Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, important macro - economic data, and significant events in various industries. It also analyzes market trends and potential investment opportunities in different sectors such as stocks, futures, and bonds [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures increased by 1.29% to $4518.40 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 4.36%, and COMEX silver futures rose by 6.18% to $79.79 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 12.36% [4]. - US oil and Brent crude oil prices both increased. The US oil main contract rose 1.77% to $58.78 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 2.55%, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to $63.02 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 3.74% [5]. - London base metals all closed higher. For example, LME copper rose 2.07% to $12965.5 per ton, with a weekly gain of 3.98% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [8]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, while the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 920,000, a year - on - year decrease of 30% [8]. - As of January 1, 2026, the number of intermediaries in the contract duration was 1051, a decrease of 4016 compared with the end of 2024, a decline of 79.26% [9]. - The US labor market showed signs of deterioration. In December, the number of new jobs was 50,000, less than the expected 60,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - US shale oil executives warned that Trump's plan to take over Venezuela's oil industry would lead to over - supply in the market [15]. - As of January 8, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 743,400 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from January 1 [16]. - The PVC export tax rebate will be cancelled after April 1, 2026, which may limit PVC exports [17]. Metal Futures - Since Monday, the prices of silicone products have increased across the board, with the DMC guide price rising by about $300 per ton [21]. - The US aluminum price has soared due to tariffs and insufficient inventory. The premium of the US Midwest aluminum price over the LME has reached a record high [21]. - From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [22][24]. Black - System Futures - The Dengfeng Xingyu Coal Industry Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification for 10 days due to major accident potential [28]. - Projects on the "white list" of real - estate financing coordination mechanism can extend the loan term to 5 years [30]. Agricultural Product Futures - Analysts expect the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.229 billion bushels [32]. - As of the week of January 9, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of $11.54 per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of $2.31 per head [32]. Financial Market Finance - Last week, the three major A - share stock indexes continued to rise in a volatile manner. Investors can focus on structural investment opportunities [36]. - As of January 10, the estimated new public - offering funds entering the market in 2026 were over $45 billion [36]. - In 2025, A - share listed companies' cash dividends reached a record high of $2.55 trillion [38]. Industry - From January 1, 2027, fund managers will not be allowed to charge subscription fees and sales service fees [42]. - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will face major policy changes, and the industry's valuation system may be reconstructed [43]. - The price of storage chips has skyrocketed, and tech giants are scrambling for DRAM sources [43]. Overseas - Trump called for setting a one - year cap of 10% on credit card interest rates starting from January 20 [46]. - Trump signed an executive order to prevent the seizure of Venezuela's oil revenue in the US Treasury account [46]. International Stock Market - Micron Technology plans to build a giant wafer factory in New York State with a total investment of about $100 billion [49]. Commodity - In 2026, precious metals continued their bull - market trend, and industrial metals also have upward potential [50]. - Indonesia's adjustment of nickel mining quotas has caused turmoil in the global nickel market [50]. Bond - The inflow of incremental funds into the bond market is slowing down, and bond funds started poorly in 2026 [51]. Foreign Exchange - In early 2026, the "Carbon - Saving Incentive" mini - program was launched on the digital RMB APP in Shanghai [53]. - The RMB has entered an appreciation channel, and it may appreciate by at least 2 - 3 percentage points annually in the next few years [53].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。下周华东主力炼厂间歇复 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of being cautiously bullish on hot - rolled coils [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production pressure of hot - rolled coils is not significant. The anti - involution policy provides strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year - on - year performance is still strong. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The strong performance of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot - rolled coil market has large fluctuations and is currently near the moving - average support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Friday decreased compared with the previous trading day. It decreased in position and fluctuated within the day, standing above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, closing at 3294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton or 1.02% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 14 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to spot [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 16,200 tons year - on - year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks due to improved profitability of steel mills, iron - water transfer from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after annual maintenance [3] - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared with the previous week, showing a slight decline. However, it increased by 72,500 tons year - on - year, indicating that demand still has resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons. The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a high level in the past five years, exerting pressure on prices [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference in December are beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real - estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron - ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding - expected resumption of production of steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Although there is short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading during the period. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, but the delivery from the side storage areas along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrived at the port intensively, and the inventory increased significantly under stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly this week. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of import and domestic trade vessel replenishment during the period, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas decreased due to the holiday, resulting in little inventory fluctuation. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at the port this week, and the inventory decreased under the rigid demand of downstream consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The interest rates of short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit in some banks have entered the "0 range", which is similar to that of ordinary time deposits. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year-on-year. China's CPI annual rate in December was 0.8%, with an expected value of 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand pose some pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock is on the strong side [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply-demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro expectations and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong operation, but the upward space may be limited. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of soda ash opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands continued to have three tracks upward, indicating a short-term shock on the strong side. The upper pressure was focused on the 20 and 60 moving averages on the weekly line, and the support continued to focus on the 40 moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 643,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 1,967 lots. The intraday high was 1,242, the low was 1,204, and the closing price was 1,228, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (1.6% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the maintenance expectations were few. The industrial supply hovered at a high level. The downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the demand was neither strong nor weak, and most of them maintained low-price on-demand replenishment and were resistant to high prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 22 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56,500 tons (8.11% increase). Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, compared with 79.96% last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month-on-month increase of 11.20%; the combined process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month-on-month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 88.15%, a month-on-month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons compared with Monday (4.26% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,800 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons (11.67% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10,190 tons (6.93% increase) [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined process was -40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-soda process was -57.85 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material ore salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, resulting in an increase in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current daily output of soda ash has reached 110,300 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.39%. Coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Before the New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down for cold repair, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing the inventory. However, there is certain short-term support under continuous losses and positive macro sentiment [4]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1750 1750 0 河南 1750 1750 0 山东 1750 1760 -10 山西 1610 1610 0 江苏 1760 1760 0 安徽 1750 1750 0 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1780 1780 0 河北东光 1730 1730 0 山东华鲁 1740 1730 10 江苏灵谷 1790 1790 0 安徽昊源 1720 1720 0 山东05基差 -40 -38 -2 山东01基差 -19 -5 -14 河北05基差 -40 -38 -2 河北01基差 -19 -5 -14 1-5价差 92 84 8 5-9价差 21 33 -12 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12850 12850 0 中东FOB 397 397 0 美湾FOB 391.5 391.5 0 埃及FOB 447.5 447.5 0 波罗的海FOB 375 375 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 2026/1/9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened lower and closed higher today, with a decline at the close. The overall price remained stable with some factory prices slightly loosening. Ample supply continued to limit the upside of the futures price. The market trading activity decreased, and agricultural demand was in the off - season. After the environmental protection warning was lifted, the compound fertilizer production resumed, but the upside was limited. The melamine production load increased by 6.7 percentage points with mainly demand resilience and no significant increase. The inventory at factories started to accumulate slightly. In the short term, without a clear driver, the urea futures would fluctuate and consolidate [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and closed higher, with an intraday decline. The overall price was stable with some factory prices loosening. The supply was abundant as shutdown units resumed production, suppressing the futures price. The market trading activity declined, and agricultural demand was in the off - season, with the next concentrated agricultural demand around the wheat green - turning top - dressing period around the Lunar New Year. After the end of environmental protection warnings, the compound fertilizer production recovered, but the upside was limited as it approached the year - end holiday, and the demand for urea lacked upward elasticity. The melamine production load increased by 6.7 percentage points, with demand showing resilience but no significant increase. Factory inventory started to accumulate slightly, and in the short term, the futures would fluctuate and consolidate [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1776 yuan/ton, opened lower and closed higher, and ended the day with a decline. It closed at 1777 yuan/ton, forming a positive line, with a change rate of - 0.22% and a position of 232,407 lots (- 244 lots). Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 279 lots and the short positions decreased by 42 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position increase of 2506 lots, Zhongjin Fortune had a net long position increase of 208 lots; Yinhe Futures had a net short position increase of 1174 lots, and Zhongtai Futures had a net short position increase of 1197 lots [2] - **Spot**: As the trading atmosphere weakened, some factory prices loosened slightly, and the overall price was stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1680 to 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On January 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,850, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 27 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on January 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 202,000 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.24% [9]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the steel industry and suggests buying on dips [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential warming of winter storage sentiment to drive demand. Production continues to rise but is relatively low compared to recent years, and anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate, but it is at a relatively low level, so the pressure is not significant. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside space, but infrastructure demand may have certain resilience. The market is expected to remain in an oscillatory range, with a bullish outlook [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Friday, the open interest of the rebar main contract decreased by 66,939 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,169,507 lots. The price decreased throughout the day while reducing positions. It stood above the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with a minimum of 3,128 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,174 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,144 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.10% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 166 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation** - **Supply**: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, and was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly rebar production was still relatively low compared to recent years [2] - **Demand**: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in northern regions stopped, and projects in southern regions were nearing completion. The apparent demand decreased for three consecutive weeks. Future attention should be paid to the start of winter storage demand [2] - **Inventory**: Inventory started to increase. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to accumulate after 9 consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4] - **Macro - environment**: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the purchase of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." The incremental demand was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [4] - **Cost**: The sharp rise in coking coal, coke, and iron ore provided strong cost support [5] 3.3 Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, loose macro - economic expectations, and sharp rise in raw material prices [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation, slow inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move up in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles. Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Parts Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years - On the cost side, although the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, the key oil facilities in the country are not damaged, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, but the crude oil price remains weak - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled plants has increased recently - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized purchasing in the market, so the boost to the market is limited. Traders are on the sidelines - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the 2026 trade - in and "two key" quotas, creating a warm macro environment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with the lowest price of 6,456 yuan/ton, the highest price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.31%. The position volume decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2] - In the spot market, the spot prices of PP in various regions have partially increased, with drawstring priced at 6,070 - 6,530 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - On the demand side, as of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 57 million tons week - on - week, 1 million tons higher than the same period last year - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $750 per ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait-and-see approach for PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently in a state of shock operation. The supply side shows an increase in the PVC start - up rate, while the downstream demand is poor, the export situation is not optimistic, and the social inventory is high. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the overall situation of PVC is still not favorable, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream is stable. The PVC start - up rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate has a slight increase but is still lower than before the New Year's Day holiday, and the orders for downstream products are not good. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with low prices and limited demand in the Indian market. The CFR prices in India and Southeast Asia have dropped. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chloro - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure, and the output decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4825 yuan/ton, the highest was 4915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4897 yuan/ton, down 0.73% with an increase of 16256 hands in the position to 1052924 hands [2] Basis - On January 9th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4897 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 247 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton and at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by some devices, the PVC start - up rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into production or are in trial production [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing also decreased. As of the week of January 4th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and was at a low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 8th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% month - on - month to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still high [6]