光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格弱势波动，主力09合约收盘价1790元/吨，跌幅1.76%。现货市场 | 震荡 | | | 价格涨跌互现，山东、河南、江苏等地区价格小幅上调10~20元/吨，安徽等地区价 | | | | 格小幅回落10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平持续恢复，昨日行业日产量20.73 | | | | 万吨，日环比提升0.13万吨。需求端跟进仍较为谨慎，昨日仅华东地区产销率突破 | | | | 100%以上，其余地区产销多回落至40%-50%区间。本周尿素企业库存增幅6.89%， | | | | 但短期企业待发订单存支撑，预计价格坚挺持稳。后期尿素需求仍有农业用肥、出 | | | | 口等支撑，但价格仍难以大幅上涨。昨日 度发布 一 国 尿素招标，关注对国 | | | | 内市场情绪扰动。整体来看，尿素市场成交情绪谨慎，后期需求虽有支撑但价格上 | | | | 方限制明显。预计期货盘面延续宽幅震荡运行。关注现货成交持续情况、需求跟 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | 2507 | 合约减仓调整，主力合约期价自上周三开始连续一周收十 | 字星，期价呈现调整表现。现货市场方面，东北玉米价格平稳运行，贸易商低价 | | | | | | | | | 售粮意向暂显一般，但目前部分饲料企业采购小麦的积极性偏高，产区玉米购销 | 活跃度稍显一般。昨日华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏弱运行。山东贸易商继续出 | | | | | | | | | | | 货，加上东北货源补充，深加工玉米到货量今日增加，部分企业价格窄幅下调 | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 6-10 | 元/吨。河北、河南价格维持相对稳定。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口 | | | | | | | | 贸易商报价暂时稳定，下游饲料企业提货以前期订单为主，新签订单多为新季小 | 麦，港口库存逐步消化。技术上，玉米 | 7 | 月合约受制于长期均线压制，期价连 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面继续下跌，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2964 元/吨，较上一交 | 弱势整理 | | | 易收盘价格下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅为 0.54%，持仓增加 4.14 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区 | | | | 迁安普方坯价格持平于 2900 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3060 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.37 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 2.77 万吨至 425.76 万吨，社库回落 22 万吨至 565.31 万 | | | | 吨，厂库增加 7.07 万吨至 329.18 万吨；全国建材表需回落 9.58 万吨至 440.69 万吨。建材产量回落，库存 | | | | 降幅收窄，表需继续下降，建材市场逐步显现出淡季特征。焦炭第二轮提降正式落地，焦煤价格持续下跌， | | | | 钢厂成本支撑依然不强。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.31%至 9566 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.33%至 77790 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月耐用品订单环比初值下跌 | | | | 6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由 9.20%修正为 7.50%，表明在关税政策不确定性的影响 | | | | 下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，前 4 月规模以上 | | | | 工业企业利润增长 1.4%，较前 3 月加快 0.6 个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。库存方 面，LME 库存下降 7850 吨至 154300 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 688 吨至 163043 吨； | | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单下降 100 吨至 34861 吨；BC 铜仓单维持 880 吨。需求方面，高铜价高升 | | | | 水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗普态度反复摇摆，但 | | | | 美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral, with an expectation of a volatile trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: On May 28, most A - share market indices pulled back. In April, economic data showed a decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social credit demand was weak. Recently, multiple departments announced policies to support the capital market, and internal policy efforts are the main theme for the stock index in 2025. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing stock market valuations [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with slight declines across various tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short - term, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate according to the capital situation and economic fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 28, the Wind All - A index dropped 0.2% with a trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The consumer sector was relatively strong, while the basic chemicals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were weak. In April, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The cumulative new RMB loans in April were 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and the year - on - year growth of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for future trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and regulatory authorities introduced measures to support the capital market. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the bottom - building stage [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: On May 28, the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined, and the 10 - year main contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 585 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets showed different trends. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear trend [2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of - 0.12%, - 0.11%, - 0.18%, and - 0.27% respectively [3] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined on May 28 compared with May 27, with declines of - 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 0.26%, and - 0.40% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the TS, TF, and TL contracts declined, and the T contract was basically stable [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased [3] 3.3 Market News - From January to April, the total operating revenue of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit was 1349.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond spot bonds [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][24]

Group 1: Index Trends - On May 28th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.02%, closing at 3339.93 points with a trading volume of 389.341 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.26%, closing at 10003.27 points with a trading volume of 620.609 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.4%, with a trading volume of 191.733 billion yuan, an opening price of 6006.89, a closing price of 5984.46, a daily high of 6023.82, and a daily low of 5972.18 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.26%, with a trading volume of 119.96 billion yuan, an opening price of 5651.88, a closing price of 5637.24, a daily high of 5660.47, and a daily low of 5628.42 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.08%, with a trading volume of 162.496 billion yuan, an opening price of 3843.07, a closing price of 3836.24, a daily high of 3849.74, and a daily low of 3833.96 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.08%, with a trading volume of 44.83 billion yuan, an opening price of 2686.73, a closing price of 2683.06, a daily high of 2691.48, and a daily low of 2681.86 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 24.0 points compared to the previous closing price, with sectors such as Computer, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology significantly dragging down the index [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 14.91 points compared to the previous closing price, with the Food & Beverage sector significantly boosting the index, while sectors such as National Defense & Military Industry, Automobile, and Computer significantly dragging it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index decreased by 3.16 points compared to the previous closing price, with sectors such as Transportation, Household Appliances, and Communication significantly boosting the index, while sectors such as Electronics, Power Equipment, and Automobile significantly dragging it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 2.22 points compared to the previous closing price, with sectors such as Petroleum & Petrochemical, Public Utilities, and Coal significantly boosting the index, while sectors such as Automobile, Electronics, and Banking significantly dragging it down [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was -96.74, IM01 was -188.82, IM02 was -344.92, and IM03 was -518.57 [14]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was -78.15, IC01 was -152.25, IC02 was -265.01, and IC03 was -391.8 [14]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was -32.25, IF01 was -71.05, IF02 was -102.95, and IF03 was -142.39 [14]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was -18.32, IH01 was -49.61, IH02 was -55.82, and IH03 was -58.14 [14]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -53.1193, IM00 - 02 was -158.791, etc. [25]. - For IC contracts, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -26.1467, IC00 - 02 was -90.0318, etc., along with their annualized costs [26]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -5.99267, IF00 - 02 was -13.4098, etc., and their annualized costs are provided [26]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was -1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc., with corresponding annualized costs [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，下跌 0.19%至 9596 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.14%至 78100 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月耐用品订单环比初值下跌 | | | | 6.3%，预期值为-7.8%，前值由 9.20%修正为 7.50%，表明在关税政策不确定性的影响 | | | | 下，企业投资意愿正在减弱。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，前 4 月规模以上 | | | | 面，LME 库存下降 2575 吨至 162150 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 3023 吨至 162354 吨； | | | | 工业企业利润增长 1.4%，较前 3 月加快 0.6 个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。库存方 | | | 铜 | SHFE 铜仓单增加 2128 吨至 34961 吨；BC 铜仓当下降 201 吨至 880 吨。需求方面， | | | | 高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 0.86%至 60920 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 62000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 60400 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 64220 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 200 元/吨至 69365 元/吨。仓单 方面，昨日仓单库存减少 825 吨至 34154 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格延续下跌，据市场消息，FM 锂辉石报价 645 美元/吨左右。供应端，周度产量 环比减少，周内某锂盐厂技改消息影响产量预计 1500 吨/月，但需要注意的是部分企业此前经过检 修拟在 6 月复产。需求端，正极库存连续消化，特别是磷酸铁锂库存周转天数已经明显下降，电芯 端放缓，但终端销售仍然亮眼，渗透率维持高位。库存端，周度库存环比下降，上游增加，其他环 节和下游库存环比下降。 3. 下游原材料库存仍需要消化，采购活跃度并不强，而上游矿山并未有实质的减产，碳酸锂实际可以 理解为以锂矿的形式存在，基本面仍然偏 ...