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有色商品日报(2025 年 12 月 26 日)-20251226
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices hit a new high, with the macro - environment remaining warm due to Fed liquidity support and global economic growth repair expectations in 2026. Fundamentals show low inventory and demand resilience, but high prices may suppress physical buying, and domestic inventories may increase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Alumina continued to decline, converging with futures, and the spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum prices may face inventory build - up pressure and their upward momentum will be weak, continuing to oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel prices were boosted by news, but the actual implementation is unknown. Stainless steel inventory decreased, and new energy costs and demand weakened. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME was closed, and the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 2.51% to 97,680 yuan/ton. Japan plans a large - scale budget in 2026, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new high. Domestic refined copper inventory increased by 2.52 million tons. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. A long - term bullish view is maintained, but buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The increase in ore shipments and imports put pressure on alumina prices. Aluminum may face inventory build - up pressure, and prices will oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.13%, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.35%. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesian nickel production may decline in 2026, and the government plans to revise the benchmark price formula. Nickel - related prices were mostly stable, and stainless steel inventory decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different changes, and the import loss decreased by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and the import profit increased by 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. Alumina inventory decreased, and aluminum inventory increased. The import loss increased by 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,550 yuan/ton. Nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The import profit decreased significantly [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. Inventory changes were mixed, and the import loss increased by 190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.7%. Inventory increased, and the import loss increased by 5,920 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][12][17]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [51][52].
光大期货能化商品日报-20251226
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 03:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus in 2026, with prices likely to continue oscillating during the holiday period [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a slight strengthening in the low - sulfur segment and some support in the high - sulfur segment. Short - term prices of FU and LU are likely to fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may remain stable and rise [1][3]. - The asphalt price is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand. The downward price space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - In the polyester market, the upstream PX and TA have positive expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited. The ethylene glycol price may face pressure due to high domestic production and potential over - supply [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as the end of the domestic production season, increased overseas supply, and weak downstream demand [5]. - The methanol price is likely to maintain bottom - level oscillations due to factors such as the decline in Iranian supply and the weakening of MTO demand [7]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamental drivers and large inventory transfer pressure, and is expected to show an oscillating performance [7]. - The PVC price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations due to high - level supply oscillations and weak domestic demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures were closed for the Christmas holiday. SC2602 closed at 444.7 yuan/barrel, up 1.7 yuan/barrel or 0.38%. Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. The global oil market is balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective. ING believes there will be an oil surplus in 2026, and the oil price is expected to oscillate during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose 0.61% to 2489 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.33% to 3016 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) week - on - week. The low - sulfur market strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market had some support. The arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market may decline in December, and the supply in Asia may be sufficient from January to February. The high - sulfur market has good downstream demand support. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may rise [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 rose 0.17% to 2995 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The weekly shipment increased by 15.4%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month but increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The cost is supported due to the tense US - Venezuela relationship, but the terminal demand is weak. The price downward space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5152 yuan/ton, up 1.14%; EG2605 closed at 3818 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PX futures contract 603 closed at 7358 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China reduced its load, and a 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted. The ethylene glycol start - up load in mainland China is 72.15% (up 0.18% week - on - week), and the polyester load is around 89.7%. The demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 80 yuan/ton to 15730 yuan/ton, and the NR contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 12695 yuan/ton, while the butadiene rubber BR contract fell 110 yuan/ton to 11285 yuan/ton. Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased by 4.6% year - on - year in the first 11 months, and exports to China increased by 24%. The rubber price followed the rise of the macro - commodity sentiment. The domestic production season ended, overseas supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the Taicang spot price was 2145 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the production is oscillating at a high level. Iranian supply remains low. The Ningbo Fude device is under maintenance, and the MTO device start - up rate in East China has decreased. The inventory may fluctuate, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the East China拉丝 price was 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton. The production profit of various types of polyolefins is negative. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the East China PVC market held firm, the North China market declined slightly, and the South China market had individual price increases. Some plants plan to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The domestic real - estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. The price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. Russia will continue to work within the OPEC+ framework, and the global oil market is balanced [11]. - US Coast Guard is unable to seize an oil tanker related to Venezuela due to a shortage of professional staff and will wait for more personnel to arrive [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, and others [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][22][23][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, and others [32][35][36][38][40][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, and other contracts [44][45][46][47][50][51][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63][64][65]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene, PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [73][74][75][76].
光大期货金融期货日报-20251226
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 03:47
光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 12 月 26 日) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 展 1771 亿元 7 天期逆回购,中标利率 1.4%,上次中标利率 1.4%。另外,央 行预告今日开展 4000 亿元 MLF。据 qeubee 统计,公开市场有 883 亿元逆回 购到期,还有 3000 亿元 MLF 到期,实现净投放 1888 亿元。资金面来看, DR001 下行 0.3BP 至 1.26%,DR007 上行 10BP 至 1.48%。中央经济工作会 议定调明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具,但同时强调把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量,预计 2026 年大方向保持稳中偏松的情况下降息操作偏谨慎。短期 来看,上周央行时隔近三月重启 14 天期逆回购,显现出央行维稳资金面态 度,资金面持续宽松。但经济整体保持韧性,物价回暖,央行降息偏谨慎, 债市震荡格局难改。 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四沪指全天震荡走 ...
农产品日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pigs: Upward [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, corn continued to fluctuate. The trading in the Northeast was lackluster, and there was no profit in shipping goods to the northern port. The price in North China remained stable. The overall inventory of deep - processing enterprises was increasing, and the terminal demand was weak. Technically, the March contract showed signs of stabilizing, and short - term long positions with light positions could be considered [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybean prices rose as investors adjusted their positions before the long holiday. In China, the two - meal market fluctuated downward, with spot prices slightly falling. The spot inventory was high, and the trading volume of forward contracts was large. The market atmosphere was light, and the price range was limited. A double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Oils: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil was basically flat. International crude oil prices rose for the sixth consecutive day. The output of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. In China, soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated, while rapeseed oil rose. The price direction was unclear, and a double - selling strategy was recommended [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures rebounded from a low level. The spot price was weak due to sufficient supply, despite the approaching New Year's Day. There was uncertainty in capacity reduction, so it was recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2603 contract of live pigs closed with a small阳线, and the spot price increased. The daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises increased, and the average weight decreased slightly. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the bottom performance of the March contract, and long - term long positions with light positions could be considered for forward contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Market Information - Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with different decreases in different regions [3]. - On December 23, the CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil imports for January and February shipments increased week - on - week, and the corresponding arrival and tax - paid costs in South China also rose [3]. - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills fluctuated. On December 24, the total trading volume was 18.45 tons, an increase of 10.99 tons from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Summary According to Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][13]
黑色商品日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:11
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The rebar futures market continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and trading volume increased. The current supply - demand situation is strong, but there are concerns about future supply - demand imbalances. It is expected that the rebar futures market will remain in a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore futures main contract rose slightly. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased slightly. Iron - making output decline expanded, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. Some mines have limited production or stopped production, and downstream demand remains weak. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will experience wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose, but the spot price at ports decreased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand from steel mills is weak. It is expected that the coke futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price of silicon manganese futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Production has decreased, demand support is limited, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate in the short term [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of silicon iron futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Supply is gradually decreasing, demand has a slight increase, and inventories have decreased significantly. It is expected that the price will remain firm and oscillate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 17,400 lots in positions. The national building materials production increased by 44,100 tons to 3.5578 million tons, social inventory decreased by 340,100 tons to 4.7489 million tons, factory inventory increased by 19,300 tons to 2.9158 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 74,000 tons to 2.5266 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with 220,000 lots traded and a reduction of 317 lots in positions. The price of PB powder in Qingdao Port rose by 1 yuan to 791 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder fell by 2 yuan to 673 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.58%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 8652 lots in positions. The ex - factory price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 7 yuan to 1097 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rose by 31 yuan to 996 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 552 lots in positions. The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port fell by 20 yuan to 1460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The main contract was reported at 5832 yuan/ton, down 0.03% month - on - month. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises continued to accumulate, reaching 384,500 tons as of the week of December 19 [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The main contract was reported at 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.07% month - on - month. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased significantly, dropping to 65,160 tons as of the week of December 19 [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, as well as profit and spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [17][18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different periods of contracts for various black commodities [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties of contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [44][46][49]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract [50][54]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [56][57].
工业硅&多晶硅日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:10
工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) 一、研究观点 点评 24 日工业硅震荡偏强,主力 2605 收于 8860 元/吨,日内涨幅 1.43%,持仓 增仓 4414 手至 21.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9063 元/吨,较上一交易 日上调 23 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8850 元/吨,现货升水转至 贴水 10 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱,主力 2605 收于 58300 元/吨,日内跌幅 1.3%,持仓减仓 4519 手至 12.7 万手;百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格下调 至 52350 元/吨,最低交割品硅料价格下调至 52350 元/吨,现货对主力贴 水收至 5960 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态,因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定,厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期,工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振,短期延续偏强态势。硅厂大幅提升现货报价,部分咨询 网站坚持稳价发布。受银价持续攀升影响,电池片全尺寸及硅片价格上 涨,下游在协会新的配额要求下面临一定减产压力。交易所再度进行规则 调整,针对全合约实施交易限额,叠加新纳入交割的两家品牌注册了少量 仓单, ...
有色商品日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:09
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱,国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面,美国 12 月 20 日当 | | | | | 周首申失业金人数降至 21.4 万人,预期和前值为 22.4 万人,表明劳动力市场仍未见明 | | | | | 显压力。美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至 2%之后,重新审视美联储的这一 | | | | | 通胀目标,主张央行退居幕后、缩小干预,并与财政部协同配合。国内方面,央行四季 | | | | | 度例会表示将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。库存方面, | | | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 1550 吨至 157025 吨;Comex 库存增加 4095 吨至 435035 吨;SHFE 铜仓 | | | | | 单增加 2679 吨至 52222 吨,BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。需求方面,铜价再度走高,下游企 | | | | | | | 业采购转为谨慎,成交以刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债 ...
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:06
光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 尿素 1、郑商所数据:12 月 24 日尿素期货仓单 10432 张,较上一交易日-100 张,有效预报 439 张。 2、隆众数据:12 月 24 日尿素行业日产 19.19 万吨,较上一工日持平(修正:上一日 19.19 万 吨);较去年同期增加 1.49 万吨;行业开工率 79.37%,较去年同期 78.32%回升 1.05 个百分点。 3、12 月 24 日国内各地区小颗粒尿素现货价格(隆众;元/吨):山东 1730,+10;河南 1710, +20;河北 1730,持平;安徽 1710,+10;江苏 1720,+10;山西 1580,+20。 4、隆众数据:12 月 24 日尿素企业库存 106.89 万吨,周-11.08 万吨,-9.39%。 纯碱 & 玻璃 1、郑商所数据:12 月 24 日纯碱期货仓单数量 4473 张,较上一交易日-50 张,有效预报 949 张;玻璃期货仓单数量 2 ...
光大期货软商品日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:05
一、研究观点 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三,ICE 美棉上涨 0.3%,报收 64.2 美分/磅,郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.28%,报 | 偏强震 | | | 收 14180 元/吨,主力合约持仓环比增加 15586 手至 81.46 万手,棉花 3128B 现货 | | | | 价格指数 14910 元/吨,较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国际市场方面,宏观层面仍有扰 | | | | 动,近期美元指数偏弱震荡,1 月美联储降息概率不大,基本面矛盾有限,震荡为 | | | | 主。国内市场方面,近期郑棉期价重心震荡上行。我们认为,预期偏强是近期行 | | | 棉花 | 情驱动的主要因素之一,近期市场上关于明年新疆地区植棉面积调控的声音较强, | | | | 新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会已经发布相关通告,调减落地是大概率事件。情绪推 | 荡 | | | 动下,昨夜郑棉主连最高触及 14265 元/吨,随后回落。基本面来看,短期郑棉多 | | | | 空因素交织,后续关注点,一是消费表现能否持续, ...
碳酸锂日报-20251225
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 05:05
碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报(2025 年 12 月 25 日) 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 5.89%至 124720 元/吨。现货价格方面,电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/吨至 101500 元/吨,工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/吨至 98850 元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(粗 颗粒)上涨 2300 元/吨至 90780 元/吨。仓单方面,昨日仓单库存增加 450 吨至 17101 吨。 2. 供给端,周度产量环比增加 47 吨至 22045 吨,其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 60 吨至 13804 吨,锂云母 产量环比减少 50 吨至 2826 吨,盐湖提锂环比增加 20 吨至 3095 吨,回收料提锂环比增加 17 吨至 2320 吨。需求端,周度三元材料产量环比减少 468 吨至 17845 吨,库存环比减少 433 吨至 18091 吨; 周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 2083 吨至 92061 吨,库存环比减少 1387 吨至 102271 吨。库存端,周度 库存环比减少 1044 吨至 11 ...