光大期货煤化工商品日报 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素现货价格多数稳定，山西等价 区域仍有 幅上调。目 山东、河南地区 市场价格分别稳定在1820元/吨、1810元/吨。供应波动不大，昨日尿素行业日产量 | 看涨 | | | 19.94万吨，日环比持平。需求端在市场情绪回暖 动下进一步跟进，现货 价成交 | | | | 明显放量，主流地区产销率多数 升至100%以上，但区域间表现仍有分化，成交偏 | | | | 弱地区产销率在60-70% 右。昨日 间印标价格出 ，东海岸最 价CFR495 元/ | | | | 吨，价格较高，对国内市场情绪存在提振效应，再加上 季 需求支撑、商品市场 | | | | 情绪整体回暖，预计尿素期货价格短期走势仍偏强为主，但保供 价大环 上 高 | | | | 度不宜过分 观。后期关注出口政策变化及出口落 情况。 | | | | 周二纯碱现货报价继续稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪有所回暖，昨日沙河 及周边 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 8th, polysilicon hit the daily limit again due to multiple news. The main contract 2508 closed at 38,385 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 7%. The SMM N-type polysilicon price rose to 39,000 yuan/ton. The spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton compared to the main contract. Industrial silicon showed a slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,215 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.8%. The spot premium narrowed to 215 yuan/ton. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. The market has strong support, and short-selling is not advisable. One can choose to wait and see or take a small long position. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside. A high-selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon is affected by multiple news, hitting the daily limit again. Industrial silicon shows a slightly stronger trend. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,990 yuan/ton on July 7th to 8,195 yuan/ton on July 8th. The spot price of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium decreased from 240 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 36,515 yuan/ton on July 7th to 38,385 yuan/ton on July 8th. The N-type polysilicon price rose from 36,000 yuan/ton to 39,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton. Data for other products were incomplete [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][24] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost and profit of DMC and polysilicon [27][29][32] Group 4: Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [35][36]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3063 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.07%，持仓减少 2.88 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.57 万 | | | | 吨。近期钢坯出口接单有所减弱，唐山地区钢坯库存累积较为明显，同时受需求减弱影响，山东等地的螺 | | | | 纹库存也出现较明显累积，现货市场供需有所走弱。不过目前现货市场矛盾整体累积并不明显，市场对于 | | | | "反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 | | | | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格小幅上涨，收于 733 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨 2 元 /吨，涨幅为 0.3%，成交 23 万 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，9 月合约日内下跌至 2310 的低位，其后价格企稳反弹，期 | | | | 价以十字星收盘。玉米加权合约在连续两个月减仓调整之后，持仓恢复增加，主 | | | | 力合约破位下行，吸引投机资金关注。现货市场方面，受进口玉米拍卖影响，国 | | | | 内多地玉米现货报价承压下行。周末东北玉米深加工收购价格有所下调，因进口 | | | | 玉米拍卖市场情绪略受影响，贸易商售粮心态有所松动，后续继续关注进口玉米 | | | | 的拍卖和成交情况。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏弱运行，进口玉米拍卖持续投 | | | | 放，约每周投放 50 万吨左右，对市场心态有明显影响，在贸易商都有利润的情 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 况下，出货积极性增加，市场供应量较大，深加工企业玉米价格压价收购，价格 | | | | 偏弱。周末销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。周五第二次进口玉米进行拍卖，市 | | | | 场购销情绪减弱，基本溢价 20-40 元/吨。产区贸易商远期看涨，但短期出货变 | | | | 现意愿增强，销区玉米高价 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. International market has limited overall drivers, with the US cotton sown area exceeding expectations and good growth conditions. In the domestic market, low imports, low inventory, and weather disturbances support cotton prices, while new - cotton harvest expectations and weak demand in the off - season limit upward movement [2]. - Sugar is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. Brazilian sugar exports in the first week of July decreased by 34.63% year - on - year. The international raw sugar market lacks new drivers, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage with ample supply and weak price rebounds, but short - term basis support remains [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton fell 0.84% to 67.32 cents/pound, CF509 decreased 0.07% to 13785 yuan/ton, and the main - contract positions decreased by 617 to 543,200 hands. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price was 15175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 677,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease year - on - year. The daily export volume was 169,300 tons. Domestic sugar - making groups and processing plants lowered their quotes. The international raw sugar market awaits macro guidance and northern - hemisphere yield estimates, and the domestic market is about to enter the imported - sugar - dominated stage [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 25 (unchanged), the main - contract basis was 1408 (down 33), the Xinjiang spot price was 15175 yuan/ton (down 1), and the national spot price was 15193 yuan/ton (down 8) [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread was 155 (down 5), the main - contract basis was 333 (down 3), the Nanning spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), and the Liuzhou spot price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10) [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 8, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68 to 9971, with 282 valid forecasts. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 51.3, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.7. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 48.7, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 33.5 [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 8, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6020 yuan/ton (down 20), the Liuzhou price was 6080 yuan/ton (down 10), the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 312 to 23092, and there were 106 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts for cotton and sugar are presented, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices over different time periods, with data from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price continues to price in geopolitical risks and uncertainties in demand due to tariff policies, maintaining an oscillating rhythm. The short - term unilateral drivers of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester markets are not obvious, and they generally follow the cost - end crude oil to oscillate within a range. The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate weakly. The methanol market has eased the near - month supply shortage, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend. The polyolefin market has no significant improvement in fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly. The PVC market has no deterioration in fundamentals, and short - term short - selling is not recommended [1][2][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to move up slightly. Geopolitical factors such as the US considering sanctions on Russia, Houthi attacks on Israeli - related ships, and the upcoming Iran - US nuclear negotiations have an impact on the oil price. The overall oil price continues to oscillate due to geopolitical risks and demand uncertainties [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Tuesday. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil will continue to suppress the Asian market. The short - term unilateral drivers are not obvious, and it follows the cost - end crude oil to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies has not yet appeared, with stable - to - increasing supply in July. The demand in the north is affected by rainfall, and the short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products showed different trends on Tuesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and some polyester and ethylene glycol devices have maintenance or production - related situations. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and ethylene glycol has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter, with prices under pressure [2][4] - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose on Tuesday. The US tire imports increased in the first five months of 2025. The rubber - producing areas have fully entered the tapping season, raw material prices are loose, and downstream tire start - up loads have declined. The rubber inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - **Methanol**: The methanol price situation on Tuesday shows that the Iranian device production is gradually recovering, the near - month supply shortage has eased, the basis has declined, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market prices on Tuesday show that the upstream is still in the maintenance season, the overall supply change is small, the downstream start - up has declined with the arrival of the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China on Tuesday were stable or mainly in consolidation. The chlor - alkali profit has declined, and enterprise start - up has decreased. The fundamentals have not deteriorated, and short - term short - selling is not recommended [5][6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 9, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] 3.3 Market News - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US President has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions on Russia [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [11][13][15][17][19][20][21] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][35][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report presents the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external market spread, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][60][62] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71][72]

2025-07-08 交易内参 光大期货交易内参 金融类 股指： 昨日，A 股市场震荡持平，Wind 全 A 微跌 0.03%，成交额 1.23 万亿元。中证 1000 指 数上涨 0.24%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.19%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.43%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.33%。公用事业、房地产领涨，煤炭回调，板块轮动继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次 会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对 于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是， 本轮"反内卷"政策并未配套类似于 2016 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需 参考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联储降息预 期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国内部博弈过程。目前指 数基本面仍取决于国内经济复苏进程，化债背景下信用收缩、需求不足仍是当前主要矛盾， 指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改 善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股指数短期同样不会出现大幅下 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素现货市场走势分化，主流地区价格波动幅度在-20～20元/吨，目 山东、 | 看涨 | | | 河南地区市场价格分别在1820元/吨、1810元/吨，日环比分别上涨10 元/吨、持平。 | | | | 基本面来看，尿素供应 平小幅回升，昨日行业日产量19.94万吨，日环比增0.35万 | | | | 吨。需求端跟进情绪有所放缓，农业需求 部有所跟进，工业下游 合 行业开始 | | | | 预收 季 款项，但目 行业开工 平仍偏 ，对尿素需求力度有限。昨日主流地 | | | | 区现货产销率分化明 ，行业平均产销率仅为38%。整体来看，尿素期货市场 时缺 | | | | 有效驱动，短期震荡思路对 。后续印标价格结 、出口政策及国内商品市场整 | | | | 体走势扰动仍存，关注出口及国 市场消息面影响。 | | | 业 纯碱 | 周一纯碱现货报价稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪有所波动。昨日沙河及周边 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 7, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat at 63,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 250 yuan/ton to 60,950 yuan/ton. However, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,481 tons to 15,555 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. But due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly output has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile from May to June were basically flat, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently, the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - In the current market, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipt level remains low, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short selling after the sentiment turns can still be monitored. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the prices may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Directory Research Views - Price changes: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: July supply is expected to increase, but weekly output has slowed. Imports are expected to change little. Demand has a slight month - on - month increase, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term strength due to various factors, but future hedging pressure exists, and prices may oscillate widely [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 380 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 1 US dollar/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium phosphate aluminum stone remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton, the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles and micro - powder) fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of various precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells mostly had small increases or remained unchanged [5] Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone over time [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [11][13][15] - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price differences [18][19][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [22][25][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [35][37] - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [39] Team Member Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, etc. Has over a decade of commodity research experience and the team has won many awards [43] - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44] - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44] Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone [47] - Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979, postal code: 200127 [47]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3061 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 11 元/吨，跌幅为 0.36%，持仓减少 4.13 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.59 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.29%至 375.07 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.87%至 174.22 万吨。 | | | | 螺纹热卷库存均呈上升态势，钢材现实驱动有所走弱。上周盘面上涨后基差收敛，淡季下游对现货涨价的 | | | | 接受度不高，部分品种如唐山钢坯近期累库较快，对盘面价格走势存在一定压制。不过目前现货基本面矛 | | | | 盾并不明显，市场对于"反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 ...