1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the A - share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy window period, with trading volume remaining low and stock indices continuing to fluctuate. The continuous shutdown risk of the US government increases the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impacts the domestic equity market, but the intraday trend may be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the progress will be gradual. New driving factors such as the further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals will be the key to driving the market up. The investment view is to choose the opportunity to go long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact on Stock Indices** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October, affected by tariff policies, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative for the first time since February 2025. Exports to non - ASEAN economies were generally poor, and labor - intensive products and some mechanical and electrical products saw significant declines. The "14th Five - Year Plan" has been implemented, and the domestic policy is in a relatively quiet period, with a negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed seven major economic development goals and twelve major deployments for the next five years, with a neutral - to - positive impact on stock indices [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The continuous shutdown of the US government has led to a decline in US stocks from their highs, which has a certain impact on China's technology sector, with a neutral - to - negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased compared with the previous week. The current macro - level is in a policy window period, and the A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with a neutral impact on stock indices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Choose the opportunity to go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8; the Shanghai 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9 [5]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: The weekly returns of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the corresponding indices were 0.57%, 0.68%, - 0.30%, and 0.37% respectively [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), pharmaceutical biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 futures decreased by 9.37%, and the open interest decreased by 5.03% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 7, different contracts of stock index futures showed different premium or discount rates. For example, the IF2511 contract had an annualized discount of 6.46%, and the IH2511 contract had an annualized premium of 0.78% [13]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50, and between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at different historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan. Next week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [24]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: As of November 6, the margin trading and short - selling balance of A - shares was 24908.9 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.5% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. - **Market Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 2605.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. - **Risk Premium Rate**: As of November 7, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5.19, at the 47.8% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, and the manufacturing PMI decreased. Various economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [33][42]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in indicators such as housing prices, transaction volumes, and investment [35]. - **Consumption**: Different consumer goods showed different growth rates in sales. For example, the sales of some categories such as sports and entertainment products and jewelry showed relatively high growth, while the sales of petroleum products and building materials showed negative growth [38]. - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing industry's PMI and its sub - indicators showed a decline in October, and different manufacturing sub - industries had different performance in production, orders, and prices [39][42]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment showed different trends in different sub - sectors, with some sectors showing growth and some showing decline [40]. - **Earnings of Major Broad - Based Indices and Industries**: Different broad - based indices and industries had different performance in net profit growth and return on equity [47][48]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance. For example, policies have been introduced to promote service consumption, optimize real estate purchase restrictions, and provide fiscal subsidies for consumer loans [52][53][54]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index increased, and the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls showed different trends [62]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates decreased, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates increased slightly [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [68].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of logs is bearish, with an increase in the number of departing vessels and shipping volume from New Zealand in October 2025. The demand, inventory, and valuation are neutral. After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. - The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Demand**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase [4][32]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: After the expectation of rising sea freight failed, the log price dropped significantly, and the drivers in the fourth quarter are bearish. Considering the current low valuation, shorting after a pullback can be considered [4]. 2. Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: The near - month log contracts dropped significantly, while the far - month contracts were stable. The far - month contracts have limited further downside space after the sharp drop, and the near - month contracts continued to decline due to the large delivery pressure of domestic timber. Currently, the log spot is weak, and shorting after a rebound can be considered [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices showed that the spot was weak, and shorting after a rebound was considered [7]. - **Futures Positions**: As of November 7, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,242 lots, a 13.9% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,027 lots, a 14.9% increase from the previous week [11]. 3. Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase and a 7.37% year - on - year decrease. From January to September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, an 8.14% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, China imported about 1.4993 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 14.79% month - on - month increase and a 4.08% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, China imported about 13.502 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 0.74% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Shipping Volume from New Zealand**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log vessels left the port, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month. The total shipping volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipping volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75% and a 2% increase from September [4][24]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.41% week - on - week increase; the radiation pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 1.72% week - on - week increase; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a 9.09% week - on - week decrease; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of October 31st, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.883 million cubic meters, a 0.97% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 822,594 cubic meters, a 4.54% increase from the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Downstream**: As of November 7, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/cubic meter, a 20 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week decrease; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 3.8 yuan/cubic meter, a 15 - yuan/cubic - meter week - on - week increase; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Copper**: Due to high prices suppressing downstream demand and a decline in market risk appetite, copper prices are under pressure but the downside is expected to be limited. Short - term, copper prices are expected to adjust weakly, and it is recommended to do long - spread arbitrage on SHFE copper [8]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the US government shutdown and uncertainties in Indonesia's nickel - related policies, nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, there is still pressure from oversupply of primary nickel [89]. - **Stainless Steel**: With weak raw material prices, reduced steel mill production, and weak downstream demand, stainless steel futures will fluctuate weakly [90]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色金属价格监测 - Various有色金属 showed different price trends. For example, the US dollar index was at 99.5, with a daily decline of 0.15%, a weekly decline of 0.18%, and an annual decline of 8.24%. The price of industrial silicon was 9,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.71%, a weekly increase of 1.32%, and an annual decrease of 16.07% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's exports declined in October, the US consumer confidence index hit a new low, and the US government shutdown continued, all of which were bearish for copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, but the tight supply pattern continued. The accident at Freeport's mine in Indonesia will lead to a decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [8]. - **Smelting End**: The losses of smelters using spot copper ore narrowed, while the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore increased. Domestic copper production continued to decline in October [8]. - **Demand End**: Although downstream demand improved slightly due to the decline in copper prices, the overall downstream copper product start - up rate in October decreased significantly [8]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign visible copper inventories increased, and global copper inventories continued to rise [8]. 3.3 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Nickel** - **Macro Factors**: The US government shutdown and weak domestic manufacturing PMI put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [89]. - **Raw Material End**: Indonesia restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was firm. The import of nickel ore from the Philippines decreased seasonally, and domestic port inventories decreased slightly [89]. - **Smelting End**: Pure nickel production was at a high level, but some enterprises planned to reduce production at the end of the year. Nickel iron prices were stable, and the demand for nickel sulfate increased [89]. - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, and the demand for new energy vehicles was strong, increasing the demand for nickel sulfate [89]. - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories continued to increase [89]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Production**: Domestic stainless steel production increased in October but is expected to decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series is also expected to decline slightly [133]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of stainless steel remained stable, with narrow inventory increases mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series [139]. - **Supply and Demand**: The import of stainless steel increased slightly in September, while exports decreased. Overseas demand was weak, and the subsequent tariff policy was uncertain [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply - demand fundamentals show a pattern of oversupply. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, it is still at a low level. The cost - side support is insufficient, and the export is affected by policies and competition, making it difficult to increase significantly [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has increased slightly due to maintenance, and the production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 80.75%, a 2.49% increase from the previous period. The maintenance loss volume is 4.323 tons, a decrease of 0.684 tons from the previous period [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 42%, a 0.8% increase from last week. The start - up rate of PVC profile enterprises has increased by 1.96%. The capacity utilization rate of PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. The export from January to September has increased, with a cumulative export of 292.16 tons [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 6, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.13% to 104.16 tons, with an increase of 26.42% year - on - year. The inventory in the East China region has increased, while that in the South China region has decreased [3] - **Basis**: It is neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 111 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of both PVC production processes have decreased. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous period. The average profit of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3] - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short at high levels; for arbitrage, there is no recommendation [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has oscillated weakly this week. The supply is still at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The spot prices in different regions are: 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton in East China, 4650 - 4710 yuan/ton in South China, 4420 - 4550 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 4580 - 4640 yuan/ton in Shandong [6] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Output**: After the end of maintenance, the output in the Northwest has rebounded [35] - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. Factories in various regions have reduced their inventory [43][53] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The average downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, with the pipe start - up rate at 42% and the profile start - up rate at 37.83% [3][67] - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but the export has slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to policies and competition [75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short - selling recommendation for the oil and fat industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - With the expectation of a looser supply of oils and fats both at the production areas and in the domestic market, the fundamental situation of the oil and fat market is bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil and soybean oil are neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Malaysian palm oil production areas have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter are increasing. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but the amount for commercial crushing is uncertain. There are expectations of peace talks between China and Canada, and there are good harvests in Canada, Australia and other production areas this year [5] - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Indonesian biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, with an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5] - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic oil and fat inventory is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of replenishing inventory due to a large number of purchases by traders. For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5] - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles. Some of the US biodiesel exemption petitions have been approved, and there is still uncertainty about RVO. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5] - **Investment View**: Short - term short - selling. In the context of the expected looser supply of oils and fats at the production areas and in the domestic market, the oil and fat fundamentals are bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short palm oil and rapeseed oil; Arbitrage: Long Y01 and short P01; Options: Buy call options for protection. Risk concerns include MPOB and USDA reports, unexpected production cuts, and policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][11][14] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past and future periods [21][23][25] - **Indonesian and Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: It includes the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia from 2021 to 2025 [33][38][39] - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences**: It shows the import quantities of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price differences between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][49] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It includes the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [51][53][55] - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It shows the temperature and precipitation distributions in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil in the next 15 days, as well as the good - to - excellent rate and harvesting progress of US soybeans [62][65][71] - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It includes the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026 [75][79] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, the daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and the weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [89] - **Rapeseed Situation**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in the rapeseed - producing areas of Canada and Europe in the next 15 days, the soil moisture in Canada, the FOB prices of rapeseed in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, the import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the domestic market from 2021 to 2026 [90][99][101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating with an upward bias" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor. With China's expected procurement of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and upward - biased trend following the US market. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus is likely to limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is bullish. USDA's current estimate of the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations, indicating a tight supply - demand balance sheet. As of November 1st, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. In November, domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5] - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and for rapeseed meal is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory factor is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and are expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The profit factor is bullish. Domestic soybean purchase and crushing margins are poor, while Canadian rapeseed crushing margins are good [5] - **Valuation**: The valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high - neutral valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is bullish. Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariff measures on US - imported goods have been adjusted, with a 24% additional tariff rate suspended for one year, leaving a 10% additional tariff rate, and the current tariff rate for Chinese imports of US soybeans is 13%. Canada cannot immediately cancel tariffs on China [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and risks to watch include policy and weather; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [5] 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [34][40] - **US Soybean Data**: The US soybean sowing rate and good - quality rate data are presented, and the domestic crushing profit has declined. This week, no US soybean export sales data were announced [49][54][67] - **Price and Profit Data**: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean crushing margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and Canadian rapeseed import crushing margins are provided [74][78] - **Inventory and Consumption Data**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while feed enterprise inventories are at low levels. Data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, as well as oil mill opening rates, crushing volumes, and meal product trading and consumption volumes, are also presented [85][98][107] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Data**: Data on livestock and poultry breeding profits, pig prices, weights, and poultry breeding inventories are provided, showing that pig prices have slightly declined and weight reduction is not obvious [123][127][131]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现实博弈，低位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-10 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地仍面临集中上量压力，华北质量偏差的潮粮也面临保管压力，建议关注11-12月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳 中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年9月，全国工业饲料产量3036万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比增长5.0%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.6%， 同比下降2.4个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利润呈现亏损，国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重， | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-10 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格偏低 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 产量下滑。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.91万吨，比30日-1.33%。行业开工率为75%，比30日-1.35个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.56%，比30 | | | | 日-1.07个百分点。本周1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，4条燃煤产线集中停产，供应量环比下降明显。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估 | | | | 下周浮法玻璃日产量维持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化，企业库存6313.6万重箱，环比-265.4万重箱，环比-4.03%，同比+29.05%。折库存天数27.1天，较上期-0.9天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | （1）本周基差震荡；（2）01-05 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain strong. However, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Sino - US games and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the marginal decline in the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose monetary cycle [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: Early in the week, market sentiment was relatively stable, with the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showing mixed gains and losses and small fluctuations. On Thursday and Friday, the market was weaker, and contracts of all maturities generally closed down. In general, long - term contracts (such as 30 - year and 10 - year) performed slightly weaker than short - term contracts [4]. - **Incremental Information**: In October 2025, the central bank resumed open - market operations of buying and selling Treasury bonds, achieving a net investment of 20 billion yuan, which increased market demand and smoothed market fluctuations. To address the liquidity gap of about 2 trillion yuan in November, the central bank conducted equivalent roll - overs of 70 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements and may increase the roll - over of 6 - month repurchase agreements. In October 2025, in US dollar terms, exports were $305.353 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; imports were $215.279 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% with a growth slowdown of 6.4 percentage points compared to September and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%; the trade surplus was $90.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the surplus was lower than market expectations [4]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), reverse repurchase rates, capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), R007&DR007 trading volume and spreads, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, excess reserve ratios, LPR, deposit reserve ratios, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][11][13]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The content shows various charts of Treasury bond futures arbitrage indicators, including basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][45][54].

国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 基本面表现疲弱，纯苯苯乙烯下行 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：基本面疲弱，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯-石脑油价差缩窄至217美元，苯乙烯-苯价差仅128美元，均处于亏损区间，非一体化的生产利润依然是负的。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 港口累库，截至2025年11月3日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：12.1万吨，较上期库存8.5万吨累库3.6万吨，环比上升42.35%；较去年同期库存10.1万 | | | | 吨累库2.0万吨，同比累库19.80%。由于利润收缩，供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求仍在下降。 | | 库存 | ...