Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on July 8, 2025, ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.88% to 67.86 cents per pound, and CF509 fell by 0.22% to 13,760 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,264 lots to 543,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,176 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,201 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, with the U.S. cotton price falling after the holiday. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price is mainly range - bound with limited upward drive. The previous drivers of the upward trend were low inventory and weather disturbances, but now there is a strong expectation of a good cotton harvest, and the operating load of downstream textile enterprises is relatively low. It is expected that the commercial cotton inventory at the end of September will be relatively healthy, and the cotton price lacks continuous upward drive. Overall, the short - term cotton price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 3.3618 million tons of sugar and molasses in June 2025, an increase of 157,300 tons or 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 20 - 30 yuan per ton, and in Yunnan by 10 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of sugar refineries also decreased. Brazil's sugar exports remained high in June, and China is one of the important buyers. It is expected that China's sugar imports will remain high in July and August. With the arrival of imported sugar, the spot sugar price is under slight pressure. More attention should be paid to the quotation of refined sugar, which will have a greater influence in the future. The main futures contract is currently considered to be in a weak - range - bound situation, but it is not recommended to continue to short the far - month contracts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 0 (unchanged), the main contract basis is 1,441 yuan (up 21 yuan). The arrival price in Xinjiang is 15,176 yuan per ton (up 6 yuan), and the national price is 15,201 yuan per ton (up 1 yuan) [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 160 yuan (down 22 yuan), the main contract basis is 336 yuan (down 5 yuan). The spot price in Nanning is 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou is 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,039 (down 28), and the valid forecast was 260. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,176 yuan per ton, Henan 15,273 yuan per ton, Shandong 15,172 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 15,420 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.4 (down 0.4), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6 (up 0.6), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.8 (unchanged), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.4 (up 0.1) [3]. - **Sugar**: On July 7, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6,040 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), and in Liuzhou was 6,090 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 23,404 (down 20), and the valid forecast was 106 [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 9 - 1 spread, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota, the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the price index [6][9][11][14][17].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8045 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.69%，持仓 减仓 5935 手至 38.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 39 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 240 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 36515 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.86%，持仓增仓 25069 手至 10.24 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升 水转为贴水 515 元/吨。工业硅供给南增北减，增复产同期并存下整体库 存压力缓解有限，工业硅多空博弈激烈、波动率提升，仓单下降但社库积 累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛思路对待。多晶硅短期矛盾在于下游硅片原料 采购承压和行业反内卷减产预期加速。当前交易逻辑处于政策调控消息发 酵期内，盘面低位存在支撑，可选择观望或轻仓试多。重点关注双硅减产 执行力度，以及 PS/SI 比价回升后多 PS 空 SI 机会。 工业硅日报 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米跌破 2330 元整数关口支撑，期价增仓下行。玉米加权合约在连续两 个月减仓调整之后，持仓恢复增加，主力合约破位下行，吸引投机资金关注。现 货市场方面，受进口玉米拍卖影响，国内多地玉米现货报价承压下行。周末东北 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 玉米深加工收购价格有所下调，因进口玉米拍卖市场情绪略受影响，贸易商售粮 | | | | 心态有所松动，后续继续关注进口玉米的拍卖和成交情况。周末华北地区玉米价 | | | | 格整体偏弱运行，进口玉米拍卖持续投放，约每周投放 50 万吨左右，对市场心 | | | | 态有明显影响，在贸易商都有利润的情况下，出货积极性增加，市场供应量较大， | | | | 深加工企业玉米价格压价收购，价格偏弱。周末销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。 | | | | 周五第二次进口玉米进行拍卖，市场购销情绪减弱，基本溢价 20-40 元/吨。产 | | | | 区贸易商远期看涨，但短期出货变现意愿增强，销区玉米高价成交有限，刚需为 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.69% decline to $9,784 per ton, and SHFE copper主力 fell 0.15% to 79,390 yuan per ton. There are concerns about a resurgence of trade tensions, and inventories at LME, Comex, and in the domestic market have increased. Short - term copper prices may be weak but the downside may be limited. Low inventories at home and abroad, along with domestic import losses and the discount pattern, are favorable for the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly, while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly. There are both ore disturbances and new production pressures in alumina. With news of the exit of backward production capacity, the short - term policy may guide the market to fluctuate strongly. There is a marginal game between weakening electrolytic aluminum demand and low - delivery products. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.85%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.39%. In the stainless - steel industry chain, although there is production reduction, the overall inventory remains high. In the new - energy industry chain, the demand for nickel sulfate in July increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices declined overnight, and SHFE copper also fell. Concerns about trade tensions and increased inventories have put pressure on copper prices. However, low inventories and import losses support the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina showed a strong trend, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There are complex factors in the alumina market, and the short - term policy may drive the market. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In the stainless - steel and new - energy industries, the situation is mixed. In the short term, it will fluctuate, and overseas policies need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 640 yuan per ton, and the inventory at LME and Comex increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory at LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,500 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [11][14][16]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous metals research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [46].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the index trends, the influence of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock - index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock - index futures contract roll - overs on July 7th. It provides detailed data on various indices and futures contracts. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On July 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to close at 3473.13 points with a trading volume of 476.197 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7% to close at 10435.51 points with a trading volume of 732.444 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24% with a trading volume of 264.835 billion yuan, opening at 6305.04, closing at 6327.14, with a daily high of 6333.51 and a low of 6303.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.19% with a trading volume of 165.759 billion yuan, opening at 5901.4, closing at 5900.41, with a daily high of 5910.8 and a low of 5889.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% with a trading volume of 56.66 billion yuan, opening at 2736.01, closing at 2731.53, with a daily high of 2736.26 and a low of 2723.96 [1]. Sector Fluctuations' Influence on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 14.94 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as utilities, computers, and basic chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose - 11.03 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors like utilities, non - bank finance, and real estate significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose - 17.03 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking sector significantly pulled the index up, while biomedicine, power equipment, and electronics pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose - 8.91 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking and national defense and military industries significantly pulled the index up, while coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages pulled it down [2]. Stock - Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 53.6, IM01 of - 131.34, IM02 of - 209.83, and IM03 of - 393.64 [13]. - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.29, IC01 of - 95.74, IC02 of - 151.11, and IC03 of - 276.72 [13]. - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 19.74, IF01 of - 37.22, IF02 of - 47.52, and IF03 of - 84.05 [13]. - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 17.1, IH01 of - 22.69, IH02 of - 23.55, and IH03 of - 24.24 [13]. Stock - Index Futures Contract Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM futures, detailed 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) and their corresponding annualized costs are provided [23]. - For IC futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are presented [25]. - For IF futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are given [25]. - For IH futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are shown [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the policy helps promote enterprise technological innovation, industrial upgrading of new - quality productivity, and long - term profitability repair of enterprises, but relevant sectors may face pressure during the elimination of backward production capacity, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The overall view is that the market will be volatile [1] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is in an environment of loose funds, stable economy, and low short - term interest rate cut expectations, with insufficient upward and downward momentum, and is expected to continue a volatile trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1st, policies such as the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and the release of an article in Qiushi magazine were introduced. These policies are beneficial for long - term corporate profitability and A - share investment returns, but relevant sectors may face short - term pressure, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The market is expected to be volatile [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 8th, treasury bond futures closed with some declines. The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan. The capital market is loose, and the economy is stable. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, IH decreased by 9.2 points (- 0.34%), IF decreased by 18.0 points (- 0.46%), IC decreased by 15.0 points (- 0.26%), and IM decreased by 0.6 points (- 0.01%) [2] - **Stock Indexes**: From July 4th to July 7th, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 8.9 points (- 0.33%), the CSI 300 decreased by 17.0 points (- 0.43%), the CSI 500 decreased by 11.0 points (- 0.19%), and the CSI 1000 increased by 14.9 points (0.24%) [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, TS decreased by 0.006 points (- 0.01%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (- 0.03%), T increased by 0.005 points (0.00%), and TL decreased by 0.05 points (- 0.04%) [2] 3.3 Market News - China's foreign exchange reserves in June were 3.317422 trillion US dollars, higher than the expected 3.3 trillion US dollars and the previous value of 3.28526 trillion US dollars [3] - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, and it was the 8th consecutive month of gold purchases [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and consulting qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and consulting qualification number Z0019537 [27]

Report Overview - Report Title: Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report - Report Date: July 7, 2025 Core Views - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contract prices, spreads, and basis, as well as information on contract adjustments and a research team introduction [3][6][24] Summary by Section Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - I05 closed at 689.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I01 remained unchanged at 707.0 yuan/ton [3] - The I05 - I09 spread was -43.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 17.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [3] Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, the basis and its changes are presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines (KRF) being 37 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] Chart - Charts show the basis trends of different types of iron ore, including Brazilian powder ore, Australian medium - grade powder ore, etc. [8] Contract Adjustments - Newly added 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) with brand premiums of 0 for the I2202 contract and later [11] - Adjusted brand premiums for existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton [11] - Modified quality differences and premiums for substitutes, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other elements, and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [11] - Added 4 new deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton [11] Variety Spreads Data - Presented the spreads between different iron ore varieties, such as the PB lump - PB fines spread being 148.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13] Charts - Multiple charts illustrate the spread trends between different iron ore varieties, including block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder ore spreads, etc. [15][17][19] Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field [24]

Group 1: Research Views - On July 3, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2508 closed at 35,050 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.14%. The open interest decreased by 18,097 lots to 76,908 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material rose to 36,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also rose to 36,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract remained stable at 950 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,010 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.93%. The open interest decreased by 5,521 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,738 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon rose to 8,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The latest industry meeting put forward more requirements to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition in the industry, and the implementation of polysilicon production cuts is expected to speed up. Previously, there were news of large-scale production cuts at industrial silicon plants in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon drove polysilicon to rebound upwards. Due to the previous oversold situation, the recovery power of polysilicon was stronger than that of industrial silicon. Recently, there have been frequent news in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic has gradually shifted to polysilicon leading the rise of industrial silicon [2]. - Currently, the high inventory pressure has not been resolved, and there has been no actual improvement in the fundamentals of the two silicons. The news has increased the volatility of the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious and continuously pay attention to the price ratio of the two silicons, track inventory inflection points, and policy trends [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,035 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,050 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, except for some 421 silicon that remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 100 yuan to 165 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 62 to 51,854, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 19,735 tons to 263,720 tons. The inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port decreased by 3,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and 2,000 tons respectively. The industrial silicon factory inventory decreased by 54,860 tons to 211,640 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 70,860 tons to 367,640 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract remained unchanged at 35,050 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 660 yuan/ton to 35,660 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remained at 950 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was 78,000 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 269,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and fine coal prices [5][7][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][19][21] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [24][25][27] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost and profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [30][32][37] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [39][40]

光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.29%，报收 69.43 美分/磅，CF509 环比持平，报收 13785 元 | | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 10792 手至 54.97 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15171 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 35 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15203 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面事件较多，6 月美国非农人口 14.7 | | | 棉花 | 万人，超过市场预期，美元指数走强，美棉价格承压下行。国内市场方面，近期 | 震荡 | | | 郑棉期价以区间震荡为主，上下方破局动力均有限。天气扰动略有升温迹象，新 | | | | 疆部分地区有恶劣天气影响，但本年度整体天气状况良好，丰产预期较强，下游 | | | | 纺织企业开机负荷弱稳，产成品库存累积。整体来看，基本面驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 消息方面，云南 6 月当月销 ...