| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年5月7日 | | | | Z0016628 | | 最新值 | 价差 | 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | 12.03 | | F期现价差 -42.34 | | 7.70% | 6.20% | | H期现价差 | 期现价差 | -18.12 | 5.84 | 13.90% | 9.90% | | -118.33 | | IC期现价差 | 16.49 | 3.60% | 1.80% | | IM期现价差 | | -149.72 | -1.01 | 75.00% | 4.00% | | 次月-当月 | | -31.40 | 4.40 | 4.90% | 11.10% | | 季月-当月 | | -89.00 | -0.20 | 1.60% | 8.80% | | 远月-当月 | | -115.80 | -1.60 | 1.20% | 14.10% | | ...

色書高明 中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同 分析方法，并不代表厂发期货或具制累机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，设告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或问 者福比较多,风险自相,本报告宣在发治广发期货特信客户及其他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未给广发期货所有,未给广发期货书面将 任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共矿 然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14500 | 200 | 1.38% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -115 | -રેર | -60 | -109.09% ...

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月7日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 261200 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 800 | 100 | 12.50% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 261700 | -1000 | -0.38% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -228.98 | -205.00 | -23.98 | -11.70% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6721.57 | -9899.07 | 3177.50 | 32.10% | 元/吨 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The State Council Information Office announced multiple measures to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and promote consumption, which will be implemented in the second quarter. The White House showed an intention to ease tariffs, and China and the US will conduct foreign trade negotiations. The stock index had a positive start after the holiday, and the index has stable support below [2]. - Considering possible loose monetary measures in the future, the capital market is expected to loosen. The inflation and credit data for April to be released may be weak, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate strongly [2]. - Gold prices fluctuate in the short - term. Silver faces resistance at previous highs and trades in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. - The shipping quotes during the holiday decreased, and the container shipping index continued to fluctuate [2]. - Steel mill production has peaked, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. Iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations [2]. - The settlement electricity price in the silicon - related product production areas has decreased, and the prices are running weakly [2]. - The supply - side of crude oil is gradually recovering, and the market still needs to focus on macro and geopolitical impacts [2]. - The supply and demand of various chemical products have different driving forces, and the prices show different trends [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as external markets, supply, and demand, showing different trends [2]. - The prices of special and new energy products are also affected by various factors, such as supply - demand and market news [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After the holiday, the index generally rose. With stable support below, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums. In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately layout long positions on dips. In the futures - spot strategy, one can focus on the positive arbitrage strategy of T, TF, and TS contracts [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Considering possible loose monetary measures and the possible weak inflation and credit data in April, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate strongly. Unilateral strategy: buy on dips; futures - spot strategy: focus on positive arbitrage of T, TF, and TS contracts [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate in the short - term. One should be cautious in unilateral operations or sell relatively out - of - the - money call options at high prices after market expectations stabilize. Silver faces resistance at previous highs and trades in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - **Steel**: Mill production has peaked, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. One can focus on the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production remains high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. It is in a range - bound state, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, the supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but the second - round price increase was blocked, and the futures price increase expectation was broken. One can go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again. Although coal mine production has slightly increased, the high inventory still has the possibility of decline, and the futures hedging pressure is still large. One can go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: It has a strong real - world fundamental situation, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main contract should focus on the resistance level of 77500 - 78500 [2]. - **Zinc**: The smelter maintenance has boosted the price, but the terminal downstream performance has weakened. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. - **Tin**: Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. - **Silicon - related Products**: The settlement electricity price in the production areas has decreased, and the prices are running weakly. The lower support for silicon iron is around 5300, and for silicon metal, it is around 5400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The supply - side is gradually recovering, and the market still needs to focus on macro and geopolitical impacts. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [60, 70], and SC in [450, 510]. Unilateral strategy: short - term long; pay attention to macro and geopolitical impacts [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and the price is supported at a low valuation. It fluctuates in the range of 6000 - 6400 in the short - term. The upward space of the PX9 - 1 spread is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts. One can mainly expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand driving force is strong, and the price support is strong. It fluctuates in the range of 4200 - 4500 in the short - term. TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive arbitrage situation and a medium - term reverse arbitrage situation. PTA is a long - position allocation in the industrial chain [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, corn, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, jujubes, peanuts, and soda ash are affected by factors such as external markets, supply, and demand, showing different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions are given [2]. Special and New Energy - Special products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, as well as new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, are affected by factors such as supply - demand, market news, and production delays, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月2日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 789.5 | 788.5 | 1.0 | 0.13% | | | 原木2509 | 801.0 | 804.0 | -3.0 | -0.37% | | | 原木2511 | 806.0 | 807.5 | -1.5 | -0.19% | | | 7-9价差 | -11.5 | -15.5 | 4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -1.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -16.5 | -19.0 | 2.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -19.5 | -18.5 | -1.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -31.0 | -34.0 | 3.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -36.0 | -37.5 | 1.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...

数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 免责声明 | 5398 | 7.97% | 94.90% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF506) | 5828 | 430 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5920 | 6.47% | 72.20% | 360 | 5560 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3210 | 3077 | 133 | 4.32% | 59.60% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 44 | 38.00% | 3240 | 1.38% | 3196 | 热卷 (HC2510) | | | | | | d3 | 13.21% | 铁矿石 (12509) | 798 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including market conditions, news, and policy impacts. It provides operation suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations for each product. For example, in the stock index futures market, it suggests selling out - of - the - money put options or going long on the June IM contract; in the gold market, it believes that gold has upward potential in the medium - to - long - term but may face short - term fluctuations [2][5][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market showed a general upward trend. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, but all had a basis discount. With the upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic stability measures, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Futures**: The capital interest rate declined marginally, and the treasury futures showed mixed performance. Considering possible loose monetary policies and weak inflation and credit data in April, it is recommended to go long on treasury futures on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of T, TF, and TS contracts [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose significantly due to trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and the decline of the US dollar index. Gold is expected to reach $3500 per ounce this year, but it may face short - term fluctuations. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate between $32 - $33.5. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10][12]. Container Shipping Index - The spot prices of container shipping continued to decline during the May Day holiday. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was in a certain state. It is recommended to wait for the shipping company's price quotes and consider widening the spread between the August and June contracts [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper increased slightly. The macro - level tariff pressure was slightly relieved, and the supply of raw materials was tight while the demand was resilient. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 77500 - 78500 [14][15][20]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreased slightly. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by smelter maintenance. The demand from primary processing industries weakened. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is expected to be gradually repaired, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices and pay attention to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [24][25][26]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The macro - level tariff issue was temporarily stable, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract reference range is 122000 - 128000 [26][27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was basically stable. The cost was supported by the ore end, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure. The demand was slowly recovering, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13000 [30][31][32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased. The supply pressure was still high, the demand was lackluster, and the inventory was high. The lithium - carbonate price is expected to run weakly, and the main contract reference range is 65000 - 70000 [34][35][37]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore increased slightly. The iron - water output remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron - ore price is expected to be under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 704.5 [40][41]. - **Coke**: The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round was blocked. The supply and demand situation improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction [42][43][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was weak, and the futures hedging pressure was large. The supply was high, and the demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction [45][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of silicon iron decreased due to the reduction of settlement electricity prices in production areas. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand was stable. The silicon - iron price is expected to run weakly [48][49][50]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price of silicon manganese continued to decline due to the reduction of settlement electricity prices in production areas. The supply was in a state of reduction, and the demand was stable. The silicon - manganese price is expected to fluctuate weakly [51][52][54]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of domestic soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal increased slightly. The price of US soybeans followed the decline of US soybean oil. The supply pressure from Brazil continued, and the domestic supply was expected to recover. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 2900 [55][56]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs was stable. It is expected that the secondary - fattened pigs will be slaughtered in May, which will put pressure on the price. The live - pig price is expected to remain volatile [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn increased. The supply was tight, and the price was supported by the strong willingness of farmers to hold back sales. The downstream demand was limited, and the port inventory needed to be digested. The corn price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [59][60]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price remained volatile at a high level. The supply concerns were relieved, and the domestic supply - demand situation was expected to be loose. The sugar price is expected to be volatile and weak after the holiday [61].

目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 2025 年 5 月 7 日星期三广 发期货早评 2,596.0 -305.0 2,680.0 6,886.0 2,315.0 -12.0 6,480.0 8,623.0 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 [股指期货] 数据来源：Wind 广发期货研究所整理 | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...