Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the market is expected to be volatile. Since June, Chinese assets have performed strongly, with stocks and bonds rising together, pricing in possible policy changes in June. The market style may still favor consumption and technology sectors. The fundamentals in the second quarter may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the market is expected to be volatile. In June, the focus of the bond market has returned to changes in the capital situation. Short - term capital tightening expectations have weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 10, most A - share market indices pulled back. The Wind All - A index fell 0.68% with a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The TMT sector pulled back significantly. There are three factors contributing to the positive outlook for Chinese assets: progress in Sino - US communication, potential changes in long - term consumption stimulus policies, and possible further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum. The PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the fundamentals in the second quarter may be "weak reality, strong expectation". In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has increased by about 4% year - on - year, but the ROE is still in the bottoming - out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 10, treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts. The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2559 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. In June, concerns about short - term capital tightening in the bond market have increased due to factors such as large - scale maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance. However, the central bank's earlier net injection of 5000 billion yuan through 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations has alleviated market concerns, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 10, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with decreases of - 0.62%, - 0.69%, - 0.84%, and - 0.88% respectively. The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices also fell [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 10, the TS, TF, T, and TL contracts showed different trends, with the TF and TL contracts rising slightly, and the TS and T contracts showing small changes [3]. - **Treasury Bond Spot Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds had small fluctuations on June 10 [3]. 3. Market News - China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year [4]. - In May 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts, including the closing prices of corresponding stock index futures over time and the relationship between the futures prices and the spot prices [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, and the exchange rates between the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [20][21][22][24][25].

Group 1: Index Trends - On June 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43% to close at 3399.77 points, with a trading volume of 511.88 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.65% to close at 10250.14 points, with a trading volume of 774.512 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.07% with a trading volume of 255.785 billion yuan, opening at 6161.14, closing at 6218.96, with a daily high of 6226.38 and a low of 6158.9 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.76% with a trading volume of 171.482 billion yuan, opening at 5772.78, closing at 5805.65, with a daily high of 5823.9 and a low of 5765.35 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.08% with a trading volume of 65.216 billion yuan, opening at 2689.73, closing at 2686.83, with a daily high of 2698.36 and a low of 2681.69 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.29% with a trading volume of 262.024 billion yuan, opening at 3877.8, closing at 3885.25, with a daily high of 3894.65 and a low of 3871.99 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 66.12 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine and Biology, and Electronics significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 43.57 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Power Equipment, and Non - Banking Finance significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 11.27 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Medicine and Biology, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as Automobile and Food and Beverage pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 fell 2.02 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Medicine and Biology, and Banks significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as Telecommunications, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Food and Beverage pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 41.51, IM01 of - 133.92, IM02 of - 296.53, and IM03 of - 472.57 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 31.34, IC01 of - 101.99, IC02 of - 213.64, and IC03 of - 339.47 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 15.32, IF01 of - 51.84, IF02 of - 83.42, and IF03 of - 117.23 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 12.08, IH01 of - 43.25, IH02 of - 47.54, and IH03 of - 47.12 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM rollover point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc., for various contract combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) [23]. - Data on IC rollover point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc., for various contract combinations (e.g., IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02) [25]. - Data on IF rollover point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc., for various contract combinations (e.g., IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02) [25]. - Data on IH rollover point differences and their annualized costs were presented, including values at different time points such as 09:45, 10:00, etc., for various contract combinations (e.g., IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02) [27].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点评 9 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34105 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.24%，持 仓减仓 796 手至 64383 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最低 交割品 N 型硅料价格持稳在 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2395 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 7475 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.33%，持仓 增仓 16472 手至 17.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8750 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水收至 245 元/ 吨。西南丰水电价全面下调，叠加硅煤和电极不断下移，工业硅成本重心 持续回调，硅厂丰水季开工水平压产到极限，仍未能扭转当前过剩状态。 需求端变量不多，后续只能仰仗中大型减产动态，工业硅短期延续探底节 奏。多晶硅延续全面降负荷，后续仍有行业自律扩大限产额度可能。新一 轮签单落地，量级有限且现货交易角度引导低品相对高品更抗跌。多晶硅 延续弱势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FU ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格继续下挫，主力09合约收盘价1697 /吨，跌幅1.79%。现货市场 | | | | 同步走弱，主流地区现货价格下跌40~70 /吨不等，目前山东、河南地区市场价格 | | | | 均跌至1760 /吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平再次提升。昨日行业日产量20.51 | | | 尿素 | 吨，日环比增0.64万吨。需求端表现偏弱，下游复合肥行业开工回落，对原料尿素 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 采购偏弱，农业需求距离下一轮释放仍需时日。昨日主流地区尿素产销率维持低位 | | | | 徘徊，个别地区收单超预期。整体来看，尿素供需层面暂无明显利好驱动，期、现 | | | | 市场情绪双双下挫，短期暂无拐头迹象。6月中下旬麦收结束后需求有望逐步释放 | | | | ，届时关注能否给市场带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | | 周一纯碱期货价格震荡走弱，主力09合约收盘价1202元/吨，跌幅0.91%。现货市场 | | | | 同步走弱，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract fell 0.16% to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 58,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) fell 415 yuan/ton to 66,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 190 tons to 33,119 tons [3]. - The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling last Friday. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June was significant. On the demand side, there was no obvious increase in the preliminary production scheduling data of each company. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Overall, the current mining end has no new production cuts, and the oversupply situation will further expand in June. If the lithium salt price strengthens rapidly, production and hedging incentives will reappear, putting pressure on the price. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - The current price level is basically at the stage bottom range, with intensified long-short games. The price may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and lithium hydroxide, as well as the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situation of lithium ore, and the potential impact on price [3]. - The current price level and the need to focus on warehouse receipt conditions [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The price changes of various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other materials, as well as the price differences between different products [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Price - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%, 2.0%-2.5%), and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone (6%-7%, 7%-8%) [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Price - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery-grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price, battery-grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [11][13][15]. 3.3 Spread - Charts present the price differences between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan-Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads, as well as the basis [17][20][22]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Material - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [25][27][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Price - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36][38]. 3.7 Production Cost - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate [40].

Group 1: Research Views Steel - Yesterday, the rebar futures market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a position reduction of 19,700 lots. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading volume remained low. In May 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.578 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,000 tons (1.1%); from January to May, cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a fluctuating and consolidating trend, closing at 703 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.64%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 300,000 lots and a position reduction of 4,000 lots. In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. From a supply - demand perspective, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a fluctuating and consolidating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 780 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 637 lots in open interest. The overall supply is still loose, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market declined. The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1339 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (0.85%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 393 lots in open interest. After the third round of price cuts, the production losses of coke enterprises intensified, and there was a slight inventory build - up in coke enterprises. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The main contract was reported at 5552 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 10,680 lots to 441,300 lots. The supply reduction has limited support for prices, and downstream demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 3261 lots to 223,800 lots. Recently, the supply has increased significantly, while demand is still in need of improvement. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as information on profits and price differences between different varieties [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts of the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, showing the basis data from different contract periods [17][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report shows charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][31][33][34][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - Charts of the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, are presented [39][41][43]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - Charts of the rebar main - contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][48]. Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions, work experience, and professional qualifications introduced [50][51].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨，但大豆盘面榨利差，油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高，远期供应担忧有关。操作上，豆粕 91、15 正套持有，单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一，BMD 棕榈油震荡运行，市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示， 尽管出口需求旺盛，但受到产量温和复苏推动，马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨，环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行，因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面，油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油，蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面，油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加，大豆压榨量增加是主要原因，其次是油脂需求平淡，国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上，短线参与，豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一，鸡蛋期货下跌，主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡，尾盘小幅回收，日收跌 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 1.01% to $9,768.5/ton, SHFE copper主力 rose 0.84% to 79,330 yuan/ton. There is a continuous loss in domestic spot imports. Macro factors show potential for Fed rate cuts in H2 2025, while in China, May CPI and PPI data are weak, and export and import performance varies. LME copper inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, while Comex copper increased. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand is slowing. The market is in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is oscillating weakly, and Shanghai aluminum is oscillating strongly. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and the inventory is under pressure. The increase in US aluminum import tariffs has led to weakening external demand. Electrolytic aluminum is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and is undergoing weak adjustment [2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15,365/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.6% to 121,950 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices are firm, and stainless steel and new energy sectors have their own supply - demand situations. The overall market is in an oscillating state, constrained by downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 2.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, and Comex copper increased by 902 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 118.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 30 yuan/ton. LME lead inventories decreased by 1,300 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the inventory decreased by 6,268 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,014 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.8%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 1,375 tons, and social inventories increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price remained unchanged, and LME tin inventories remained the same. The active - contract import loss decreased from - 17,999 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [6]. 2.2 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][13]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spread for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][17]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.19%，报收 68.34 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 1.09%，报收 13495 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 7811 手至 53.85 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14443 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 12 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14620 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 59 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是主要影响因素，美元指数重 | | | | 心环比小幅下移，美棉价格没有方向驱动。国内市场方面，宏观层面有新消息，中 | | | | 美经贸磋商机制第一次会议于 6 月 9 日在英国伦敦举行，市场情绪提振，郑棉期 | | | | 价重心上移。基本面来看，淡季周期内，下游纺织企业开机负荷相对偏低，周环比 | | | | 下降，产成品库存逐渐累积，织厂原材料库存已经降低近年来同期低位水平，需求 | | | | 端支撑偏弱。展望未来，宏观层 ...