Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力09合约收盘价1667元/吨，跌幅1.48%。现货市场 局部继续下调，部分主流地区市场价格昨日继续下降10~30元/吨。局部工厂报价维 | | | | 持稳定，但实际仍有较大出货压力，本周尿素企业库存增幅高达13.69%，进一步压 | | | | 制市场情绪。供应来看，近期尿素日产水平高位波动，昨日20.63万吨，日环比增0.2 | | | 尿素 | 万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧不足，一方面，价格持续下行过程中中下游接货情绪受 | 震荡 | | | 限，另一方面，农业需求依旧分散，工业需求支撑有限。昨日主流地区尿素现货成 | | | | 交率10%-50%。整体来看，当前尿素供需层面支撑不足，出口相关动态对市场仍有 | | | | 扰动。期货盘面弱势状态短期仍难以扭转，后期关注需求释放力度、出口相关政策 | | | | 、成本支撑等逻辑能否给盘面带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | | 周三纯碱期货价格宽幅波动，主 ...

Index Trends - On June 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to close at 3402.32 points with a trading volume of 501.807 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to close at 10246.02 points with a trading volume of 753.651 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.4% with a trading volume of 243.671 billion yuan, opening at 6162.16, closing at 6186.51, with a daily high of 6221.2 and a low of 6162.16 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.61% with a trading volume of 161.354 billion yuan, opening at 5758.53, closing at 5792.95, with a daily high of 5818.57 and a low of 5758.53 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% with a trading volume of 66.528 billion yuan, opening at 2676.67, closing at 2692.14, with a daily high of 2704.45 and a low of 2676.67 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% with a trading volume of 66.528 billion yuan, opening at 2676.67, closing at 2692.14, with a daily high of 2704.45 and a low of 2676.67 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 24.82 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, media, and electronics significantly pulled the index up, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 34.96 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as automobiles, non - bank finance, and power equipment significantly pulled the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 29.16 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.74 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - bank finance, banks, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled the index up, while the electronics sector pulled it down [3]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 32.9, IM01 of - 126.39, IM02 of - 286.78, and IM03 of - 460.32 [14]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 24.61, IC01 of - 98.13, IC02 of - 204.24, and IC03 of - 327.04 [14]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 13.64, IF01 of - 52.63, IF02 of - 80.48, and IF03 of - 107.98 [14]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 11.11, IH01 of - 42.08, IH02 of - 47.99, and IH03 of - 48.09 [14]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time points are provided, including details such as IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. at 15 - minute intervals [24][26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, is expected to be in low - level consolidation. The rebar spot has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but it has entered the consumption off - season, and the market has weak expectations for future supply and demand. The rebar futures 2510 contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 31,500 lots in positions [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined from a high level. The global iron ore shipments have increased, and the iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1,000 lots in positions [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. For coking coal, some mines in the producing areas have stopped production, and the coke has been reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. For coke, the inventory of coking enterprises has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions [1]. - The ferrosilicon - manganese market is likely to be in low - level oscillation. The weekly output of ferrosilicon - manganese has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the supply, demand, and cost support are all insufficient. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots [1]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant has stopped a 33000kva furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The market has entered the consumption off - season, and the expected supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price of rebar 2510 contract was 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day, and the inventory decreased by 31,500 lots. The spot price in Tangshan was 2900 yuan/ton, and in Hangzhou it was 3060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 99,800 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian shipments increased, while Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The port spot prices decreased, and the 47 - port imported iron ore inventory and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to decline [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose. Some mines in the producing areas stopped production, and the coke was reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose. The downstream steel mills' procurement willingness was low, and the coking enterprises' inventory continued to accumulate. After three price cuts, the coking enterprises' losses increased, and some reduced production. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon - Manganese**: The ferrosilicon - manganese futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the demand and cost support are limited. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots. The market price of 6517 ferrosilicon - manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant stopped a furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots. The spot price in most regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon, including 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc [4]. - **Basis**: The latest and环比 data of basis for different varieties are given, like the basis of rebar 10 - contract, hot - rolled coils 10 - contract, etc [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest and环比 data of spot prices in different regions for each variety are presented, for example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and the spot price of iron ore PB powder and super - special powder [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The latest and环比 data of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc) are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1主力合约价格**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.3.2主力合约基差**: Charts display the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar RB2010 - RB2510, hot - rolled coils HC2010 - HC2510, etc [16][17][18]. - **3.3.3跨期合约价差**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts of each variety, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, etc [24][25][27]. - **3.3.4跨品种合约价差**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc [39][40][42]. - **3.3.5螺纹钢利润**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **邱跃成**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, holding multiple industry honors [51]. - **张笑金**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won many industry awards [51]. - **柳浠**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in science, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **张春杰**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, having passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.99% to 67.67 cents per pound on Tuesday, while CF509 rose 0.41% to 13,520 yuan per ton. The cotton price is expected to move up in a volatile manner. The short - term U.S. cotton will be in a volatile state due to limited fundamental drivers and macro - level influence. In the domestic market, the cotton price has a slight upward shift due to sentiment and a small improvement in开机. However, there is still high uncertainty and limited upside potential. Attention should be paid to the results of China - U.S. economic and trade consultations and the operating load of textile enterprises [1]. - For sugar, Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, a 2% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in June last year. The sugar price is expected to be weak in a volatile way. The raw sugar futures price continues to consolidate at a low level, and the domestic sugar market will maintain a weak consolidation pattern before the future import situation becomes clear [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton closed at 67.67 cents per pound, down 0.99%, and CF509 closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 0.41%. The main contract's open interest was basically flat. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,644 yuan per ton, up 159 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,743 yuan per ton, up 123 yuan. The macro - level is the main influencing factor in the international market, and the short - term U.S. cotton is volatile. In the domestic market, the China - U.S. economic and trade consultation meetings are held, and the downstream yarn comprehensive operating load has a slight increase while the inventory is accumulating. The cotton price has a small upward shift, but the upside is limited [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 783,197.58 tons of sugar in the first week of June, with an average daily export volume of 156,639.52 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in June last year. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups are stable. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to increased production expectations and remains weak. The domestic sugar market is supported by a strong basis, but will continue the weak consolidation pattern before the import situation is clear [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 contract spread is - 225 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,223 yuan, up 98 yuan. The cotton price in Xinjiang is 14,644 yuan per ton, up 159 yuan, and the national price is 14,743 yuan per ton, up 123 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 contract spread is 106 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis is 413 yuan, up 17 yuan. The sugar price in Nanning is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 6,130 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,815, down 20 from the previous trading day, with 337 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,644 yuan per ton, Henan 14,780 yuan per ton, Shandong 14,763 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 14,955 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.6, up 0.2 from the previous day, and the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.4, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.2, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.1, up 0.3 [3]. - **Sugar**: On June 10, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 6,130 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 29,443, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index of cotton futures [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar futures [14][15][16]. 3.5 Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects and book - writing, and has won many analyst awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange textile category senior analyst title [21].

Index Trends - On June 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 3384.82 points, with a trading volume of 557.428 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to close at 10162.18 points, with a trading volume of 857.931 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.92% with a trading volume of 277.218 billion yuan, opening at 6220.04, closing at 6161.69, with a high of 6220.04 and a low of 6098.09 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.82% with a trading volume of 182.98 billion yuan, opening at 5809.83, closing at 5757.99, with a high of 5810.92 and a low of 5715.97 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.39% with a trading volume of 76.949 billion yuan, opening at 2690.87, closing at 2676.4, with a high of 2700.18 and a low of 2670.15 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 57.27 points from the previous close, with the computer and electronics sectors significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 47.66 points from the previous close, with the national defense and military industry, computer, and electronics sectors significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 10.43 points from the previous close, with the non - ferrous metals, banking, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors boosting the index, while the electronics, food and beverage, and non - banking finance sectors dragging it down [2]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 43.72, IM01 of - 133.37, IM02 of - 296.42, and IM03 of - 470.15 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.84, IC01 of - 105.05, IC02 of - 213.92, and IC03 of - 337.2 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 19.32, IF01 of - 56.45, IF02 of - 85.82, and IF03 of - 115.62 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 14.31, IH01 of - 45.58, IH02 of - 50.4, and IH03 of - 50.32 [13]. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and annualized costs of IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time points are presented in the report, including specific point differences and corresponding annualized costs [23][24][26]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格先扬后抑，波动幅度提升。截至收盘主力09合约报1678元/吨， 跌幅1.24%。现货市场局部止跌企稳，少部分地区仍有下调。山东、河南地区市场 | | | | 价格昨日均稳定在1760元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平高位波动，昨日行业日 | | | | 产量20.28万吨，日环比降0.23万吨。需求端跟进力度依旧欠缺，主流地区现货产销 | | | 尿素 | 率昨日7%-70%区间波动，国内整体产销率31%。6月下旬需求仍有释放预期，但当 | 震荡 | | | 前对市场情绪扰动较多的仍是出口相关动态。在看到更加确定性的驱动之前，尿素 | | | | 产业心态依旧偏弱。期货市场弱势状态暂时难以扭转，后期关注需求释放力度、出 | | | | 口相关政策、成本支撑等逻辑能否给盘面带来止跌企稳迹象。 | | | | 周二纯碱期货价格坚挺震荡，主力09合约收盘价1208元/吨，微幅下跌0.41%。现货 | | | | 市场报价多数稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper is expected to continue its volatile pattern for some time, with the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton being closely watched. Favorable factors for bulls include a weak US dollar, inventory reduction, low inventory levels, tight domestic spot supply, and uncertainty over potential tariff hikes in the US 232 investigation. Key bearish factors are the US government's inconsistent tariff stance and the resulting uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1]. - Aluminum is undergoing a weak adjustment. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, leading to increased pressure on spot inventory. The reduction in bauxite price support has caused alumina prices to adjust based on cost. Aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but the speed of turnover and inventory reduction has slowed down. The price of aluminum alloy may fluctuate around the Baotai price in the short - term [1][2]. - Nickel is expected to remain range - bound. Although the cost of raw materials is firm and the fundamentals of primary nickel are improving, upward movement is restricted by weak downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper fell 0.45% to $9,725/ton, and SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.13% to 79,030 yuan/ton. Domestic spot imports are in a continuous loss. In May, US consumers' inflation expectations declined for the first time since 2024, and consumer confidence improved. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. LME copper inventory decreased to 120,400 tons, Comex copper inventory increased to 173,215 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 33,746 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts increased to 804 tons. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand orders are gradually slowing down [1]. Aluminum - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract AD2511 closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 4.49%. Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AO2509 closing at 2,888 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Shanghai aluminum also showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AL2507 closing at 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,262 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and inventory pressure is increasing. The reduction in bauxite price support has led to an adjustment in alumina prices based on cost. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the arrival of aluminum ingots has decreased, but the speed of inventory reduction has slowed down [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,330/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 121,360 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased to 198,126 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased to 21,041 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices are firm, and domestic nickel - iron transaction prices show a slight rebound. In the stainless - steel sector, raw material prices are stable, and inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Production cuts in China and Indonesia in June will gradually ease the overall oversupply situation, but in the medium - term, it will still be constrained by weak terminal demand. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is little new demand in June. In June, the supply of primary nickel continued to decline month - on - month, and domestic weekly inventory decreased [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 119 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also increased. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,672 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) remained unchanged [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the prices of recycled lead products also rose. The price of lead concentrate at the factory increased by 100 yuan/ton in some areas. - Inventory: LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened. The price of some aluminum alloy products decreased, and the processing fee of some downstream aluminum products increased. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the social inventory of alumina increased by 4.1 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some stainless - steel products also declined. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of new - energy nickel products decreased. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 966 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 151 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel decreased by 2,178 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price of zinc decreased by 1.2%, and the prices of spot zinc and zinc alloy products dropped. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons, SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price of tin increased by 0.3%, and the spot price and the price of tin concentrate rose. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 735 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2025. These charts visually display the historical trends of relevant data [7][8][13][20][26][32][39]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won multiple industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a focus on lithium and nickel research [47].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-06-10 2025-06-09 | | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60760 | 60700 | 60 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 61000 | 60540 | 460 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 628 | 628 | 0 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 675 | 675 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1185 | 1185 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5620 | 5620 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（L ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米继续减仓上行，近月期价跟随现货上涨，近月领涨、远期合约跟涨， 坚挺，低价出货意向稍显一般。东北深加工主流收购价格与产区基本顺价，对行 上调 10-20 元/吨。前期到货的东北粮源陆续消化完毕，华北本地小麦开始收割 上市，贸易商主要开始小麦的收割。周末河南地区启动小麦最低保护价收购政策。 | 震荡 | | | 长阳线打破近期慢涨模式。现货市场方面，东北产区余粮有限，贸易商心态较为 | | | | 情也暂无明显不利影响。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行，深加工企业普遍 | | | 玉米 | 周末销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂无较大变化，新季小麦 | | | | 继续上市，各企业关注小麦价格较多，小麦与玉米到部分饲料厂基本同价，小麦 | | | | 替代优势较大。技术上，玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场，期价快速拉升，现货 | | | | 强势对期货的提振体现出来，近月率先领涨，近远月价差拉大。其后，远月跟随 | | | | 近月上行，在玉米和淀粉的对比 ...