Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate declined slightly, and orders for downstream products were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged price for volume, and last week's export orders rebounded, but the Indian market price was also falling, and Indian demand was limited. Last week, social inventory increased slightly and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to November, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The real estate market needed time to improve. New production capacity of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua was newly put into production. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali decreased, the operating expectations of some production enterprises declined, but the production decline was limited, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December generally decreased, and the Indian market price was also falling, with limited Indian demand. December was the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and the recent upward space for PVC was limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 4,571 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,675 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,669 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position increased by 100,545 lots to 849,431 lots [2] Basis - On December 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China rose to 4,395 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,669 yuan/ton. The current basis was -274 yuan/ton, weakening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43%, continuing to decline slightly and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of the year [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, with large year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. From January to November, the new construction area of housing was 534.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%; among which, the new construction area of residential housing was 391.89 million square meters, a decrease of 19.9%. From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to November, the completion area of housing was 394.54 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%; among which, the completion area of residential housing was 281.05 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. The overall real estate market needed time to improve. As of the week of December 14, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded by 13.80% month-on-month but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies could boost the sales of commercial housing [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 11, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 1.0593 million tons, a 27.63% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and remained high (Longzhong increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to the adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month, but the upside potential of the near - month is limited [1] - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state due to abundant supply both internationally and domestically [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On the 15th, the sales basis of machine - picked cotton 3129B in Aksu, Xinjiang (within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 910 - 980 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14750 - 14900 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton from last Friday [1] - In Bortala, Xinjiang, the basis transaction price of new machine - picked cotton (Grade 31, double 29, within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 980 - 1080 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14900 - 15100 yuan/ton, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons, and the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 2026/27 season is 41.5 million tons, which is lower than the previous estimate [2] - As of December 15, in the 2025/26 season in India, 479 sugar mills were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [2] - With abundant international supply, all northern beet sugar mills in China are in operation, and southern cane sugar mills are gradually starting production. The domestic sugar market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are under downward pressure [2]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side of soybeans has significant supporting factors, but the demand side has weak recovery, with short - term prices in a volatile pattern and potential for further decline if import soybean near - month auction volume drops [1] - The selling pressure on corn prices is gradually decreasing, and after the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase and suppress short - term price increases, but the worst stage is over, and it's worth watching for buying opportunities around New Year's Day [1] - Egg prices are stabilizing, with short - term supply remaining loose and demand lacking highlights during the double - festival stocking period. There may be a chance of price recovery after the festival if there is over - culling, but short - term prices are expected to be volatile [2] - The pig - breeding industry has been in the capacity - reduction stage since July 2025. The supply is still loose at present, with large short - term supply pressure, but there is a possibility of price increase for far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Industry Situation Details Soybeans - On the supply side, large - scale buyers' purchase prices are rising steadily, the purchase price of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides a bottom support, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the supply of high - quality soybeans in the south is decreasing [1] - On the demand side, downstream consumption recovery is weak, the actual trading atmosphere has not improved with price trends, and enterprises in sales areas mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand [1] Corn - The average sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data, with the fastest being 42% from the National Grain and Oil Information Center. Heilongjiang is at 50%, Jilin at 36%, Liaoning at 44%, and Inner Mongolia at 36% [1] Eggs - Egg spot prices are stabilizing, but the upward driving force is weakening as prices approach the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, demand during the double - festival stocking period is not prominent, and the overall number of culled chickens is still much higher than the same period in previous years [2] Pigs - Since July 2025, the pig - breeding industry has been reducing capacity. By the end of October, the national inventory of breeding sows dropped to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decline of 1.1%, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October [2] - The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in December increased by about 3.2% month - on - month, and the overall slaughter pressure is still large under the pessimistic industry expectation [2]

早盘速递 2025/12/16 5.俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克镍业公司（Nornickel）周一表示，已将今年镍供应过剩预测上调一倍，并将2026年的预测上调 了一倍多。在金属市场评估报告中，这家全球最大的钯生产商和主要的精炼镍生产商表示，预计今年镍供应过剩量将达到24万 吨，高于7月份预测的12万吨。该公司还表示，已将明年的供应过剩预测上调至27.5万吨，高于此前预测的13万吨。 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、铂、沥青、原油 夜盘表现 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 2.53% 贵金属, 32.75% 油脂油料, 8.72% 软商品, 3.08% 有色, 24.29% 煤焦钢矿, 10.86% 能源, 2.61% 化工, 10.28% 谷物, 1.36% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments across various sectors including futures (energy, metals, black - series, and agricultural products), financial markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange), and international news, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [5][10][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic platinum and palladium futures rose significantly on December 15. Platinum 2606 contract hit the daily limit with a 7% increase, and palladium futures rose 4.73% [5]. - International precious metal futures generally closed up, with COMEX gold rising 0.14% and COMEX silver rising 3.42% [6]. - Crude oil futures declined, with the US oil main contract down 1.32% and Brent crude down 1.16% [7]. - Most London base metals fell, except for copper and aluminum [7]. Important Information Macro - Economic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasized maintaining the stable operation of the foreign exchange market and the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate in 2026 [10]. - The Shanghai Arbitration Commission is about to introduce the Shanghai Arbitration Commission Securities and Futures Arbitration Rules [10]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased 0.1% as of December 15 [11]. - In November, housing prices in first - tier cities continued to decline, and the decline in second - and third - tier cities narrowed [11]. - A Fed official said the current policy stance is too tight, and inflation is expected to ease [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals decreased by 58.57% week - on - week in the week ending December 15 [14]. - OPEC expects global energy demand to grow 23% by 2050, with oil remaining the largest single energy source [14]. Metal Futures - Nornickel doubled its nickel surplus forecast for this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026 [16]. - The group standard for gold trade - in business was officially released [16]. - Guinea started the construction of an alumina plant, accelerating its transformation to downstream industrial processing [16]. - Indonesia's refined tin exports in November reached a two - year high [18]. - LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026 [18]. - Peru's copper, zinc, lead, and tin production increased in October [19]. Black - Series Futures - In early December, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed different trends, with crude steel increasing, and pig iron and steel products decreasing [21]. - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports increased from December 8 - 14 [21]. - Global iron ore shipments increased from December 8 - 14 [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of early December, the average cotton inventory usage days of surveyed textile enterprises decreased slightly, and the national cotton industrial inventory decreased slightly [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [25][26]. - India's vegetable oil imports in November decreased compared to October, with different trends for different types of oils [26]. - US private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [26]. - US soybean exports to China increased in the week ending December 11 [26]. Financial Markets Financial - The CSRC outlined key reform directions for the capital market during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. - A - shares declined with reduced trading volume, and different sectors showed different trends [29]. - Hong Kong stocks also fell, and Xiaomi received net buying [29]. - Brokerage business turnover on the dragon and tiger list increased significantly this year [30]. - Institutions' enthusiasm for researching listed companies remained high in December [31]. - A - share cash dividends reached a record high this year [33]. - The Shanghai Arbitration Commission is about to introduce arbitration rules for securities and futures [33]. - HKEX is considering reforms on trading lot size and extending trading hours [33]. - A domestic GPU company will be listed on the A - share market, and another completed HK IPO filing [33]. Industry - China approved the first batch of L3 - level conditionally autonomous driving vehicles for commercial pilots [34]. - Several substances were added to the non - edible substances list [34]. - Some lithium iron phosphate enterprises proposed price increases [36]. - China is promoting 6G development and expects large - scale commercialization by 2035 [36]. - The 27th Harbin Ice and Snow World will open on December 17 [36]. Overseas - Multiple European countries and institutions plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [37]. - The nomination of the new Fed chairman candidate faces resistance [37]. - Fed officials expressed their views on the economy, inflation, and policy stance [37][38]. - The Bank of Japan may start selling ETFs next month [40]. International Stock Markets - US stocks declined slightly, and European stocks rose [41]. - NASDAQ plans to extend trading hours to 23 hours on weekdays [41]. - iRobot filed for bankruptcy and will be taken over by Yunjing Intelligence [42]. Commodities - Platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market rose sharply on December 15 [43][44]. - ICBC will close personal precious metal trading services for "three - no" customers [44]. - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures fell [44]. - Most London base metals fell, and Goldman Sachs adjusted its copper price forecast [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, and US bond yields showed mixed trends [46][47]. - South Korea extended its bond market stabilization plan [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [48]. - Argentina will adjust its exchange rate mechanism and implement a foreign exchange reserve accumulation plan [48]. - South Korea's NPS will support the won exchange rate [50]. Upcoming Events - On December 16, there will be 1173 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the Chinese central bank's open market, and several conferences will be held [52]. - New stocks will be listed and a new stock will be available for subscription [52]. - The governor of the Bank of Canada will give a speech [52].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1710 1710 0 河南 1670 1690 -20 山东 1700 1710 -10 山西 1520 1530 -10 江苏 1680 1690 -10 安徽 1670 1680 -10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1690 1690 0 山东华鲁 1670 1690 -20 江苏灵谷 1710 1730 -20 安徽昊源 1640 1650 -10 山东05基差 7 -13 20 山东01基差 -6 -21 15 河北05基差 7 7 0 河北01基差 -6 -1 -5 1-5价差 65 68 -3 5-9价差 -13 -8 -5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11245 11296 -51 中东FOB 367 375 -8 美湾FOB 353 355.5 -3 埃及FOB 437.5 450 -13 波罗的海FOB 352.5 360 -8 巴西CFR 397.5 405 -8 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 2025/12/15 指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market has short - term price support but faces long - term pressure due to factors like new - season harvest and weak demand [1]. - Corn has seen a price decline recently, with increased supply expected to suppress short - term upside, but there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. - The egg market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential price improvement after the festival if there is over - culling [2]. - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with high pressure on spot supply until February 2026, but far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Soybean - In the domestic market, adverse weather in the Guan - nei soybean area has damaged quality, supporting the price of high - protein soybeans in Northeast China, and there is short - term farmer reluctance to sell [1]. - In the long run, the new - season domestic soybean harvest is good, and slow selling may lead to concentrated sales pressure later. Downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is in a shock pattern, with a risk of further decline if import soybean auctions decrease [1]. Corn - Corn had a short - term upward trend but then reversed due to negative rumors. The current seasonal selling peak and price decline have increased market supply and cooled prices [1]. - After the loosening of the reluctance - to - sell sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing short - term price increases. There may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. Egg - The egg spot price has stabilized, but the upward drive is weakening as it approaches the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, and demand during the double - festival stocking period is not outstanding [2]. - There has been some decline in the egg - laying hen capacity, but it is still higher than in previous years. It is difficult to have a trend - like market before the festival. After the festival, if there is over - culling, the price may improve, but the short - term drive is weak [2]. Pig - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with a high inventory of breeding sows and sufficient piglet supply, ensuring abundant theoretical supply until the first half of 2026 [2]. - In December, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased by about 3.2% month - on - month. The overall slaughter pressure is high until February 2026. However, the decline in the inventory of breeding sows may lead to a price increase in far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views of the Report - The cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger sideways trend. Although there are signs of a rebound in the futures market due to speculation about future production cuts, the near - term upside is limited, and the impact of the expected 2026 production cut will be more evident after October [1]. - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak sideways trend. The international and domestic sugar markets are in a state of oversupply, with the core contradiction being the rapid increase in supply and relatively flat demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - In 2026/27, the target area for cotton planting in Xinjiang is set at around 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu (over 10%) compared to the actual planting area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025, indicating a significant structural adjustment in Xinjiang's cotton planting [1]. Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 crushing season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons. It also expects Brazil's central - southern region to produce 41.5 million tons of sugar in the 2026/27 crushing season, a downward revision from the previous forecast [2]. - The domestic sugar market is in a weak state of oversupply. The main sugar - producing areas in China have entered the peak of the new crushing season, leading to a concentrated release of new sugar supply. The core contradiction is the mismatch between rapid supply growth and relatively flat demand [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 【行情分析】 焦炭产量：截止 12 月 12 日独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为 73.16%，减 0.68%；焦炭 日均产量 63.98 万吨，减 0.55 万吨；另外全国 247 家钢厂样本：焦炭日均产量 46.61 减 0.01，产能利用率 85.95% 减 0.02 %。 焦炭库存，钢厂焦炭库存累增 10 万吨至 635.28 万吨，同时独立焦企焦炭库存也增加 10.88 万吨至 87.32 万吨，创近 5 个月高位，港口库存 181.2 万吨，同比增幅达 27%，焦 炭综合库存 903.8 万吨、增加 20.8 万吨。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况，平均吨焦盈利 44 元/吨；山西准一 级焦平均盈利 61 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 100 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利 5 元/ 吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 89 元/吨。 下游需求方面，随着季节性淡季逐步深入，钢材市场供需双减，247 家钢厂盈利率减 少 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 666 ...