投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 进口成本支撑盘面，关注中美政策 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-09-15 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：进口成本支撑盘面，关注中美政策 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | （1） 短期偏空， 中期偏多 | 9月USDA供需报告对美豆单产的下调幅度不及预期，需求端上调了压榨，并继续下调出口，最终导致25/26年度美豆期末库存3亿蒲略高于市场预期， | | | | 带来一定的利空影响，但美豆新作平衡表仍维持偏紧的基调；（2）本周美豆优良率降至64%，近期产区降雨偏少，同时气温偏高，优良率或继续下调。 （3）9月国内大豆到港量预期在千万吨以上，豆粕预期仍处于累库周期；10月国内大豆预期开始去库，明年一季度的豆粕供需缺口取决于中美政策变化； | | | | （4）中加贸易政策下，国内进口菜粕和菜籽供应预期缩量；（5）澳菜籽进口放开，预期补充四季度国内菜粕供应。 | | 需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the container shipping index is "oscillation", and the trading strategy for unilateral trading is also "oscillation", with an arbitrage strategy of 10 - 12 reverse - spread rolling operation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index shows continuously falling freight rates, approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September - lower market FAK freight rate center at 1750. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the supply and demand of shipping capacity are also neutral. It is expected that the offline freight rate will drop to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September - lower prices of GEMINI dropped to 1600, OA to 1800, PA to 1700, and MSC to 1750. The fourth - quarter long - term contract negotiation has begun, and shipping companies are still cautious about long - term quotes below the current FAK level, while PSS may be reduced or cancelled in the fourth quarter [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are multiple events such as the meeting between Baysent and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, MSC's adjustment of its US route network, Trump's plan to urge G7 to impose high tariffs on India and China's purchase of Russian oil, and the US experiencing a stagflation - like situation [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average shipping capacity deployment in July was 300,000, 315,000 in August, 305,000 in September, and 270,000 in October. There are changes in overtime ships and cancellations of sailings, with about 12% of planned voyages (85 out of 720) cancelled between weeks 38 - 42, and 65% of the cancellations concentrated in weeks 40 - 41 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is still lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a significant difference in the decline rate of the loading rate from China to Europe compared to that from Asia to Europe. The loading rate of GEMINI has rebounded due to significant price cuts, while the loading rates of the other two major alliances continue to decline [3] - **Summary**: In the European shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "grab goods", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rate will return to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November. The suspension of some shipping capacity during the National Day holiday will not be restored after the holiday, and the reduction of ships in the off - season has limited impact on the market [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, a new alliance established, and falling prices in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships such as those with 8,000 - 11,999 TEU, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, etc. [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, etc. [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities, including quarterly and annual data [24] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [31] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data on the new - building ship price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including 13,500 TEU, 15,500 TEU, etc. [40] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the capacity of ships over 25 years old, and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships [46] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: There are data on the shipping capacity deployment of container ships from Shanghai to European basic ports, including the total shipping capacity deployment and the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc. [60] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: There are data on the number and proportion of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation [71] - **Average Speed**: There are data on the average speed of container ships, including the overall average speed and the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities [74] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and the proportion of idle ships [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on corn is "oscillating." Before any significant policy changes, given the expectation of selling pressure from the new - season bumper harvest and the decline in planting costs, the C01 contract is expected to have some downside potential. The trading strategy suggests a short - position for the C01 contract and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting the corn market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It concludes that in the absence of obvious policy changes, the corn market will oscillate due to the new - season bumper harvest selling pressure and the decrease in planting costs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In the short - term, it is bullish; in the medium - term, it is bearish. Old - crop supply is tightening, new - crop has not been widely harvested. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, with an estimated port - collection price of 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area is slightly decreasing, but the yield per unit is expected to be good, maintaining an overall bumper - harvest expectation. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, reducing imported grain supply [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral to bullish. In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 33.1%. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short - term, supporting feed demand, but national policies may control pig inventories and weights, affecting long - term supply. The wheat - corn price difference is moving out of the substitution range. Feed enterprises have limited space to further compress inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks. However, the downstream demand of deep - processing is poor, with processing profits in the red, forcing the operating rate to a low level and reducing deep - processing demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. North - port inventories have been continuously decreasing to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased this week. Feed enterprise inventories have declined to a historical low, and deep - processing corn inventories have also reached a low level [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig farming remains profitable, broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red. Deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are deeply in the red [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is moderately high [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, the national average price, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port, the market price at Shekou Port, the spot price of corn starch in Shandong, the position of the corn futures contracts, and the spreads between different contracts [5][7][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Port and Transportation**: North - port corn arrivals and the remaining vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong are presented. The Shekou - Jinzhou price difference and the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports are also shown. North - port inventories have decreased to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased [20][22][35]. - **Imported Grains**: In July, corn imports were at a low level, while sorghum and barley imports increased [27]. - **Feed Industry**: Feed enterprise inventory days and monthly feed production are presented. The livestock and poultry industry has short - term high - inventory support for feed demand, but policies may affect long - term supply [42][44]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices are falling, and pig weights are at a high level. Broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red [51][55][60]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption has slightly increased, but inventories have declined to a low level. Starch processing profits are in the red, and inventories are high. Alcohol production has a seasonal increase in the operating rate, but processing profits are in the red. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, moving out of the substitution range, and flour demand is weak [64][72][93]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26. Global corn production and its distribution are presented, along with the export sales of US corn, including total and China - bound sales [113][117][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "wait - and - see" for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced. Spinning capacity is in excess, and the high operating rate keeps the industrial demand for cotton firm. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating this week, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton has been stable. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level. The current absolute price of cotton is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The old crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and a high operating rate keep the industrial demand for cotton firm [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the Xinjiang double - 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton was stable [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, inland spinning has a serious loss, and the yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The national cotton planting area in the first survey of 2025 is 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the Xinjiang cotton planting area is 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [8][9] - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationwide and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Inventory - The accumulation of finished product inventory has slowed down. Data on the raw material and finished product inventories of weaving and spinning mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [18][19][21] 3.2.3 Mid - stream Factory Load - The operating rate is declining. The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [25][26][27] 3.2.4 Mid - stream Spinning Mill Profit - Spinning mills are in the red. The immediate spinning profit and the yarn - cotton spot price spread are presented in the form of time - series charts [29][30][32] 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high. The inventories and finished product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size are presented in the form of time - series charts [34][35][36] 3.2.6 Import and Export - Domestic cotton and cotton yarn import data are presented in the form of time - series charts. US cotton exports to different countries show different trends: exports to China and Pakistan are at a low level, exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [39][41][50] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Basis - The basis is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in the form of time - series charts [63][64][65] 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Spread - The 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of time - series charts [67] 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Position - The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The position data of the 09 and 01 contracts are presented in the form of time - series charts [69][70][72] 3.3.4 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt - The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in the form of time - series charts [74][75] 3.3.5 Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton - The net long position, long - position proportion of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in the form of time - series charts [81][83][84] 3.3.6 US Cotton Month Spread - The US cotton 12 - 03 month spread shows a "Deep Contango" pattern, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [86][87]

张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-09-15 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 等 待 旺 季 需 求 高 点 验 证 建 材 旺 季 需 求 迟 迟 未 见 改 善 ， 板 块 震 荡 运 行 铁矿石 补 库 周 期 内 铁 矿 支 撑 仍 存 ， 钢 材 需 求 成 色 决 定 高 度 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：等待旺季需求高点验证 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 本周铁水产量重回240wt附近，完成阅兵带来的周度数据修复；废钢日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 原油价格下行，芳烃进入淡季 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-09-15 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：原油价格下跌，苯乙烯弱势运行 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 01/02 03/02 05/02 07/02 09/02 11/02 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 亚洲苯乙烯与石脑油的价差为266美元/吨，苯乙烯与苯的价差也降至149美元。因此，亚洲生产者经济仍然处于负值区域。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 港口小幅去化，现货苯市场的购买情绪有所转弱，江苏纯苯港口14.4万吨，小幅去库但市场的预期较差。持续累库，供给端随着检修结束，供给端明显增 ...

2012 31 2025-09-15 F3071622 Z0014205 F03133773 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 : | 1 | 0.6 | 83 | ; | 2 | 20 | 83.4% | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.8% | -1.4% | 92.9% | -2.4% | 81.1% | -2.0% | 76.0% | -4.3% | 87.7% | +0.8% | 78.7% | +0.1% | 88.5% | | 1 | 2 | 87.77% | +0.67% | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | 65.76% | +0.13% | 3 | 2025 | 6 | 49.27% | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 20 | 35.68 | ( | ) | 7.99% | | | | | | | | 15.48% | 19.40% | 1.58% | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate earnings on the stock index is neutral. In August, the growth rate of social financing declined for the first time, with a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan in new social financing. The growth rate of government bond net financing decreased year - on - year for the first time since November 2023. Corporate short - term loans reached a record high, while household short - term loans hit a new low. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 increased slightly, but the growth rate slowed down [3]. - Macroeconomic policies have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. The Ministry of Finance will maintain policy continuity and stability, and strengthen flexibility and foresight. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year has increased [3]. - Overseas factors have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. In August, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. Sino - US leaders will hold talks [3]. - Liquidity has a positive impact on the stock index. As of September 11, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. However, last week, the average daily trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to adjust and go long. Next week, there will be a large number of domestic and foreign macro - events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and Sino - US leaders will hold talks. The trading volume of the market has decreased, and the driving force of liquidity on the stock index has weakened. It is recommended to control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces**: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are slightly positive; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is positive [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is to adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.38% to 4522; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7; the CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, and non - ferrous metals led the gains last week, while only the comprehensive, banking, pharmaceutical and biological, and social service sectors declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.88%, and the open interest increased by 0.05% [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of September 12, different contracts of various stock index futures had different premium or discount rates [16]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 were at different historical percentile levels [20]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. Next week, 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and there will also be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [27]. - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: As of September 11, the margin trading balance of A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week decreased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and social financing showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of social financing stock declined for the first time after rising for 10 consecutive months [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate**: The real estate market showed signs of weakness, such as a decline in the growth rate of real estate investment [37]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Consumption**: The growth rates of various consumption indicators showed different trends, with some categories experiencing growth and others decline [48]. - **Economic Fundamentals - Manufacturing**: The growth rate of the manufacturing industry showed a certain degree of slowdown, but different sub - sectors had different performances [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of different stock indices and industries showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit of the CSI 500 was 7.30% in the first half of 2025 [56]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in the real estate, consumption, and finance sectors. For example, Shanghai and Shenzhen have adjusted real estate purchase restrictions, and the government has introduced a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [61][62]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate increased slightly, and the number of new non - farm jobs decreased. The growth rates of CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, while the year - on - year growth rates of PCE and core PCE were 0% [70][73]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Measures**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had an impact on global trade and Sino - US economic and trade relations [79][81]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels**: As of September 12, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [87]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels**: Different sectors had different levels of return on equity, revenue growth rates, and price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]