光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 04 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 4 月 24 日，A 股市场窄幅震荡，Wind 全 A 收跌 0.49%，成交额 1.14 万亿元， | | | | 特朗普对于关税的态度出现软化，声称对中国关税税率将大幅降低，但不会 | | | | 为 0 。受此影响，黄金高位回落，美股止跌。内盘则轮动较为明显，在经历 | | | | 了出口相关板块复苏后，当日出口题材再次回落；银行、消费板块走强拉动 | | | | 大盘指数。中证 1000 指数下跌 1.07%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.525%，沪深 300 | | | | 指数下跌 0.07%，上证 50 指数上涨 0.25%。2025 年一季度，我国一般公共预 | | | | 算收入同比-1.1%，但支出同比提升 4.2%，显示出积极政策的特征，其中普 | | | | 通国债发行进度达 30%，节奏显著前置。此前，统计局公布多项一季度经济 | | | 股指 | 数据：中国一季度 GDP 录得 5.4%；3 月社零同比 5. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][4][7][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is affected by the US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes, and the market is in a state of repeated operation [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by reduced arbitrage shipments, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure eases with the approaching summer demand [1][3] - The asphalt production profit has recovered, and the refinery's production enthusiasm has improved, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - Polyester product prices mainly follow the cost - end, and the price of ethylene glycol is expected to run in a low - range [3][4] - The rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the approaching holiday production cut of downstream tire factories and cautious terminal orders [4][7] - The methanol supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose [7] - The polyolefin market is affected by tariff policies, with supply pressure easing and demand weakening [7][9] - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 6 - month contract rose 0.52 dollars to 62.79 dollars/barrel (0.84% increase), Brent 6 - month contract rose 0.43 dollars to 66.55 dollars/barrel (0.65% increase), and SC2506 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel (1.00% increase). The US's inconsistent policies and OPEC+ internal disputes make the market volatile [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2507 fell 1.12% to 2998 yuan/ton, and LU2506 fell 0.86% to 3446 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur market is supported by reduced shipments, and the high - sulfur market pressure eases with approaching summer demand [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2506 rose 0.38% to 3406 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment of domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 20.4% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased. The production profit has recovered, but the actual consumption has not increased significantly [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 fell 0.86% to 4370 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 1.67% to 4179 yuan/ton. The production load of polyester and ethylene glycol has changed, and product prices mainly follow the cost - end [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2509 rose 40 yuan/ton to 14735 yuan/ton, NR fell 130 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR fell 60 yuan/ton to 11235 yuan/ton. The downstream tire factories are expected to cut production before the holiday, and the rubber price is expected to be volatile and weak [4][7] - **Methanol**: The supply is high, and the future supply - demand may be loose due to device maintenance and increased future arrivals [7] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polypropylene and polyethylene has changed. The refinery's maintenance increases, but the demand weakens due to tariff policies [7][9] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is slightly adjusted. The supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile [9] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on April 24 and 23, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [10] 3. Market News - The third - round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations this week may lead to Iran's crude oil return, but the new US sanctions on Iran limit the oil price increase. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests over OPEC+ quotas [12] - The Bank of England Governor believes that the concern about the US dollar losing its reserve currency status is "excessive" [12] 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc [29][31][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP production, etc [69][70][72] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [74][75][76]

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米 5 月合约资金继续向 7 月移仓，玉米 7 月合约在 2300 元前低位置企 稳上行，7 月增仓上行带动 5 月跟涨，日间涨幅扩大。目前国内玉米均价 2269 利润转差，企业采购心态谨慎，部分企业仍有提价锁定粮源行为，收购价格整体 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，价格上涨 4 元/吨。 今日东北地区玉米价格稳定运行。近期深加工企业 | | | 玉米 | 稳定。华北地区玉米价格有涨有跌。经过前期上涨，部分企业到货车辆增加，价 | | | | 格窄幅下调，但也有企业价格窄幅上调，主流价格保持稳定。基层购销相对清淡， | | | | 部分贸易商依然逢高出货。技术上，玉米 7 月合约 2300 元/吨整数关口是近期价 | | | | 格的密集成交区。周初，期货市场在小麦干旱减产的预期之下，期价快速拉升， | | | | 期、现价差再度扩大，短线关注 7 月合约 2330 元的前高压力表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周三，CBOT 大豆上涨，因围绕全球贸易局势的担忧有所缓 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 4 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-04-23 | 2025-04-22 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 68980 | 67840 | 1140 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 69060 | 68000 | 1060 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 795 | 800 | - 5 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 950 | 980 | -30 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1610 | 1640 | -30 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6700 | 6740 | -40 | | | | 磷锂铝石 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 2.8%，报收 69.1 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 1.21%，报收 12990 元 | | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 4879 手 56.76 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13988 元 | | | | /吨，较前一日下降 94 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14151 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日下降 67 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面扰动仍然较大，特朗普对华关税政 | | | | 策态度缓和，承认美国对自中国进口商品非关税过高，预计税率将大幅降低。市场 | 震荡偏 | | | 担忧情绪降温，美元走强，黄金走弱，美棉价格走强。国内市场方面，受情绪端影 | | | | 响，昨日大宗商品多数走强，郑棉期价重心也随之上移。展望未来，关税等宏观层 | 强 | | | 面较此前最差情况再度恶化概率较低。供需基本面来看，目前是新棉种植期，供应 | | | | 端扰动不大，下游需求虽相对有限， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts and Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts on April 24, 2025, were 776.0, 727.5, and 698.5 respectively, with changes of 10.5, 16.5, and 14.0 compared to the previous day [2]. - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 were 48.5, 29.0, and -77.5 respectively, with changes of -6.0, 2.5, and 3.5 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.2 Basis - The basis data of various iron ore varieties on April 24, 2025, are presented, showing changes compared to the previous day. For example, the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 17 to 87, and the basis of PB fines decreased by 11 to 92 [4]. 3.3 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate) were added, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10]. - The brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [10]. - The allowable ranges of iron grade and other elements were adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element was introduced [10]. - Four more brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, and SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums of 0 [10]. - The adjusted deliverable brands and their premiums apply to contracts I2312 and later [11]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - The variety spreads of different iron ore products on April 24, 2025, are provided, showing changes compared to the previous day. For example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines remained unchanged at 132.0, while the spread of PB fines - FMG mixed fines decreased by 9.0 to 88.0 [12].

黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面明显上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3137 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 62 元/吨，涨幅为 2.02%，持仓减少 4.44 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 震荡偏强 | | | 上涨 50 元/吨至 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 50 元/吨至 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 14.1 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回升 11.26 万吨至 431.1 万吨，社库减少 43.05 万吨至 699.16 万吨， | | | | 厂库减少 14.76 万吨至 348.7 万吨，建材表需回升 22.27 万吨至 488.88 万吨。建材产量继续回升，库存降 | | | | 幅扩大，表需回升。美国总统特朗普当地时间周二（4 月 22 日）在公开场合发表了讲话，他承认美国目前 | | | | 对中国出口商品的关税过高，预计税率将大幅降低。关税战形势出现一定的缓解迹 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 4 月 24日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三尿素现货价格多数持稳，局部仍有回调，个别主流地区价格下调幅度10元/吨 | | | | ，山东地区市场价格跌至1830元/吨。基本面来看，尿素日产量昨日 持在19.35万 | | | | 吨。需求端刚需 量跟进，低端价格成交依旧 好。昨日主流地区现货产销率多数 | | | 尿素 | 持100%以上，但区域间表现也仍存分化。本周尿素企业库存 幅17.52%，压制 | 震荡 | | | 市场心态。五一假期前企业仍有收单计划，中下游也仍有补库预期。若市场高成交 | | | | 得以持续，盘面有望继续受到支撑。关注现货市场成交情况、需求跟进力度。 | | | | 周三纯碱期货价格强势反弹，主力09合约收盘上涨3.39%至1373元/吨。现货市场基 | | | | 本稳定，贸易商环节报价跟 盘面情绪有所回暖。昨日沙河及周边地区重碱贸易自 | | | | 提价格1342元/吨，日环比涨48元/吨。基本面来看 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 23, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2506 contract closing at 39,135 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.7%, and the position decreasing by 5,250 lots to 60,991 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,865 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main 2505 contract closing at 8,930 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.08%, and the position increasing by 6,063 lots to 18,250 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 65 yuan/ton [2]. - The industrial silicon production cut plan has been further expanded. Yili will stop production in early May, and the resumption of production in the southwest has been postponed. Due to severe losses, some production capacities have shifted to sectors such as ferroalloys. In addition, the sharp decline in polysilicon prices has further dragged down industrial silicon. Currently, the speed of silicon plant shutdowns is much lower than the pace of price declines, and subsequent production cuts are unlikely to reverse the current situation, and the price may continue to bottom out. The terminal demand for polysilicon still shows signs of further stalling. Under the pressure of structural mismatch, weak expectations will deepen further. A bearish outlook is still maintained, and attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy trends, while being vigilant against abnormal movements before the delivery month [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract was 8,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan from the previous day; the price of the near - month contract was 8,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades remained unchanged, while the price of the oxygen - free 553 silicon in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan to 8,950 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 100 yuan to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 150 yuan to 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract was 39,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,115 yuan from the previous day; the price of the near - month contract was 39,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,115 yuan. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged at 42,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 1,115 yuan to 2,865 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton for raw rubber, 14,000 yuan/ton for some products, and 13,300 yuan/ton for 107 glue. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,700 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts at the GFE decreased by 74 tons to 69,820 tons. The total industrial silicon inventory (weekly) increased by 595 tons to 351,805 tons, and the total inventory including factory warehouses increased by 3,200 tons to 407,300 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][14][15][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][19][20][21][22]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][27][28][30][31]. 3. Research Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst; Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [33][34]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 隔夜 铜尾盘回落，下跌 0.16%至 9369 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.36%至 77480 | LME | | | | 元/吨；现货进口窗口小幅打开。宏观方面，美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 初值 51.2，低于 | | | | | 预期 和前值 53.5，其中 4 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 50.7，好于预期 49 和前值 | 52 | | | | 50.2；4 Markit 服务业 PMI 初值 51.4，低于预期 52.6 和前值 54.4。就业指数低迷、通 | 月 | | | | 胀预期升温，商业活动信心受挫。面对经济困境，特朗普昨晚表示，美联储不再降息是 | | | | | 在犯错，将与鲍威尔通话沟通。美国财长贝森特昨晚表示，特朗普还未对个别主要经济 | | | | | 体提出单方面降低关税，双方达成全面贸易协议可能需两三年。库存方面，LME 铜库 | | | | 铜 | 存 ...