光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力合约收盘价1784元/吨，微幅下跌0.5%。现货市 场多数持稳，山东、河南地区市场价格分别稳定在1880、1860元/吨。基本面来看 | | | | ，昨日尿素日产量20.73万吨，日环比维持稳定，供应水平依旧偏高。需求端有所 | | | | 跟进，但区域间表现分化。昨日主流地区产销率低端地区17%~24%，高端地区70% | | | 尿素 | ~100%。中下游对尿素采购需求有所跟进但追高意愿不足，后期需求仍有放量预期 | 震荡 | | | ，但价格上方空间依旧有限。整体来看，端午假期前最后一个交易日尿素期货盘面 | | | | 或平稳波动，假期之后农业需求、出口需求均存支撑，不排除期、现价格出现小幅 | | | | 反弹可能，但盘面上方空间依旧明显受限。关注现货成交情况、需求力度、盘面持 | | | | 仓及资金流向。 | | | | 周四纯碱期货价格偏弱波动，主力09合约收盘价1203元/吨，跌幅1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly running [1] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly running [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for steel is gradually weakening, and the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand situation in the upcoming consumption off - season. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in weak consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and price cuts, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and production, and are expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures rebounded slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 2978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The spot price rose steadily, and the trading volume increased. The national rebar production decreased, the inventory decline expanded, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the short - term is expected to be in weak consolidation [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rebounded, closing at 707 yuan/ton. The port spot price rose. The global shipment volume decreased slightly, the blast furnace start - up rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills decreased. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 759 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. The spot price in some areas decreased. The supply is loose, the downstream procurement is postponed, and the trading is light. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 1332 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price in the port market decreased. The second round of price cuts was implemented, the demand is weakening, and the inventory of some coking enterprises is overstocked. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5530 yuan/ton, down 1.5%. The market price decreased in some areas. The cost support is weak, the terminal demand is weak, and the production is expected to increase in Inner Mongolia. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5322 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The production in the main producing areas is decreasing, but it has no obvious support for the price. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 7.0, up 7.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also shows different trends, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 142.0, up 6.0 [4] - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of various varieties have different degrees of increase or decrease, like the Shanghai rebar spot price rising 20 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [4] - **Profits and spreads**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have changed, such as the rebar disk profit being 102.5, up 3.2 [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][9][14][17] - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][31][33][35][36][39] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43][45] - **Rebar profits**: There are profit trend charts of rebar including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价高走后回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.9 美元至 | | | | 60.94 美元/桶，跌幅 1.46%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.75 美元 | | | | 至 64.15 美元/桶，跌幅 1.16%。SC2507 以 452.5 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 9.1 元/桶，跌幅 1.97%。美国上诉法庭临时叫停针对总统特朗普关 | | | | 税的法院判决。联邦巡回法庭宣称，其需要时间来研究移交给他 | | | | 们的诸多材料。允许特朗普关税暂时继续有效。白宫贸易顾问纳 | | | | 瓦罗随后对媒体宣称，特朗普政府"完全预料到了"联邦巡回法 | | | | 庭对关税的裁决结果是倾向于特朗普的，法院告诉美国应该选择 | | | 原油 | "不同于贸易法庭关税裁决结果"的道路。事件仍有反复将影响 | 震荡 | | | 市场情绪和心态。EIA 公布库存报告显示，上周美国原油、汽油 | | | | 和馏分油 ...

Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.37%，报收 65.33 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.15%，报收 13330 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比减少 2529 手至 56.25 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14453 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 32 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14572 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 23 元/吨。国际市场方面，整体驱动偏弱，ICE 美棉期价重心震荡走弱， | | | | 预计短期难现有效反弹，后续扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美棉主产区天气情况也需 | | | | 持续关注。国内市场方面，郑棉期价窄幅震荡，当前国内新棉正常生长中，新棉预 | | | | 计丰产，陈棉库存位于近年来同期低位水平，但短期并无短缺担忧，需求端下游纺 | | | | 织企业开机负荷稳中略降，纺织企业产成品库存小幅增加。综合来看，郑棉没有太 | | | | 多利空驱动，但上行驱动更为有限，预 ...

碳酸锂日报 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 0.38%至 60380 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 61500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 59900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 250 元/吨至 63970 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 250 元/吨至 69115 元/吨。仓单 方面，昨日仓单库存减少 300 吨至 33854 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格延续下跌。供应端，周度产量环比减少，周内某锂盐厂技改消息影响产量预计 1500 吨/月，但需要注意的是部分企业此前经过检修拟在 6 月复产，6 月预计产量仍环比有增加。需 求端，正极库存连续消化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天数已经明显下降，电芯端放缓，但终端销售 仍然亮眼，渗透率维持高位。库存端，周度库存环比下降，上游增加，其他环节和下游库存环比下 降。 3. 下游原材料库存仍需要消化，采购活跃度并不强，而上游矿山并未有实质的减产，碳酸锂实际可以 理解为以锂矿的形式存在，基本面仍然偏空，但需要 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 点评 28 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35100 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.23%，持 仓减仓 932 手至 79868 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最低 交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1400 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7340 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.52%，持仓 减仓 1138 手至 22.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8990 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 135 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7950 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 600 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移，西北及西南硅厂均开启 复产阶段，工业硅仍未见底部。5 月多晶硅商议减产额度未达一致，企业 在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期新增预期少但减量有 限，需求和成本坍塌后晶硅承压加剧。近期出现大量仓单补充，淡化此前 挤仓逻辑，晶硅或转向流畅下行节奏。近月供给边际与工业硅出现分歧， 工业硅下跌压力高于多晶硅。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIG ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 9 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 p 2 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 824 | 826 | -2.0 | 77 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格弱势波动，主力09合约收盘价1790元/吨，跌幅1.76%。现货市场 | 震荡 | | | 价格涨跌互现，山东、河南、江苏等地区价格小幅上调10~20元/吨，安徽等地区价 | | | | 格小幅回落10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平持续恢复，昨日行业日产量20.73 | | | | 万吨，日环比提升0.13万吨。需求端跟进仍较为谨慎，昨日仅华东地区产销率突破 | | | | 100%以上，其余地区产销多回落至40%-50%区间。本周尿素企业库存增幅6.89%， | | | | 但短期企业待发订单存支撑，预计价格坚挺持稳。后期尿素需求仍有农业用肥、出 | | | | 口等支撑，但价格仍难以大幅上涨。昨日 度发布 一 国 尿素招标，关注对国 | | | | 内市场情绪扰动。整体来看，尿素市场成交情绪谨慎，后期需求虽有支撑但价格上 | | | | 方限制明显。预计期货盘面延续宽幅震荡运行。关注现货成交持续情况、需求跟 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | 2507 | 合约减仓调整，主力合约期价自上周三开始连续一周收十 | 字星，期价呈现调整表现。现货市场方面，东北玉米价格平稳运行，贸易商低价 | | | | | | | | | 售粮意向暂显一般，但目前部分饲料企业采购小麦的积极性偏高，产区玉米购销 | 活跃度稍显一般。昨日华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏弱运行。山东贸易商继续出 | | | | | | | | | | | 货，加上东北货源补充，深加工玉米到货量今日增加，部分企业价格窄幅下调 | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 6-10 | 元/吨。河北、河南价格维持相对稳定。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口 | | | | | | | | 贸易商报价暂时稳定，下游饲料企业提货以前期订单为主，新签订单多为新季小 | 麦，港口库存逐步消化。技术上，玉米 | 7 | 月合约受制于长期均线压制，期价连 ...