Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA prices rebounded rapidly due to policy expectations, with cost support from rising crude oil prices, high polyester downstream demand, and potential overseas demand recovery after positive signals from China - US economic and trade negotiations [2] - The price of ethylene glycol is under continuous pressure due to low port inventory, limited port arrivals, expected decline in overseas imports, and domestic device commissioning, but the overall polyester inventory is in good condition and downstream weaving load is maintained [2] - It is expected that polyester will run weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the fundamentals of crude oil are declining [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 464.9 yuan/barrel on October 24, 2025, to 468.9 yuan/barrel on October 27, 2025, with a change of 4.00 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1139.5 yuan/ton to 1208.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 68.93 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3373 to 1.3546, with a change of 0.0174 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 815 to 821, with a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 240, with a change of 6 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4518 yuan/ton to 4616 yuan/ton, with a change of 98.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4450 to 4505, with a change of 55.0 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee increased from 75.9 yuan/ton to 111.7 yuan/ton, with a change of 35.8 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 153.9 yuan/ton to 222.7 yuan/ton, with a change of 68.8 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 4077 yuan/ton to 4109 yuan/ton, with a change of 32.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha was at (131.72) yuan/ton on October 24 and (131.91) yuan/ton on October 27, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4187 to 4183, with a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 84.62%; PTA operating rate remained at 79.46%; MEG operating rate increased from 61.89% to 63.50%, with a change of 1.61% [2] - Polyester load decreased from 89.38% to 89.28%, with a change of - 0.10% [2] Product Price and Cash - flow - POY150D/48F price remained at 6400; POY cash - flow decreased from (57) to (103), with a change of - 46.0 [2] - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6655; FDY cash - flow decreased from (302) to (348), with a change of - 46.0 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 7720 to 7730, with a change of 10.0; DTY cash - flow decreased from 63 to 27, with a change of - 36.0 [2] - Long - filament sales decreased from 101% to 70%, with a change of - 31% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6400 to 6405, with a change of 5; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 293 to 252, with a change of - 41.0 [2] - Short - fiber sales decreased from 83% to 68%, with a change of - 15% [2] - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5525 to 5545, with a change of 20.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (32) to (58), with a change of - 26.0 [2] - Chip sales increased from 54% to 222%, with a change of 168% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the performance of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the trading volume, closing price, and turnover of index options [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, with a weekly increase of 2.88%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% with a weekly increase of 4.73%. The ChiNext Index rose 3.57% with a weekly increase of 8.05%. The CSI 300 rose 1.18% with a weekly increase of 3.24%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.15% with a weekly increase of 2.74%. The STAR 50 rose 4.35% with a weekly increase of 7.27%. The Wind All A rose 1.27% with a weekly increase of 3.47%. The Wind A500 rose 1.31% with a weekly increase of 3.46%. The CSI A500 rose 1.38% with a weekly increase of 3.59% [5] - **Trading Volume**: A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.99 trillion yuan, compared with 1.66 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 3.67 million contracts, and put options was 3.73 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 2.51 million contracts, and put options was 6.25 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 1.16, and the open interest PCR was 0.46 [3] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 10.20 million contracts, and put options was 6.52 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 8.83 million contracts, and put options was 7.06 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.56, and the open interest PCR was 0.80 [3] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 22.14 million contracts, and put options was 12.73 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 26.83 million contracts, and put options was 13.75 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.74, and the open interest PCR was 0.95 [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curves are presented, including historical volatility cone data such as 10% and 30% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values [3][4] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, historical volatility and volatility smile curves are shown, along with historical volatility cone data [3][4] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curves are provided, along with historical volatility cone data [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of logs remains stable, and log futures are expected to perform strongly. The recommended investment strategy is an 11 - 1 calendar spread [4]. - The far - month log contracts are weakly operating. Currently, no traders are taking up the increased outer - market quotes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The supply factor is bearish [4][25]. - **Demand**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The demand factor is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The inventory factor is neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log 01 contract is between the receiving value and delivery cost, with a reasonable valuation [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is an 11 - 1 calendar spread. The trading strategy is a calendar spread of 11 - 1, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Last week, the log 01 contract was weakly operating, and there was an opportunity for reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 1 contracts. The far - month contracts should be viewed with caution [9]. - **Futures Position**: As of October 24th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 25,074 lots, a week - on - week increase of 16.9%. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,767 lots, a week - on - week increase of 31.7% [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 17th, 2025, the spot prices of Shandong radiation pine remained stable, and the prices of Jiangsu radiation pine also remained unchanged [16]. Part Three: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. In September 2025, the import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4993 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 14.79% and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 13.502 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% [21]. - **New Zealand Shipment**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The North American timber inventory remained unchanged, and the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provinces, the inventory in Shandong ports decreased by 2.43%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.73% [33]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong ports decreased by 0.58%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 35.20% [37]. - **Timber Square**: As of October 24th, 2025, the timber square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", indicating a short - term outlook of the market moving within a range [3]. Core View of the Report - The short - term demand side of the cotton market performs averagely, and the supply side maintains a loose pattern, so the cotton futures market may experience range - bound oscillations. Influencing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., present different driving forces. The supply is short - term bearish and long - term bullish; demand, profit, and valuation are bullish; inventory is bearish; and the impact of basis/spread and macro - policy is neutral [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Currently in the period of concentrated processing and inspection of new cotton, the selling pressure on the spot market persists. Market expectations include a possible reduction in the cotton target direct subsidy price in the next three years in the Central No. 1 Document in January - February 2026, a possible decrease in the planting area in March 2026, and a seasonal speculation window for domestic production area weather in April 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream yarn mills have low raw material inventories and strong restocking intentions. Seasonal pre - holiday restocking from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2026 may increase demand. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, which is beneficial for mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As new cotton is massively listed, inventory gradually accumulates [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis for pre - sold new cotton delivered before the end of January 2026 is 678, and the spread between Zhengzhou Cotton's January and May contracts fluctuates around - 50 this week [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, with positive cash - flow profits in Xinjiang and even inland areas, which encourages mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, there may be a restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of improved liquidity [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is abundant, so the market may move within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to monitor include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **Production**: The report presents historical data on national and Xinjiang cotton production from 2013 - 2025 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on national and Xinjiang commercial inventories, national cotton bonded - area commercial inventories, national industrial inventories, and mid - stream inventories (showing seasonal destocking of finished products). Mid - stream factory loads show a slow recovery in operation rates, and mid - stream yarn mills are currently in a loss - making situation. It also provides data on domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports and US cotton's weekly signing and shipment volumes, with US cotton's exports to China showing sporadic signing and zero shipments [9][14][22][27][32][41]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Basis and Spread**: Zhengzhou Cotton's basis is oscillating at a high level, and the spreads between different contracts are presented. The US cotton's monthly spread shows a Deep Contango pattern [45][64]. - **Position**: Data on Zhengzhou Cotton's contract positions and the net long positions of managed funds in US cotton futures and options are provided [53][59].

| ICERET | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/10/ | 板 含合用三 /0000 | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 趋势研判 | 品種 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 短期预计震荡运行。后续随着贸易摩擦的不利因素逐步缓解。股 | | | 指有望重回上行通道,同时,政策护盘和宏观流动性充裕的情形 | 農汤 | 投指 | 即便短期宏观不确定性增加,股指调整的空间也预计有限。 | 策略上,股指仍以择机做多为主。 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 農汤 | 国债 | 空间。 | | | 美国政府停摆持续、美联储10月仍有降息预期等,支撑金价,但 | 震荡 | 直金 | 中美进行新一轮经贸磋商,因此金价短期或维持宽幅震荡。 | | | | 短期或维持震荡,仍需关注伦敦实物情况。 | 震荡 | 自银 | 近期全球贸易摩擦有所缓解,叠加美联储议息会议临近,市场风 | | | | 险偏好回升,铜价有望继续偏强运行。 | 近期宏观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - **Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - **Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - **India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - **Rapeseed - Related Situations**: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supply: USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised down. Exports depend on Sino-US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week and 17.6% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 27.7%. Recently, there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean-producing areas, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking in November, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - Overall: Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillating trend has not changed. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and changes in South American weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 87, up 25; in Tianjin, it was 67, up 25; in Rizhao, it was 87, up 45. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 27, up 25; in Dongguan, it increased by 25; in Zhanjiang, it was 47, up 25; in Fangcheng, it was 27, up 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 64. The M1 - 5 spread was 165, down 3, and the M1 - RM1 spread was 475, up 26 [6]. - **Spread**: The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 608, up 9. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1.500, up 25, down 2 [7]. 3.2 Exchange Rate, Crushing Margin and Premium Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0847, unchanged. The crushing margin of imported soybeans was - 231.00 yuan/ton [7]. - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in different months in 2025 showed different trends, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans in some months was in the range of 210 - 420 cents per bushel [7]. 3.3 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - **Supply - demand**: In the supply side, the US soybean ending inventory and yield expectations may change, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate has increased, but the weather impact is limited. In the demand side, short - term livestock and poultry inventories are high, but breeding profits are in a loss state. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows a mixed situation with reduced maintenance and increased production this week, but different regions have different load changes. The demand side is neutral, with weak non - aluminum demand and stable overall production after offsetting increases and decreases. The inventory is increasing, and the profit, valuation are on the bearish side. The macro - policy has a neutral impact, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.6 tons to 80 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 80.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6%. Different regions had different load changes, with Northeast, East, and South China seeing load declines, and Northwest and North China having slight increases [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.02% from last week. The overall production of lithium hydroxide was stable [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The recent shipping pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 414,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.73% and a year - on - year increase of 37.78% [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 573 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.43% [3]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: It is expected to oscillate. There is no obvious short - term driving force for the futures market, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is no unilateral or arbitrage strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. The Shandong spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, the liquid chlorine price rose to 250 yuan/ton, the chlor - alkali profit remained high, and the factory operating load remained high. Demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn loose, with the spot price expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [32]. - **Upstream Production**: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [35]. - **Main Production Area Output**: In North China, maintenance increased, and output decreased [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: It decreased [39]. - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: The alumina start - up recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the start - up of new devices, the start - up rate of Henan alumina increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up was stable but lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum sector entered the seasonal off - peak season, and start - up declined [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans from October to November, including full - or half - load maintenance and shutdown for a certain period [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the treasury bond futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the central value moving slightly lower in the second half of the week. The bullish factor was the expectation of loose monetary policy. Market hotspots included the progress of Sino - US game and the focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan in the Fourth Plenary Session. The Sino - US talks signaled a marginal easing, raising market risk appetite. The 15th Five - Year Plan will have multi - dimensional impacts on the bond market, and in the long - term, the interest rate center is expected to remain at a historically low level [4]. - In the short term, treasury bond futures are expected to continue to be strong under the support of risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, but attention should be paid to potential fluctuations. In the long term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge, deflation is likely to continue, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - The treasury bond futures market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week, with the central value dropping slightly in the second half. The expectation of loose monetary policy was a positive factor. Market trading hotspots were the Sino - US game and the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US talks eased tensions, and the 15th Five - Year Plan will affect the bond market in multiple ways, with long - term interest rates expected to stay low [4]. - Short - term, treasury bond futures may stay strong, but beware of fluctuations. Long - term, due to insufficient effective demand and potential deflation, the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and trends on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), and various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and different types of repurchase rates and SHIBOR [10][12][14]. - It also shows information on capital prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and various repurchase rates, as well as data on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates and excess reserve ratios [18][25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation," which means the short - term PVC has no obvious driver and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has narrow adjustments, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has a slight increase affected by maintenance, and market demand remains flat. The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 76.57% (down 0.12% week - on - week and 0.67% year - on - year), with the calcium carbide method at 74.38% (down 0.34% week - on - week and 1.91% year - on - year) and the ethylene method at 81.64% (up 0.38% week - on - week and 1.68% year - on - year). The maintenance loss of production enterprises is 8.05 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has a slight improvement, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 39.13% (up 4.04% week - on - week and 1.63% year - on - year), and the start - up rate of profile enterprises has increased by 0.54% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. Exports have declined, with the August 2025 export volume at 28.41 tons, the export average price at $616/ton, and the cumulative export from January to August at 257.52 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 23, the production enterprise factory inventory production days are 5.6 days (down 11.11% week - on - week), and the social inventory has increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 103.52 tons [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 52 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have decreased week - on - week. The average profit of calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises is - 723 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of ethylene method is - 560 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week) [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is no strategy [3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support. The spot prices in different regions are provided, such as 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton for type 5 calcium carbide materials in East China [6]. - The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3. PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Raw Material and Production**: The northwest calcium carbide price, coal medium - sized material price, and related production data such as capacity utilization rates and profits are presented in the charts. The main production area's production has rebounded after maintenance ended [17][39]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The inventories in different regions and for different production methods are also shown in the charts [47]. - **Downstream**: The downstream average start - up rate, including pipe and profile start - up rates, as well as pre - sales volume, production and sales volume, and trader sales volume are presented in the charts [74][79]. - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition [82][84].