Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market shows obvious high - low switching among sectors, with the cooling of pro - cyclical popularity and structural differentiation in stock indices [2]. - The central bank's increased reverse - repurchase injection stabilizes the capital - market expectation. Commodity price corrections due to trading restrictions have improved bond - market sentiment, but short - term volatility is still inevitable [2][3]. - The gold price is supported above the 60 - day moving average by its commodity attribute as the US dollar credit weakens, while silver has further upside potential [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For II - 2509, gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract and reduce the position. For other stock index futures like IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital - market and incremental policies [2]. - **Bond Futures**: TS2509, TF2509, etc. have improved sentiment due to commodity price corrections, but short - term fluctuations are likely. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold has been falling as the US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar index, but it is supported above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential, and long positions can be held [2][3]. Black - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore has limited upward momentum as iron - water production slightly decreases and port inventories slightly increase. Suggest selling short at high prices for 2509 contracts [2][3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short coking coal and long coke. The fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has partially been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases [2][3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress demand in the short term, and the main contract reference range is 78000 - 80000 [2][3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices have slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is strong. Other non - ferrous metals also have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions [3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about supply contraction, leading to a rise in oil prices. Short - term band trading is recommended, with resistance levels given for different benchmarks [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products like soybeans, palm oil, sugar, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions, such as range - bound trading, short - selling on rebounds, etc. [3]. Special Commodities - Commodities like glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions, such as short - selling cautiously [3]. New Energy - Commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have been affected by the overall weakening of the commodity market, with corresponding trading suggestions like holding short positions cautiously or waiting and watching [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. It mainly provides a comprehensive list of various commodity futures and their corresponding spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references. 3) Summary by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore (12509)**: Spot price not clear, futures price 813, basis 27, basis rate 3.39%, historical quantile not provided, reference: 62.5% BRBF (Vale) at Rizhao Port [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price 1260, futures price 1101, basis 160, basis rate 14.49%, historical quantile 69.30%, reference: S1.3 G75 Main Coking Coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1] - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price 79075, futures price 79000, basis 75, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 50.20%, reference: SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price [1] - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price 20660, futures price 20615, basis 45, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 61.87%, reference: SMM A00 Aluminum Average Price [1] - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price 268800, futures price 267880, basis 920, basis rate 0.34%, historical quantile 71.66%, reference: SMM 1 Tin Average Price [1] - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price 771.6, futures price 774.8, basis -3.2, basis rate -0.41%, historical quantile 18.60%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Spot AU (T+D) [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price 9186.0, futures price 9212.0, basis -26.0, basis rate -0.28%, historical quantile 32.70%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver Spot AG (T+D) [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price 3244, futures price 3243, basis not clear, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 33.48%, reference: SMM Alumina Index Average Price [1] - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price 122500, futures price 121620, basis 880, basis rate 0.72%, historical quantile 85.62%, reference: SMM 1 Imported Nickel Average Price [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price 13070, futures price 12840, basis 230, basis rate 1.79%, historical quantile 44.42%, reference: 304/2B:2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (Including Trimming Fee) [1] - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price 5878, futures price 5840, basis 38, basis rate 0.65%, historical quantile 63.00%, reference: Converted Price: 72 Silicon Iron Qualified Blocks: Inner Mongolia - Tianjin Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price 5970, futures price 6028, basis -58, basis rate -0.96%, historical quantile 17.80%, reference: Converted Price: 6517 Silicon Manganese: Inner Mongolia - Hubei Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price 3390, futures price 3248, basis 142, basis rate 4.37%, reference: HRB400 20mm: Shanghai [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price 3440, futures price 3397, basis 43, basis rate 1.27%, reference: Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [1] Chemicals and Energy - **Carbonate Lithium (LC2509)**: Spot price 73900, futures price 73120, basis 780, basis rate 1.07%, historical quantile 62.77%, reference: SMM Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium Average Price [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price 9950, futures price 8915, basis 1035, basis rate 11.61%, reference: SMM Annual Flux 215530 Average Price [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price 4800.0, futures price 4812.0, basis -12.0, basis rate -0.29%, historical quantile 47.10%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA): East China Region [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price 4500.0, futures price 4436.0, basis 64.0, basis rate 1.44%, historical quantile 83.00%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Ethylene Glycol (MEG): East China Region [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price 6610.0, futures price 6482.0, basis 128.0, basis rate 1.97%, historical quantile 73.60%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyester Staple Fiber (1.4D*38mm (Direct Spinning)): East China Market [1] - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price 7370.0, futures price 7358.0, basis 12.0, basis rate 0.16%, historical quantile 28.90%, reference: China: East China: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Styrene [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price 7340.0, futures price 7335.0, basis 5.0, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 21.10%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Linear Low - Density Polyethylene LLDPE (Film Grade): Shandong [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price 7165.0, futures price 7130.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.49%, historical quantile 31.40%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Polypropylene PP (Drawing Grade, Melt Index 2 - 4): Zhejiang [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2593.0, basis 0.8, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 48.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price) Caustic Soda (32% Ion - Membrane Caustic Soda): Shandong Market: Converted to 100% [1] - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price 4448.0, futures price 3992.0, basis 456.0, basis rate 11.42%, historical quantile 62.90%, reference: Market Price: Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Guangzhou Region [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price 3775.0, futures price 3569.0, basis 206.0, basis rate 5.77%, historical quantile 82.70%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Asphalt (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt): Shandong Region [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price 1200.0, futures price 1223.0, basis -23.0, basis rate -1.98%, historical quantile 57.77%, reference: Float Glass: 5mm: Large Plate: Market Price: Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (Daily) [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price 1320.0, futures price 1316.0, basis 4.0, basis rate 0.30%, historical quantile 33.61%, reference: Soda Ash: Heavy - Duty: Market Price: Shahe (Daily) [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price 1780.0, futures price 1738.0, basis 42.0, basis rate 2.42%, historical quantile 24.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Urea (Small Granules): Shandong Region [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price 2392.5, futures price 2404.0, basis -11.5, basis rate -0.48%, historical quantile 27.30%, reference: China: Jiangsu Taicang: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Methanol [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price 5100.0, futures price 5149.0, basis -49.0, basis rate -0.99%, historical quantile 67.80%, reference: China: Changzhou Market: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyvinyl Chloride (SG - 5) [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR9000)**: Spot price 12100.0, futures price 11955.0, basis 145.0, basis rate 1.21%, historical quantile 44.10%, reference: China: Distribution Price: Butadiene Rubber (Daqing, BR9000): PetroChina East China [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price 15100.0, futures price 15065.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.23%, historical quantile 96.87%, reference: Shanghai Market Price: Natural Rubber (Yunnan State - Owned Full - Latex) [1] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price 2540, futures price 2660.0, basis -120.0, historical quantile 15.90%, reference: Guangdong Zhanjiang Factory Price: Common Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price 9490, futures price 9406.0, basis 84.0, basis rate 0.89%, historical quantile 36.50%, reference: Jiangsu: Nantong: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price 2350, futures price 2319.0, basis 31.0, basis rate 1.34%, historical quantile 63.30%, reference: FOB Price: Corn: Xizhou Port [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Some data missing, reference: Jilin: Changchun: Factory Price: Corn Starch [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price 14080, futures price 14125.0, basis -45.0, basis rate -0.32%, historical quantile 41.30%, reference: Henan Factory Price: Live Hogs (External Ternary) [1] - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price 3040, futures price 3576.0, basis -536.0, basis rate -14.99%, historical quantile 5.90%, reference: Hebei: Shijiazhuang: Average Price: Eggs [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price 15473, futures price 14075.0, basis 1398.0, basis rate 9.93%, reference: Xinjiang: Factory - Arrival Price: Cotton: 3128B [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8052.0, basis 548.0, basis rate 6.81%, historical quantile 43.40%, reference: Apples: Delivery Theoretical Price (Daily/Steel Union) [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 8300, futures price 10695.0, basis -2395.0, basis rate -22.39%, historical quantile 6.50%, reference: Grey Jujubes: First - Grade: Wholesale Price: Hebei (Steel Union) [1] - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price 2860, futures price 2990.0, basis -130.0, basis rate -4.35%, historical quantile 15.30%, reference: Jiangsu·Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Common Protein Soybean Meal [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price 8180, futures price 8120.0, basis 60.0, basis rate 0.74%, historical quantile 4.30%, reference: Jiangsu: Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Soybean Oil [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price 8940, futures price 8946.0, basis -6.0, basis rate -0.07%, historical quantile 15.20%, reference: Delivery Price: Palm Oil: Huangpu Port [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price 6120, futures price 5845.0, basis 275.0, basis rate 4.70%, historical quantile 53.80%, reference: Spot Price: White Sugar: Liuzhou Platform [1] - **Paraxylene (PX509)**: Spot price 7018.2, futures price 6890.0, basis 128.2, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 61.40%, reference: China Main Port: Spot Price (CFR): Paraxylene: Converted to RMB [1] Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: Spot price 4135.8, futures price 4122.0, basis -13.8, basis rate -0.34%, historical quantile 30.10% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: Some data missing [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price 6730.0, futures price 6602.0, basis -128.0, basis rate -1.94%, historical quantile 9.60% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price 100.27, futures price 102.36, basis 0.00, historical quantile 25.50%, conversion factor 0.9796 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: Spot price 100.79, futures price 108.40, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 20.80%, conversion factor provided [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price 100.71, futures price 105.72, basis 0.04, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 32.50%, conversion factor 0.9522 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price 134.26, futures price 118.80, basis 0.26, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 35.20%, conversion factor 1.12

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Affected by market sentiment, the steel futures market declined significantly, but the decline in spot prices was smaller than that in futures, leading to a stronger basis. The supply - demand of steel is basically balanced, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. In the short - term, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions, attention should be paid to the support levels of 3300 yuan/ton for rebar and 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipments increased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. The demand side remains strong with high - level iron - making water production. The port inventory increased slightly last week. In the future, iron - making water production will remain high in July, and the improvement in steel mill profits will support raw materials. However, iron ore is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend [3]. Coke - The coke futures market showed a weak limit - down trend, while the factory prices of spot coke increased, and the port trading prices decreased. The supply from coal mines has not recovered as expected, and the demand from downstream iron - making water has provided support. The overall inventory is at a medium level. The large - scale replenishment by downstream steel mills is conducive to the future price increase of coke [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a limit - down trend across the board. The supply of coal mines is recovering slowly, and the demand from downstream coking and iron - making is strong. The overall inventory is at a medium level. The positive factors have been fully digested, and the upward trend has ended due to exchange intervention. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3311 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slabs decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions increased to varying degrees. For instance, the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 tons to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1%, with rebar production increasing by 1.4% and hot - rolled coil production decreasing by 1.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1%, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 13.6%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders increased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 828.2 yuan/ton to 816.2 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 17.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also declined [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5% week - on - week, and the global shipments increased by 3.0% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average clearing volume decreased by 2.4%, and the national monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 0.0%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the 09 contract of coke decreased from 1763 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.8%, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.5%, the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 10.2% [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures decreased, and the prices of some spot varieties increased. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal decreased from 1259 yuan/ton to 1101 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) increased from 1100 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal production decreased by 0.5%, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1% [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 16.1%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.1%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 9.1% [5].

| F미 【2011 1292号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月29日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | aaro | 10100 | -150 | -1.49% | | | 基美(通氧SI5530基准) | 1035 | 375 | ୧୧୦ | 176.00% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10200 | 10350 | -150 | -1.45% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 485 | -175 | 660 | 377.14% | | | 新疆99硅 | 9300 | dvi20 | -150 | -1.59% | | | 墓差(新疆) | J182 | 525 | 680 | 125.71% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows structural differentiation, with the cyclical sectors cooling down and the non - cyclical sectors showing different performances. Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and the market is affected by both domestic and international news, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][8] - For different commodities, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals, including supply, demand, and inventory [13][20][40] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a trend of opening higher, turning down, and then rising. The major indexes generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The non - bank sector rose, while the cyclical sectors such as coal and shipping fell. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts showed seasonal repair [2][3] - **News**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase investment in the US and purchase US military and energy products [3][4] - **Funding**: On July 28, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.74 trillion. The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indexes maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the interim report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions of MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract to reduce the position [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.56%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.18%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.04%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 28, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan. The money market became looser at the end of the month [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The central bank increased reverse repurchase investment, and the decline in commodity prices improved the bond market sentiment. However, the short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the money market and incremental policies. The 10 - year Treasury bond has certain allocation value. The 2509 - 2512 contract spread may tend to rise in the short term [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The US and the EU announced a trade agreement, which boosted the US dollar index. Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, with international gold closing at $3314.78 per ounce, down 0.67%. International silver prices were flat at $38.14 per ounce [8][9] - **News**: The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the April forecast. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: Before August 1, more countries may reach trade agreements with the US, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low, which will support the US dollar and suppress gold prices. Gold prices may test the support of the 60 - day moving average. Silver prices are driven by ETF funds, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping - European Routes - **Spot Price**: As of July 28, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range. The SCFIS European route index fell 3.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index fell 46.98% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 28, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in June showed the economic situation [11] - **Market Logic**: The futures market oscillated downward, and the main 10 - contract closed down 1.62%. The uncertainty of prices in August has decreased, and it is expected to show an oscillating trend in the future. Spot prices will not fluctuate significantly in the short term and are expected to decline slowly in the long term [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream consumption willingness was low. High copper prices inhibited downstream procurement [13] - **Macro**: The domestic "anti - involution" policy affects copper from both demand and supply aspects, but there is a risk of macro - sentiment ebbing in the short term [13] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrates may be restricted, and the production of refined copper in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase in July [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand for copper showed a certain trend. The weekly operating rate of copper rod production decreased, but the terminal demand still had some resilience [15] - **Inventory**: COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16] - **Market Logic**: Macro - sentiment may ebb, and the copper market shows a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. However, domestic policies and low inventories support copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the "anti - involution" policy and overseas tariff policies [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 80000 [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On July 28, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17] - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the port inventory and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Market Logic**: The futures price fell due to the ebbing of market sentiment. Although the supply of bauxite in Guinea may be tight and the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the increase in production capacity will push up the supply. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the main contract expected to operate between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19] - **Supply**: In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline in July. The operating capacity is expected to remain high [20] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries are relatively stable or slightly decreased [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased. The LME inventory increased [20][21] - **Market Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy sentiment cooled down, and aluminum prices decreased slightly. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory may increase. It is expected to oscillate widely between 20200 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [21] - **Supply**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and other factors [22] - **Demand**: The demand in June was under pressure, and the market transaction was sluggish. The downstream maintains a low - inventory procurement strategy [22] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventory in some areas was close to full [22] - **Market Logic**: The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly between 19600 - 20400 [23] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot transaction was not smooth [23] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate in May and June was lower than expected. The production of refined zinc increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July [24] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries are differentiated. The galvanizing industry is relatively stable, while the die - casting and zinc oxide industries are in the off - season [25][26] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26] - **Market Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is weak, and the inventory may enter the accumulation cycle. It is expected to oscillate between 22000 - 23000 [27] Tin - **Spot**: On July 28, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market was in a "price but no market" situation [27] - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased. The supply of tin ore is currently tight, but Myanmar's production is expected to resume in late August [28] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. The LME and domestic inventories increased [28][29] - **Market Logic**: The market sentiment weakened, and tin prices fell from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [29] Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly in July [30] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [31] - **Market Logic**: The macro - sentiment turned weak, and the nickel market is affected by supply and demand and macro - factors. It is expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 128000 [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [33] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weak and stable. The chromium iron market is stable [33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in July decreased month - on - month [34] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated weakly. The macro - sentiment ebbed, the supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12600 - 13200 [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 28, the spot prices of lithium salts increased, but the futures market limit - down, and the basis narrowed [35] - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. However, there are some supply disturbances [36] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, with some differentiation among different manufacturers. The demand in July is expected to increase slightly [36] - **Inventory**: The whole - chain inventory is increasing, but the inventory growth rate slowed down last week [37] - **Market Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and news, and the trading core has shifted to the ore end. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [38] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [40] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and iron ore has different trends. The profit of steel mills has increased [40] - **Supply**: The production of molten iron remains high, and the production of steel has changed slightly. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [40] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of five major steel products remains high, and the inventory is stable [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products is at a low level and remains stable. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [41] - **Viewpoint**: Affected by market sentiment, steel prices decreased. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3300 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils [41] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [42] - **Futures**: As of July 24, the prices of iron ore futures decreased [42] - **Basis**: The cost of different iron ore warehouse receipts is different, and the basis of different varieties is also different [42] - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are at a relatively high level [42] - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [44] - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price oscillated downward. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the "anti - involution" speculation may end, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short on rallies [44] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures limit - down, and some spot prices began to fall. The market sentiment declined [45] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the supply is still tight. The price of imported coking coal decreased [45][47] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production is stable, and the downstream demand for molten iron is high [46][47] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is at a medium level, with the coal mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [46][47] - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal futures limit - down due to position - limit intervention. The supply and demand fundamentals are improving, but the previous increase has fully digested the positive factors. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations, be cautious about shorting on rallies, and conduct arbitrage operations [48] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures limit - down, the factory price increased, and the port price decreased. The fourth - round price increase of some coke enterprises has partially landed [49][50] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative, but there are differences among different regions [49] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mine production and enterprise losses [49][50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for molten iron is high, providing support for coke [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke enterprises and ports decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50] - **Viewpoint**: The coke futures limit - down, and the spot price is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting on rallies and conduct arbitrage operations [50] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased in some regions, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [51] - **Fundamentals**: The US exported soybeans to Mexico, speculators reduced short positions in soybean meal futures, Argentina reduced export tariffs on agricultural products, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [52] - **Market Outlook**: US soybeans oscillate at the bottom, and the new crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, suppressing the price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [52][53] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, with different trends in different regions [54] - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows and the profit of

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the reports. The documents mainly contain data on various financial products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and trading calendars. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures (Doc 1) - **IF期现价差**: The latest value is -13.82, a change of -2.66 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 32.70% and an all - time quantile of 30.10% [1]. - **IH期现价差**: The latest value is 3.03, a change of 1.75 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.50% and an all - time quantile of 75.00% [1]. - **IC期现价差**: The latest value is -101.42 [1]. - **IM期现价差**: The latest value is -27.17, a change of -127.98 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 70.00% and an all - time quantile of 9.60% [1]. - **跨期价差**: There are various values for different contracts (e.g., IF跨期价差, IH跨期价差, IC跨期价差, IM跨期价差) with corresponding changes and quantiles [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, IC/IF is 1.5095, a change of -0.0007 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 84.40% and an all - time quantile of 66.70% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **基差**: TS基差 is 1.5937, TF基差 is 1.4203, T基差 is 1.4264, and TL基差 is 1.3256 on 2025 - 07 - 28, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **跨期价差**: Different contracts (TS跨期价差, TF跨期价差, T跨期价差, TL跨期价差) have their own values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **跨品种价差**: For example, TS - TF is -3.3580 on 2025 - 07 - 28, with a change of -0.0980 [2]. Precious Metals (Doc 4) - **期货收盘价**: Domestic and foreign futures contracts (AU2510, AG2510, COMEX黄金主力合约, COMEX白银主力合约) have their closing prices, changes, and percentage changes from different dates [4]. - **现货价格**: London gold, London silver, 上金所黄金T + D, and 上金所白银T + D have their prices, changes, and percentage changes [4]. - **基差**: For example, 黄金TD - 沪金主力 is -3.20, with a change of 0.51 from the previous value, and a 1 - year historical quantile of 23.60% [4]. - **比价**: CONEX종(暗 is 86.46, a change of -0.65 from the previous value, with a percentage change of -0.75% [4]. - **利率与汇率**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.42, a change of 0.02 from the previous value, with a percentage change of 0.5% [4]. - **库存与持仓**: 上期所黄金库存 is 30258, with no change from the previous value [4]. Container Shipping (Doc 6) - **现货报价**: Shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe for different shipping companies (MAERSK马士基, CMA达飞, etc.) have their prices, changes, and percentage changes on 2025 - 07 - 29 compared to 2025 - 07 - 28 [6]. - **集运指数**: SCFIS (欧洲航线) settlement price index is 2316.56 on 2025 - 07 - 28, a change of -83.9 from 2025 - 07 - 21, with a percentage change of -3.50% [6]. - **期货价格及基差**: EC2602 has a price of 1541.0 on 2025 - 07 - 28, a change of 22.2 from 2025 - 07 - 25, with a percentage change of 1.46% [6]. - **基本面数据**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3272.71 on 2025 - 07 - 29, with no change from the previous day [6]. Trading Calendar (Doc 7) - **海外数据/资讯**: At 22:00, there will be data on US June JOLTs job openings (in millions) and US July Conference Board consumer confidence index [7]. - **国内数据/资讯**: For example, at 17:00, there will be data on the arrival forecast of MEG in the main ports of East China (in million tons) [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide various data on different futures and related market indicators. Summary by Category 1. Stock Index Futures - **Price - Spread Data**: On July 29, 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different values in terms of spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios. For example, the IF spot - futures spread was - 13.82, with a change of - 2.66 from the previous day, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 32.70% [1]. - **Ratio Data**: Cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., also had specific values and changes. For instance, the IC/IF ratio was 1.5095, with a change of - 0.0007 [1]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: As of July 28, 2025, the IRR of TS was 1.5937, and the basis of TF was 1.4203, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads (e.g., current - quarter to next - quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) had specific values and historical quantiles [2]. 3. Precious Metals - **Price Changes**: From July 25 to July 28, 2025, domestic and foreign precious metal futures and spot prices changed. For example, the AU2510 contract price decreased from 777.32 to 774.78 yuan/gram, a decline of - 0.33% [4]. - **Basis and Ratio**: The basis and ratio of precious metals also changed. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 3.20, with a change of 0.51 from the previous value, and its 1 - year historical quantile was 23.60% [4]. 4. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: On July 29, 2025, the spot quotes of shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route had different changes. For example, MAERSK's quote increased by 3.03% to 3235 dollars/FEU [6]. - **Index Data**: Shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI showed different degrees of decline. For instance, SCFIS (European route) decreased by - 3.50% from July 21 to July 28, 2025 [6]. 5. Trading Calendar - **Overseas Data**: On July 29, 2025, at 22:00, data on US June JOLTs job vacancies and US July Conference Board consumer confidence index were to be released [7]. - **Domestic Data**: Data on various domestic commodities such as manganese silicon, iron ore, polyester, glass, and polysilicon were expected to be updated on the same day, including inventory, port throughput, and production - sales ratios [7].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].