Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The core view is that the pig slaughter volume has decreased, and the futures and spot prices are oscillating. The investment view is neutral, with cautious second - fattening demand, stable supply, cost support at the bottom, and the market likely to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish, long - term bullish. The inventory and performance of sows capable of reproduction are steadily recovering. Theoretical calculations suggest that future supply will continue to increase, with greater pressure in the fourth quarter. However, the state is optimizing production capacity and guiding weight reduction, which is beneficial for the long - term market [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The utilization rate of pens for second - fattening has decreased, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is low. Seasonal temperature drop and pre - holiday stocking demand have led to a seasonal improvement in terminal consumption [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis and monthly spread oscillated at a low level this week [3]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit has turned slightly negative [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, with limited downside space [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand and a moderately loose monetary policy, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - **Investment View**: Neutral. Second - fattening demand is cautious, supply is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to second - fattening demand and feed prices; for arbitrage, also wait and see [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: The report presents price data of Henan standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and first - three - grade white - striped pigs from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Production Capacity Scale**: It shows the inventory data of sample sows capable of reproduction, including inventory volume, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, as well as relevant data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of newly - born healthy piglets and commodity pig slaughter numbers in five - province samples, and survival rates in pigsties and fattening [11][13][23]. - **Commodity Pig Inventory Structure**: It includes the inventory proportion data of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg) from 2021 - 2025 [28]. - **Price Spread and Weight Data**: It shows the standard - fat price spread, north - south price spread, average slaughter weight, and average weight after slaughter [33]. - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Data**: It presents the monthly slaughter volume data of leading enterprises such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [42]. - **Slaughter Situation**: It includes daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse开工率, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as white - striped pork wholesale volume in Xinfadi Market, arrival volume in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao markets, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [49][56]. - **Profit and Cost Data**: It shows self - breeding and self - fattening profit, profit from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed price [58]. 3.3 Pig Capital - related Data The report shows the basis data of 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts, and the spread data between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, and 05 - 09 from 2022 - 2025 [64][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - **New Energy Metals**: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - **Investment View**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Import Side**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Demand Side**: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - **Investment View**: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of butadiene rubber is "oscillating". In the short - term, the trend of cis - polybutadiene rubber is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the arrival of butadiene ocean - going vessels and the maintenance of cis - polybutadiene rubber on the fundamentals [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton this cycle. The cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber remained strong, but downstream buyers still tried to push down prices. Although the domestic production and capacity utilization of cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, considering the upcoming maintenance in September - November, the bearish sentiment in the market decreased [3][4]. - In terms of influencing factors, supply is bearish due to the operation status of some plants; demand is neutral with different situations in the semi - steel and all - steel tire markets; inventory is neutral with small changes and the need to pay attention to future inventory changes; basis, spread/price ratio are neutral; profit is bearish affected by production costs and market prices; geopolitical and macro factors are bearish because of OPEC+ production increase, weak domestic economic indicators and capacity reduction in the petrochemical industry [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber in China was 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of August 28, 2025. The production and capacity utilization of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber reached the highest level of the year, and the cost support led to an increase in the supply price of mainstream suppliers. However, downstream buyers still pressured prices [4]. 3.2 Price Comparison - The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The market prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - The prices of butadiene, cis - polybutadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber industry chain also had different degrees of change. For example, the market price of butadiene in Hangzhou increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. 3.3 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [9]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries in China in 2025, including those of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC. It also details the maintenance situations of butadiene and high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber plants [10][11]. 3.5 Price Spread and Basis Analysis - Analyzes the cross - variety price spreads and month - to - month spreads of BR, as well as the seasonal analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC price spreads. It also presents the basis analysis of cis - polybutadiene rubber in different regions [12][13][22]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Analysis - In terms of butadiene, it shows the monthly production, apparent consumption, port and terminal inventory, as well as the production cost and profit. For cis - polybutadiene rubber, it includes the design capacity, production, import and export, inventory, cost, and profit. For styrene - butadiene rubber, it covers the capacity, production, inventory, and import and export [44][75][87]. 3.7 Downstream Market - Analyzes the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream products such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel) and conveyor belts [101][107][113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of LPG have improved, and the combustion demand has recovered. Both the domestic and overseas PG markets are running stably. The CP price remains stable, the demand for propane and butane in the Far East has been repaired periodically, and the high - level warehouse receipts are driving the PG reverse spread operation. In the short term, the PG futures price is affected by delivery and is expected to decline, but the overseas price is stable, and there is an expectation of subsequent repair [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - Different energy and chemical products have different price trends. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,411 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly increase of 0.55%, a monthly increase of 14.42%, and an annual decrease of 12.34% [3]. 3.2 LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 650,000 tons (a decrease of 0.17%). The civil LPG commodity volume was 215,400 tons (a decrease of 1.03%), the industrial LPG was 206,200 tons (a decrease of 2.95%), and the ether - after C4 was 174,700 tons (a decrease of 3.03%). The LPG arrival volume last week was at a relatively low level, and the import resource supplement was limited. Some enterprises in Shandong resumed production, and the commodity volume increased month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: The combustion demand has recovered, supporting the firm price of civil LPG. In the C4 deep - processing aspect, the domestic crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month, but the MTBE profit was inverted, and the alkylated gasoline profit turned from profit to loss. In the C3 deep - processing aspect, the PDH maintenance was concentrated and restarted, and the operating rate increased, which supported the demand, but the performance of propylene and terminal PP was average [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the LPG inventory in domestic factories was 171,700 tons (a decrease of 1.96%), and the port inventory was 3,075,200 tons (a decrease of 2.98%). The LPG inventory in various regions of the country showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals in various regions were gradually improving. The port arrival volume decreased significantly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, and the overall import resources showed a downward trend [4]. - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 112 yuan/ton, in South China was 171 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 132 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 13,207 lots, an increase of 320 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.02%, 54.43%, and 48.29% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were 117 yuan/ton, - 531 yuan/ton, and - 328 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was 2.29%, and the PG continuous first - continuous second monthly spread was 87 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. - **Others**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and EIA and IEA relaxed the supply - demand balance sheet, so crude oil was regarded as bearish in the long term. The newly added RMB loans of financial institutions in July showed negative growth, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed to 3.2%. The government launched consumer loan interest subsidies, and the domestic economy still faced pressure. The country phased out backward petrochemical production capacity below 2 million tons and upgraded technological facilities, and South Korea reduced the naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7 million tons [4]. 3.3 LPG Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated higher, with a fluctuation range of 4,270 - 4,400 yuan/ton. The main contract this week was PG2510, which is a traditional peak - season contract. Although the crude oil price fell, the domestic spot market rebounded from the bottom, and the peak - season demand was expected to be strong. Coupled with the increase in import costs, the sellers pushed up the price, and the futures price followed the spot price higher. The domestic transaction price increased, but the increase was small, and the basis weakened this week. The lowest deliverable product was priced in East China. As of Thursday this week, the total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 13,283 lots, an increase of 335 lots compared with last Thursday [5]. 3.4 LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the current price of PG01 was 4,202 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.89% [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts also showed different trends. For example, the current PG01 - PG02 monthly spread was 60 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 34.07% [10]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The cross - month spreads of different contracts also had different changes. For example, the current PG01 - PG03 cross - month spread was 147 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.53% [10]. 3.5 Refinery and Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China had maintenance plans in 2025, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC refineries. For example, Beihai Refining and Chemical had a full - plant maintenance from March 25 to June 6, 2025, with a processing capacity of 6.4 million tons [12]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries also had maintenance plans, mainly in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and North China. For example, Zhonghaiwai Energy in Rizhao had a normal - pressure distillation unit maintenance starting from May 25, 2025 [12]. - **LPG Factories**: Many LPG factories in China had device maintenance in 2025. For example, Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 tons/day [14]. - **PDH Devices**: Some PDH devices in China had maintenance or shutdown situations. For example, Wanhua Chemical (Penglai) in Shandong planned to have a two - week maintenance starting from August 22, 2025 [15]. 3.6 Market Price and Spread Charts - The report also provided a series of market price and spread charts, including domestic and overseas LPG prices, basis, monthly spreads, cross - month spreads, and cross - variety spreads, to show the historical trends and changes of these indicators [19][21][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices rose strongly. The main influencing factors include political pressure weakening the Fed's independence, economic data and consumer confidence index consolidating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, a weakening dollar index, geopolitical tensions, and market risk - aversion sentiment. Silver outperformed gold due to key mineral tariffs. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, but the rate - cut may not exceed 25bp. [4] - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy on dips. [4] - In the long - term, gold is bullish, while the upside potential of silver should be treated with caution. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) - **Gold and Silver Price and Gold - Silver Ratio**: - London spot gold rose from $3371.235/oz to $3446.805/oz, a weekly increase of 2.24%. Shanghai gold futures rose from 773.40 yuan/g to 785.12 yuan/g, a 1.52% increase. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased from 84.14 to 83.65, a 0.58% decline. [3] - London spot silver rose from $38.8880/oz to $39.6910/oz, a 2.06% increase. Shanghai silver futures rose from 9192 yuan/kg to 9386 yuan/kg, a 2.11% increase. [3] - **ETF and CFTC Position**: - The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 increased from 956.77 tons to 977.68 tons, a 2.19% increase. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 1721 contracts to 214311 contracts, a 0.81% increase. [3] - The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 increased from 15289 tons to 15310 tons, a 0.14% increase. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 83 contracts to 46466 contracts, a 0.18% decrease. [3] - **Inventory Data**: - SHFE gold inventory increased from 37.455 tons to 39.624 tons, a 5.79% increase. COMEX gold inventory increased from 1199.47 tons to 1210.73 tons, a 0.94% increase. [3] - SHFE silver inventory increased from 1109 tons to 1196 tons, a 7.83% increase. COMEX silver inventory increased from 15816 tons to 16119 tons, a 1.92% increase. SGE silver inventory decreased from 1287 tons to 1282 tons, a 0.39% decrease. [3] 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking) - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Spreads**: - The US dollar index rose slightly from 97.7244 to 97.8477, a 0.13% increase. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased from 7.1712 to 7.1221, a 0.68% decrease. [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 3.7069% to 3.6188%, a 2.38% decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased from 4.2615% to 4.2245%, a 0.87% decrease. The US 10 - year real interest rate decreased from 1.85% to 1.82%, a 1.62% decrease. [3] - **Economic Data**: - The US manufacturing and service PMI both declined. The US retail sales data showed mixed performance. The second - quarter GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. Employment cooled significantly, with a rise in the unemployment rate and a decrease in job vacancies. [56][57][58][62] - Inflation showed signs of rising pressure, with increases in core PCE and consumer inflation expectations. [68][70][71][72] - **Eurozone Data**: - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered slightly, while the service PMI declined. The eurozone GDP rebounded from the bottom. The inflation data of the eurozone and the UK showed certain trends. [76][77][78] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month. In July 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73960000 ounces (about 2300.41 tons), a month - on - month increase of 60000 ounces (about 1.86 tons). [85] - In Q1 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 21.4%. Global central banks are expected to maintain net gold purchases. [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Steel market: The steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention to short - term long opportunities. The 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace's static cost, providing static support for hot metal production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - Ferro - silicon and ferromanganese: The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has limited impact on dual - silicon. The anti - involution policy supports prices in the long - term. Supply is increasing, inventory is being depleted, and steel tenders are generally positive, but inventory pressure remains [5][6]. - Coking coal and coke: The market is expected to be weak. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line long - position investors should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - Iron ore: Although there is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, considering the "anti - involution" policy and potential policy changes in the steel sector, the 01 - contract has effective support below [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83% [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On August 28, the coil - rebar spread was 256 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.96, down 0.05; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42, down 0.02; the rebar disk profit was - 69.33 yuan/ton, down 8.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 109.75 yuan/ton, down 24.93 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On August 28, Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 103.9, up 1.45. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the billet - product spread was 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral short - term long positions can be taken with the 3100 level as the support and the previous low as the stop - loss. For futures - cash operations, follow the basis changes and conduct positive - spread rolling operations [4][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread. Industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities after price increases [7][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock indices, the rapid flow of funds amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key nodes of domestic and foreign macro - events in September, stock index fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space of bond futures [1]. - The probability of interest rate cuts in September remains high, and the gold price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. - Key mineral tariffs help the silver price rise, but volatility risks still need to be vigilant [1]. - Due to repeated market sentiment, copper prices are oscillating [1]. - During the domestic consumption off - season, the downstream demand for aluminum is under pressure, and aluminum prices are running weakly [1]. - The increase in both production and inventory of alumina weakens the fundamentals and pressures the price. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - position layout in the far - month contract [1]. - The continuous increase in social inventory pressures the zinc price, but the LME zinc inventory is still decreasing, and the macro - sentiment still supports the non - ferrous sector. The downward space of zinc price is limited, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement raises the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the macro - sentiment turns warm. The nickel price is expected to rebound with macro - oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel rise, the social inventory remains stable, and the steel mills resume production after profit repair. The stainless steel futures are expected to rebound with oscillations in the short term [1]. - The improvement of macro - sentiment boosts the tin price. Although the short - term fundamentals show weak supply and demand, the upward trend of the tin price center remains unchanged [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply resumes in the southwest and northwest, there is great hedging pressure, and market sentiment is relatively strong [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - long term, terminal installation willingness is low, but profits are considerable [1]. - For lithium carbonate, there are frequent disturbances at the resource end, and the short - term downstream replenishment volume is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the valuation returns to neutral, the industrial drive is unclear, and the macro - drive is warm [1]. - For iron ore, the near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the anti - involution situation is long - term, and they follow the black sector in the short term [1]. - For glass, the reality is weak, the market returns to trading fundamentals, and the near - term is weak while the far - term is strong [1]. - For soda ash, the reality is weak, the expectation declines, and the price goes down [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the fundamentals are marginally weakening, and they are regarded as oscillating weakly [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia's "strong reality" of low inventory and high export quotes, along with the "strong expectation" of implementing B50 next year, and the less - than - expected exemption of small refineries in the US are regarded as a situation of "bad news being exhausted" [1]. - For soybean oil, there is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, and an opening of the export trade flow, which brings an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. The raw material cost supports the upward movement of soybean oil [1]. - For rapeseed oil, the reduction of rapeseed production in Russia and Ukraine, the less - than - expected increase in sunflower oil production in the Black Sea region, and the expected reduction in rapeseed supply support the price of new - season rapeseed oil [1]. - For cotton, the short - term increase in positions drives the price up, and the 01 contract has limited upside. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - For sugar, it is running strongly, but the upside is limited, and attention should be paid to the oscillation range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - For corn, it is currently in the new - old transition window period, the supply of remaining grain is tightening, and the C01 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - For soybean meal, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the downside space is limited under cost support [1]. - For pulp, the external quotation is rising, and the 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - For logs, the futures are approaching delivery, and the valuation is reasonable, with an expected oscillation range of 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - For live pigs, the slaughter is gradually increasing, the weight reduction is limited, and the breeding cost is decreasing [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as India's reduced procurement of Russian crude oil, OPEC +'s continued production increase, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause concerns about demand [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The probability of the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, domestic rainfall disturbs production, the raw material cost support is strong, the inventory reduction is slow, and the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC +'s continuous production increase makes the crude oil fundamentals loose, the downstream trading of BR rubber improves slightly, and attention should be paid to inventory levels and autumn device overhauls [1]. - For PTA, domestic device returns increase production, the PX - naphtha price spread expands, and the profit is significantly repaired [1]. - For ethylene glycol, there are rumors of industry reform, the arrival of overseas devices decreases, but the hedging volume increases after the price rises [1]. - For short - fiber, factory overhauls increase, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market gradually increases under high basis and strong cost [1]. - For urea, the export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is warm, there are many overhauls, and the demand is mainly rigid, with prices oscillating weakly [1]. - For PP, the overhaul support is limited, orders are rigid, and the price oscillates weakly as the market returns to fundamentals [1]. - For PVC, the supply pressure increases as overhauls decrease, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price oscillates weakly [1]. - For styrene, the spot market is approaching the peak season, the inventory is low, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector reappears [1]. - For LPG, there are rumors of industry reform, the freight rate rises, the Middle East supply decreases, and domestic chemical demand increases, but attention should be paid to the cancellation in September and the 9 - 10 month spread [1]. - For container shipping routes, the supply in September exceeds the same - period level, the high - price airline quotes are expected to decline, and the freight rate decline is slightly faster than expected [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rise, with the approaching of September macro - event nodes, fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Treasury bonds: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central bank's interest rate risk reminder suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold: Bullish. High probability of interest rate cuts in September supports the price in the short term [1]. - Silver: Bullish. Key mineral tariffs help the price rise, but volatility risks need attention [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Oscillating. Repeated market sentiment leads to oscillating prices [1]. - Aluminum: Oscillating weakly. Domestic consumption off - season pressures downstream demand [1]. - Alumina: Attention should be paid to far - month long - position layout opportunities due to increased production and inventory [1]. - Zinc: Oscillating. Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decrease and macro - support limit the downside [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation and rebound following the macro - situation. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term oscillation and rebound. Attention should be paid to actual steel mill production [1]. - Tin: The price center is expected to move up. Pay attention to seasonal overhauls in Yunnan [1]. - Industrial silicon: Oscillating. Supply resumes, hedging pressure is large, and market sentiment is strong [1]. - Polysilicon: Oscillating. Medium - long - term capacity reduction expectation, low terminal installation willingness, but considerable profits [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating. Resource - end disturbances and limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillating. Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro - drive is warm [1]. - Iron ore: Oscillating. Near - month restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: Oscillating. Anti - involution is long - term, following the black sector in the short term [1]. - Glass: Oscillating. Weak reality, near - term weak and far - term strong [1]. - Soda ash: Oscillating downward. Weak reality and declining expectation [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly. Fundamentals are marginally weakening [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Bullish. Indonesia's "strong reality" and "strong expectation", and "bad news being exhausted" in the US [1]. - Soybean oil: Bullish. Expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and raw material cost support [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Bullish. Production reduction and supply shortage expectations support the price [1]. - Cotton: Short - term increase in positions, limited upside for the 01 contract [1]. - Sugar: Strongly running, limited upside, attention to 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - Corn: Oscillating at a low level. New - old transition period, tightening supply of remaining grain [1]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating. Short - term weak performance, limited downside under cost support [1]. - Pulp: Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread due to rising external quotes [1]. - Logs: Oscillating. Approaching delivery, reasonable valuation [1]. - Live pigs: Slaughter increasing, weight reduction limited, cost decreasing [1]. Energy - Chemical - Crude oil and fuel oil: Oscillating. Concerns about demand due to multiple factors [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillating. Following crude oil, sufficient supply [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillating. Production disturbance, strong cost support, slow inventory reduction [1]. - BR rubber: Oscillating. Loose crude oil fundamentals, slightly improved downstream trading [1]. - PTA: Bullish. Increased production, expanded price spread, and repaired profit [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating. Rumors of reform, decreased arrival, increased hedging [1]. - Short - fiber: Oscillating. More overhauls, increasing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea: Oscillating. Easing export sentiment, insufficient domestic demand, cost support [1]. - PE: Oscillating weakly. Warm macro - sentiment, many overhauls, rigid demand [1]. - PP: Oscillating weakly. Limited overhaul support, rigid orders, returning to fundamentals [1]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly. Increasing supply pressure, many near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Styrene: Bullish. Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1]. - LPG: Oscillating. Rumors of reform, rising freight rate, supply - demand changes [1]. Others - Container shipping routes: Freight rates are expected to decline. Supply exceeds the same - period level, and high - price quotes are expected to fall [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is in a downward trend. The main reasons include Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which raised market expectations for interest rate cuts, and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture, leading to pre - trading of furniture shipments. The short - term market still has room to decline [6]. - The current shipping market demand is weak. With more overtime ships in late August, spot freight rates are under significant pressure. The market has shifted to a buyer - dominated situation, and there is no clear price - increase plan from shipping companies yet. Trump's tariff policies and global over - capacity further suppress trade volume [7]. - OCEAN's freight rate reduction in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on NSK to cut prices. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1415, down 3.07% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1175, down 1.55%. Rates on various routes, such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe, all decreased, with the SCFI - Northwest Europe dropping by 8.35% and the SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 8.72% [4]. - **Contract Data**: All shipping contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2608) showed price declines, with the largest drop of 3.05% in the EC2512 contract. Regarding positions, the positions of some contracts (e.g., EC2608, EC2410) increased, while the EC2606 position decreased by 1 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 18.5, while the 12 - 2 and 12 - 4 monthly spreads decreased by 8.7 and 16.7 respectively [4]. 3.2 Market News - Trump imposed a 50% tariff on most US imports from India to punish India for buying discounted Russian oil. The average spot freight rate on the US East route has dropped to the lowest level since the end of 2023, and the decline is expected to continue [5]. - Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang is expected to visit Washington this week to seek a new path based on the existing tariff truce [5]. 3.3 Market Analysis - The shipping market is in a downward trend. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts and Trump's tariff threat on furniture led to pre - trading of furniture shipments. The short - term market still has room to decline [6]. - The shipping market demand is weak. Overtime ships in late August pressured spot freight rates. Shipping companies such as MSC and MSK have announced September quotes, generally maintaining August levels. MSK will lower the peak - season surcharge and raise the overweight surcharge threshold. Some shipping companies are relaxing long - term low - price booking restrictions. The empty - sail rate on the European route in September is low, and there is no obvious signal of supply tightening in the short term [7]. - OCEAN's freight rate reduction in September is accelerating, which may force NSK to cut prices. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to be weak and volatile [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a 10 - 12 reverse spread on a rolling basis [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - Core view: Affected by the negative impact of the news of opening Australian rapeseed imports on rapeseed meal and the expectation of China-US talks, the soybean meal 01 contract showed weakness today and is expected to be range - bound in the short term. With the current poor crushing profit and the narrowing of the price difference between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans to a normal range, there is limited downside space for M01 under cost support [6]. Group 2: Industry Data Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on August 28: Dalian was 111 with a rise of 16; Tianjin was 21 with a rise of 6; Zhangjiagang had a rise of 6; Dongguan was -99 with a fall of -4; Zhanjiang was -79 with a fall of -14; Fangcheng was -59 with a fall of -14. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 22 with a rise of 19. M9 - 1 was -50 with a rise of 3 [4]. Spread Data - On August 28, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (in Guangdong) was 447 with a rise of 27, and the spread of the main contract was 376 [5]. Inventory Data - As of relevant time, domestic soybean inventory increased to a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation slowed down but was still in the inventory - building cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased [6]. Supply and Demand Data Supply - USDA's August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 33.6 (historical high), but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The Pro Farmer inspection results showed that the estimated yield per acre of new - crop US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA's estimate. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%. In the next two weeks, there will be less rainfall in the production areas but lower temperatures, which may lead to an expected decline in the good - to - excellent rate. The expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans in August and September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in the inventory - building cycle; the purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expected inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control the inventory and weight of pigs is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the use of protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were relatively cautious [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals have weak support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 77,700 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2605 closing price is 76,300 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2606 closing price is 76,100 yuan/ton, down 2.24% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2607 closing price is 75,960 yuan/ton, down 2.34% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2608 closing price is 76,240 yuan/ton, down 2.48% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2509 closing price is 78,140 yuan/ton, down 2.18% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 889 US dollars, down 31 US dollars [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,205 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - Lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,915 yuan, down 55 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 6,425 yuan, down 285 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 7,500 yuan, down 275 yuan [2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power - type) average price is 35,205 yuan, down 385 yuan [2] - Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) average price is 145,900 yuan [2] - Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 119,100 yuan, down 300 yuan [2] - Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 123,925 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,860 yuan, down 880 yuan [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 100 yuan, down 40 yuan [2] - The spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 0 yuan, down 180 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,136 tons, a change of - 407 tons [2] - Downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 52,800 tons, an increase of 1,293 tons [2] - Other inventory (weekly, tons) is 45,000 tons, an increase of 1,810 tons [2] - Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 28,957 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,440 yuan, and the profit is 2,418 yuan [3] - The cash cost of外购 lithium mica concentrate is 80,022 yuan, and the profit is - 3,245 yuan [3] Industry Event - A meeting on the lithium iron phosphate material branch council was held on August 22 to discuss solutions for eliminating backward production capacity and low - carbon transformation of the entire industrial chain [3] Supply and Demand Situation - Although there is a reduction in production at the Jiangxi mica end, overseas mines, overseas salt lakes, and domestic compliant mines have formed a supplement, mainly a structural adjustment on the supply side. On the demand side, weekly production is basically stable, with products moving from upstream to downstream but limited actual consumption [3]