1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", with the expectation that styrene will be weak due to cost collapse [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple factors influence the pure benzene and styrene markets. Supply - side maintenance resumption exerts pressure, while demand shows mixed trends both domestically and overseas. Inventory levels fluctuate, and profit margins and valuations vary. Macro - policies have a positive impact, but overall, the styrene market is expected to be weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The spread between Asian styrene and naphtha is $340, and the spread between styrene and benzene is over $170. However, Asian non - integrated producers are still in the negative economic zone. Supply - side maintenance resumption pressures the market [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Port inventory accumulation weakens the spot benzene market's buying sentiment. Domestic demand remains stable due to new styrene production, while overseas demand declines due to low derivative operating rates [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of August 25, 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu is 179,000 tons, a 10.84% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory is 84,000 tons, a 9.80% increase [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis weakens, profit slightly expands, and subsequent pure benzene and styrene show inventory accumulation [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $340, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $170 [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Styrene plant supply recovery increases, compressing profits, with a neutral valuation [3]. - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. The Politburo meeting on August 29 put forward requirements for safety production and natural disaster prevention [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Styrene cost collapses, expected to be mainly weak [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral - wait and see. Geopolitical risks should be monitored [3]. 3.2 Pure Benzene & Styrene Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: Weakens as the peak season ends [5]. - **Styrene**: Integrated plant profits are still poor, and styrene arrivals at ports increase [13][25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are weak, and demand continues to accumulate inventory [36]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: Runs weakly, with stable production capacity utilization and production margins [51]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: Inventory rises, and profits are repaired [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: Load increases, but margins decline [73]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: Shows a simultaneous increase in volume and price [82]. - **Phenol**: Inventory rises [92]. - **Adipic Acid**: Production margins are low [103]. - **Caprolactam**: Prices are at a low level [114]. - **Household Appliances**: Export demand declines [123]. - **Styrene Market**: Asian styrene prices recover, but concerns about increased domestic production and low consumption pressure the market. Overseas demand continues to decline [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bullish; soybean oil is neutral to bearish. The heavy rain in Malaysia in the next week may bring bullish weather speculation. The good rate of US soybeans has been further raised, and other fundamental changes are not significant. Indonesia's low inventory in June and the firm export price still support the international palm oil price. US soybean pod numbers are excellent, but the yield per unit is slightly lower than USDA's forecast. There is still an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed cannot temporarily supplement the rapeseed oil supply [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before. Countries such as Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are actively promoting biodiesel policies, which is the biggest driver for the tightening of oil and fat supply. There may be state reserves to digest the high - inventory demand [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory increased last week, which has a bearish expectation difference compared with the previous expectation of "inventory peaking and de - stocking", mainly affecting the basis and the spread between months to weaken [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral to bullish. The previous expectations remain unchanged. The US has an interest - rate cut expectation, the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy is exhausted, there is an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the Indonesian government is determined to implement B50 but the progress is expected to be slow [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction. The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Call options. Unilateral: Buy on dips. Risk concerns: Crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances. Arbitrage: Go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts such as P9 - 1, Y9 - 1, OI9 - 1, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][10][12] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past, present, and future periods [19][21][23] - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][36] - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][42] - **Indian Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: It includes the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [43][45][47] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [49][51][53] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate in the US soybean - producing areas, as well as the export situation of the US and Brazil [61][64][73] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation**: It presents the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and the export and domestic arrival situation of rapeseed [88][99][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It includes the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly production of soybean oil in domestic crushing plants, the daily trading volume of soybean oil, the weekly inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed oil [87][108][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry lacks upward drivers, with near - term contracts converging towards weak spot prices. The eighth round of price hikes for coking coal and coke has been put on hold, and there are rumors of price cuts. For iron ore, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment cycle at high hot metal production levels provides price support [3][5][63][113] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron ore production is stable around 240wt, with potential short - term declines due to the parade. Scrap steel consumption is at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are accumulating seasonally. Policy - related production cuts may have limited impact on total output [5] - **Demand**: Weekly production and sales data show a slight recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious. Some spot goods from previous basis trading are flowing back into the market. Export policies may face new tightening [5] - **Inventory**: Total inventory is at a low level, but the current high production may increase future inventory pressure. The rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has recovered. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 120, up about 19 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Long - process steel mills still have profits, but they have been significantly compressed compared to early August. Electric furnace profits have also been compressed [5] - **Valuation**: Industry profits are compressed, and the futures price has returned to a neutral valuation range [5] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, and China is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on production [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Monitor the impact of the parade on production and market sentiment, and watch for potential mismatches during the peak seasons [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, stop losses on short - term long positions and wait and see. For arbitrage, there are no recommendations. For basis trading, take rolling profits on positive basis positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel inventory accumulation is faster than the seasonal norm. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has declined [63] - **Coking Coal Supply**: There are more production cuts in domestic coal mines, Mongolian coal imports remain at a relatively high level, and overseas coal prices are falling [63] - **Coke Supply**: Environmental protection has led to a significant short - term reduction in coke production, but coking profits remain high [63] - **Inventory**: Downstream procurement has slowed down, and upstream production is still restricted before the parade. Overall, there is no obvious oversupply [63] - **Basis/Spread**: After the seventh round of coke price hikes, the warehouse receipt cost is 1645, and the port trade warehouse receipt cost is 1629. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost in Shanxi is around 1130, and that of Mongolian coal is around 1070, with near - term contracts almost at par [63] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly decreased, while coking profits have increased [63] - **Summary**: Maintain a view of weakening oscillations. Pay attention to the steel inventory situation and wait for the first round of coke price cut news before evaluating long - position layouts [63] - **Trading Strategy**: Actively sell spot goods and adopt a high - short strategy in the futures market. For arbitrage, wait and see [63] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The average daily shipment has slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery of Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments. The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and the future arrival volume is expected to continue to decline [114] - **Demand**: Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profitability rate has declined. Iron ore inventory will transfer from ports to steel mills in September. Steel demand shows a slight recovery, mainly from building materials [114] - **Inventory**: Steel mills will continue to replenish inventory, and it is difficult for inventory to accumulate significantly at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Profit**: Steel mills' profits are still high, and hot metal production can remain at a high level in the short term [114] - **Valuation**: The valuation is relatively neutral at high hot metal production levels [114] - **Summary**: The black sector is oscillating. In September, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment will support iron ore prices. Pay attention to the impact of the SCO meeting and the parade on hot metal production [114] - **Investment View**: Bullish [114] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks a clear driving force, and international oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, industrial policies, geopolitics, and macro - finance influence the oil market, with the overall investment view being bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. Overall, there is an upward trend in production, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for global crude oil demand, with a neutral impact on the market [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed trends, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and India's procurement of Russian oil has decreased, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: Tensions between the US and India, and the situation in Iran have increased market concerns about supply, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short Term)**: EU - US trade policies and court rulings on US tariffs have a positive impact on the market [3]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bullish, suggesting a long - only strategy for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil decreased by 1.70%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.38%, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.30%. Other refined oil products also showed different price changes [5]. - **Inventory**: US, European, and Singapore oil product inventories, as well as Chinese oil product inventories, showed different trends [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of futures warehouse receipts for various oil products increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rates**: Refinery operating rates in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased slightly [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: International oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of August 29, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil had different price changes [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24]. - **Crack Spreads**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, while jet fuel crack spreads remained stable [28][37]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - OPEC production increased in July, and non - OPEC countries' production also showed an upward trend [47][60]. - US weekly crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [72]. - **Inventory** - US commercial inventories decreased, and Cushing inventories decreased [84]. - Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [93]. - **Demand** - In the US, gasoline implied demand increased slightly, and refinery operating rates declined from a high level [110]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [120][129]. - **Macro - Finance**: The US dollar index fluctuated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [142]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative long positions in WTI crude oil increased [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market has ample liquidity, and stock index is expected to rise further. The economic situation shows certain resilience, with both supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improving, but the supply-demand gap is widening. Macro policies are generally favorable, including real estate policy relaxation and potential monetary policy adjustments. Overseas factors, such as Trump's actions regarding the Fed, also have a certain impact on the market [3]. - Investment strategy suggests taking a long position during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts to reduce position volatility and risk [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The August 2025 manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4%, with both supply and demand indicators rising, indicating economic resilience. However, the supply-demand gap widened to 1.3 percentage points, and price indices have been rising for three consecutive months [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, adjusting housing purchase restrictions,公积金, and credit policies, which is expected to boost the real estate market [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office, and Cook sued Trump, which may affect the Fed's policy direction [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of August 28, the A-share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market has ample liquidity, and the macro news is generally positive. The strategy is to go long during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 2.71% to 4496.8, the SSE 50 rose 1.63% to 2976.5, the CSI 500 rose 3.24% to 7043.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7438.7 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (12.4%), non - ferrous metals (7.2%), electronics (6.3%), comprehensive (5.9%), and power equipment (4%) led the gains, while textile and apparel (-2.9%), banking (-2.1%), transportation (-1.5%), light manufacturing (-1.3%), and building decoration (-0.9%) led the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 36.32%, and the open interest increased by 5.85%. The trading volume of SSE 50 futures increased by 17.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.83%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures increased by 32.89%, and the open interest increased by 6.35%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures increased by 14.61%, and the open interest decreased by 0.77% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of August 29, the annualized premium of the current - month contract IF2509 was 3.65%, and the annualized discount of IC2509 was 11.63% [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 94% historical percentile, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 59.9% historical percentile [19]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan. Next week, 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature [27]. - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: As of August 28, the A - share margin trading balance was 2236.54 billion yuan, an increase of 88.81 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macro Indicators**: In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. Supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improved, but the supply - demand gap widened [38][52]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, which may stimulate the real estate market [3]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of consumer goods retail sales in July 2025 was 3.7%, and different consumer sectors showed varying degrees of growth [48]. - **Manufacturing**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment in July 2025 was 6.2%, and different manufacturing sub - sectors had different performance [49]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: The growth rate of infrastructure investment in July 2025 was 7.3%, and different infrastructure sub - sectors had different growth rates [50]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The performance of different broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices in terms of net profit growth and ROE varied [57][58]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Macro Policy Trends**: Many important meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference, the Politburo Meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference, which have deployed economic work for the second half of the year and introduced policies to support consumption, investment, and the real economy [62][64]. - **Policy Expectations**: The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and may introduce more policies to support the economy and the capital market [65]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In July 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 48%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 73,000. The PCE and CPI showed a slight increase [70][72][77]. - **Trump's Actions**: Trump has implemented a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the US and other countries, especially China [79][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report presents a table of caustic soda's main weekly data, including prices, production, operating rates, inventory, and cost - profit data. For instance, the futures price of caustic soda is 2670.0 yuan/ton, down 2.59% from last week; China's production is 810,000 tons, down 0.38% [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Multiple charts are presented, showing the trends of caustic soda's basis, prices of different types of caustic soda (such as 32% and 50% caustic soda), and trading volume of different contracts over different time periods from 2019 to 2025 [7][10][12] PART THREE: Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are various charts showing data related to caustic soda's supply - demand fundamentals, including device loss volume, capacity utilization, inventory in different regions of China (such as North China, East China, and Northwest China), and ECU profits in different provinces (such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang) from 2019 to 2025 [30][33][35] - Charts also display the operating rates of downstream industries such as epoxy chloropropane, epoxy propane, and PVC, as well as the operating rates in different regions like Shandong and Northwest China over different time periods [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Base/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - **Factory Load**: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - **Spinning Mill Profit**: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - **US Cotton Month Spread**: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic is becoming long - term, but the weak reality remains, and the market sentiment fluctuates sharply. The glass market has poor fundamentals and prices are under pressure. The soda ash market has a high supply, neutral demand, cost support, but large near - month inventory and delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output is stable this week, with the industry start - up rate slightly increasing, and supply may increase slightly next week [3] - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [3] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory is being depleted, with enterprise inventory at 62.566 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decline of 1.63%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.31%. The inventory days are 26.7 days, 0.5 days less than the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 09 - 01 spread both declined [3] - Valuation: Neutral. Current prices are mainly under pressure, but costs provide support [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Fundamentals are poor, and prices are under pressure [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Neutral. Supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week as previously shut - down enterprises resume production [4] - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, with an increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume, but terminal demand is difficult to improve, and there is still negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory decreased slightly, with total manufacturer inventory at 186750 tons, a decrease of 4330 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.27% [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward [4] - Valuation: Neutral. Futures prices adjusted downward, but costs provide support [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4] - Investment View: Neutral. The weak reality continues, inventory is high, and sentiment is volatile [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, prices were under pressure. The main contract closed at 1182 (+9), and the Shahe spot price was 1060 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1296 (-28), and the Shahe spot price was 1211 (+4) [12] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. The industry start - up rate was 75.68%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 21st. The industry capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, the same as on the 21st. Glass production profit fluctuated [27] - Demand: Under pressure in the off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor, but inventory is being depleted [32] Soda Ash - Supply: Output decreased temporarily. This week, soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons, a decline of 6.78%. Alkali plant profit decreased [34][35] - Demand: Neutral. Overall demand is neutral, short - term direct demand is stable, and photovoltaic daily melting volume has rebounded, but terminal demand is poor, and there is still negative feedback pressure on prices. Inventory decreased slightly [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with unilateral trading and arbitrage both rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of asphalt follows crude oil, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. In September, the traditional peak season, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but the contradiction is not prominent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: - In September 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41%) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17%). From January to September, the total production is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18%). The increase is due to factors such as good profit margins, sufficient low - cost raw materials, and the resumption or planned production increase of some refineries [4] - Southeast Asian asphalt resources are in tight supply, supporting import prices. Korean asphalt prices in September have slightly declined compared to August, while Singapore and Thai asphalt prices remain firm [4] - **Demand**: - Demand release is less than expected. In the north, some demand has slightly increased, and in the south, demand has slightly recovered with less rainfall. This year's peak season may not be prosperous, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work is likely to be disproven [4] - This week, domestic refinery shipments reached 404,000 tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. Shipments in North China decreased due to rain and project suspension, while those in East and South China increased [4] - **Inventory**: - This week, domestic factory inventories decreased, especially in Shandong. The reasons are intermittent production suspension, product conversion, and the fulfillment of previous orders [4] - Social inventories also decreased, with significant regional differentiation. In the Northeast, high prices and reduced production led to inventory reduction, and in the Northwest, project rush - work increased demand [4] - **Cost**: - International oil prices first rose for three consecutive days due to positive inventory data and geopolitical factors, then fluctuated. The initial decline was due to concerns about trade and the re - evaluation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the subsequent rise was due to a decline in US inventories [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [15][16][17] - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025, as well as the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) [23][27] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions (North China, South China, Northeast, Shandong, East China) from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36][37] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][47] 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [51][53][54] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [56][57] 3.7 Demand - **Shipments**: It shows the shipments of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [60] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][64][66][67][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index has declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector has strengthened. With the increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are expected to be strong; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and face long - term supply surplus pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9][81][183][184] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing prices of various non - ferrous metals are monitored, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals show different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.8, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%; the price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [5][6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. Trump's actions and Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the upcoming US non - farm data may further boost this expectation [9] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The spot processing fee of copper ore remains low, and the port inventory has increased [9] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of those using long - term contracts have increased. The electrolytic copper output in September may decline [9] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The copper rod开工率 has declined slightly, but it is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [9] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The copper inventory shows an internal decrease and external increase trend, and the global visible inventory is relatively stable [9] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Bullish on copper prices. In the short term, it is expected to be strong. The trading strategy includes unilateral long - term and internal - external positive arbitrage [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. The US GDP has been revised upwards, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The overall macro sentiment has improved, but the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm is uncertain [81] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee is stable, and the imported processing fee index has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, but the refinery's purchasing enthusiasm is not high [81] - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The output in August is expected to be high, and the output in September may decline slightly due to some refinery overhauls [81] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal demand is in the off - season but has resilience. The export of galvanized sheets may decline [81] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and the internal and external inventory differentiation has deepened [81] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities. Unilateral long - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [81] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly bullish. The US core PCE is slightly higher than the previous value, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has increased, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector [183][184] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The Indonesian nickel ore premium is stable, and the domestic port inventory has increased. The nickel iron price has rebounded, and the MHP coefficient has increased [183][184] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The pure nickel output is high, and the stainless steel production is expected to increase [183][184] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand in the new energy sector is high [183][184] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly [183][184] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Nickel**: Bullish in the short term, with long - term supply surplus pressure. Unilateral range - bound operation and wait - and - see for arbitrage [183] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to fluctuate widely. Unilateral wait - and - see or short - selling at high prices and no arbitrage [184]