Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - Short - term PX supply is stable, but downstream PTA device maintenance increases in August and terminal demand lacks improvement, so PX trends follow macro - sentiment and oil prices. Strategies include being cautiously bearish on PX09 around 7000 and expanding the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA load is around 80%, and its supply - demand in August is better than expected but still weak in the future. It is recommended to be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the PTA disk processing fee at low levels [2]. - In August, ethylene glycol supply - demand is near balance, with supply turning loose and demand weak. Strategies are to wait and see on EG99 unilaterally and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short - term short - fiber supply - demand is weak, and its price follows raw materials. The PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, but demand is average, and supply is high. The absolute price follows the cost end. PR is the same as PTA unilaterally, and the main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the disk fluctuates along the upper margin of the range. It is recommended to use short - term band strategies, with resistance levels for WTI at [69, 70], Brent at [72, 73], and SC at [525, 535]. Options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - In the third quarter, pure benzene supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits inventory reduction. Its price follows market sentiment. The main - contract BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene unilaterally [10]. - Styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and port inventory increases. Its price is under pressure, and EBO9 should be operated with a rolling bearish strategy [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high production, port inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to expand the MTO09 profit at low levels [30][31]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, PP maintenance decreases, and PE supply pressure increases. Demand is low in July, but there is potential for restocking. Strategies include being bearish on PP unilaterally (7200 - 7300) and holding LP01 [33]. Urea Industry - The urea disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, and export policies restrict demand, leading to inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the start of autumn fertilizers and the resumption of previously - shut - down devices [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - The caustic soda disk is strong, and the spot price is stable. Supply increases, and inventory may rise. It is recommended to be cautious due to macro - disturbances [46]. - The PVC disk sentiment recovers slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and domestic demand is weak, but export expectations are good. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term [46]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, POY150/48 price was 6720 yuan/ton, up 0.1% from the previous day [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA开工率 decreased slightly, while MEG综合开工率 and coal - made MEG开工率 increased [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent crude oil rose 3.53% to 72.51 dollars/barrel, while WTI slightly decreased. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased slightly, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil decreased slightly. Some product oil spreads also changed significantly [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, most pure benzene and styrene - related prices increased slightly. For example, CFR China pure benzene rose 0.9% to 758 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, while styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased. Some开工率 of related industries changed slightly [10]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased, and the MA91 spread and太仓基差 changed [30]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased. Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed slightly [30]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased slightly. Some spreads and基差 changed [33]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and some PE and PP装置开工率 and下游加权开工率 changed slightly [33]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, most urea futures and spot prices decreased slightly. Some spreads and基差 also changed [35][39]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production,开工率, and some inventory data changed. The market is affected by export policies and supply - demand relationships [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, some PVC and caustic soda prices changed. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 1.2% [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率, industry profit, downstream开工率, and inventory data changed. The market has different trends for PVC and caustic soda [44][45][46].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the total positions and the changes in the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures on July 29, 2025 [1][5][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF Futures - Total position: The total position of the IF variety decreased by 4,319 contracts on July 29, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 3,158 contracts [5]. - Top 20 long seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,469 contracts. Huatai Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 518 contracts, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,197 contracts [6]. - Top 20 short seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 48,016 contracts. Guoxin Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 335 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,370 contracts [8]. IH Futures - Total position: The total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,993 contracts on July 29, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 403 contracts. The total position remained relatively stable overall [13]. - Top 20 long seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,110 contracts. Guotou Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 162 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 707 contracts [14]. - Top 20 short seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 19,561 contracts. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 233 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 781 contracts [15]. IC Futures - Total position: The total position of the IC variety decreased by 3,909 contracts on July 29, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 2,825 contracts [20]. - Top 20 long seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,825 contracts. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 576 contracts, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,277 contracts [21]. - Top 20 short seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 39,535 contracts. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 694 contracts, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,525 contracts [22]. IM Futures - Total position: The total position of the IM variety decreased by 8,839 contracts on July 29, with the position of the main contract 2509 decreasing by 5,877 contracts. The total position decreased significantly [26]. - Top 20 long seats: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,516 contracts. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 401 contracts, while Zhongtai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,127 contracts [26]. - Top 20 short seats: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 64,606 contracts. Yong'an Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 145 contracts, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,789 contracts [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectation and weakening demand" in non - US regions after the 232 investigation. The short - term copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The price is supported by domestic macro - policies and low inventory, but the demand is weak due to price rebound and the traditional off - season. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78000 - 80000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price may rebound due to supply tightness in the ore end and low inventory of futures warrants, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the long run. It is recommended to be cautious about the squeeze - out risk and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in the range of 20200 - 21000 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation where the demand is suppressed by the off - season, and the price is restricted by weak demand but has limited downward space due to high scrap aluminum costs. The main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 19600 - 20400 [4]. Zinc - The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long run, but the short - term price rebounds due to positive macro - policies. However, the off - season demand and supply pressure limit the upward space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22000 - 23000 [8]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush. The price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [12]. Nickel - The nickel market shows a weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment has no obvious improvement. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the supply of refined nickel is increasing. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 128000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has a slow - moving spot demand. The price is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13200 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has increased supply - side uncertainties, and the trading focus has shifted to the ore end. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79025 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 316 yuan/ton, up 25.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20620 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is 87.4 yuan/ton, up 1662 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22570 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1637 yuan/ton, up 73.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: The price of SMM 1 tin is 266100 yuan/ton, down 1.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 17714.03 yuan/ton, up 1360.71 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1316 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 12900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73150 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) is 2690 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan/ton from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% from the previous month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% [8]. - **Tin**: In June, the domestic tin ore import was 11911 tons, SMM refined tin production was 13810 tons, and the average smelting plant operating rate was 57.30% [12]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production in June was 31800 tons, down 10.04% from the previous month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in June was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% from the previous month; the demand was 93836 tons, down 0.15% [19].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].

| 原木期货日报 | 班监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量剑气 | Z0019556 | 2025年7月30日 | | | | | | | | | | | 期货和现货价格 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 品种 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | -1.0 | -0.12% | 原木2509 | 830.0 | 831.0 | -5.0 | -0.60% | 原木2511 | 833.0 | 838.0 | | | | -2.5 | -0.30% | 原木2601 | 833.5 | 836.0 | 9-11价差 | -7.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 | | | | | 1.5 | 9-1价差 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 09合约基差 | 1.0 | -90.0 | -91.0 | | | | | | 5.0 | 11合约基差 | -93.0 | -98.0 | 01合约基差 | 2. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market shows obvious high - low switching among sectors, with the cooling of pro - cyclical popularity and structural differentiation in stock indices [2]. - The central bank's increased reverse - repurchase injection stabilizes the capital - market expectation. Commodity price corrections due to trading restrictions have improved bond - market sentiment, but short - term volatility is still inevitable [2][3]. - The gold price is supported above the 60 - day moving average by its commodity attribute as the US dollar credit weakens, while silver has further upside potential [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For II - 2509, gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract and reduce the position. For other stock index futures like IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital - market and incremental policies [2]. - **Bond Futures**: TS2509, TF2509, etc. have improved sentiment due to commodity price corrections, but short - term fluctuations are likely. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold has been falling as the US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar index, but it is supported above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential, and long positions can be held [2][3]. Black - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore has limited upward momentum as iron - water production slightly decreases and port inventories slightly increase. Suggest selling short at high prices for 2509 contracts [2][3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short coking coal and long coke. The fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has partially been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases [2][3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress demand in the short term, and the main contract reference range is 78000 - 80000 [2][3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices have slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is strong. Other non - ferrous metals also have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions [3]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about supply contraction, leading to a rise in oil prices. Short - term band trading is recommended, with resistance levels given for different benchmarks [3]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products like soybeans, palm oil, sugar, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions, such as range - bound trading, short - selling on rebounds, etc. [3]. Special Commodities - Commodities like glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions, such as short - selling cautiously [3]. New Energy - Commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have been affected by the overall weakening of the commodity market, with corresponding trading suggestions like holding short positions cautiously or waiting and watching [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. It mainly provides a comprehensive list of various commodity futures and their corresponding spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references. 3) Summary by Categories Metals - **Iron Ore (12509)**: Spot price not clear, futures price 813, basis 27, basis rate 3.39%, historical quantile not provided, reference: 62.5% BRBF (Vale) at Rizhao Port [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price 1260, futures price 1101, basis 160, basis rate 14.49%, historical quantile 69.30%, reference: S1.3 G75 Main Coking Coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1] - **Copper (CU2509)**: Spot price 79075, futures price 79000, basis 75, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 50.20%, reference: SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price [1] - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price 20660, futures price 20615, basis 45, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 61.87%, reference: SMM A00 Aluminum Average Price [1] - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: Spot price 268800, futures price 267880, basis 920, basis rate 0.34%, historical quantile 71.66%, reference: SMM 1 Tin Average Price [1] - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price 771.6, futures price 774.8, basis -3.2, basis rate -0.41%, historical quantile 18.60%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold Spot AU (T+D) [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price 9186.0, futures price 9212.0, basis -26.0, basis rate -0.28%, historical quantile 32.70%, reference: Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver Spot AG (T+D) [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price 3244, futures price 3243, basis not clear, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 33.48%, reference: SMM Alumina Index Average Price [1] - **Nickel (NISE09)**: Spot price 122500, futures price 121620, basis 880, basis rate 0.72%, historical quantile 85.62%, reference: SMM 1 Imported Nickel Average Price [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: Spot price 13070, futures price 12840, basis 230, basis rate 1.79%, historical quantile 44.42%, reference: 304/2B:2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (Including Trimming Fee) [1] - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price 5878, futures price 5840, basis 38, basis rate 0.65%, historical quantile 63.00%, reference: Converted Price: 72 Silicon Iron Qualified Blocks: Inner Mongolia - Tianjin Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price 5970, futures price 6028, basis -58, basis rate -0.96%, historical quantile 17.80%, reference: Converted Price: 6517 Silicon Manganese: Inner Mongolia - Hubei Warehouse Receipt [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price 3390, futures price 3248, basis 142, basis rate 4.37%, reference: HRB400 20mm: Shanghai [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price 3440, futures price 3397, basis 43, basis rate 1.27%, reference: Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai [1] Chemicals and Energy - **Carbonate Lithium (LC2509)**: Spot price 73900, futures price 73120, basis 780, basis rate 1.07%, historical quantile 62.77%, reference: SMM Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium Average Price [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price 9950, futures price 8915, basis 1035, basis rate 11.61%, reference: SMM Annual Flux 215530 Average Price [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price 4800.0, futures price 4812.0, basis -12.0, basis rate -0.29%, historical quantile 47.10%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA): East China Region [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price 4500.0, futures price 4436.0, basis 64.0, basis rate 1.44%, historical quantile 83.00%, reference: Market Price (Middle Price): Ethylene Glycol (MEG): East China Region [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF509)**: Spot price 6610.0, futures price 6482.0, basis 128.0, basis rate 1.97%, historical quantile 73.60%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyester Staple Fiber (1.4D*38mm (Direct Spinning)): East China Market [1] - **Styrene (EB2509)**: Spot price 7370.0, futures price 7358.0, basis 12.0, basis rate 0.16%, historical quantile 28.90%, reference: China: East China: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Styrene [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price 7340.0, futures price 7335.0, basis 5.0, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 21.10%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Linear Low - Density Polyethylene LLDPE (Film Grade): Shandong [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price 7165.0, futures price 7130.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.49%, historical quantile 31.40%, reference: Duty - Paid Self - Pick - up Price (Middle Price): Polypropylene PP (Drawing Grade, Melt Index 2 - 4): Zhejiang [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2593.0, basis 0.8, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 48.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price) Caustic Soda (32% Ion - Membrane Caustic Soda): Shandong Market: Converted to 100% [1] - **LPG (PG2509)**: Spot price 4448.0, futures price 3992.0, basis 456.0, basis rate 11.42%, historical quantile 62.90%, reference: Market Price: Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Guangzhou Region [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price 3775.0, futures price 3569.0, basis 206.0, basis rate 5.77%, historical quantile 82.70%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Asphalt (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt): Shandong Region [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: No data provided [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price 1200.0, futures price 1223.0, basis -23.0, basis rate -1.98%, historical quantile 57.77%, reference: Float Glass: 5mm: Large Plate: Market Price: Shahe: Shahe Great Wall Glass (Daily) [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price 1320.0, futures price 1316.0, basis 4.0, basis rate 0.30%, historical quantile 33.61%, reference: Soda Ash: Heavy - Duty: Market Price: Shahe (Daily) [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price 1780.0, futures price 1738.0, basis 42.0, basis rate 2.42%, historical quantile 24.00%, reference: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Urea (Small Granules): Shandong Region [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price 2392.5, futures price 2404.0, basis -11.5, basis rate -0.48%, historical quantile 27.30%, reference: China: Jiangsu Taicang: Market Price (Spot Benchmark Price): Methanol [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price 5100.0, futures price 5149.0, basis -49.0, basis rate -0.99%, historical quantile 67.80%, reference: China: Changzhou Market: Market Price (Mainstream Price): Polyvinyl Chloride (SG - 5) [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR9000)**: Spot price 12100.0, futures price 11955.0, basis 145.0, basis rate 1.21%, historical quantile 44.10%, reference: China: Distribution Price: Butadiene Rubber (Daqing, BR9000): PetroChina East China [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price 15100.0, futures price 15065.0, basis 35.0, basis rate 0.23%, historical quantile 96.87%, reference: Shanghai Market Price: Natural Rubber (Yunnan State - Owned Full - Latex) [1] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price 2540, futures price 2660.0, basis -120.0, historical quantile 15.90%, reference: Guangdong Zhanjiang Factory Price: Common Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price 9490, futures price 9406.0, basis 84.0, basis rate 0.89%, historical quantile 36.50%, reference: Jiangsu: Nantong: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price 2350, futures price 2319.0, basis 31.0, basis rate 1.34%, historical quantile 63.30%, reference: FOB Price: Corn: Xizhou Port [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Some data missing, reference: Jilin: Changchun: Factory Price: Corn Starch [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price 14080, futures price 14125.0, basis -45.0, basis rate -0.32%, historical quantile 41.30%, reference: Henan Factory Price: Live Hogs (External Ternary) [1] - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price 3040, futures price 3576.0, basis -536.0, basis rate -14.99%, historical quantile 5.90%, reference: Hebei: Shijiazhuang: Average Price: Eggs [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price 15473, futures price 14075.0, basis 1398.0, basis rate 9.93%, reference: Xinjiang: Factory - Arrival Price: Cotton: 3128B [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price 8600, futures price 8052.0, basis 548.0, basis rate 6.81%, historical quantile 43.40%, reference: Apples: Delivery Theoretical Price (Daily/Steel Union) [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Spot price 8300, futures price 10695.0, basis -2395.0, basis rate -22.39%, historical quantile 6.50%, reference: Grey Jujubes: First - Grade: Wholesale Price: Hebei (Steel Union) [1] - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price 2860, futures price 2990.0, basis -130.0, basis rate -4.35%, historical quantile 15.30%, reference: Jiangsu·Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Common Protein Soybean Meal [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price 8180, futures price 8120.0, basis 60.0, basis rate 0.74%, historical quantile 4.30%, reference: Jiangsu: Zhangjiagang: Factory Price: Fourth - Grade Soybean Oil [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price 8940, futures price 8946.0, basis -6.0, basis rate -0.07%, historical quantile 15.20%, reference: Delivery Price: Palm Oil: Huangpu Port [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price 6120, futures price 5845.0, basis 275.0, basis rate 4.70%, historical quantile 53.80%, reference: Spot Price: White Sugar: Liuzhou Platform [1] - **Paraxylene (PX509)**: Spot price 7018.2, futures price 6890.0, basis 128.2, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 61.40%, reference: China Main Port: Spot Price (CFR): Paraxylene: Converted to RMB [1] Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: Spot price 4135.8, futures price 4122.0, basis -13.8, basis rate -0.34%, historical quantile 30.10% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: Some data missing [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price 6730.0, futures price 6602.0, basis -128.0, basis rate -1.94%, historical quantile 9.60% [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: Spot price 100.27, futures price 102.36, basis 0.00, historical quantile 25.50%, conversion factor 0.9796 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: Spot price 100.79, futures price 108.40, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 20.80%, conversion factor provided [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: Spot price 100.71, futures price 105.72, basis 0.04, basis rate 0.04%, historical quantile 32.50%, conversion factor 0.9522 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: Spot price 134.26, futures price 118.80, basis 0.26, basis rate 0.22%, historical quantile 35.20%, conversion factor 1.12