光期研究 见微知著 股指期货策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 股指期货：关税战告一段落，财报季即将来袭 | | 4月，触底反弹，Wind全A月度收跌3.15%，中证1000下跌4.61%，中证500下跌3.94%，沪深300下跌2.58%，上证50下跌 | | --- | --- | | | 0.63%。周度来看，小盘指数反弹力度更强，中证1000收涨1.85%，上证50下跌0.33%。美国关税战自4月2日起，目前暂告一段 | | | 落，但美国关税战本质是其金融账户融资能力不足，导致其企图通过缩小经常账户逆差进行再平衡，该问题短期内难以解决， | | | 关税政策未来仍存在反复地可能。 | | | 4月底，A股将完整披露2024年年报和2025年一季报，其中成长性指标值得关注。2025年第一季度GDP同比5.4%，取得开 | | | 门红，再起基础上市场更加关注名义增速数据，财报中营收同比增速等数据可以进行侧面验证， 2024年前三季度，沪深两市 | | | A股剔除金融板块后 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 p 3 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 总 结 1、供给：周度印尼红土镍矿1.2%下跌0.4美元/湿吨至24美元/湿吨，1.6%上涨1.5美元/吨至52.5美元/湿吨；印尼镍矿升贴水维持25美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿低品位矿升水 维持。一级镍，期货价格窄幅震荡，现货升水小幅下降。镍铁市场镍铁成交价格重心下移。中间品受到印尼生产受阻影响，短期供应相对偏紧，硫酸镍原料价格相对 较强，理论利润转向亏损。 2、需求：不锈钢方面，成品价格不温不火，原料价格涨跌分化；供应端，据钢联统计，本月有两家300系钢厂已进行不同程度的减产，预计影响4月产量共4万吨左右； 库存端，仓单库存环比减少11979吨至16.8万吨；全国主流市场不锈钢89仓库口径社会总库存周环比减少8481吨至107.8万吨，其中300系环比减少21476吨至701470吨； 消费端，据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2024年 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.92%至 9455 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.14%至 77770 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，美国 3 月耐用品订单环比初值 9.2%，为 2024 年 | | | | | 7 月以来最大增幅，大幅超过预期值 2%和前值 0.9%，但扣除运输类耐用品订单环比初 | | | | | 值为 0%，不及预期的 0.3%，大幅低于前月的 0.7%，总体来看飞机制造订单掩盖了其他 | | | | | 制造业的不足，企业投资更加谨慎。美国 3 月成屋销售总数环比跌 5.9%，大幅预期为 | | | | | 下跌 2.6%和前值上涨 4.2%，3 月成屋销售同比下降 3.1%。不过美联储多位官员发声偏 | | | | | 鸽派，经济和就业市场快速下滑下，美联储会考虑降息，市场对 6 月降息的预期开始升 | | | | 铜 | 温。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1825 吨至 吨；C ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-23 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68300 | 68980 | -680 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68380 | 69060 | -680 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 795 | 795 | 0 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1610 | 1610 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6700 | 6700 | 0 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 7875 | 7875 | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices fluctuated widely on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1758 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.79%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial price cuts. Urea supply increased, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% this week, exceeding 1 million tons. Demand was limited, with agricultural demand delayed and industrial demand mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and downstream procurement efforts [1]. - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated strongly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1380 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.07%. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial rebounds in traders' quotes. The supply reduction of soda ash was difficult to reverse the loose pattern, and the supply volatility remained high. Demand was average, and downstream enterprises had a low willingness to stock up on a large scale. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to device changes, downstream replenishment efforts, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated weakly on Thursday, with the main 09 contract closing at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.96%. The spot market price rebounded slightly. The supply had little impact on the market, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but the spot trading atmosphere improved recently. The market is expected to have a short - term shock trend, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, policies, and spot transactions [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Urea**: The futures price was 1758 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The spot price in Shandong and Henan was 1830 yuan/ton. Supply increased to 19.63 tons per day, and enterprise inventories rose by 17.52% to over 1 million tons. Demand was limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was 1380 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. The spot price was mostly stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 0.06 percentage points, and the weekly output decreased by 0.06%. Supply pressure was slightly relieved, and demand was average. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Glass**: The futures price was 1135 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The spot price increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1281 yuan/ton. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.78 tons, and enterprises' inventories increased slightly. Demand was limited, but spot transactions improved. The market is expected to be volatile [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On April 24, the futures warehouse receipt was 4138, down 25 from the previous day. The daily output was 19.63 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous day. The operating rate was 85.13%, up 1.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory as of April 23 was 106.50 tons, up 17.52% from last week [4][5]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: On April 24, the soda ash futures warehouse receipt was 4030, down 260 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2546; the glass futures warehouse receipt was 2541, unchanged. The soda ash industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.44%, down 0.06 percentage points. The output was 75.51 tons, down 0.06%. The inventory was 169.10 tons, down 0.11%. The glass market average price was 1281 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The daily output was 15.78 tons, unchanged. The inventory as of April 24 was 6547.33 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash contracts, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][18][20][22]. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different commodity research and have rich experience and many honors [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry, but gives individual ratings for each black commodity: steel - narrow - range adjustment; iron ore - repeated oscillations; coking coal - consolidation; coke - consolidation; manganese silicon - oscillation; ferrosilicon - oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on April 25, 2025, including price changes, supply - demand situations, and future trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures fell slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. This week, rebar production decreased slightly, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped significantly. Considering short - term tariff war relief and domestic policy expectations, as well as raw material and finished - product support, it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 dropped 0.96% to 720.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices also fell. Supply showed a slight increase in global shipments, while demand saw an increase in molten iron production and a rise in port inventory. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures dropped 0.68% to 956 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. With policy support expectations, it is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures dropped 0.28% to 1590.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports declined. Supply production is stable, and demand is supported by high - level blast furnace operation. It is expected to consolidate in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Spot prices declined, and market sentiment needs to be boosted. With a decrease in supply in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract at 5658 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market sentiment is weak. With continued production cuts in the main production areas, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, as well as profit, spread data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, etc [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - period contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts for various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][43] - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant professional qualifications [52][53]

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 24 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 39375 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.26%，持仓减仓 1991 手至 59000 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 2625 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 8875 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.11%，持仓 增仓 132 手至 18.3 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10178 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最 低交割品#553 价格降至 8850 元/吨，现货升水 65 元/吨转至贴水 5 元/吨。工业硅 减产计划进一步扩大，伊犁将于 5 月初停产，西南复产延后。因亏损严重部分产能 已转向铁合金等版块。此外多晶硅大跌对进一步拖累工业硅，目前硅厂停产速度远 低于价格下探节奏，后续减产难以扭转当前局面，或延续探底表现。多晶硅终端需 求仍有继续失速迹象。在结构性错配的压力下，弱预期将进一步加深。仍以偏空思 路对待，跟踪库存拐点与政策动向，警惕交割月前异动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 25 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉上涨 0.17%，报收 69.15 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.58%，报收 12990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1639 手 56.93 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日持平，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14188 元/吨，较前一日增加 | | | | 37 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍有扰动，特朗普释放中美关税政策缓和 | | | | 信号，美元指数自低位回升，昨日重心略有下移，ICE 美棉期价震荡运行，预计短 | | | | 期宏观扰动仍存。国内市场方面，郑棉期价整体仍维持震荡走势，市场情绪影响仍 | | | | 然较大。展望未来，我们认为本年度最艰难时刻大概率已经度过，中美关税较此前 | | | | 再度增加概率偏低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应端扰动不大，下游 | | | | 需求虽相对有限，但能看到棉花商业库存在逐渐下 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 2 5 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 768.0 | 776.0 | -8.0 | I05-I09 | 47.5 | 48.5 | -1.0 | | I09 | 720.5 | 727.5 | -7.0 | I09-I01 | 27.5 | 29.0 | -1.5 | | I01 | 693.0 | 698.5 | -5.5 | I01-I05 | -75.0 | -77.5 | 2.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-04-25 一、指数走势 04 月 24 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.03%，收于 3297.29 点，成交额 4347.06 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.58%，收于 9878.32 点，成交额 6743.13 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.07%，成交额 2378.67 亿元，其中开盘价 5979.41，收盘价 5920.48，当日最高价 5984.37，最低价 5897.65； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.52%，成交额 1578.99 亿元，其中开盘价 5633.02，收盘价 5605.88，当日最高价 5651.53，最低价 5583.43； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.07%，成交额 2054.83 亿元，其中开盘价 3787.46，收盘价 3784.36，当日最高价 3807.26，最低价 3775.21； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.25%，成交额 542.74 亿元，其中开盘价 2648.77，收盘价 2655.36，当日最高价 2665.73，最低价 2648.76。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数 ...