Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The 11 - month contract of corn fell to the 2150 integer support level and rebounded technically on Thursday, but the medium - term weak expectation remains unchanged. New - season corn supply is abundant, and traders' low willingness to store grains intensifies supply pressure. Downstream提货节奏 is slow, and pre - festival restocking is not obvious [1]. - Soybean, Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to Argentina's re - imposition of tariffs. Domestic soybean and soybean meal prices were weakly volatile, with a slight rebound after hitting a six - week low. With the approaching National Day holiday, pre - festival stocking and increased logistics costs make spot prices resistant to decline. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oil: BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday, driven by the strength of soybean oil and export demand. Domestic rapeseed oil increased in position and rose, with soybean oil and palm oil following. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded on Thursday. Short - term supply pressures egg prices, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the futures. It is recommended to participate with a moderately light position, and be vigilant against the adverse impact of spot price corrections on futures after the peak - season stocking ends [1]. - Pigs: On Thursday, live - hog futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply of live - hogs is abundant, terminal demand is limited, and the short - term policy boost is limited. The futures and spot prices of live - hogs continue to be weak, but the main contract stopped falling and fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on live - hog futures prices [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Trade Policy: The US should take positive actions to cancel relevant unreasonable tariffs on soybean trade to expand bilateral trade. The EU and Indonesia have completed the negotiation of a free - trade agreement, which offers zero - tariff treatment for Indonesian palm oil exports [2][3]. - Export Data: Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 11.3% - 12.9% compared to the previous month [1][3]. - Policy Meeting: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires efforts to be made in winter wheat production, consolidating the expansion of winter rapeseed cultivation, and ensuring the supply of "vegetable basket" products [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybean 1 - 5, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][6]. - Contract Basis: The report shows contract bases including corn, corn starch, soybean, etc., without specific analysis [12][13][16]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and media exposure. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262 [26]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many awards. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637 [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and live - hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with team honors and media interviews. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544 [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On September 25, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 9,055 yuan/ton with an intraday increase of 0.72%, and the position decreased by 10,966 lots to 259,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,604 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 155 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,365 yuan/ton with an intraday increase of 0.89%, and the position decreased by 5,713 lots to 105,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,135 yuan/ton [2]. - Before the double festivals, the price of silicon - coal climbed, the resumption of industrial silicon production slowed down, and downstream enterprises stocked up and increased their operating rates, leading to a reduction in inventory. In the short term, there is a co - existence of cost support and high - inventory suppression, providing a relatively strong support [2]. - A draft of the energy - consumption policy for polysilicon was released, with a slight increase in the first - and second - level standards. Since Trump plans to include silicon products in the tax list, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon during the period when both domestic and foreign policies are not yet implemented. The policy and the actual supply - demand situation deviate, and the divergence between the futures and spot markets may continue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic policies and the US tax - rate agreement [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,020 yuan/ton on September 24 to 9,055 yuan/ton on September 25. The prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in most regions increased, while the prices of 421 silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 120 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 49,925, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 620 tons to 249,370 tons, the Tianjin Port inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 79,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 3,800 tons to 261,400 tons. The total social inventory increased by 1,800 tons to 444,400 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,380 yuan/ton on September 24 to 51,365 yuan/ton on September 25. The prices of various types of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 1,120 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,850, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 23.70 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 24.21 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 24.2 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market and 107 - glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined - coal prices [6][8][11]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic - silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial - silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [24][26]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum - alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [29][33][37]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity - research experience, and the team has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium of oil prices, but they have not broken through the oscillation range. Before the long - holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid extreme fluctuations in the external market [1]. - The supply and demand of different products have different impacts on prices. For example, the supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, which will put pressure on the market; the supply of asphalt is high, and the upward space of prices may be affected; the supply of polyolefins is stable, and demand is improving marginally; the supply of PVC is high, and domestic demand recovers slowly [3][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 11 - month contract closed down $0.01 to $64.98/barrel, Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.34 to $68.8/barrel, and SC2511 closed up 2.2 yuan to 491.1 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical events such as Ukraine's attack on Russian ports and Trump's remarks have increased market volatility. BP predicts that global oil demand will continue to grow before 2030. The oil price is expected to oscillate, and investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 rose 1.3%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 rose 1.56%. In August 2025, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a new high this year. The supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will increase in the future, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited upside [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 1.3%. The traditional consumption season brings stocking demand, but the high supply in October may limit price increases. The price is expected to remain stable, and the actual demand needs attention [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.12%, EG2601 rose 0.28%, and PX futures rose 1.09%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The polyester load decreased slightly. The prices of the polyester chain followed the cost increase, but there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for TA and EG, with pressure on the upside [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 fell 50 yuan, NR fell 35 yuan, and BR rose 25 yuan. The US - EU trade agreement and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the impact of typhoons on production areas, affect the market. The demand for downstream tires is stable, and the export support weakens. The rubber price is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to position risks during the holiday [5][6]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2252 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas supply is affected by device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The methanol price is expected to enter a stage - bottom, and the basis will strengthen. A strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins can be considered [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins shows different trends. The supply will remain high, and the demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The overall situation is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in different regions shows different trends. The domestic real - estate construction has a slow recovery, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies. The supply is high, and the total inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 25 - 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Iraq's Kurdish region will resume exporting oil to Turkey from this Saturday, with an expected export volume of about 230,000 barrels per day [13]. - Ukraine attacked Russian ports on the Black Sea coast, paralyzing oil shipping facilities near the Novorossiysk port, with a daily export volume of about 2 million barrels of crude oil [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and analyzes the basis changes over time [31][32][35]. - **4.3 Inter - contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc., analyzing the spread changes between different contracts [45][46][47]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [60][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [70][72][74]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional responsibilities [76][77][78].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is bullish, and for treasury bonds, it is range - bound [1] Group 2: Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP but was cautious, with internal differences on the path of rate cuts this year. The equity market showed mixed performance, and the market expects three rate cuts this year. In China, the demand - side indicators in August economic data declined slightly, indicating that the economy is still on the way to bottoming out. The current market rally is mainly driven by long - term policy expectations, with limited impact from current fundamentals. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through more fiscal support. As the important meeting in October approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and investors can reduce long positions [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The central bank conducted large - scale open - market operations, resulting in a net injection of 2965 billion yuan. The short - term money market rates rose. The current economic fundamentals are mixed, and there is no obvious turning point signal in the bond market, so the range - bound trend continues [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 2,939.8 to 2,953.6, an increase of 13.8 or 0.47% [3] - IF rose from 4,530.0 to 4,562.2, an increase of 32.2 or 0.71% [3] - IC rose from 7,157.0 to 7,166.6, an increase of 9.6 or 0.13% [3] - IM fell from 7,303.2 to 7,281.8, a decrease of 21.4 or - 0.29% [3] Stock Indices - The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose from 2,939.5 to 2,952.7, an increase of 13.2 or 0.45% [3] - The CSI 300 Index rose from 4,566.1 to 4,593.5, an increase of 27.4 or 0.60% [3] - The CSI 500 Index rose from 7,323.7 to 7,341.3, an increase of 17.6 or 0.24% [3] - The CSI 1000 Index fell from 7,534.2 to 7,506.5, a decrease of 27.7 or - 0.37% [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.32 to 102.31, a decrease of 0.008 or - 0.01% [3] - TF fell from 105.57 to 105.53, a decrease of 0.04 or - 0.04% [3] - T fell from 107.65 to 107.61, a decrease of 0.04 or - 0.04% [3] - TL rose from 114.07 to 114.11, an increase of 0.04 or 0.04% [3] Group 4: Market News Overall Market - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, the ChiNext Index rose by more than 1.5%, reaching a new high in over three years. Most stocks fell, with more than 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declining. The trading volume was 2.39 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58% [1][4] Industry Sectors - The controllable nuclear fusion concept rose during the session, with Shanghai Electric and Hefei Forging Intelligent Technology hitting the daily limit. The shipping sector adjusted, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Marine falling by more than 5% [4] Popular Concepts - The AI hardware and AI application sectors strengthened, with Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC futures contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [7][8][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] Exchange Rates - There are charts showing the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and various currency pairs [22][23][24][26][27][28] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [30] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures [30]

1. Index Trends - On September 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.01%, closing at 3853.3 points with a trading volume of 1001.211 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of 0.67%, closing at 13445.9 points with a trading volume of 1369.879 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.37% and a trading volume of 464.745 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7521.32, a closing price of 7506.51, a daily high of 7563.08, and a low of 7487.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of 0.24% and a trading volume of 493.047 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7325.66, a closing price of 7341.32, a daily high of 7379.61, and a low of 7312.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of 0.6% and a trading volume of 669.867 billion yuan, with an opening price of 4563.98, a closing price of 4593.49, a daily high of 4613.95, and a low of 4558.84 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of 0.45% and a trading volume of 158.667 billion yuan, with an opening price of 2944.73, a closing price of 2952.74, a daily high of 2962.18, and a low of 2941.87 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index rose -27.71 points from the previous closing price. Media and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while basic chemicals, machinery, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 17.61 points from the previous closing price. Computer, machinery, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the non - banking financial sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 27.42 points from the previous closing price. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 13.23 points from the previous closing price. Non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while food and beverage and banking sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -69.91, IM01 of -156.48, IM02 of -236.36, and IM03 of -449.96 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -51.53, IC01 of -122.3, IC02 of -177.77, and IC03 of -356.12 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -8.53, IF01 of -24.0, IF02 of -33.81, and IF03 of -65.69 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 2.04, IH01 of -0.05, IH02 of 1.44, and IH03 of -0.53 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc.) [21]. - For IC, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc.) [23]. - For IF, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc.) [24]. - For IH, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc.) [26].

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]

Group 1: Research Views - On September 24, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.84%. The open interest decreased by 2,765 lots to 271,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,604 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The open interest decreased by 4,904 lots to 111,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 1,120 yuan/ton [2]. - Before the double festivals, the price of silicon coal increased, the resumption of industrial silicon production slowed down, and downstream stocking increased the operating rate, leading to inventory depletion. In the short term, there is a coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure, providing some upward support [2]. - A draft of the energy - consumption policy for polysilicon was released, with a slight increase in the first - and second - level standards. Due to Trump's plan to include silicon products in the tax list, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon during the stage when both domestic and foreign policies are not yet implemented. The policy and the actual supply - demand situation deviate, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may continue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic policies and the US tax rate agreement [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Futures Settlement Price - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose from 8,925 yuan/ton on September 23 to 9,020 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 8,890 yuan/ton to 8,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon: The main contract rose from 50,260 yuan/ton on September 23 to 51,380 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 1,120 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 50,215 yuan/ton to 51,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,775 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Price - Industrial silicon: Most spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable from September 23 to September 24 [3]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type polysilicon dense material, N - type recycled polysilicon material, N - type granular silicon material, P - type polysilicon dense material, and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51,000 yuan/ton, 52,500 yuan/ton, 49,500 yuan/ton, 36,000 yuan/ton, and 37,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Organic silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable at 11,100 yuan/ton, 12,100 yuan/ton, and 11,800 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil rose from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [3]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 38 to 49,925; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 620 to 249,370 tons; the weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 to 79,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Kunming Port remained unchanged at 49,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 3,800 to 261,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,800 to 444,400 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 7,850; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.2 to 23.70 million tons; the weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.8 to 24.21 million tons; the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.8 to 24.2 million tons [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][17][19]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][24][26]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly, with domestic spot imports in a loss situation. The strong real - estate demand in the US exceeded market expectations, showing economic resilience. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia may have a long - term impact on copper supply, and it is expected to drive a significant increase in the average copper price in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to follow the trend and mainly go long on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. However, domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. The subsequent increase in aluminum prices depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The bottom of the nickel price may rise slightly due to macro factors, supply - side disturbances, and the strengthening of raw material prices, but inventory remains a resistance to the price increase [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - **Macro**: US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, much higher than the expected 650,000 units, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman and called for a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year [1]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 144,775 tons to 200 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 142 tons to 288,695 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, and BC copper remained at 6,445 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers are afraid of high copper prices and macro uncertainties, with weak procurement enthusiasm, and domestic social inventory de - stocking is not ideal [1]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia is expected to reduce copper and gold production by about 35% (about 270,000 tons) in 2026 compared to previous expectations, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will also be greatly affected [1]. Aluminum - **Futures**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,916 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; AL2510 closed at 20,805 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; AD2511 closed at 20,435 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1][2]. - **Spot**: SMM alumina price dropped to 3,008 yuan/ton, aluminum ingot spot discount was 10 yuan/ton to par, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,620 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point, and downstream procurement willingness has declined [2]. Nickel - **Futures**: LME nickel rose 0.62% to 15,435 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.88% to 122,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 132 tons to 120,586 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons to 24,971 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sanctions on 39 nickel - mining enterprises in Indonesia have little impact on overall supply. In the stainless - steel sector, cost support has strengthened, but supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand has weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may be relatively tight [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons, and the total inventory increased by 11,760 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 3,450 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 9,229 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 1,224 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 765 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 2,334 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.5%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 17 US dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown [43][45][49]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a master's degree in science and is currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [52]. - **Wang Heng**: He holds a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is mainly responsible for the research on aluminum and silicon [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: She holds a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK, and focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate downward. The new - season corn supply is abundant, trade merchants have low inventory - holding willingness, and the mid - term outlook remains weak despite a technical rebound of the November contract [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. The price is affected by concerns over US soybean export demand and domestic pre - holiday stocking. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil trades in a narrow range, and domestic oils stop falling. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. As the National Day holiday approaches, the demand peak is ending. The supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity provides some support. Light - position participation is recommended [1]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. Pig supply is normal with some regional increases, and holiday demand has limited boosting effects. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 32.9%, and that of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed is 14.3% [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin levels of various futures contracts around the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin standards and price limit ranges of some futures contracts during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, and some contracts will return to pre - adjustment levels after the holiday [4]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][11][14][17][19][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.75% to 66.14 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.07% to 13,555. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,775 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The international market's focus is on the macro - level, and the strong U.S. dollar index pressured the U.S. cotton futures price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton stopped falling on the 24th, and the market sentiment improved. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is pressure from the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton faces upward pressure but has limited downward space due to multiple factors [2]. - For sugar, the consulting agency StoneX predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase from the 2025/26 season, and the cane crushing volume will reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar futures price rebounded above 5500 points, and before the holiday, with margin increases, it is expected to show weak oscillations. Attention should be paid to the crushing progress in Inner Mongolia [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 15 (up 35), the main contract basis was 1507 (down 86). The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,024 yuan per ton (down 46), and the national spot price was 15,062 yuan per ton (down 71) [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 37 (up 11), the main contract basis was 358 (down 53). The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged) [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 24th, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3716 (down 199 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 12. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,024 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,044 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,064 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,135 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 24th, the yarn comprehensive load was 50.2 (up 0.1), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.9 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5 (down 0.3), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.1 (up 0.1) [4]. - On September 24th, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 9854 (down 168 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices of both cotton and sugar, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many industry - related awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [22]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [25].