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《能源化工》日报-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is currently trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in until the Iranian gas restriction [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply recovery has slowed due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Demand has improved, but there is still pressure as supply is expected to increase while demand may decrease. The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda & PVC) - In November, the caustic soda market faces supply - demand pressure, with prices expected to be weak and stable. PVC's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with prices likely to continue weak and volatile, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with weak price drivers. Short - term trading of BZ2603 should focus on short - selling on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to change little. The supply - demand situation is currently loose, and prices are expected to have limited drivers. EB12 should be short - sold on rebounds [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but its price rebound is limited. PTA supply - demand is slightly loose, and its price rebound is under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price faces upward pressure. Short - fiber prices are gradually under pressure, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31st, MA2601 closed at 2180, down 28 (-1.27%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2260, down 24 (-1.05%); the MA15 spread was -80, down 4 (5.26%); the Taicang basis was -50, down 5 (11.11%); spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all declined [1]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 1.57 (4.36%) to 37.606%; port inventories decreased by 0.57 (-0.38%) to 150.6 million tons; social inventories increased by 1.00 (0.53%) to 188.3% [2]. - **开工率**: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.07 (-0.09%) to 75.78%; overseas upstream开工率 decreased by 2.68 (-3.65%) to 70.7%; downstream MTO装置开工率 increased by 5.96 (7.63%) to 84.06% [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, L2601 closed at 6888, down 11 (-0.16%); PP2601 closed at 6576, down 14 (-0.21%); some spot and futures prices and spreads changed [8]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventories decreased by 9.86 (-19.16%) to 41.6; social inventories decreased by 1.80 (-3.30%) to 52.7 million tons; PP enterprise inventories decreased by 4.34 (-6.80%) to 59.5 million tons; trader inventories decreased by 2.50 (-10.48%) to 21.4 [8]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.59 (-0.73%) to 60.9; downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.38 (-0.83%) to 45.4; PP装置开工率 increased by 1.13 (1.5%) to 77.1; downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.24 (0.5%) to 52.6 [8]. Chlor - alkali - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500; the price of East China PVC decreased, and some futures prices and spreads changed [9]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 2.8 (3.3%) to 88.3; PVC总开工率 increased by 3.4 (4.5%) to 77.1 [9]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some caustic soda downstream industries changed slightly, and the开工率 of PVC downstream products increased [9]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda inventories in East China and Shandong increased, PVC upstream factory inventories increased slightly, and total social inventories decreased by 1.0 (-1.8%) to 54.5 [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.89, down $0.18 (-0.3%); CFR China pure benzene was at $681, up $4 (0.6%); some pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price was 6440, down 30 (-0.5%); EB12 - EB01 was -49, down 8 (-19.5%); some other prices and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased by 3.60 (42.4%) to 12.10 million tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 1.37 (-7.1%) to 17.93 million tons [10]. - **开工率**: Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.4% (-0.5%) to 78.8%; domestic pure benzene开工率 increased by 1.4% (1.9%) to 74.1%; styrene开工率 decreased by 2.5% (-3.7%) to 66.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (January) was at $64.89, up $0.12 (0.2%); CFR China PX was at $820, unchanged; some other upstream prices changed [11]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6515, up 100 (1.6%); POY150/48 cash flow was 37, up 91; some other downstream product prices and cash flows changed [11]. - **Inventories**: MEG port inventories increased by 3.9 (7.5%) to 56.2 million tons; MEG to - port expectations decreased by 0.9 (-4.5%) to 18 [11]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.4% to 78.1%; China PX开工率 increased by 1.1% to 87.0%; PTA开工率 decreased by 0.8% to 78.0% [11].
全品种价差日报-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 03:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest market data of various futures and spot commodities on November 4, 2025, including prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of different varieties such as ferrosilicon, manganese - silicon, steel, iron ore, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as the basis data of stock index futures and bond futures [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon - related Products**: 72 - grade ferrosilicon qualified block in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt has a spot price of 5526, a futures price of 5628, a basis rate of 2.17%, and a historical quantile of 69.20%; 6517 ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt has a spot price of 5794, and the historical quantile is 48.80% [1]. - **Steel Products**: HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai has a spot price of 3079, a futures price of 3220, a basis rate of 4.58%, and a historical quantile of 61.00%; Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai has a spot price of 3310, and the historical quantile is 23.70% [1]. - **Ore and Coke**: The 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) of Vale at Rizhao Port has a spot price of 1772, a futures price of 1721, a basis rate of - 2.82%, and a historical quantile of 51.20%; the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port has a historical quantile of 38.95%; the S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi has a spot price of 1385, a futures price of 1285, a basis rate of 7.82%, and a historical quantile of 52.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The SMM electrolytic copper average price is 87300, the futures price is 86840, the basis is - 460, the basis rate is - 0.53%, and the historical quantile is 13.75% [1]. - **Aluminum**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21440, the futures price is 21600, the basis is - 160, the basis rate is - 0.74%, and the historical quantile is 9.58% [1]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have corresponding spot and futures price data and basis information [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold spot AU (T + D) has a price of 922.6, the futures price is 920.2, the basis is - 2.4, the basis rate is - 0.25%, and the historical quantile is 34.30% [1]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver spot AG (T + D) has a price of 11455.0, the futures price is 11442.0, the basis is - 13.0, and the historical quantile is 64.00% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Soybean meal has a spot price of 3010, a futures price of 3026.0, a basis of - 16.0, a basis rate of - 0.53%, and a historical quantile of 33.90%; soybean oil has a spot price of 8270, a futures price of 8110.0, a basis of 160.0, and a historical quantile of 34.30%; palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, etc. also have corresponding data [1]. - **Grains and Livestock**: Corn, corn starch, live pigs, eggs, cotton, sugar, apples, and jujubes have their respective spot and futures price data, basis, and historical quantiles [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Aromatics and Polyester Raw Materials**: Para - xylene (PX) has a spot price of 6640.0, a futures price of 6723.0, a basis of 83.0, a basis rate of - 1.61%, and a historical quantile of 12.10%; PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. also have relevant data [1]. - **Plastics and Rubber**: LLDPE, PP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, asphalt, butadiene rubber, glass, soda ash, and natural rubber have corresponding spot and futures price data, basis, and historical quantiles [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2512.CFE has a spot price of 4634.8, a futures price of 4653.4, a basis of - 18.6, a basis rate of - 0.40%, and a historical quantile of 57.90%; IH2512.CFE, IC2512.CFE, and IM2512.CFE also have relevant data [1]. - **Bond Futures**: 2 - year bond (TS2512), 5 - year bond (TF2512), 10 - year bond (T2512), and 30 - year bond (TL2512) have corresponding basis data and historical quantiles [1].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:51
Report Overview - Date: November 4, 2025 [4][6][12][17][25] - Source: GF Futures Research Institute [1] - Contact: Ye Qianning, Tel: 020 - 88818051, Email: yeqianning@gf.com.cn [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. The total positions of IF and IH decreased slightly, IC remained stable, and IM increased slightly. The top 20 seats had mixed changes in positions for IF and IH, while for IC, CITIC increased long positions by over 1000 lots, and for IM, Zhongtai increased both long and short positions by over 1000 lots [1]. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300) - **Total Positions and Main Contract Positions**: On November 3, the total positions of the IF variety decreased by 1034 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2684 lots [6]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 39049 lots. Yide Futures had the most long - position increase (1626 lots), and CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position decrease (1006 lots) [7]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 44731 lots. Guotou Futures had the most short - position increase (635 lots), and CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most short - position decrease (781 lots) [9]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Positions and Main Contract Positions**: On November 3, the total positions of the IH variety decreased by 2629 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2422 lots [12]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 12621 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (343 lots), and Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease (706 lots) [12]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 15049 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase (868 lots), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease (945 lots) [13]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Positions and Main Contract Positions**: On November 3, the total positions of the IC variety decreased by 5746 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2520 lots [19]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 37755 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (1656 lots), and Haitong Futures had the most long - position decrease (590 lots) [20]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 42722 lots. Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position increase (575 lots), and Everbright Futures had the most short - position decrease (422 lots) [22]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Positions and Main Contract Positions**: On November 3, the total positions of the IM variety increased by 556 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1656 lots [25]. - **Top 20 Long Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total of 52586 lots. Zhongtai Futures had the most long - position increase (1400 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease (714 lots) [25]. - **Top 20 Short Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total of 73192 lots. Zhongtai Futures had the most short - position increase (1081 lots), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (439 lots) [27].
广发期货日评-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:35
Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Outlook - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment has improved slightly, with different sectors showing various trends. The stock index market is in a shrinking and volatile state, the bond market interest rate is expected to decline, and the precious metal market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. Commodity markets such as black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products also have their own characteristics and trends [2] Group 3: Sector - by - Sector Summaries Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is volatile after a short - term high, with the cyclical sectors outperforming. It is recommended to try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond interest rate is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to trade between $3995 - $4070 (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to trade within the range or sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices. Silver is in a range of $47 - $50 (11000 - 11700 yuan) [2] Commodity Sector Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: It is in short - term shock, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand is rising, and inventory pressure is relieved. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to go short on rallies for the January 2026 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2026 contract and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the support level of 86000 - 86500 [2] - **Alumina**: The main contract is expected to run in the range of 2750 - 2900 [2] - **Aluminum**: The price has broken through recent highs, and short - term corrections should be watched out for. The main reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2] - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating strongly, with a reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2] - **Tin**: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Nickel**: The main reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 12500 - 13000 [2] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [2] - **PTA**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and conduct 1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2] - **Short - Fiber**: The rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [2] - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethanol (MEG)**: The upward drive is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on rallies [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is under pressure, and a bearish view is recommended [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is not improved, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - **Benzene**: It is recommended to be bearish on rallies following the oil price [2] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound of the December contract [2] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is poor. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [2] - **PP**: The trading is light, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Methanol**: Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 3 - 5 spread [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China has started to purchase US soybeans, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the January 2026 contract [2] - **Pig**: The supply - demand is loose, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Corn**: The supply has decreased, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2] - **Oil**: The fundamentals are bearish, and the Y main contract may test the support of 8000 yuan [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is loose, and the domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, oscillating at the bottom around 5450 - 5550 [2] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, oscillating in the range of 13500 - 13800 [2] - **Egg**: It is short - term strong but long - term bearish. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage and short - selling opportunities [2] - **Apple**: The price of ground fruits in Shandong has declined, and attention should be paid to the support of 9000 yuan [2] - **Jujube**: The jujubes are concentrated on the ground, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the support of 10000 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The surplus pattern continues, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The change of production lines in Shahe has affected the market. Attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales to capture short - term long opportunities [2] - **Rubber**: The inventory of dark - colored rubber has reached an inflection point, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: The operating rate has decreased, and the price may be strong after oscillating [2] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of platform company implementation. The price may be strong after oscillating [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan [2]
广发早知道:汇总版-20251104
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market showed a shrinking - volume rebound on Monday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts had narrow - range fluctuations, and the basis of the main contracts was adjusted. Domestic policy is expected to support the PMI index, while overseas, there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. Different futures varieties have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and news[3][4][5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures 3.1.1. Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, A - share major indices opened lower and closed higher with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. Pro - cyclical sectors such as forestry, oil and gas, and coal performed well, while industrial sectors such as precious metals, basic metals, and automobiles declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all had narrow - range fluctuations, with IF2512 and IH2512 down 0.04% and 0.00% respectively, IC2512 down 0.34%, and IM2512 up 0.01%. The basis of the four major contracts was adjusted[3][4]. - **News**: China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary suggested interest rate cuts if inflation drops. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 63%[4][5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Try to sell out - of - the - money put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread with put options to capture the subsequent upside space[5]. 3.1.2. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed mostly lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.03%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were mixed[6]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, with a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were loose, and short - term interest rates are expected to remain low[6][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: In November, the bond market may enter a waiting stage. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities due to the rise of IRR[7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected. The US government shutdown has affected the economy, and the gold tax policy has led to price adjustments by some enterprises. The precious metals market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range[8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the precious metals market will enter an oscillation stage with falling volatility. The international gold price may operate in the range of 3995 - 4070 US dollars (910 - 935 yuan), and it is recommended to conduct volatility operations or sell out - of - the - money gold put options at high prices. Silver prices will oscillate in the range of 47 - 50 US dollars (11000 - 11700 yuan)[9][11]. - **Funding**: The recent rise and fall of gold and silver prices have led to an outflow of ETF funds, and investors' short - term attitudes tend to be cautious[11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - Europe basic ports in the next 6 weeks varied among different shipping companies[12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% month - on - month; the US - West route index was 1267.15 points, up 14.43% month - on - month. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index was 1550.7 points, up 10% month - on - month[12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33.35 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7[12]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips[13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1. Copper - **Spot**: As of November 3, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86840 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement volume increased slightly as copper prices declined[13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The US - China economic and trade consultation reached a consensus, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case[14]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC was at a low level. In October, the SMM Chinese electrolytic copper output decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decrease by 0.4 million tons in November[14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released when prices fall[15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased[16]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: After the positive expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, the short - term driving force is weak. The main contract should focus on the support level of 86000 - 86500 yuan/ton, and the short - term view is oscillation[17]. 3.4.2. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with a general loosening of prices due to a gradually loose supply pattern and stable demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry[17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, but the situation may improve[18]. - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants all increased in October, and the total registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts also increased[18]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The alumina price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite and other factors[19][20]. 3.4.3. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day[20]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and it is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots will continue to increase slightly in October[20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries entered the traditional peak season, but the weekly start - up rate of processing products declined[20]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased[21]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory changes and LME de - stocking intensity[22]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 spot average price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day[23]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will remain flat in October[23]. - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission was not smooth, and high prices inhibited downstream procurement[23][24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories increased slightly, and the total registered volume of casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased[24]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the long AD01 and short AL01 arbitrage when the spread is above 550[25]. 3.4.5. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand[25]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore processing fee decreased, and the smelting profit was compressed, which limited the subsequent output increase. The supply of the zinc industry chain has changed from loose to tight[26]. - **Demand**: The demand did not exceed expectations, with domestic demand stronger than overseas. The inventory of the three primary processing industries showed a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in finished - product inventory[27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories and LME inventories both decreased[27]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton[28]. 3.4.6. Tin - **Spot**: On November 3, the SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading was light[28]. - **Supply**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month, and the tin ingot import volume returned to normal. The tin ingot export volume increased[29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder start - up rate increased slightly, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields was weak. LME inventories decreased, while social inventories decreased slightly[31]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The tin price is expected to oscillate widely. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter[32]. 3.4.7. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel average price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day[32]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production was at a high level, and the monthly production was expected to continue to increase slightly[33]. - **Demand**: The demand from electroplating and stainless steel was general, while the demand from alloys was relatively good. The demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term[33]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories increased[33]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies[34][35]. 3.4.8. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased, and the basis decreased[35]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, while the nickel - iron price decreased, and the cost support of raw materials declined[35]. - **Supply**: In September and October, domestic stainless steel production increased[36]. - **Inventory**: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased[36]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply[37][38]. 3.4.9. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 3, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market spot circulation was tight, but most downstream enterprises still chose to wait and see[38]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, but the weekly production decreased slightly recently, mainly due to the decline in lithium - spodumene - extracted lithium carbonate production[39]. - **Demand**: The demand was generally optimistic, with an expected increase in the production of lithium - iron and ternary materials. Pay attention to the marginal change in downstream orders after November[39]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in all links last week[40]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton[41][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals 3.5.1. Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was weak, with the rebar basis strengthening and the hot - rolled coil basis weakening[42]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil[42]. - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron - element output increased by 5% year - on - year. In October, the increase narrowed. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the molten iron output decreased, but the five - major steel products output increased slightly[42]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation was still weak, while the export remained at a high level. The apparent demand of the five - major steel products increased, and the inventory pressure was relieved[42][43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five - major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will continue to decline month - on - month[43]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils. Consider holding the long - coking - coal and short - hot - rolled - coil arbitrage[44][45]. 3.5.2. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 3, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or decreased[46]. - **Futures**: As of November 3, the iron ore futures prices decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened[46]. - **Basis**: The best - delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated[46]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the daily molten iron output, blast - furnace operating rate, and other indicators decreased, and the steel - mill profitability declined[46]. - **Supply**: As of November 3, the global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly[47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the port inventory increased, the daily port - clearing volume increased, and the steel - mill iron - ore inventory decreased[47]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The iron ore price is expected to be weak. Consider shorting the 2601 contract on rallies, with the reference range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage[48]. 3.5.3. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 3, the coking coal futures prices oscillated and declined, while the spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia were strong[49]. - **Supply**: As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in Fenwei increased slightly, while that in Ganglian decreased slightly. The coal inventories in mines decreased[49][50][51]. - **Demand**: As of October 30, the coke production of coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the molten iron output decreased[51]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly, with mines, ports, and washing plants de - stocking, and coking plants and steel mills increasing inventory[52]. - **Viewpoint and Suggestions**: The coking - coal price is expected to
点评报告:国家黄金税收政策变化解读
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 14:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new gold tax policy aims to address tax regulatory pressures in the current "gold - buying boom" by implementing refined tax management and distinguishing between "investment" and "non - investment" uses of gold, plugging "tax arbitrage" loopholes [4]. - The policy may lead to increased costs for non - exchange physical gold transactions, potentially causing investment demand to shift to virtual trading markets and affecting the scale of the spot market [4]. - Due to the lack of implementation details, market participants are in a wait - and - see state, and short - term trading volume may be affected [4]. - In the long run, global macro - economic, fiscal and monetary policies, and geopolitical events are the core factors affecting gold prices, but the new policy may dampen market enthusiasm in the short term [5]. - The new policy can enhance the international competitiveness of China's gold market and contribute to the internationalization of the RMB [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Policy Core - For gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, when the seller sells standard gold, VAT is exempted. For physical delivery, different VAT policies apply based on the use of the gold [1]. - For investment - use standard gold purchased by member units, the exchange implements VAT immediate refund, exempts urban maintenance and construction tax and education surcharges, and issues VAT special invoices. The buying member unit pays VAT when reselling and can only issue ordinary invoices [1]. - For non - investment - use standard gold purchased by member units, the exchange exempts VAT and issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying member units can calculate input tax at a 6% deduction rate and can issue VAT special invoices when reselling [2]. - For standard gold purchased by customers, the exchange exempts VAT and issues ordinary invoices. General VAT - paying customers can calculate input tax at a 6% deduction rate and can issue VAT special invoices when reselling [2]. Specific Policy Changes - Investment gold is not tax - exempt when sold to individual investors, and downstream cannot obtain special invoices for deduction. Non - investment gold can have 6% of its VAT deducted in the processing link and is sold at a VAT - included price in the retail link [3]. - Member units or customers need to clearly indicate the type of gold use on invoices. If the use of gold changes, member units should report to the exchange within 6 months and can only apply for a change once [3]. Impact on the Market - The policy helps plug tax loopholes, forcing enterprises to choose between "investment gold" and "consumer goods" tracks and refine their financial and tax management [4]. - Non - exchange physical gold transactions may face cost increases, leading to a potential shift of investment demand to virtual trading markets. Non - investment gold products still face at least 7% VAT cost [4]. - Due to the lack of implementation details, short - term trading volume may be affected as market participants are in a wait - and - see state [4]. - The new policy may dampen short - term market enthusiasm during a gold bull market, but in the long run, macro - factors are the core determinants of gold prices [5]. - The policy can enhance the international competitiveness of China's gold market and contribute to RMB internationalization [5].
氯碱周报:SH:下游压力传导压制烧碱价格,供应端增量价格缺乏支撑,V:11月供需过剩格局持续,价格难言乐观-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November, the caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. With fewer maintenance enterprises, the supply is expected to increase. The price is weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish. For PVC, from November to December, the supply pressure will continue due to new production capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern [2][3]. - Futures trading for both caustic soda and PVC should adopt a bearish approach, and options trading should be on the sidelines [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost shifts. The spot price has also been affected by factors like downstream demand and inventory. In November, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2][8]. - **Supply**: In October, the industry's operation was at a high - level with fluctuations, and the inventory of caustic soda plants first decreased and then increased. The national average weekly weighted operating load rate was 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity was 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week [21][27]. - **Demand**: The main downstream, alumina, has a weakening demand for caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new alumina production capacity is 1230 tons, which is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year [32]. - **Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. In October, the estimated export profit declined [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In October, the PVC spot price decline accelerated. The core contradiction is that the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved. The futures price has also been affected by factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [63][64]. - **Supply**: In October, there were 20 PVC maintenance enterprises, 3 fewer than in September. The utilization rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC production capacity was 78.10%, a 0.49 - percentage - point decrease from September. The utilization rate of ethylene - based PVC production capacity was 81.48%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from September [79][85]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [94]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has been continuously increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [102]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 1.44 tons, with a single - month import increase of 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The export volume was 34.64 tons, with a single - month export increase of 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year [120].
《农产品》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 09:34
1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].
《金融》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 09:19
Report Summary of Futures Market Data 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports present a comprehensive set of data on various futures markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. These data cover price differences, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventories, and other relevant indicators, providing investors with a basis for analyzing market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports detail the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as across different contract months for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference is -9.27, and the H period - spot price difference is 3.65 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Each price difference is accompanied by its historical percentile over the past year and the entire futures - listing period, helping investors understand the relative position of the current price difference [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, IC/IF, and others are provided, with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis for different bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) is given, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, including their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: The reports include domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of gold and silver. For instance, the AU2512 contract closed at 921.92 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4077.20 dollars [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges are provided [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai export container freight indexes (SCFI) are given, showing their growth rates [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2512, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are reported, along with their changes [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Information on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - punctuality rate, berthing situation), monthly export balance, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, etc.) is provided [4].
《有色》日报-20251103
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 07:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].