Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA market: The PTA market is bearish due to weak crude oil prices and news of possible production cuts in downstream polyester bottle chips. Domestic PTA production has slightly decreased due to concentrated breakdowns and maintenance of PTA plants. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened, and the weak benzene price has restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX has recovered, and the downstream polyester load has remained at around 88%. The polyester price has shown a positive trend, especially the inventory of filament has been well reduced, and the production and sales have been continuously optimistic with obvious profit repair. [2] - MEG market: There are rumors that China is planning a major reform of its petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to gradually eliminate small - scale and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials. South Korean naphtha cracking units are planning to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has recovered, and the continuous postponement of overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, may have a significant impact on the market outlook. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased, the polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil Relationship**: INE crude oil price increased from 479.7 yuan/barrel on August 27, 2025, to 481.7 yuan/barrel on August 28, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1338.0 yuan/ton to 1291.4 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3838 to 1.3689. [2] - **PX Data**: CFR China PX price decreased from 854 to 849, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 259. [2] - **PTA Data**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4824 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price decreased from 4835 yuan/ton to 4775 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 220.5 yuan/ton to 215.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 239.5 yuan/ton to 237.2 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30940 to 29938. [2] - **MEG Data**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4481 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (93.21) yuan/ton to (95.40) yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price decreased from 4553 yuan/ton to 4527 yuan/ton. [2] - **Industry Chain Start - up Rate**: PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 72.16% to 70.76%, MEG start - up rate remained at 60.27%, and polyester load decreased from 86.11% to 86.03%. [2] - **Polyester Product Data**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6882 to 6860, and its cash flow increased from (24) to 11. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7140, and its cash flow increased from (269) to (209). DTY150D/48F price remained at 8040, and its cash flow increased from (69) to (9). The filament production and sales rate increased from 40% to 43%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6655, and its cash flow increased from 121 to 156. The staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 39% to 40%. [2] - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5880 to 5860, and its cash flow increased from (129) to (89). The chip production and sales rate decreased from 67% to 42%. [2] Device Maintenance A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has started maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to start maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of about one month. [2] Trading Suggestions - PTA: Due to significant fluctuations in the recent polyester futures price, investors are advised to participate with caution and pay attention to the impact of subsequent plant progress on the market. [2] - MEG: The price recovery of ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors such as industry reform rumors and overseas plant maintenance postponement, and attention should be paid to the impact of these factors on the market. [2]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Liquidity - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.99bp change, GC001 at 0.97 with a -54.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a -5.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35 (-0.15bp), 1.60 (-0.25bp), 1.76 (0.20bp) respectively, and 10 - year US treasury bonds at 4.24 (-2.00bp) [4] - The central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and on Friday, 50 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature [4][10] Group 2: Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 1.77% to 4463.8, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.45% to 2960.7, the CSI 500 rose 2.17% to 7011.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.51% to 7447.1 [5] - Most industry sectors rose, with semiconductor, communication equipment, and other sectors leading the gains, while automobile service, real estate service, and brewing industries leading the losses [5] - After a brief adjustment, the stock index continued to rise driven by the technology sector, maintaining a strong trend. The current P/E ratios of the four major stock indices are above the 70% historical percentile, with reduced valuation attractiveness, but equity assets still have an advantage over the risk - free rate [6] - The risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 is 5.27, at the 56% historical percentile, indicating that equity assets still have allocation value [6] - As the key macro - event nodes in September approach, the stock index is expected to be more volatile, and the strategy is to lay out long positions on pullbacks [6] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' trading volume and open interest changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5] - The current contract's IF, IH, IC, and IM ascension/discount rates are 1.26%, 0.52%, 10.45%, and 18.69% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Trump's Fed appointment event and potential September rate cuts, along with a weakening dollar, support precious metal prices. However, the US economic data shows some resilience, like positive Q2 GDP and a decrease in weekly jobless claims. Today's US July PCE data may cause short - term fluctuations. Overall, short - term precious metal prices are still supported. Gold is recommended to hold long positions or increase long positions on pullbacks. Silver is expected to remain strong due to gold's rise and tariff factors, but its medium - term performance may be based on fundamentals, and caution is needed regarding its upside and duration [5] - Medium - to long - term: With expectations of Fed rate cuts, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, central bank gold purchases are likely to continue, and the medium - to long - term price center of gold will probably rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3395.28/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $38.84/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.7% to $3451.20/ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.7% to $39.50/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 783.22 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 0.8% to 9377 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.3% to 780.22 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.8% to 9345 yuan/kg [5] 3.2 Tracking of Price Spreads/Ratios - From August 27 to August 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5% to - 3 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 8.6% to - 32 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread decreased by 25.1% to 4.49 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread increased by 3.6% to - 603 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio decreased by 0.5% to 83.53, the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio decreased by 1.9% to 87.38, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 6.4% to 2.34 yuan/gram, and the AG2512 - 2510 spread decreased by 13.0% to 20 yuan/kg [5] 3.3 Position Data - As of August 27, 2025, compared with August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.27% to 962.5 tons, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged at 15274.6947 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.46% to 275277 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92% to 62687 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 7.36% to 212590 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79% to 68102 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96% to 21553 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 5.15% to 46549 contracts [5] 3.4 Inventory Data - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.34% to 39504 kg, SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.12% to 1178523 kg, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 38578730 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.54% to 511505129 troy ounces [5] 3.5 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.11, the US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 98.19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.55% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.47% to 4.24%, the VIX increased by 1.57% to 14.85, the S&P 500 increased by 0.24% to 6481.40, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.87% to 63.86 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are weakly oscillating due to significant declines under the influence of the commodity macro - environment [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5308 with a 0.34% daily change and - 1.56% weekly change; SP2511 was 5002 with a - 0.16% daily change and - 2.50% weekly change; SP2509 was 4946 with a - 0.36% daily change and - 2.94% weekly change [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5700 with a - 0.87% daily change and - 1.72% weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with a - 0.97% daily change and - 0.97% weekly change; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with a - 0.48% daily change and 0.72% weekly change [1] - **External Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars with a - 2.70% monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars with a 4.08% monthly change; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars with a 0.00% monthly change [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5884 with a - 2.68% monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182 with a 4.03% monthly change; Chilean Venus was 5073 with a 0.00% monthly change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Imports**: In July 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 64.6 tons, a - 4.72% monthly change from June; broad - leaf pulp imports were 135.1 tons, a - 5.85% monthly change from June [1] - **Domestic Production**: As of August 28, 2025, broad - leaf pulp production was 20.6 tons; chemical mechanical pulp production was 20.9 tons [1] - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, it was 208.4 tons, a 2.3% decline from the previous period, showing a de - stocking trend [1] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, it was 24.9 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Production**: As of August 28, 2025, double - offset paper production was 20.50 tons; coated paper production was 7.90 tons; tissue paper production was 28.18 tons; white cardboard production was 32.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 98 with a quantile level of 0.843; the Silver Star basis was 698 with a quantile level of 0.913 [1] - **Import Profits**: On August 28, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was - 184 with a quantile level of 0.339; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish import profit was - 2 with a quantile level of 0.629 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decline by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified August quotes with supply reductions [1] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, but mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel market is following market risk appetite and sentiment, with attention on short - term long opportunities around the blast furnace cost. There are still inventory build - up issues, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract represents the blast furnace static cost and provides support for iron - water production before the peak demand season is falsified [4]. - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a limited impact on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Although the basic supply - demand of double - silicon is resilient, the high inventory still poses a de - stocking pressure. The industry's average profit has been significantly repaired [5][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. Mid - line investors in long positions should wait for the first round of coke price cut news [7]. - The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments in the second half of the year and future capacity release expectations. However, the impact of policies on the steel sector may be greater than the price itself, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On August 28, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.79%; HC2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.78%; I2605 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.46%; J2605 closed at 1760 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.45%; JM2605 closed at 1222 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.50%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 917 yuan or 0.55%; HC2510 closed at 3385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.83%; I2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan or 1.74%; J2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan or 0.51%; JM2601 closed at 1175 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 0.90% [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis also had corresponding changes on August 28 [1]. Spot Market - On August 28, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280 yuan/ton, Tianjin rebar at 3240 yuan/ton, Guangzhou rebar at 3290 yuan/ton, Tangshan billet at 3020 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index at 103.9. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions also had different performances. Other spot prices such as those of coking coal and coke also had specific values and changes [1]. Steel - The steel market is still in a situation of inventory build - up, but the 3100 level of the rebar 10 - contract provides support. It is recommended to go short - term long around 3100 with the previous low as the stop - loss point, and conduct positive - spread rolling operations in the futures - cash market [4][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan" has limited impact. The supply - demand is resilient, but high inventory requires de - stocking. The industry profit has been repaired [5][6]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot trading atmosphere has weakened, the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and there are expectations of price cuts in September. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the impact of mine accidents spreads, and industrial customers can consider hedging opportunities on price rallies [7][9]. Iron Ore - The steel apparent demand is rising, but inventory build - up may continue. The iron ore price increase is restricted by supply increments, but policy impacts may be significant, and the support for the 01 - contract iron ore is still effective [8].

直纺短纤负荷(周) 90. 60% 91. 10% 0. 01 涤纶短纤产销 -3.00% 40. 00% 37.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 62.00% 62. 80% 0. 01 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 49.50% 49.00% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 (零收) 图日员22日■ T325纯涤动价格 =1.4D直线条短 舞想坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2 023-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2024-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 10000 2500 22500 4000 条棉纱利润 泽棉纱65/35 45 ...

Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices were 2918.3789, 4386.1266, and 7336.5036 respectively, with declines of 1.73%, 1.49%, and 1.87% [4]. - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices were 71.01 billion, 333.13 billion, and 416.76 billion respectively, with turnovers of 1976.54 billion yuan, 7850.98 billion yuan, and 6727.84 billion yuan [4]. - For the Shanghai 50 index options, the put - call ratio (PCR) of trading volume was 0.43, and the PCR of open interest was 0.61. For the CSI 300 index options, the PCR of trading volume was 0.55, and the PCR of open interest was 0.81. For the CSI 1000 index options, the PCR of trading volume was 0.81, and the PCR of open interest was 1.14 [4]. Volatility Analysis - Analyzed the historical volatility and volatility smile curve of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices, including the minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and the current values of different - period historical volatilities, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [9][11][12]. Overall Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to 3800.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.69%, the North 50 Index fell 2.6%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.13%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.74%, the Wind A500 Index fell 1.51%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 1.44% [12]. - A - share trading volume reached 3.2 trillion yuan throughout the day, up from 2.71 trillion yuan the previous day, hitting a new stage high [12]

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market is in a weak oscillation. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased due to Powell's speech, and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on imported furniture has led to pre - shipment rush. The short - term market still has room to decline [5]. - The current shipping market demand is continuously weak. The spot freight rate is under obvious pressure due to more overtime ships in late August. The market has turned to buyer - dominated, and there is no clear price - increase plan from shipping companies for now [6]. - The downward adjustment of OCEAN's freight rate in September is accelerating, which may put pressure on NSK to cut prices. The price of the 12 - contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [7]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Shipping Market Data - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1415, down 3.07% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1175, down 1.55%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 3.90% to 8.72% [4]. - For shipping derivatives, the prices of contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc. mostly declined, with the largest decline of 2.45%. The open interest of some contracts increased, and the month - spreads also changed slightly [4]. Market Influencing Factors - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium made the market expect interest rate cuts, and Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imported furniture led to pre - shipment rush [5]. - The increase in overtime ships in late August put pressure on spot freight rates. The competition for prices intensified, and shipping companies took measures such as adjusting surcharges and relaxing long - term contract booking restrictions to stimulate shipments [6]. - The planned suspension of voyages on the Trans - Pacific route before China's "Golden Week" in 2025 may increase temporarily in the coming weeks, and the current announced capacity reduction is lower than the historical benchmark [4]. - The low empty - sail rate on European routes in September and the sufficient supply of shipping capacity in the near future indicate no obvious signal of supply tightening in the short term. The congestion at European ports and the decrease in the rate of postponed sailings on the Asia - Europe route may affect subsequent cabin allocation and arrival cycles [6]. Shipping Company Strategies - Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) and Maersk (MSK) have announced their quotes for early September, maintaining the August level. Maersk will lower the peak - season surcharge to $50/100 in September and adjust the overweight surcharge policy [6]. - Some shipping companies are relaxing the restrictions on low - price long - term contract bookings to boost shipment volume [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals have weak support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 79,040 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, down 0.23%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, down 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 78,320 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,245 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,970 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6,710 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7,775 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,400 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,975 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 180 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,543 tons, down 713 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 46,846 tons, down 2,847 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 51,507 tons, up 3,224 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,190 tons, down 1,090 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,477 tons, up 787 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,454 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1,988 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 81,292 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2,946 yuan/ton [3] Industry Event - On August 22, a meeting of the lithium iron phosphate material branch council was held to discuss solutions to industry over - capacity and the low - carbon transformation path of the entire industry chain, with 13 participants including 5 listed companies or their subsidiaries [3] Supply and Demand Situation - Although there is a production cut at the Jiangxi mica end, overseas mines, overseas salt lakes, and domestic compliant mines have formed a supplement, showing a structural adjustment on the supply side. On the demand side, weekly production is basically stable, with products moving from upstream to downstream but limited actual consumption [3]