光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 6 月 1 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 647.5 | 652.5 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -55.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 703.0 | 707.5 | -4.5 | I09-I01 | 36.5 | 36.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 666.5 | 671.5 | -5.0 | I01-I05 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - **Methanol**: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]

Group 1: Research Views - The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.21% on Thursday, closing at 67.91 cents per pound, and CF509 closed flat, at 13,245 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 4,771 lots to 530,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,431 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,543 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan per ton from the previous day. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price is expected to move up slightly, but the space depends on subsequent implementation [1]. - As of the end of May, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the previous year. The domestic sugar futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern considering future imported sugar arrival pressure [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread was - 225, down 5; the main contract basis was 1,298, up 19; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,431, unchanged; and the national spot price was 14,543, down 1 [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread was 118, down 7; the main contract basis was 415, up 18; the Nanning spot price was 6,090, unchanged; and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145, unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On June 5, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,939, a decrease of 38 from the previous trading day, with 369 valid forecasts [3]. - On June 5, the domestic cotton arrival prices were 14,431 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,559 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,559 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,770 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On June 5, the yarn comprehensive load was 54.8, down 0.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.4, up 0.1 [3]. - On June 5, the sugar spot prices were 6,090 yuan per ton in Nanning and 6,145 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, both unchanged from the previous day [3]. - On June 5, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 29,893, a decrease of 407 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main polysilicon contract 2507 closed at 34,540 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.27%, and the position decreased by 2,071 lots to 65,802 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium over the main contract expanding to 1,960 yuan/ton. The main industrial silicon contract 2507 closed at 7,135 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.56%, and the position decreased by 3,637 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest has led to the resumption of production, and large factories in the northwest will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large factories in Xinjiang, and the upper pressure stems from high inventory and increasing supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expanded production limit quota. For industrial silicon, a short - selling strategy on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news. The one - sided decline of near - month contracts is limited due to warehouse receipt restrictions, and fluctuations will intensify [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 7,140 yuan/ton. Among the 421 silicon spot prices, the prices in some regions such as the East China, Tianjin Port, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while most 553 silicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 35 yuan to 460 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 494 to 61,309, and the weekly inventory in various ports and factories decreased, with the total social inventory decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 515 yuan/ton to 34,540 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,875 yuan/ton to 36,115 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained stable, with the current lowest deliverable price at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanding by 515 yuan to 1,960 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 110 to 2,030. The weekly inventory in the GFE increased by 13,000 tons to 14,100 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [3]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [4][5][7][10]. 2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][21]. 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][30]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, are also members of the team [32][33].

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米 7 月合约减仓上行，期价在 40 日均线处获得支撑，当日以小阳线收 | | | | 盘。现货市场中，因产区余粮有限，玉米现货报价维持偏强表现。目前，东北产 | | | | 区余粮已相对较少，虽走货情况相对一般，但贸易商低价出货意向一般，报价维 | | | | 持在相对较高的水平。华北地区玉米继续震荡运行。山东深加工企业玉米价格有 | | | | 涨有跌，价格变化幅度在 10-20 元/吨。东北粮源继续补充华北市场，市场整体 | | | 玉米 | 供应量尚可。从市场心态来看，受期货价格下跌影响，玉米看涨预期减弱。销区 | 震荡 | | | 市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂时平稳，端午节后市场购销活跃 | | | | 度不高，新季小麦热度较高，部分下游饲料企业采购小麦拉长玉米头寸。技术上， | | | | 玉米 7 月合约在长短期均线粘合的支撑位企稳，期价短期呈现偏强表现，暂短线 | | | | 参与。 | | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆上涨，创一周以 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" by Guangda Futures, dated June 6, 2025 [1] 1. Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 646.5, 701.0, and 665.0 respectively, with changes of -1.5, -3.5, and -1.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are -54.5, 36.0, and 18.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0, -2.5, and 0.5 compared to the previous day [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The report shows the spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., along with their changes compared to the previous day [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - The report includes charts for block - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][17][18] 4. Exchange Rule Adjustments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made adjustments to the deliverable brands and brand premiums of iron ore futures, including adding new deliverable varieties and adjusting the brand premiums of existing varieties [11] - The adjusted rules apply to contracts from I2312 onwards, and the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts according to the new rules starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of the I2311 contract [12] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. Rebar production continued to fall, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped. Considering the one - day less workweek, the data was neutral. With the entry into the consumption off - season, the market has a weak expectation for future supply and demand. However, the phone call between the leaders of China and the US may ease trade - war sentiment and boost market risk appetite. Short - term rebar futures are expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Port spot prices were mixed. Australian shipments decreased from a high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded from a low level. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Iron - making output continued to decline. With 47 - port and steel - mill imported ore inventories decreasing, the price is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Some coal mines had signs of shutdown and production restrictions due to safety incidents, and there was a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading link, but some coal mines still had high inventories. The coke market has a downward expectation, and steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. Port spot prices fell. Steel mills initiated the third round of price cuts for coke. After two rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises faced production losses, and production enthusiasm weakened. Steel - mill demand for coke decreased as steel production declined. Short - term coke futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5482 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was stable. The manganese silicon price was mainly affected by the overall black - commodity sector sentiment but lacked sustainable support. Terminal demand was weak, and supply reduction support was limited. It is expected to follow the black - commodity sector fluctuations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended weaker, with the main contract closing at 5196 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices were stable. Terminal demand was weak, market sentiment needed boosting, and cost support was weak. Although weekly production has dropped to a low level in recent years, it has not supported the price. It is expected to trade weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, and so did spot prices and trading volume. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all showed a downward trend. Market sentiment was affected by the consumption off - season and international trade relations [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures price dropped, and port spot prices were mixed. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory declined. The price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures price fell, and some spot prices decreased. Supply was affected by safety incidents, and demand was weak due to the coke market's downward expectation [1]. - **Coke**: Futures price declined, and port spot prices dropped. Steel mills' price cuts and weakening demand from the steel sector led to a production slowdown in coking enterprises [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market price was stable. It was mainly driven by sector sentiment, with weak terminal demand and limited supply - reduction support [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures price trended weaker, and spot prices were stable. Weak terminal demand, low market sentiment, and limited cost support led to a weak outlook [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For various black commodities, contract spreads such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month showed different changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties of black commodities changed, including price drops and stability [4]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The profit of different steel - making processes (such as rebar) and cross - commodity spreads (e.g., roll - rebar spread) showed various changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts for different black commodities [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts for each black commodity [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spreads of cross - commodity contracts such as roll - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the historical profits of rebar in different production processes (main - contract surface profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) [45][46][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Stronger oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Stronger [1] - Glass: Stronger oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market has no obvious positive drivers, but subsequent demand is expected to provide some support. The urea futures price is expected to rebound after breaking through the low point of the past five months [1]. - Soda ash supply recovers, demand is weakly stable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The soda ash futures price is expected to maintain a stronger state in the short - term, but the market will continue to face pressure in the long - term [1]. - The glass supply and demand situation has not substantially improved, but news of production restrictions, rising coal prices, and improved macro - trade environment will boost the futures market. The glass futures price is expected to be mainly in a stronger oscillation [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On June 5, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 6357, a decrease of 52 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [3]. - On June 5, the daily output of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate was 87.27%, a 6.01 - percentage - point increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [3]. - As of June 4, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons or 5.59% from last week [3]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 5, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 142 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 2539; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of the week of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the soda ash output was 704,100 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons or 2.78% week - on - week [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.627 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons or 0.17% from last Thursday [5]. - As of June 5, the average price of the float glass market was 1,207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 156,800 tons, unchanged day - on - day [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.092 million weight boxes or 3.09% month - on - month, and an increase of 20.15% year - on - year. The inventory days were 31.3 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week [6] Group 4: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen [26] - Zhang Xiaojin focuses on sugar industry research [26] - Zhang Linglu is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [26] - Sun Chengzhen is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Report (June 6, 2025) [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The previous day, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.43% to 60,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) all declined. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 140 tons to 33,321 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices continued to fall. On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons, with expected further increase in June. On the demand side, cathode production data was average, but cathode inventory was digested, and terminal sales were strong. The weekly inventory increased by 861 tons to 132,432 tons, with downstream inventory slightly decreasing and upstream and intermediate inventories increasing [3]. - Overall, the fundamentals have not substantially improved, and intensified gaming should be noted at current price levels [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.43% to 60,100 yuan/ton. Battery-grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 60,200 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price fell 50 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton, battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased 150 yuan/ton to 62,270 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 150 yuan/ton to 67,415 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 140 tons to 33,321 tons [3]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: Weekly output increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes increased, while that from recycled materials decreased. With some enterprises planning to resume production in June, the output is expected to increase by 9.4% to 78,900 tons [3]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: Cathode production data was average, but cathode inventory was continuously digested, especially the inventory turnover days of lithium iron phosphate significantly decreased. The cell end continued to slow down, but terminal sales were still remarkable, and the penetration rate remained high [3]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Weekly inventory increased by 861 tons to 132,432 tons. Downstream inventory decreased slightly, while upstream and intermediate inventories increased [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Lithium - Related Product Prices**: Most prices of lithium - related products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain declined, such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some precursors. Some prices remained unchanged, like lithium mica, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), and hexafluorophosphate lithium [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 350 yuan/ton, while the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithiophilite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different lithium - related products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [22][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from October 2024 to May 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]