买谨慎，刚需补库，各地区地区农膜价格上周普遍下跌。由于全 ...