Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices continued to rise on Monday, with near - month contracts leading and far - month contracts following. The futures market rebound and the start of stocking by ports and downstream feed enterprises supported the market. The price of corn in the sales area generally increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price in the northern port increased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the weekend. Technically, maintain a short - term long - position view on corn, and the spot and futures prices are expected to remain strong before New Year's Day [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell on Monday due to cautious trading before the holiday. As of December 25, the US soybean export inspection volume was 750,000 tons, at the lower end of the market's estimated range. Domestically, the prices of two types of meal rose first and then fell, lacking upward momentum. Oil mills announced shutdown plans around New Year's Day, supporting the spot and basis markets. It is expected that the price of soybean meal will fluctuate within a limited range, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - BMD palm oil prices declined on Monday due to high inventories, but the expected decline in production and strong demand limited the drop. The export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 3% month - on - month. Domestic vegetable oils showed a mixed trend. The inventory of the three major vegetable oils decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 2.1081 million tons as of December 26, but increased by 9.28% year - on - year. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will fluctuate, and a double - selling strategy is recommended [2]. - Egg futures slightly corrected on Monday. The spot price of eggs rebounded due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, but the supply was abundant, so the short - term rebound range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to changes in the replenishment and culling intentions of the breeding end [2]. - The main continuous contract of live pigs opened with a gap on Monday and then adjusted under pressure, but the price range continued to move up. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 12.29 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous day. Technically, pay attention to the bottom performance of the March 2026 contract in the short term, and participate in the far - month contracts with a long - term long - position with a light position [3]. Market Information Summary - As of December 27, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 97.9%, up from 97.6% last week, compared with 98.2% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96.7%; the soybean harvesting rate was 0.1%, the same as last year and the five - year average [3]. - For the week ending December 25, 2025, the US shipped 135,417 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), down from 386,010 tons in the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume to China accounted for 18.05% of the total export inspection volume for the week, compared with 44.36% last week [3]. - Private exporters reported the sale of 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - On December 29, the trading volume of soybean oil was 13,000 tons, a 34.02% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean oil showed significant fluctuations in the previous days, with the weekly average being 24,300 tons [4]. Variety Spread Summary Contract Spread - The report presents contract spreads such as the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][7] Contract Basis - The report shows contract bases such as those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [13][14][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: The stock index futures market has been oscillating along the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes, frequent sector rotations, and relatively mild market sentiment. Important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but in the short term, it will mainly oscillate. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the capital market is loose under the care of monetary policy, but the overall economy remains resilient, and prices are warming up. Therefore, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% on Monday after a day of rising and then falling, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, with a trading volume of over 2.15 trillion. The short - term impact of policies on the market is expected to increase. The expected GDP growth rate of 5% in 2026 will not change, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity." Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there is a divergence in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision may affect carry - trade funds. The short - term trend is oscillating [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts fell by 0.91%, 0.28%, 0.18%, and 0.07% respectively at the close. The central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 29, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan. DR001 fell 1.3BP to 1.24%, and DR007 rose 7BP to 1.59%. The short - term trend is relatively strong, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From December 26 to December 29, IH fell 0.44% (from 3,051.4 to 3,038.0), IF fell 0.61% (from 4,638.4 to 4,610.2), IC fell 0.70% (from 7,388.0 to 7,336.6), and IM fell 0.45% (from 7,472.4 to 7,439.0) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.35% (from 3,045.4 to 3,034.6), the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% (from 4,657.2 to 4,639.4), the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% (from 7,458.8 to 7,430.6), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% (from 7,605.5 to 7,594.2) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.07% (from 102.55 to 102.48), TF fell 0.20% (from 106.05 to 105.84), T fell 0.30% (from 108.30 to 107.98), and TL fell 1.01% (from 112.96 to 111.82) [3]. 3.3 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% in the afternoon. More than 3,300 stocks declined, and the trading volume exceeded 2.15 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% [5]. - **Industry Sectors**: The carbon fiber concept strengthened, with stocks like Heshun Technology and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the daily limit. The digital currency concept rose, with stocks like Yuyin Co., Ltd. and Cuiwei Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The large - consumption and lithium - battery sectors declined, with stocks like Anji Food and Baida Group hitting the daily limit down and stocks like Sunwoda and Hongyuan Pharmaceutical falling more than 10% [5]. - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks remained active, with stocks like Shangwei New Materials and Buke Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs. The commercial aerospace concept continued to be strong, with stocks like China Satellite and Shenjian Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends, spot - bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital - interest rate trends of treasury bond futures main contracts [14][16][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and Japanese yen against the RMB, as well as the forward exchange rates and currency - pair exchange rates [24][28][30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 2 9 日 光期研究 p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 783.0 | 778 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米延续震荡，主力 | | 2603 合约期价先涨后跌，日线以阴线收盘，基本收 两天稳定的局面，企业全天到货量尚可，能够满足大部分企业生产需求，企业玉 | 下跌 | | 复前日涨幅。现货市场中，玉米价格以稳定为主，市场暂无新的刺激性因素出现， | | | | | 基层售粮意向一般，粮点及烘干塔目前随行出货为主。华北地区玉米价格延续前 | | | | | 玉米 | | 米收购价格大部分维持稳定，少数企业价格窄幅调整。基层售粮节奏缓慢进行， | | | 基层粮点普遍反应售粮量有限，市场购销相对清淡，依然以潮粮购销为主。销区 | | | | | 市场玉米价格震荡偏弱。港口贸易商出货情况一般，现货成交平淡。下游观望为 | | | | | 主，多执行前期订单。技术上，玉米 | | 3 月合约跌至周线图表均线密集成交处，短 | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆因节日休市，今日恢复交易。之前美豆小幅上涨，因空头获利 | | 期价格呈现企稳要求，可以尝试轻仓短多参与。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices are expected to maintain a firm and volatile trend in the short term, with support from a significant decline in enterprise inventories and market expectations for the results of Indian tenders after January and changes in China's export policies [2] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels. The supply and demand of soda ash have both declined in the short term, and the market has entered a stage of multi - party game [2] - Glass futures prices will continue to oscillate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of glass and internal and external factors are in a stage of game, but the overall market driving force is insufficient [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Urea**: On Thursday, the urea futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46%. The spot market was mostly flat. The supply level of urea has been fluctuating at a low level, and the daily output of the industry on the previous day was 193,200 tons, with a daily increase of 13,000 tons. The demand sentiment has cooled down, and the production - sales rate in the mainstream areas has dropped to the range of 5% - 50%. The subsequent supply - demand changes of urea may be differentiated. It is expected that the short - term futures price will maintain a firm and volatile trend [2] - **Soda ash**: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,184 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.51%. The spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, and the prices of light soda ash in some central China regions were loosening. The quotes in the trader segment continued to decline. The fundamentals show that the starting rate and output of the soda ash industry this week decreased by 1.09 percentage points and 1.32% respectively. The enterprise inventory decreased by 4.06% compared with last Thursday, and the social - link inventory decreased by more than 50,000 tons. The demand follow - up sentiment is average. The short - term supply and demand of soda ash have both declined, and the market has entered a game stage. It is recommended to treat it with a low - level wide - range volatility idea [2] - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,047 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The spot price was still weak. The daily melting volume of the industry has been fluctuating within a narrow range. The demand follow - up sentiment can be maintained, and the production - sales rate in the mainstream areas is mostly around 100%. The glass supply - demand and internal and external factors are in a game stage, and the market driving force is insufficient. The futures price will continue the bottom - range oscillation trend [2] Market Information - **Urea**: On December 25, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 10,750, an increase of 318 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 100. The daily output of the urea industry on December 25 was 193,200 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous working day and 173,000 tons from the same period last year. The starting rate was 79.88%, a rise of 2.05 percentage points from 77.83% in the same period last year. The small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions on December 25 were mostly flat. The urea enterprise inventory on December 24 was 1.0689 million tons, a weekly decrease of 110,800 tons and 9.39% [5][6] - **Soda ash and Glass**: On December 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4,473, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,049; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 217, unchanged from the previous trading day. The soda ash spot prices in various regions on December 25 showed some price adjustments. The soda ash output for the week ending December 25 was 711,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 96,000 tons and 1.32%; the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%, a weekly decrease of 1.09 percentage points. The soda ash manufacturer inventory as of December 25 was 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons and 4.13% from Monday, and a decrease of 60,800 tons and 4.06% from last Thursday. The average price of the float glass market on December 25 was 1,076 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the daily output of the industry was 154,500 tons, a daily increase of 500 tons. The inventory of domestic float glass enterprises as of December 25 was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a weekly increase of 65,000 heavy boxes and 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as last week [8][9] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, inter - contract spreads, spot price trends, and inter - futures spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, to visually show the price and trading trends of these products [11][13][15]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated December 26, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads [1] 1. Futures Contract Price and Spread 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; I01 remained unchanged at 798.0 yuan/ton [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread of I05 - I09 was 21.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; I09 - I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; I01 - I05 was 19.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafen), the basis was 49 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; BRBF was 72 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; Newman fines was 50 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan, etc [5] 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore types including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc [7][8][9] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - PB block - PB fines spread was 73.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines spread was 59.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; etc [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts display different types of variety spreads such as block - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc [14][15][16] 3.3 Additional Variety Spread Charts - Charts show spreads like FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines, (Carajás fines + Super Special fines)/2 - PB fines, Qian'an concentrate - Carajás fines, etc [17][18][19] 4. Exchange Rule Changes - Since December 2, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract is I2205. The DCE has made adjustments to deliverable brands, brand premiums, and quality premiums and discounts for iron ore futures contracts [11] - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton starting from I2202 [11] - New rules adjust the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, others at 0 yuan/ton [11] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and introducing a dynamic adjustment factor X for iron element premium [11] - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton for I2312 and subsequent contracts [11] 5. Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [22]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3127 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅为 0.29%，持仓减少 1.56 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.25 万吨。据我 | | | | 的钢铁网数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.71 万吨至 184.39 万吨，同比减少 31.91 万吨；社库环比回 | | | | 落 18.81 万吨至 294.19 万吨，同比增加 15.98 万吨；厂库环比回升 0.52 万吨至 140.06 万吨，同比增加 18.53 | | | | 万吨；螺纹表需环比回落 5.96 万吨至 202.68 万吨，同比减少 16.9 万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存降幅有 | | | | 所收窄，表需回落，供需数据偏中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 25, 2025, the 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 104,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,400 yuan/ton to 102,250 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 94,280 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 17,101 tons [3]. - Starting from January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium will adjust the spot trading settlement price of all products to refer to Mysteel's battery-grade lithium salt price or the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance on some production lines starting from January 1, 2026, with an estimated reduction in production of 15,000 - 35,000 tons. Wanrun New Energy will conduct planned production reduction and maintenance on some production lines, with an estimated reduction in lithium iron phosphate production of 5,000 - 20,000 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,864 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 40 tons to 2,866 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 20 tons to 3,075 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 36 tons to 2,356 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons. Downstream inventory decreased by 239 tons to 39,892 tons, inventory in other links increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons [3]. - On December 25, the sentiment in the commodity market recovered. Despite the disturbances in the news, the market still showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The pricing mechanism and price transmission have put pressure on the operations of some enterprises. Short - term price competition has intensified, and attention should be paid to whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Minerals**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts are not available. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 6 US dollars/ton to 1,440 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 55 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton and 3,265 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) and amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged at 11,725 yuan/ton and 13,225 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 104,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) increased by 3,400 yuan/ton to 102,250 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 167,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,650 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan/ton to - 10,620 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials increased to varying degrees, and the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium also rose [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary battery, the square lithium iron phosphate cell (small power type), and the cobalt - acid lithium cell [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][10][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][24][25]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May to December 2025 [35][36][37]. - **Production Costs**: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因圣诞假期休市，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.74%，报收 14255 元/ 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 20504 手至 83.51 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 15000 减落地是大概率事件。情绪推动下，郑棉主连最高触及 14265 元/吨。基本面来看， | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 90 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心震荡上行。我 | | | | 们认为，预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一，近期市场上关于明年新疆地 | 偏强震 | | | 区植棉面积调控的声音较强，新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会已经发布相关通告，调 | | | | | 荡 | | | 短期郑棉多空因素交织，后续关注点，一是消费表现能否持续，下游纺织企业春 | | | | 节前是否会有新一轮补库需求；二是明年一季度，宏观层面是否会降准降息，以 | | | | 及通常在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策细则。我们认为，短 | | | | 期郑棉在情绪驱动下有一定支撑，中长期棉价上方空间大于下方空间。 ...