直纺短纤负荷(周) 92. 30% 93.00% (0. 01) 涤纶短纤产销 74. 00% 48.00% -26. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 65.00% (0. 01) 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 50% 46. 00% (0. 06) 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 T325纯涤动价格 (器块) 解日式SZEL■ = 1.4D直纺余短 会短坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 10000 2500 22500 4000 条梯少利润 泽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity sentiment has warmed up, the domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening of the basis. The basis of PTA has risen from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the Northeast PX plant has been postponed, and the Zhejiang reforming unit has also been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market. For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded, ethylene glycol prices have recovered, the macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the improvement of the commodity sentiment. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially Saudi Arabian plants, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and boost the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid rise in polyester prices, the profits of downstream weaving have shrunk, and the terminal load has declined significantly, which has a certain negative impact on the market. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 512.9 yuan/barrel on July 25, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on July 28, 2025, a decrease of 7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1208.7 yuan/ton to 1135.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.13 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3243 to 1.3089, a decrease of 0.0154; PTA主力期价 dropped from 4936 yuan/ton to 4812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4895 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased by 15.9 yuan/ton to 208.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 3.1 yuan/ton to 220.5 yuan/ton; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 30740 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped from 4545 yuan/ton to 4436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 83.21 yuan/ton to - 92.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.2 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 dropped from 4582 yuan/ton to 4499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX dropped from 874 to 851, a decrease of 23; the PX - naphtha spread dropped from 294 to 271, a decrease of 23 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY现金流 increased from - 260 to - 146, an increase of 114; POY150D/48F increased from 6710 to 6715, an increase of 5; FDY现金流 increased from - 470 to - 351, an increase of 119; FDY150D/96F increased from 7000 to 7010, an increase of 10; DTY现金流 increased from - 275 to - 151, an increase of 124; DTY150D/48F increased from 7895 to 7910, an increase of 15; 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6705 to 6675, a decrease of 30; 涤短现金流 increased from 85 to 164, an increase of 79; 半光切片 decreased from 5925 to 5875, a decrease of 50; 切片现金流 increased from - 145 to - 86, an increase of 59 [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: PX开工率 remained at 77.29%; PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%; MEG开工率 remained at 57.74%; polyester load decreased from 87.01% to 86.66%, a decrease of 0.35% [2]. - **Production and Sales Rates**: The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 29% to 30%, an increase of 1%; the staple - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 78% to 48%, a decrease of 30%; the slice production and sales rate decreased from 130% to 83%, a decrease of 47% [2]. 3.2 Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. An East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International: Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to be adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may fall short of expectations [4]. - Domestic: Market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market with loose quotes exerts pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation shows a marginal loosening, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Spot prices: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), it's 6120 yuan/ton with no change; in Yunnan (Kunming), 5915 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Yunnan (Dali), 5800 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Shandong (Rizhao), 6135 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 is 5845 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; SR01 is 5702 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 143, down 27 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - Exchange rates: RMB to USD is 7.1855, up 0.0060; Brazilian Real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian Rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.28, with no change; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 is 67.6, with no change [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a slight inventory reduction trend. Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment, and with expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily decrease of 1.51% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2605 was 5376 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a weekly increase of 1.19%; SP2509 was 5360 with a daily decrease of 2.90% and a weekly increase of 0.49% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 28, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 (unchanged daily and weekly), Russian coniferous pulp was 5450 with a daily decrease of 0.91% and a weekly increase of 2.83%, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 (unchanged daily and a weekly increase of 1.22%) [1] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: The foreign market quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% month - on - month to 500 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.68% month - on - month to 5884 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 10.60% month - on - month to 4101 dollars, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 5073 dollars [1] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons (a 6.09% decrease from May), and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 143.5 tons (a 10.98% increase from May). The shipment volume of W20 to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in July [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, with a 1.7% decrease. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend [2] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, with weak overall support for pulp [1] 3.3 Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 28, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 90 with a quantile level of 0.839, and the Silver Star basis was 560 with a quantile level of 0.869 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1] 3.4 Strategy - Pulp futures are currently greatly affected by the macro - environment. With expected intense commodity sentiment this week, it is recommended to observe cautiously [2]

| | | | | | | | 日本市场市场 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/29 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨) ...

现货端,受盘面持续拉涨影响,焦炭提涨节奏加快,周末焦企开启第四轮提涨,但考虑周五期货夜盘大幅 能有变,港口贸易准一焦炭报价1430(周环比+160),炼焦煤价格指数1168.3(周环比+133.4》;蒙媒方面,口岸通关回 升至高位,但下游投机意愿增强,市场报价位,下游市场采购情绪好转,甘其毛都口岸库存暂稳在300万吨以下，现甘其毛 都口岸:蒙5原煤1040(周环比+244),蒙5精煤1200(周环比+250),河北唐山:蒙5精煤1230(周环比+130)。期货 响可能不及预期。往后看,淡季黑色产业数据表现依然较好,铁水维持高位而国内煤矿复产偏慢，同时宏观"反内卷"题材 快速离场形成踩踏,市场反而可能因为预期差和期现资源的解锁出现更大的下探机会,近期行情波动较大,产业客户注意做 | | | | | | | | HE BE ROVER FR | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/28 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业 ...

| 震荡 < G > 、西南地区零星复产。2、多晶硅有减产预期。3、市场情绪高 | 工业硅 | 1、市场有光伏供给侧改革预期。2、市场情绪高。 | 多晶硅 | 看多 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、资源端扰动频发。2、下游短期补库量大,后续补库空间有 | 碳酸锂 | 有关 | 限。3、市场情绪高 | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 热卷 | 期市降温，资金行为可能会带来较大波动。 | | | 铁矿石 | 情绪降温,关注焦煤的企稳 | 震荡 | - END | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 锰硅 | 看多 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 88岁 | 任铁 | 看多 | 瑞包金属 | 看多 | 供给侧改革再启动,价格将继续偏强。 | 玻璃 | | 供给侧改革再启动,价格偏强为主。 | 年碱 | 看头 | 高层会议提及"反内卷"，市场期待15年供给侧改革牛市，虽然 | | | | | 从各方面都无法相提并论,不过鉴于交易层面短期无法证伪,盘 | 售煤 | 農汤 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.33% to 3593.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.22%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%, the North Securities 50 Index rose 0.52%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index increased 2.07%, the Wind All A Index dropped 0.13%, the Wind A500 Index declined 0.41%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 0.36%. A-share trading volume was 1.82 trillion yuan for the day, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [11] Index Quotes Closing Price and Fluctuation - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2795.5127, down 0.60%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4127.1634, down 0.53%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6706.6098, up 0.08% [4] Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of the Shanghai 50 Index was 51.69 billion, with a turnover of 1140.43 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index had a trading volume of 273.59 billion and a turnover of 4304.46 billion yuan; the CSI 1000 Index had a trading volume of 264.00 billion and a turnover of 3631.40 billion yuan [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Option Trading Volume - The trading volume of Shanghai 50 Index options was 3.43 million contracts, including 2.35 million call options and 1.07 million put options, with a PCR of 0.46; the CSI 300 Index options had a trading volume of 7.29 million contracts, including 4.53 million call options and 2.76 million put options, with a PCR of 0.61; the CSI 1000 Index options had a trading volume of 15.39 million contracts, including 8.99 million call options and 6.40 million put options, with a PCR of 0.71 [4] Option Open Interest - The open interest of Shanghai 50 Index options was 6.73 million contracts, including 4.39 million call options and 2.34 million put options, with a PCR of 0.53; the CSI 300 Index options had an open interest of 18.37 million contracts, including 10.74 million call options and 7.63 million put options, with a PCR of 0.71; the CSI 1000 Index options had an open interest of 23.87 million contracts, including 12.24 million call options and 11.63 million put options, with a PCR of 0.95 [4] Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 Volatility - Includes historical volatility analysis and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curve analysis [9] CSI 300 Volatility - Includes historical volatility analysis and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curve analysis [9] CSI 1000 Volatility - Includes historical volatility analysis and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curve analysis [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic near - month soybean purchases are mostly covered, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The near - month basis is expected to remain under pressure. M09 is expected to be range - bound, and for M01, it is recommended to buy on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to China - US policies [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on July 25 was 19, - 81 in Tianjin, - 161 in both Rizhao and Zhangjiagang, - 141 in Dongguan, - 121 in both Zhanjiang and Fangcheng. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 155, with a decrease of - 103 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - RM9 being - 4 and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong being 346 [6][7] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The USD - CNY exchange rate was 104.00 with no change. There are data on Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil mills' soybean inventories, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventories, etc. [7] 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply: This week, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%. In the next two weeks, Kansas is expected to be dry, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but other areas have normal weather, generally conducive to soybean growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal stockpiling is expected to last until September; the shipping in China from October to January is slow [7] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, and soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance. The pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal is normal [8] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market mainly traded on the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week as no incremental policies were further introduced. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies from the July Politburo meeting will signal a new round of supply - side reform and focuses on the policy priorities for the second - half economic work [7]. - With the short - term ebb of hot topics, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down in the short term, presenting a volatile pattern. The market also pays attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the Sino - US trade consultation on Wednesday [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - **Market Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.52 with a - 13.41bp change, DR007 at 1.65 with a 7.64bp change, GC001 at 1.35 with a 26.00bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3.00bp to 4.40 [4]. - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 4000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. With 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 2000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing, the net injection was 1095 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity has tightened recently, with DR001 rising above 1.5% and DR007 above 1.65% [5]. Stock Index Market - **Market Data**: The CSI 300 closed at 4127 with a - 0.53% change, the SSE 50 at 2796 with a - 0.60% change, etc. The trading volumes and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69%, the SSE 50 rose 1.12%, etc. The daily average trading volume increased by 2778.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the Shenwan primary industry index, construction materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), etc. led the gains, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [6]. - **Market Situation**: The market was mainly driven by the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week. Stocks were mainly hyped around the Yarlung Zangbo River project, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and Hainan Free Trade Zone themes [7]. Futures Premium and Discount - **Premium and Discount Data**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 2.03%, IH's current - month contract had a discount of - 0.06%, IC's current - month contract had a premium of 11.71%, and IM's current - month contract had a premium of 11.00% [8].