软商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.36%，报收 64.23 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.66%，报收 13645 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 486 手至 55.24 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是近期市场关注重点， | | | | 美联储降息预期反复，目前美联储 12 月降息 25BP 概率回升至 80%左右，2025-26 | | | | 年累计降息三次，每次 25BP 概率较大，降息预期回暖下，美棉价格重心略有回升。 | | | 棉花 | 国内市场方面，郑棉期价上行突破 13600 元/吨。我们认为，运费上调导致内地棉 | | | | 花成本抬升、新年度供需并非十分宽松的预期以及市场情绪的回暖是主要驱动因 | | | | 素。展望未来，我们仍需看到当前多空因素的交织，供应端的压力短期难以回避， | | | | 且仍将持续一段时间。但情绪的回暖、成本的支撑以及 12 月重要会议的预期均对 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,630 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. Spot prices mostly dropped by 10 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with a daily output of 201,100 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. Demand is not actively following up, with spot sales rates in the range of 5% - 50% in most areas. The market is expected to continue a low - level wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to demand, spot transactions, gas - head enterprise starts, exports, and Indian tender dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,173 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.26%. Spot prices were mostly stable, with light ash prices in some areas up by 20 yuan/ton. Supply remained stable, with an operating rate of 82.26%. Demand follow - up slowed down, and the market maintained a low - level wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to start - up and production capacity dynamics, downstream production line changes, macro - policies, and overall market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Tuesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.1%. Spot prices continued to decline. With more cold repairs in the glass industry, supply decreased, and demand remained positive, with sales rates in most areas above 100%. The short - term performance is firm, but the weak demand still restricts the upward movement. Attention should be paid to supply changes, spot transactions, macro - policies, and overall market trends [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 25, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,302, a decrease of 268 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 895 [5]. - On November 25, the daily output of the urea industry was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous workday and an increase of 11,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [5]. - On November 25, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions: Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui was 1,630 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3,652, an increase of 1,134 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,385. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 25, the spot prices of soda ash: In North China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, and heavy ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 25, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous workday [8]. - On November 25, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The daily output of the industry was 157,200 tons, a daily decrease of 900 tons [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][13][20][21]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [24]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [24]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面偏强震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅为 0.55%，持仓减少 13.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.14 万吨。 | | | | 据 CME"美联储观察"预测，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 82.9%，较此前大幅提升，维持利率不 | | | | 变的概率为 17.1%。美联储降息预期再次升温，对市场情绪形成较强提振。近期钢厂亏损面不断扩大，上 | | | | 周 247 家钢厂盈利率仅为 37.66%，已降至去年 10 月以来的最低水平。钢厂减产检修增多，成材产量有所 | | | | 回落，对缓解阶段供应压力起到积极影响。不过当前市场已转入消费淡季，市场对于后期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is under pressure and fluctuates repeatedly due to the possible peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI January contract closed down $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%; Brent January contract closed down $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%; SC2601 closed at 443 yuan per barrel, down 4.4 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.98%. OPEC+ may keep production unchanged, and India's crude oil imports from Russia will change. The oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.36% at 2491 yuan per ton; the low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed down 1.31% at 3015 yuan per ton. The supply in December may tighten, and the absolute prices of FU and LU remain weak for now [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan per ton. The spot market exerts pressure on the futures, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to remain loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.51% at 4656 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.28% at 3873 yuan per ton. The production and operation of the polyester industry have certain characteristics, and the prices of relevant products are expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed down 195 yuan per ton to 15125 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported [3][4]. - **Methanol**: The prices of related products are given. The supply at home and abroad changes, and the port inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][4][6]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the demand will weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The price may fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on November 25th and 24th, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc. [8]. 3.3 Market News - Multiple news media reported that Ukraine has reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace agreement, and President Zelensky may visit the US to finalize the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war [13]. - Kpler's preliminary data shows that India's crude oil imports from Russia in November will reach the highest level in five months [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [32][33][38]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][47][48]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and foreign markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62][65][67]. - **Production Profit**: It shows the production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [75][76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile," and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, the market rebounded with all three major indices rising, over 4300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume exceeded 1.82 trillion yuan. After the liquidity-driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamentals. The new productive forces represented by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but lack further catalysts and have entered a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a recovery process but are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term [1] - For treasury bond futures, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced 10000 billion yuan of MLF, with a net withdrawal of 54 billion yuan. The liquidity is reasonably abundant, but the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks upward momentum. With the domestic economic data in a vacuum in late November, the bond market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market rebounded throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. Over 4300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume exceeded 1.82 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. After the liquidity - driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamentals. The new productive forces represented by AI, especially the upstream hardware manufacturing in the technology sector, have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, but lack further catalysts and have entered a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a recovery process but are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence, and US tech stocks pulled back last week. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30 - year main contract down 0.33%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract basically flat. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on November 25th, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 4075 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 9000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 54 billion yuan. In terms of funds, DR001 dropped 0.02BP to 1.32%, and DR007 dropped 2BP to 1.45%. With the central bank's continuous support, liquidity is reasonably abundant, but the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts is low, and the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, with the domestic economic data in a vacuum in late November, the bond market is expected to trade in a narrow range [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH rose from 2944.4 to 2959.2, up 0.50%; IF rose from 4435.2 to 4473.0, up 0.85%; IC rose from 6827.6 to 6900.0, up 1.06%; IM rose from 7095.2 to 7172.0 up 1.08% [3] - For stock indices, the Shanghai 50 rose from 2950.6 to 2968.2, up 0.60%; the CSI 300 rose from 4448.0 to 4490.4, up 0.95%; the CSI 500 rose from 6869.0 to 6954.6, up 1.25%; the CSI 1000 rose from 7156.4 to 7249.9, up 1.31% [3] - For treasury bond futures, TS was basically flat, TF was down 0.01%, T was down 0.11%, and TL was down 0.52% [3] 3.3 Market News - The China - US presidential phone call on November 25th was initiated by the US, with a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere. The two leaders communicated on issues of common concern, which is important for the stable development of China - US relations [5] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][8] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][14][20] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][29] 3.5 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [33] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly follows stock index futures, focusing on macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market fund tracking. His futures qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1%. The position increased by 1,672 lots to 263,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,745 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 2,161 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 52,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 4,040 yuan/ton [2]. - Organic silicon enterprises started to respond to the national call against involution, jointly reducing production to support prices. Funds entered the market in advance to layout related varieties. Southwest industrial silicon plants expanded production cuts, but the overall supply in the north remained stable, actively shipping to spot-futures traders, resulting in the price not recovering to the level where Southwest silicon plants could sell easily. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Due to the significant contraction of silicon wafer orders, second- and third-tier manufacturers experienced panic price cuts, but silicon material manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices. The market is not optimistic about the storage of polysilicon production capacity. Coupled with the contraction of terminal demand, there is pressure of high prices but low trading volume on the silicon material end. It is expected that polysilicon will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the bottom anchored to the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the willingness of silicon material enterprises to support prices can continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the price of some oxygen-free 553 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of some oxygenated 553 silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some regions; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 854 to 41,524, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 14,835 tons to 211,890 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 53,315 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 525 yuan/ton to 56,290 yuan/ton; the price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, and the price of N-type recycled polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,250 yuan/ton; the spot discount widened by 575 yuan/ton to 4,040 yuan/ton; the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 230 to 7,270, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 225,000 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][22][25] 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [28][30][31] Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhai Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non-ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non-ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non-ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory upward trend, with the near - month leading the rise and the far - month following. The 2601 contract has broken through and reached a new high, and the short - term remains strong. Attention should be paid to whether the 7 and 9 - month contracts can break through the pressure range in mid - October [1]. - Soybeans are expected to oscillate. The CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high, waiting for more details of China's procurement and Sino - US dialogue [1]. - For oilseeds, they are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days, reaching the lowest price since July. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has slightly increased [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The futures price rebounds after reaching the previous low, and short - term long positions should be held with caution. Attention should be paid to the impact of the old chickens' slaughter on the market [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The short - term market is in a state of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The industry expects that the inventory of breeding sows in October will fall below 40 million tons, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the 5, 7, and 9 - month contracts to stabilize and rebound [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: From the supply side, farmers' grain - selling rhythm is slow, and the market trading is not active. Central reserve corn procurement prices and spot prices are rising. From the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises' inventory is rising steadily. The 2601 contract has broken through, and the short - term trend is strong [1]. - **Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high. China purchased 158.4 tons last week and 12.3 tons on Monday. The US soybean inspection volume is in line with market expectations. The market is waiting for more details of Sino - US dialogue and the US government's plan for farmers [1]. - **Oilseeds**: BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and weak demand. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has increased slightly to 222.4 million tons due to the increase in palm oil inventory [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated upwards. Spot prices have increased slightly, and short - term prices in the production areas are mostly stable with a few rising. Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and short - term long positions should be held with caution [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The main 2601 contract has oscillated, and the far - month 7 and 9 - month contracts have gapped up. Spot prices are generally stable, and the industry expects a supply and price inflection point in the second half of 2026 [2]. Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has reached 81%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn has reached 93% of the planned area in the central and southern regions [3]. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key areas of China has increased by 0.1 million tons to 222.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3]. - On November 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" have both increased. The average prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market have increased, while the price of white - striped chicken has decreased [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China has risen above 2.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain at around 2.3 million tons this week. The estimated total soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, oilseeds, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][11][14][17][19][24]. Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and has rich experience in leading research teams [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with certain research achievements and media exposure [26].

光期研究 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 763.5 | 756.0 | 7.5 | I05-I09 | 27.0 | 25.5 | 1.5 | | I09 | 736.5 | 730.5 | 6.0 | I09-I01 | -54.0 | -55.0 | 1.0 | | I01 | 790.5 | 785.5 | 5.0 | I01-I05 | 27.0 | 29.5 | -2.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 2 5 日 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for urea is "Wide - range Fluctuation" [1] - The investment rating for soda ash is "Bottom - range Fluctuation" [1] - The investment rating for glass is "Short - term Rebound" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For urea, on Monday, the futures price fluctuated widely with the 01 contract closing at 1638 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline. Supply is at a high level with a daily output of 20.33 tons on the 24th. Demand follow - up has slowed, and new orders for enterprises have decreased. The short - term price is under pressure, but there are potential factors in both supply and demand. The futures should be treated with a wide - range fluctuation view [1]. - For soda ash, on Monday, the futures price trended upwards with the 01 contract closing at 1183 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase. Supply has slightly recovered as some maintenance enterprises resumed production. Demand is okay with downstream restocking. The inventory has decreased, but the demand from the float glass industry is under test. The futures should be treated with a bottom - range fluctuation view [1]. - For glass, on Monday, the futures price strengthened in the afternoon with the 01 contract closing at 1013 yuan/ton, a 2.95% increase. The spot price is still weak. Supply may decline as there were cold - repair phenomena. Demand sentiment has improved, but the long - term situation is still uncertain. The futures have a short - term rebound opportunity [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On November 24, the futures warehouse receipts were 7570, an increase of 387 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 895 [4]. - On November 24, the daily output was 20.33 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous day and 1.87 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.08%, 2.44 percentage points higher than last year [4]. - On November 24, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. showed different trends [4]. Soda Ash and Glass - On November 24, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 2518, an increase of 2518 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 3353. The glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - On November 24, the soda ash spot prices in different regions were reported [6]. - On November 24, the soda ash operating rate was 82.26%, up from 81.13% the previous day [7]. - On November 24, the float glass market average price was 1094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.81 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume and open interest, spread, and futures price difference charts of urea, soda ash, and glass, with data sources from iFind and the research institute of Everbright Futures [9][11][20]

碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 碳酸锂日报 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约跌 2.88%至 90480 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 150 元/吨至 92150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 150 元/吨至 89750 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）维持 81280 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 338 吨至 26510 吨。 2. 供应端， 周度产量环比增加 585 吨至 22130 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 440 吨至 13344 吨，锂云 母产量环比增加 30 吨至 2971 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 80 吨至 3635 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 35 吨 至 2180 吨；10 月碳酸锂进口环比增加 22%吨至 2.4 万吨，其中自阿根廷进口环比增加 5%至 0.7 万 吨，自智利进口环比增加 37%至 1.5 万吨。需求端，三元材料周度产量环比增加 118 吨至 19002 吨， 周度库存环比增加 79 吨至 19290 吨；磷酸铁锂周度产量环比增加 ...