Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.38% to close at 66.28 cents per pound, while CF601 decreased 0.72% to close at 13,885 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 7,881 lots to 505,400 lots. In the international market, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strong and rising, the U.S. dollar index is oscillating weakly, and the center of the U.S. cotton futures price has moved slightly higher, but the upward drive is weak. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are oscillating weakly, and the market is more concerned about the pressure brought by the expected high - yield of new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton in new cotton areas is not expected to exceed 6.5 yuan per kilogram. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks clear support and is expected to oscillate at a low level. Future attention should be paid to the opening price of new cotton [2]. - **Sugar**: It is expected that Vietnam's sugarcane output in the 25/26 season will exceed 1.334 million tons, and sugar output will exceed 137,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.24%. The spot price quotations are stable or slightly down. The northern hemisphere's crop growth prospects are good but lack a boost, and the futures price continues to be weak and hits a new low. The domestic spot market is dominated by processed sugar, and the quotation continues to decline slightly. With future imported sugar and the opening of sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, market pressure needs to be released, and the futures price is expected to continue to bottom out. Future attention should be paid to the pre - sale of new sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: Analyzes the price trends of ICE U.S. cotton and Zhengzhou cotton futures, and the factors affecting them, including international interest rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index, and domestic new cotton production expectations [2]. - **Sugar**: Mentions the expected sugar production in Vietnam, spot price quotations, and the factors affecting the futures price, such as the northern hemisphere's crop situation and domestic market supply [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | Spot | Latest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 45 | - 15 | 1543 | 107 | Xinjiang | 15350 | 0 | | | | | | | | National | 15428 | - 8 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 16 | 0 | 408 | - 4 | Nanning | 5880 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5935 | 0 | [3] 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 8, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 139 to 5,571, with 0 valid forecasts. The market prices of cotton in different domestic regions are provided, and the load and inventory data of yarn and short - fiber cloth are also given [4]. - **Sugar**: On September 8, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 374 to 12,102, with 6 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc.) [7][10][14][17]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素现货价格继续偏弱运行，主流地区市场价格回落 10～30 元/吨不等，山东、 河南地区市场价格分别为 1680 元/吨、1690 元/吨，日环比均下降 10 元/吨。基本面 | | | | 来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量 18.54 万吨，日环比增 0.09 万吨。需 | | | 尿素 | 求端情绪依旧偏弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率 10%～100%不等，支撑不足。市场多 | 宽幅震荡 | | | 等待印标最终结果，消息方面扰动也依旧存在。预计尿素期货价格短期继续宽度波动 | | | | 为主，跟随印标结果题材仍有反复可能，持续关注印标动态、国内市场情绪变化。 | | | | 周一纯碱现货市场报价稳定，贸易商报价继续跟随盘面情绪波动，昨日沙河地区重碱 | | | | 送到价格 1203 元/吨，日环比跌 9 元/吨。基本面来看，行业检修和装置复产交替进 | | | | 行，生产水平波幅提升。昨日行业日度开工率 88.71 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约涨 0.89%至 74800 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 150 元/吨至 74600 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 150 元/吨至 72350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 75350 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 830 吨至 34948 吨。 2. 消息面，宜春市生态环境局发布，根据江西省生态环境厅的决策部署，我市已于近期启动生态环境 违法行为查处"利剑行动"，依法严厉打击非法排污、生态破坏等生态环境违法行为，持续改善我市 生态环境质量。本次"利剑行动"将重点查处无证排污，擅自停运或不正常运行污染防治设施，通 过暗管等逃避监管的方式排放污染物等环境违法行为。对任何形式的生态环境违法行为，一经发现， 必将依法严惩，绝不姑息。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比小幅增加，周度产量环比增加 389 吨至 19419 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 160 吨至 12409 吨，锂 ...

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 09 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场连续第二日上涨，Wind 全 A 收涨 0.7%，成交额 2.46 万亿 | | | | 元。中证 1000 指数上涨 0.9%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.13%，沪深 300 指数上涨 | | | | 0.16%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.08%。8 月以来，A 股行情呈现"缩圈"态势，个 | | | | 别题材交易拥挤度较高，考虑到前期获利盘了解等因素，短期回调属于正常 | | | | 现象。长期来看，美联储会议表态偏鸽，市场计价年内多次降息，A 股同样 | | | | 受益。此外，上海调整住房限购政策、公积金贷款政策和商业住房贷款利率 | | | 股指 | 定价机制，扩大潜在购房需求，地产银行板块上涨。此前，中共中央办公厅、 | 偏强 | | | 国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式 | | | | 在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管 | | | | 总量仍有提升空间，但对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][5][7] Report's Core View - The oil price has partially digested the negative impact of the production increase, but the rebound height is constrained by the weakening demand, and it will fluctuate repeatedly. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC will also show oscillating trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and seasonal factors [1][2][3][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices stabilized slightly at a low level. OPEC+ 8 - member countries' production increase policy was stronger than expected, but the actual output increase was weaker than market expectations. The crude oil market has partially digested the negative impact of the production increase, and the oil price will fluctuate repeatedly [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals will continue to be suppressed. The prices of FU and LU are affected by the cost - end crude oil [2] - **Asphalt**: It showed a relatively strong performance last week. With the low - level operation and continuous decline of commercial inventory, and the expected improvement in supply - demand contradiction in September, the price may have further upward space [2] - **Polyester**: PX supply is recovering, and the fundamentals of TA are expected to improve. The near - month price of ethylene glycol is relatively strong, but the improvement in downstream demand in the peak season is less than expected [3] - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber production decreased month - on - month, and domestic imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory is being depleted, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Methanol**: Domestic device maintenance is frequent recently, and the supply is at a phased low. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [7] - **Polyolefin**: Supply will remain high, and demand is picking up. The fundamentals are not significantly contradictory, but the overall price will show an oscillating and weakening pattern [7] - **PVC**: Supply remains high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 8, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9] Market News - OPEC+ held an oil production meeting, and 8 member countries agreed to increase the daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in October. The OPEC Secretariat received the latest over - production compensation plans from 6 countries [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Presents the historical closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025 through multiple charts [13][14][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: Displays the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025 [29][30][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Shows the historical spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical varieties [44][46][49] - **Inter - variety Spread**: Illustrates the historical spread and ratio trends between different varieties of energy and chemical products [60][63][65] - **Production Profit**: Presents the historical production profit trends of some energy and chemical products [68][70][71] Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the light - period energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75] Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic urea supply is at a low level, and there are expectations for an increase in industrial downstream operations and autumn fertilizers in demand. However, the fluctuations on both the supply and demand sides are currently relatively limited. The market's focus next week lies in the final results of the Indian tender. If the procurement volume and China's supply volume exceed expectations, it will still provide a phased boost to the market, and the futures market will continue to operate strongly, with the fluctuation range increasing again. Otherwise, market pressure will remain [5]. - Recently, the fundamentals of soda ash have shown little fluctuation, and the supply - demand support is insufficient. The warming of macro - sentiment and the continued fermentation of the anti - involution theme will bring emotional support to the market. The soda ash futures price may bottom out in the short term, but it should be treated as a rebound for now. A trend - like upward movement still requires more positive factors to materialize [6]. - Overall, there has been no obvious change in the supply - demand situation of glass, but the market may later trade on external factors such as macro - economic recovery and anti - involution. The futures market shows obvious signs of a phased bottom [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Materials in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of September 5, the weekly change rates of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass were - 2.11%, + 0.31%, and + 1.36% respectively. The performance of related varieties this week was differentiated, with urea being the weakest and glass the strongest [12][14]. - **Raw Material Prices**: This week, coal prices showed minor fluctuations. For example, the Qinhuangdao Youhun动力煤 (5500) closing price decreased from 692 yuan/ton on August 29 to 682 yuan/ton on September 4. The prices of LNG in various regions in China also fluctuated. The prices of raw salt mostly remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 3.59% week - on - week [17][21][24]. 3.2 Urea: Monitor Export Dynamics and Indian Tender Results - **Prices**: This week, the urea futures price weakened significantly, with a sharp decline on Wednesday. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1713 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.11%. The spot price also showed a weakening trend. As of Friday, the market prices in Shandong and Henan were 1690 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively, down 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [5]. - **Supply**: Recently, there have been more urea maintenance and short - term shutdowns. The daily output of the industry still fluctuates around 180,000 tons. As of Friday, the daily output was 184,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.66% from the previous Friday. It is expected that the daily output will continue to fluctuate at a low level next week [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the urea enterprise inventory increased by 0.85% to 1.095 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 3.48% to 620,900 tons. Although exports are ongoing and the port collection volume is rising, the enterprise inventory is still accumulating [5]. - **Demand**: The domestic rigid demand for urea is weak. It is currently the off - season for agricultural demand, and the downstream industry's operation is restricted by environmental protection. After the military parade, some downstream operations may recover, but due to the previous raw material reserves of some downstream enterprises, the subsequent procurement demand may not increase significantly. Therefore, exports are still the core factor affecting urea demand [5]. - **Indian Tender**: The results of the new round of Indian tenders are being announced. India received 5.66 million tons of supply bids this time, with the lowest price on the east coast at $462.45/ton, a decrease of $69.55/ton from the previous tender. Although the price has dropped, India's inventory is low, and the final procurement volume may exceed the original plan. The participation probability of Chinese supplies in this tender is high, and the market expects the actual supply volume to far exceed expectations [5]. - **Exports**: The window period for urea exports this year is about to end, and all export goods need to be declared before October 15. This means that there is still a possibility of further release of export demand in the next 1 - 2 months, and the fulfillment of export orders will also be further enhanced [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Limited Supply - Demand Support, External Factors Provide New Support - **Prices**: This week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1302 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.31%. The spot price partially declined at the beginning of the week and remained stable in the second half of the week. The price of heavy soda delivered in the Shahe area on Friday was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [6]. - **Supply**: This week, the industry supply increased significantly. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.22%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75 percentage points, and the output was 751,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.53%. It is expected that the supply level will continue to rise next week [6]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of soda ash decreased by 2.43% week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons. However, due to a more than 40,000 - ton increase in social inventory this week, the overall supply in the middle and upper reaches is still slightly increasing [6]. - **Demand**: Recently, the demand for soda ash has been weakly stable. The daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are stable at 159,600 tons and 88,600 tons respectively. Next week, there will be new production lines for float glass, and there is an expectation of an increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which is beneficial for the recovery of rigid demand for soda ash. Currently, downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [6]. 3.4 Glass: Obvious Bottom Characteristics in the Futures Market, Monitor External Factors for Boost - **Prices**: This week, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1189 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.36%. The spot price slightly recovered, with the average market price of domestic float glass on Friday at 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [7]. - **Supply**: Recently, the glass supply level has remained stable, with the daily melting volume in production at 159,600 tons. However, some production lines that were ignited earlier are expected to start production next week, and the glass output may increase [7]. - **Inventory**: This week, the glass enterprise inventory increased by 0.77% week - on - week to 63.05 million weight cases. The slight accumulation of inventory with stable supply reflects the weak demand [7]. - **Demand**: Recently, the glass demand has been average. Logistics control in the north has led to weak production and sales in some areas. The weekly apparent consumption of glass this week was 1.0828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.09%. There is an expectation of a recovery in spot transactions in the future, but attention should be paid to whether there will be concentrated procurement in the market after the macro - environment warms up [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pressure on steel remains significant, and the valuation of steel is moderately low. For rebar, production slightly declined, inventory continued to rise for the sixth consecutive week with an increasing amplitude, and apparent demand dropped. However, as steel prices fell, the cost support has strengthened, and it is expected that the rebar futures will move in a narrow range in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, production slightly decreased, inventory continued to accumulate, and apparent demand significantly declined. But due to the high - level prosperity of the construction machinery industry, hot - rolled coil demand still shows strong resilience, and it is predicted that the hot - rolled coil futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. For iron ore, the price first declined and then rose, and attention should be paid to the steel demand situation [152][153]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel 1. Price - This week, black - series commodities first declined and then rose. Iron ore showed strong performance, coke slightly declined, and steel fluctuated within a narrow range. Futures prices of rebar 2601, hot - rolled coil 2601, etc. had different degrees of changes, and spot prices also varied. International market hot - rolled coil prices fluctuated slightly, with some regions rising and some falling. Various steel price spreads such as basis, futures and spot spreads, and inter - month spreads also changed [6][7]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread narrowed, and the 1 - 5 spread remained flat. The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread widened, and the 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The screw - ore ratio and screw - coke ratio both narrowed [37][40][41]. 2. Supply - In July, the output of rebar decreased year - on - year, while the output of medium - thick wide - strip steel increased year - on - year. In mid - August, the daily average output of pig iron and crude steel of key steel enterprises increased month - on - month [44][46]. - The weekly output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The weekly output of rebar in the northern region decreased, while that in the southern and eastern regions slightly increased. The output of short - process and long - process rebar enterprises both declined [52][59][66]. - The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily average pig iron output significantly decreased. The electric furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and steel mill scrap inventory also declined [68][74]. 3. Demand - The national building materials trading volume increased, the Hangzhou rebar delivery volume decreased, and the cement delivery volume decreased. The building materials trading volume in the southern region decreased, while that in the eastern and northern regions increased, and the cement mill operating rate increased [80][88]. - The apparent demand for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and passenger car sales all increased [94][101]. 4. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 328,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85,000 tons. The total rebar inventory increased by 166,100 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 843,700 tons. The rebar inventory in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou slightly decreased [105][111][118]. - The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 88,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 706,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in Tianjin, Lecong, Shanghai, and Chengdu all increased [124][130]. 5. Profit - The disk profits of rebar 01 contract and hot - rolled coil 01 contract both narrowed. The gross profit of Jiangsu steel mills' rebar and the profit of East China electric furnace steel both decreased [133][137]. 6. Trading Data - This week, the positions, trading volumes, and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coil all increased [139]. 7. Options - For rebar options, historical volatility and related ratios such as the put - call ratio of positions and trading volumes were presented [142][147]. Iron Ore 1. Price - This week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose, with the main contract i2601 closing at 789.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices varied, and the block - powder spread narrowed. The 1 - 5 spread widened [155][166][172]. - The black - series product ratios such as the screw - ore ratio and coke - ore ratio changed [177]. 2. Supply - Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.33 million tons month - on - month [184]. 3. Demand - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 112,900 tons month - on - month to 2.2884 million tons, and the ore handling volume decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month [72]. 4. Inventory - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 620,000 tons month - on - month, the trading ore inventory decreased by 530,000 tons month - on - month, and the total imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 670,000 tons month - on - month, with an imported ore inventory - to - consumption ratio of 31.85 [154]. 5. Trading Data - The trading volume, positions, trading amount, and settled funds of iron ore futures changed, and the number of warehouse receipts was also presented [180].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different black commodities: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation with a weakening trend), coke (fluctuation with a weakening trend), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the production of rebar decreased slightly, inventory accumulated significantly, and apparent demand declined. With prices hitting the cost - line, cost support strengthened, and short - term rebar futures are expected to move in a narrow range [1] - For iron ore, supply increased while demand decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and a decline in molten iron production. With a mixed situation of long and short factors, short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, production increased as some mines resumed operations, while demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For coke, although the coking association resisted price cuts, the weakening of coking coal prices led to a marginal increase in supply. With high steel billet inventory and weak steel prices, short - term coke futures are expected to fluctuate with a weakening trend [1] - For manganese silicon, production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased, and costs decreased slightly. With no strong driving force in the fundamentals, short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - For ferrosilicon, production enterprises are in a loss - making state, steel procurement prices decreased, and there is no strong driving force in the short - term fundamentals. Short - term ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and electricity prices [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. This week, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons week - on - week to 218.68 tons, social inventory increased by 14.89 tons to 468.66 tons, factory inventory increased by 1.72 tons to 171.34 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton (1.9%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume and positions. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, while molten iron production decreased by 11.29 tons to 228.84 tons. The profitability of steel mills declined, and port inventory increased while steel mill inventory decreased [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (1.04%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production increased as some mines resumed operations, and downstream demand was weak [1] - **Coke**: The futures contract 2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (0.78%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Port spot prices decreased. Although the coking association resisted price cuts, supply increased marginally due to the weakening of coking coal prices, and demand was cautious [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5730 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in most regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production continued to increase, steel procurement prices decreased significantly, and costs decreased slightly [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Market prices in some regions decreased. Production enterprises are in a loss - making state, and steel procurement prices decreased [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of different contracts for various commodities changed. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 82.0, down 10.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil was 16.0, up 5.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for various commodities also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 195.0, down 1.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 21.0, down 9.0 [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the price of rebar in Shanghai was 3230.0, unchanged; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3350.0, up 10.0 [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: The profits and spreads of different commodities also changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 22.7, down 6.7; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 196.0, up 3.0 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - commodity contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55] Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.05% to 73,420 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 75,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 72,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 75,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 830 tons to 34,948 tons [3]. - Regarding the policy inspection of the compliance of mining rights for salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) stated that the company's mining business is fully compliant and its production and operation are stable [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. In September, the lithium carbonate output is expected to increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons, mainly from lithium - spodumene extraction and a small amount from lithium recycling. In terms of demand, the output of ternary materials in September decreased by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while that of lithium iron phosphate increased by 6% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline significantly, with the weekly inventory decreasing by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons [3]. - Affected by market news, the futures price rose rapidly yesterday with an intraday amplitude of 4.57%. There is still great uncertainty in the Jiangxi mining end, and there are many market rumors. The market may still fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 73,420 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan. The price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,157.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,865 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 75,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,820 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium remained unchanged at 56,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and lithium salt prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [11][14]. - **Price differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursors and cathode materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. - **Lithium battery prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium - iron - phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid battery cells, and square lithium - iron - phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January 16, 2025, to September 4, 2025 [37][39]. - **Production costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly. The US service industry data showed mixed signals, with strong orders but a contracting employment index and high prices. Weak employment data strengthened market expectations of a Fed rate cut. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex copper inventory increased, and domestic social copper inventory rose. Despite the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the consumption peak was not well - reflected in inventory performance. Although there are expectations of fundamental improvement, the upward price movement may be limited by the US recession expectations and high copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's复产 rhythm increased, and warehouse receipts began to accumulate, intensifying the oversupply expectation. However, due to factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and China's parade period, there were strong disturbances in the ore end. Downstream sectors started stocking up quickly before the "Golden September" peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. Aluminum industry profits are shifting from upstream to downstream. Under the dual - drive of the Fed rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum, and there is room for the far - month spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. In the new energy sector, ternary demand is strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. With the marginal improvement of nickel - iron and new energy, opportunities for buying at low prices can be considered [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data from the US influenced market expectations. Inventory changes were mixed, and the domestic consumption season may boost refined copper consumption, but there are constraints on price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price trends were weak, with changes in inventory and supply - demand relationships. Ore - end disturbances and downstream stocking behavior affected the market, and there were expectations of price increases for electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price declines and inventory changes were observed. Different sectors related to nickel, such as stainless steel and new energy, showed different trends, and there were potential investment opportunities [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. For example, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 3016 tons [3]. - **Lead**: Some lead product prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included a decrease in LME lead inventory by 3350 tons and an increase in上期所 lead inventory by 982 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory changes were noted, such as an increase in social alumina inventory by 2.1 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related product prices mostly decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in LME nickel inventory by 1080 tons and a decrease in domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 121 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 zinc inventory by 793 tons and a decrease in LME zinc inventory by 475 tons [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased slightly, and inventory changes included an increase in上期所 tin inventory by 75 tons and an increase in LME tin inventory by 30 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][13][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures is led by Zhan Dapeng, a science master, who serves as the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. The team also includes Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, focusing on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51][52].