Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by CATL's meeting related to the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine, the market sentiment is negative, and there is a renewed discussion about whether eight major mines will shut down simultaneously on September 30. Fundamentally, if they shut down, the impact on the total supply will be limited as other sources can provide supplements. Emotionally, if they shut down, it will stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month time node [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,450, down 400; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,200, down 400 [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 842, down 2; the price of lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1075; the price of lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1775; the price of amblygonite (Li20:6% - 7%) is 5770; the price of amblygonite (Li20:7% - 8%) is 6845 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,375, down 95; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,300, up 400; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,350, up 600; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,800, up 250 [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1290, down 560; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140, unchanged; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 340, up 100 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,512, down 1580; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 36,213, down 3262; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 58,279, up 3072; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,020, down 1390; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,625, up 234 [2] Production Profits - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,410, and the profit is - 2019; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 76,792, and the profit is - 7378 [2]

股指期权数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/9/15 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国资期货财资 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 指数 2968. 5397 1774.53 61. 71 上证50 -0. 49 -0. 57 6895. 76 266. 44 沪深300 4521. 998 中证1000 7422. 8844 0. 31 5088. 28 315. 84 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认洁期权 持仓量 认购期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 (万张) PCR PCR 3.75 上证50 5. 76 0. 39 9. 35 0. 67 1. 62 5. 60 4. 14 沪深300 10. 32 22. 96 5. 17 0. 50 12. 50 0. 84 15. 49 10. 45 中证1000 22. 25 38. 00 15. 75 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost support. With the restart of domestic PTA devices, PTA output is rising, and the basis is rapidly declining. The OPEC+ meeting increased oil production again. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. [2] - The ethylene glycol basis is weakening. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene glycol device is putting pressure on the market. Although the arrival of overseas ethylene glycol devices has decreased, the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has rebounded. [2] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11, 2025, to 475.3 yuan/barrel on September 12, 2025, a decrease of 13.9 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4688 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4620 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan/ton. The spot and disk processing fees also decreased. The PTA - SC price difference increased by 61.01 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0270 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4302 yuan/ton to 4272 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha price difference decreased by 4.2 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4386 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 838 to 832, and the PX - naphtha price difference decreased by 1 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The prices and cash flows of most polyester products showed certain changes, and the sales rates of long - silk, short - fiber, and slices all decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 83.71% to 87.16%, an increase of 3.45% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate remained at 78.25% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate remained at 60.88% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 88.25% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [3]

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | 卢钊教 | | 10 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 980 | 3307 | 1154 | | = | 前值 | 1444 | 1149 | 2189 | 1013 | 3073 | 1315 | | ि | 涨跌幅 | -3.21% | -2.07% | 8.27% | -3.26% | 7.61% | -12.24% | | ਵ | | S ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The September USDA supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to lower exports, resulting in the ending inventory of U.S. soybeans in the 25/26 season at 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing a certain bearish impact. However, the balance sheet of the new U.S. soybean crop remains tight, supporting the downside of the U.S. soybean futures. Meanwhile, recent rumors of China - U.S. trade negotiations have had a certain bullish impact on the U.S. soybean futures. After a short - term decline due to loss data and short - selling, the U.S. soybean futures rebounded strongly. In addition, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost of U.S. soybeans and the premium, it is expected to support the downside of the domestic soybean meal futures. [7] - In China, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high, and oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods, putting pressure on the spot basis. Overall, the domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be supported by the import cost and will mainly move in a range. Future focus should be on policy changes between China and the U.S. and between China and Canada. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data on Basis - For soybean meal, the basis data in different regions on September 12, 2025 are as follows: in Dalian, it is 41; in Tianjin, - 39; in Rizhao, 29; in Zhangjiagang, 29; in Dongguan, - 99; in Zhanjiang, - 59; in Fangcheng, 9. For rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the basis is 56, with a change of - 28. [5] Spread Data - The M1 - RM1 spread is 259, with a change of - 20; the RM1 - 5 spread is 125, with a change of - 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of the main futures contracts is 27. [6] Import and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan is 42.00. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium shows a certain trend, and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market is 305 yuan per ton, with a change of 5. [6] - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented, as well as the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises and the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills. [6] 开机和压榨情况 - The opening rate and soybean crushing volume data of major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the weakening of the US employment market in August and relatively controllable inflation pressure in August, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September hit a new low since May, which supports the market to continue trading the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and boosts the strong rise of precious metal prices. Concerns about US economic stagflation are rising, boosting the industrial properties of silver. Before the interest - rate cut in September, precious metal prices are still supported and expected to remain strong at high levels, but volatility may intensify. Key events to watch this week include the Fed's August FOMC meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [6]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization wave with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Tracking - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3650.31/ounce, London silver spot rose 2.4% to $42.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.5% to $3688.50/ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.6% to $42.60/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.4% to 834.22 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 2.4% to 10035 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.4% to 830.68 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.5% to 10010 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, from September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 7.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 10.7%, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 31.8%, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 0.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the AU2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 20.4%, and the AG2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 13.0% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.32% to 974.8 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 15069.6026 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 2.87% to 324875 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.72% to 63135 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 4.89% to 261740 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.71% to 72450 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.16% to 18513 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 3.55% to 53937 contracts [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.58% to 52950 kg, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.51% to 1246569 kg, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 38914491 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.55% to 527423230 troy ounces [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.09%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.14% to 3.56%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.25% to 4.06%, the VIX increased by 0.34%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05% to 6584.29, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.58% to $62.60 [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On September 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.1% to 80.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.36% to 10035 yuan/kg [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the oil and fat industry, with short - term retracement and consolidation [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the report believes that the oil and fat market will rise in the medium and long term, but currently, there is no fundamental driver. It is expected to wait for the bullish drive from the origin supply side to bring a new round of upward trend. The key is to select the right entry point [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish, and soybean oil is neutral. The Malaysian report is neutral, and the USDA report on US soybeans is slightly bearish with a downward adjustment in the good - to - excellent rate. Indonesia's low inventory in June and firm export prices support international palm prices, and the anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed remains, making it difficult for Australian rapeseed imports to supplement rapeseed oil supply [5]. - **Demand**: It is neutral to bearish. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil and fat trading volumes compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory continued to increase last week, creating a bearish expectation gap compared to the previous "peak inventory and destocking" expectation, mainly affecting the weakening of the basis and the monthly spread [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks, Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and the US biodiesel RVO remains uncertain [5]. - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term retracement and consolidation. It maintains the view of a medium - to - long - term rise in oil and fat, waiting for bullish drivers from the origin supply side [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see, and go long on dips. For arbitrage, go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - This part presents multiple charts related to the closing prices of oil and fat main contracts, price spreads, and spot price differences, but no specific text analysis is provided [7][9][14][15]. PART THREE: Fundamentals of Oil and Fat Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asia**: It shows data on Southeast Asian weather, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, as well as Indonesia's and Malaysia's monthly supply and demand data for palm oil, such as production, export volume, and inventory [19][21][31][37]. - **India**: It presents India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international soybean - palm oil price spread [44]. - **China**: It includes data on China's palm oil import profit, supply and demand, such as import volume, trading volume, and inventory, as well as data on soybean and rapeseed, including US soybean production conditions, US and Brazilian soybean exports, and Canada and EU rapeseed production and exports, and China's domestic processing and inventory of related oils [50][61][73][88][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - **Cost**: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - **Production Scheduling Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, as the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" arrives, the supply and demand of steel may shift from weak to strong. However, for steel prices to have an upward rebound drive, it requires confirmation of an upward acceleration in demand indicators. Currently, the price upward drive is not clear, and the next two weeks should focus on whether the peak - season demand accelerates upward [2]. - In the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market, the previous large - scale losses in the alloy industry have turned into profits, with supply increasing. Terminal demand needs to be verified during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric furnace starts, and inventory de - stocking pressure remains [3]. - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, but the coal - coke futures price decline space may be limited. Short - term trading is volatile, and mid - term investors can consider going long on dips [5]. - In the iron ore market, during the restocking period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the performance of steel demand. It is still recommended to buy on dips in the long term [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 12th, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3189 yuan/ton with a rise of 39 yuan and a 1.24% increase; HC2605 closed at 3368 yuan/ton with a rise of 21 yuan and a 0.63% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 26 yuan and a 0.84% increase; HC2601 closed at 3364 yuan/ton with a rise of 22 yuan and a 0.66% increase [1]. - As of September 12th, the roll - screw spread was 237 yuan/ton with a decrease of 5 yuan; the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 with an increase of 0.02; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42 with a decrease of 0.01; the steel - making profit on the screw thread was - 62.68 yuan/ton with an increase of 30.65 yuan; the coking profit on the disk was 103.32 yuan/ton with a decrease of 8.49 yuan [1]. Spot Market - On September 12th, the Shanghai screw thread price was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; the Tianjin screw thread price was 3190 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangzhou screw thread price was 3240 yuan/ton with no change; the Tangshan billet price was 3010 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.35 with an increase of 0.7 [1]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3410 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3440 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan; the Guangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3390 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the billet - material spread was 200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3010 yuan; the PB price at Rizhao Port was 791 yuan/ton with a decrease of 9 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis; pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage; and focus on reverse arbitrage (end - user buying hedging) for spot - futures arbitrage [7]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - For coking coal and coke, mid - term investors can consider going long on dips with last week's low as a reference [7]. - For iron ore, continue the strategy of buying on dips [7].