一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 9 月整体耐用品订单 | | | 环比初值增长 0.5%，与市场预期持平，但较 8 月的 2.9%明显放缓。美联储褐皮书显示， | | | 美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱、通胀压力犹存，货币政策面临挑 | | | 战。不过，美联储 12 月降息的 概率继续回升。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 75 吨至 | | 铜 | 156500 吨；Comex 库存增加 1620 吨至 378904 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1140 吨至 39825 | | | 吨，BC 铜维系 5802 吨。需求方面，铜价维系高位，下游接受度有所提升，整体需求呈 | | | 现缓慢回暖态势。内外股市回稳以及铜年度长单报价大幅走高推动铜价表现偏强，值得 | | | 注意的是市场看涨铜正趋于一致性，不过库存"堰塞湖"依然会对年内铜价高度形成制 | | | 约。关注铜价在高位的表现，暂时维系高位震荡观点，但一旦向上有效突破，则可能引 | | | 起新一轮的波动率抬升及看涨情绪。 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Relatively Strong [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: After the liquidity-driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamental logic. New productive forces represented by AI in the technology upstream hardware manufacturing have significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch, with considerable medium-term profitability. However, related themes have risen significantly since June, lacking further event catalysts near the end of the year, and entered a volatile market in November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclical themes are still recovering, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Market trading volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with the actual profitability of AI being questioned, the U.S. government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in U.S. tech stocks last week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board yesterday. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on November 26, with a net withdrawal of funds. The liquidity is reasonably abundant under the central bank's continuous support, but the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is low, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is weak. The bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, there is a brief domestic economic data vacuum period in late November, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 26, 2025, IH rose 0.18% to 2,964.6, IF rose 0.45% to 4,493.0, IC rose 0.14% to 6,909.4, and IM rose 0.06% to 7,176.2 compared with the previous day [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.12% to 2,971.8, the CSI 300 rose 0.61% to 4,517.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 6,965.0, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 7,248.4 compared with the previous day [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 26, 2025, TS fell 0.05% to 102.37, TF fell 0.23% to 105.74, T fell 0.34% to 107.85, and TL fell 0.76% to 114.29 compared with the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market News - At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today, regarding Japan's cabinet resolution on November 25 on the so - called "Taiwan issue," the spokesperson Mao Ning stated that Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan seriously violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, damage the political foundation of bilateral relations, and challenge the post - war international order. China firmly opposes this. Japan's so - called "consistent position" is far from enough [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, their monthly basis trends, etc. [5][6][7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, and cross - period spreads of different maturities, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [12][13][19] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，在玉米现货延续上涨、港口玉米库存下降的双重利多作用影响下，玉米近 月 2601 合约突破创新高，远期跟随上涨。目前，中央储备玉米轮换采购价格继 | | | | 续上涨，现货报价继续走高，期、现报价联动上涨。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏弱运行。山东深加工企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加 | | | | 工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。 | | | | 供应来看，经过前期价格上调，基层农户售粮积极性略有提升，但贸易环节收购 | | | 玉米 | 较为谨慎，目前干粮供应依然较少。需求来看，深加工企业看量调价，库存水平 | 震荡上涨 | | | 维持低位，饲料企业刚需补库为主。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面仍偏 | | | | 强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上量一 | | | | 般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态滚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 4.47% to 95,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 92,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 105 tons to 26,615 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. In October, the import of lithium carbonate increased by 22% to 24,000 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials increased by 118 tons to 19,002 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 79 tons to 19,290 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 118 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 2,154 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been destocked for 14 consecutive weeks to 118,400 tons, and the inventory turnover days have decreased to 26.8 days [3]. - The weekly inventory continued the destocking trend last week, but the marginal change shows that the weekly destocking has slowed down. The weighted contract positions are still large, with risks of continued position reduction and transfer. Although the market sentiment was boosted by news on November 25, the fundamentals may weaken marginally, leading to a short - term downward risk in prices. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long after over - decline or the full release of negative factors [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 95,400 yuan/ton, up 4,920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 95,340 yuan/ton, up 5,140 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,067 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton, except for the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), which decreased by 0.05 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 160,500 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,400 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 10,870 yuan/ton; the price difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 276 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased, with the exception of some materials whose prices remained unchanged. - Cells and batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, while the prices of some products increased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends over time [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [11][15]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences such as the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025 [18]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - The report provides charts of the prices of ternary precursors and cathode materials (including various types of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium) from 2024 to 2025, showing their price trends [23][25]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025, reflecting their price changes [31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The report shows charts of the inventory of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025, reflecting the inventory changes [35]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The report provides a chart of the production costs of lithium carbonate (including cash production profits from different raw materials) from 2024 to 2025, showing the cost - profit situation [39].

Group 1: Index Trends - On November 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, closing at 3870.02 points with a trading volume of 722.789 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.53%, closing at 12777.31 points with a trading volume of 1089.359 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.31% with a trading volume of 404.174 billion yuan, opening at 7195.1, closing at 7249.95, with a daily high of 7311.73 and a low of 7194.77 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.25% with a trading volume of 289.205 billion yuan, opening at 6915.12, closing at 6954.6, with a daily high of 7018.47 and a low of 6912.32 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 0.95% with a trading volume of 411.524 billion yuan, opening at 4475.84, closing at 4490.4, with a daily high of 4510.77 and a low of 4467.35 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.6% with a trading volume of 98.032 billion yuan, opening at 2963.69, closing at 2968.2, with a daily high of 2974.77 and a low of 2952.35 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 93.54 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, communication, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 85.63 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 42.35 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, banking, and communication significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.64 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as banking, non - banking finance, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 64.84, IM01 was - 133.46, IM02 was - 277.15, and IM03 was - 502.43 [13]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 41.17, IC01 was - 92.86, IC02 was - 201.32, and IC03 was - 404.45 [13]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 12.2, IF01 was - 26.04, IF02 was - 41.26, and IF03 was - 83.51 [13]. - IH00 average daily basis was - 5.88, IH01 was - 10.02, IH02 was - 10.28, and IH03 was - 17.55 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented in relevant graphs and tables [23][28]. - For IC, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc., and data at different time points are also provided [24][25]. - For IF, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc., with data at various time points [25]. - For IH, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc., and data at different times are given [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 8960 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.11%，持仓 增仓 1243 手至 26.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易 日上涨 63 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货升水转至 贴水 10 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 54730 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.79%，持仓增仓 650 手至 12.9 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52250 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52250 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 5325 元/ 吨。西南工业硅厂扩大减产，但北方整体供给稳定，积极向期现商出货， 导致价格未修复到西南硅厂顺利出货位置。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震 荡调整。因硅片订单大幅收缩，二三线经历阶段恐慌性降价，但硅料挺价 意愿强烈。当前市场对于多晶硅产能收储并不乐观，叠加终端需求收缩给 予硅料端有价无市压力。预计晶硅底部以现货为锚，重点关注硅料企业挺 价意愿能否持续。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGH ...

软商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.36%，报收 64.23 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.66%，报收 13645 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 486 手至 55.24 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是近期市场关注重点， | | | | 美联储降息预期反复，目前美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概率回升至 80%左右，2025-26 | | | | 年累计降息三次，每次 25BP 概率较大，降息预期回暖下，美棉价格重心略有回升。 | | | 棉花 | 国内市场方面，郑棉期价上行突破 13600 元/吨。我们认为，运费上调导致内地棉 | | | | 花成本抬升、新年度供需并非十分宽松的预期以及市场情绪的回暖是主要驱动因 | | | | 素。展望未来，我们仍需看到当前多空因素的交织，供应端的压力短期难以回避， | | | | 且仍将持续一段时间。但情绪的回暖、成本的支撑以及 12 月重要会议的预期均对 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. Spot prices mostly dropped by 10 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with a daily output of 201,100 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. Demand is not actively following up, with spot sales rates in the range of 5% - 50% in most areas. The market is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to demand, spot transactions, gas - head enterprise starts, exports, and Indian tender dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,173 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.26%. Spot prices were mostly stable, with light ash prices in some areas up by 20 yuan/ton. Supply remained stable, with an operating rate of 82.26%. Demand follow - up slowed down, and the market maintained a low - level wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to start - up and production capacity dynamics, downstream production line changes, macro - policies, and overall market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.1%. Spot prices continued to decline. With more cold repairs in the glass industry, supply decreased, and demand remained positive, with sales rates in most areas above 100%. The short - term performance is firm, but the weak demand still restricts the upward movement. Attention should be paid to supply changes, spot transactions, macro - policies, and overall market trends [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 25, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,302, a decrease of 268 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 895 [5]. - On November 25, the daily output of the urea industry was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous workday and an increase of 11,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [5]. - On November 25, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,652, an increase of 1,134 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,385. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 25, the spot prices of soda ash: In North China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 25, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous workday [8]. - On November 25, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 157,200 tons, a daily decrease of 900 tons [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][13][20][21]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].