农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约减仓调整，期价以小阳线收盘。资金向 2603 合约转移。 当日，玉米 1 月合约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港 续上涨，目前农户仍较为惜售。 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工 | 震荡上涨 | | 口玉米报价上涨。东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情 | | | | | 况来看，辽宁、吉林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持 | | | | | 企业早间门前剩余车辆再次突破 | 玉米 | 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 | | | 10-20 | | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继 | | | 续上涨。期货盘面仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户 | | | | | 售粮心态一般，上量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料 | | | | | 企业维持观望心态滚动建库。技术上 ...

Research Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish [1] Core Views - The stock market's liquidity-driven rally since June has ended, and the market is refocusing on fundamentals. The new productive forces sector led by AI has optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector, with significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch and promising medium-term profitability. However, the market entered a volatile phase in November. Traditional economic sectors such as consumption and cyclical industries are still in the process of a volatile recovery, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. The market volume and volatility are decreasing, and risk appetite is declining. It is expected that the index will be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with doubts about the actual profitability of AI, the US government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in US tech stocks last week [1]. - On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. In terms of the money market, DR001 dropped 0.1 BP to 1.31%, and DR007 dropped 3 BP to 1.45%. With the central bank's continuous support, the liquidity is reasonably abundant. However, the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not high, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is low, so the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, as November enters a brief domestic economic data vacuum period, the bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range [1][2]. Summary by Section 1. Research Views - **Stock Index**: On Thursday, the market rose and then fell throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume exceeded 1.72 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44%. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On November 27, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow range in the short term [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH decreased by 0.07%, IF decreased by 0.01%, IC decreased by 0.19%, and IM increased by 0.04% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.02%, the CSI 300 fell 0.05%, the CSI 500 fell 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.11% [3]. 3. Market News - French President Macron will visit China in early December to discuss major issues in the comprehensive strategic partnership between France and China and several major international issues and cooperation areas [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the price trends, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates of treasury bond futures [13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [21][23][25][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]

Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On November 27th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, with a trading volume of 698.519 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to close at 12875.19 points, with a trading volume of 1011.275 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.12% with a trading volume of 365.626 billion yuan. The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.2% with a trading volume of 253.013 billion yuan. The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.02% with a trading volume of 105.106 billion yuan. The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 417.79 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - For the CSI 1000, sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and communication pulled the index up, while pharmaceutical biology, computer, and media sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the CSI 500, basic chemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals sectors pulled the index up, while media, electronics, and computer sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the CSI 300, banks, basic chemicals, and public utilities sectors pulled the index up, while computer, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment sectors pulled it down [3]. - For the SSE 50, banks, basic chemicals, and coal sectors pulled the index up, while communication, machinery, and pharmaceutical biology sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - The average daily basis for IM00 was -72.04, IM01 was -143.98, IM02 was -294.56, and IM03 was -530.53. For IC00, it was -47.73; IC01, -103.75; IC02, -213.96; IC03, -420.19. For IF00, it was -16.24; IF01, -31.18; IF02, -48.51; IF03, -95.63. For IH00, it was -4.95; IH01, -9.43; IH02, -10.66; IH03, -19.69 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time intervals (15 - minute means) are provided, including specific point differences and cost calculations [23][25][26].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓下行，资金向 2603 合约转移。当日，玉米 1 月合 | | | | 约冲高回落，3、5 月合约继续上行。现货市场中，产区、港口玉米报价上涨。 | | | | 东北产区玉米价格仍延续偏强运行的态势，从各地价格上涨情况来看，辽宁、吉 | | | | 林价格上涨幅度最为剧烈，黑龙江跟涨情况稍显一般，价格持续上涨，目前农户 | | | | 仍较为惜售。 昨日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，山东深加工企业早间门前 | | | | 剩余车辆再次突破 1000 台以上，部分深加工企业价格窄幅下调 10-20 元/吨。河 | 震荡上涨 | | | 北、河南深加工玉米价格基本维持稳定。销区市场玉米价格继续上涨。期货盘面 | | | | 仍偏强，产区贸易商为执行前期合同被迫收粮交付，当前农户售粮心态一般，上 | | | | 量一般。销区港口贸易商成本提高后继续上调报价。下游饲料企业维持观望心态 | | | | 滚动建库。技术上，周三玉米 2601 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约 2605 合约涨 1.45%至 96340 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价 上涨 750 元/吨至 92800 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 750 元/吨至 90400 元/吨，电池级氢氧化 锂（粗颗粒）上涨 150 元/吨至 81330 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 435 吨至 27050 吨。 2. 供应端， 周度产量环比增加 585 吨至 22130 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 440 吨至 13344 吨，锂云 母产量环比增加 30 吨至 2971 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 80 吨至 3635 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 35 吨 至 2180 吨；10 月碳酸锂进口环比增加 22%吨至 2.4 万吨，其中自阿根廷进口环比增加 5%至 0.7 万 吨，自智利进口环比增加 37%至 1.5 万吨。需求端，三元材料周度产量环比增加 118 吨至 19002 吨， 周度库存环比增加 79 吨至 19290 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Glass: Continuous rebound [1] Core Views - **Urea**: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market in some areas declined slightly, with supply at a high level and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The international market has uncertain factors. The futures market is expected to continue a strong - oscillation trend [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price was firm and oscillated. The spot market quotation was stable, with supply stable and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The futures price will continue a low - level wide - amplitude fluctuation trend [1]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the glass futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market stopped falling, with supply stable and demand improving. Inventories decreased, and the futures market may continue to rebound in the short term, but a market reversal requires more positive factors [1]. Market Information Urea - On November 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,390, an increase of 88 from the previous trading day, with 820 valid forecasts [4]. - On November 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 203,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 11,700 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 26, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,620 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - As of the week of November 26, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons (- 5.10%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 26, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 4,710, an increase of 1,058 from the previous trading day, with 1,401 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 26, the soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On November 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 157,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and open interest of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][16][17]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-27 一、指数走势 11 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.15%，收于 3864.18 点，成交额 7010.2 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.02%，收于 12907.83 点，成交额 10823.27 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.02%，成交额 3769.64 亿元，其中开盘价 7236.66，收盘价 7248.45，当日最高价 7307.2，最低价 7225.09； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.15%，成交额 2748.58 亿元，其中开盘价 6946.08，收盘价 6965.05，当日最高价 7024.88，最低价 6936.88； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%，成交额 4273.61 亿元，其中开盘价 4490.2，收盘价 4517.63，当日最高价 4538.14，最低价 4485.7； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.12%，成交额 972.58 亿元，其中开盘价 2969.78，收盘价 2971.8，当日最高价 2979.98，最低价 2968.02。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9020 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.28%，持仓 减仓 3390 手至 26.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9727 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8950 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 55 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 55895 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.93%，持仓 增仓 13965 手至 14.3 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52250 元/吨，最低 交割品硅料价格在 52250 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 7240 元/吨。西南工 业硅厂扩大减产，但北方整体供给稳定，积极向期现商出货，导致价格未 修复到西南硅厂顺利出货位置。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。因 硅片订单大幅收缩，二三线经历阶段恐慌性降价，但硅料挺价意愿强烈。 当前市场对于多晶硅产能收储并不乐观，叠加终端需求收缩给予硅料端有 价无市压力。当前资金集中在近月挤仓和 1-5 正套上，短期期现持续分歧 且波动较高，建议谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EV ...