1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, methanol prices in many regions increased slightly. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were low, and downstream and traders' willingness to restock at low prices increased, leading to higher enterprise auction transaction prices. Positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up spot prices. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after restocking at low prices. The market trend depends on downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday. In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Methanol prices: Prices in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan to 2430 yuan, and in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan to 2255 yuan. Other regions such as Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. International methanol prices in Southeast Asia, Northwest Europe, and the United States also remained stable [1]. - Associated product prices: The price of acetic acid decreased by 20 yuan to 2290 yuan, and MTBE decreased by 50 yuan to 5100 yuan. The prices of formaldehyde in Shandong, dimethyl ether, and methane chloride remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Supply - Domestic production: It decreased by 1700 to 272788 [1]. - Domestic operating rate: It decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 84.73%, while the international operating rate remained at 70.07% [1]. - Imports: The arrival volume remained at 30.14 [1]. 3.3 Inventory - Enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 341550 and 670500 respectively [1]. 3.4 Demand - The order backlog remained at 240700 [1]. 3.5 Operating Rates of Downstream Products - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, wax dewaxing, chlorides, and MTBE remained unchanged [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil market dropped significantly, and the chemical industry followed the decline in crude oil prices. Polyester downstream load remained at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, but polyester's actual output reached a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming more abundant, and the market's spot arrival volume has increased. Due to profit compression, polyester's willingness to replenish inventory is low [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Spot Price Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 4890 to 4835, a change of -55 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4370 to 4365, a change of -5 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6805 to 6770, a change of -35 [2] Closing Price Indicators - PTA closing price decreased from 4746 to 4710, a change of -36 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4288 to 4277, a change of -11 [2] Spread and Basis Indicators - Short - fiber basis increased from 150 to 177, a change of 27 [2] - 8 - 9 spread decreased from 120 to 116, a change of -4 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical spread decreased from 985 to 950, a change of -35 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 355 to 371, a change of 15.70 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3805 to 3840, a change of 35 [2] Price and Profit Indicators of Related Products - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16300 to 16350, a change of 50 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14980 to 14975, a change of -5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1126 to 1201, a change of 75.10 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 63.00% to 46.00%, a change of -17.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is significant, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,300 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,700 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,700 yuan with a decline of 0.34%; 2508 is 63,500 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2509 is 63,280 yuan with a decline of 0.75%; 2510 is 63,180 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2511 is 63,020 yuan with a decline of 0.63% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 653 yuan with a daily increase of 44 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan with a daily increase of 12.5 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,705 yuan with a daily increase of 45 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,640 yuan with a daily increase of 120 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,555 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan with a change of 1000 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract is 220 yuan with a change of 140 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second continuous contract is 320 yuan with a change of - 40 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 21,036 tons with a decrease of 1844 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 61,667 yuan, and the profit is - 228 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 66,522 yuan, and the profit is - 6597 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]

数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIG 国兴期 权教据日报 CI + m = =: F0251925 2025/7/4 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2724. 5488 | | 0. 07 | | 599. 17 | | 32. 27 | | | 沪深300 | 3968. 0676 | | 0. 62 | | 2696. 10 | | 141.00 | | | 中证1000 | 6342. 638 | | 0.53 | | 2704. 92 | | 213.98 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交望 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 日成交堂 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) | 成交里 | 成交里 | PCR ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Aluminum**: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - **Alumina**: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Zinc**: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - **Nickel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - **Tin**: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - **Coking Coal**: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Soybeans**: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Pulp**: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - **Log**: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Fuel，Oil**: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Asphalt**: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - **Short Fiber**: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - **Styrene**: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - **PVC**: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - **VCM**: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - **LPG**: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - **Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route**: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].

盖色金属数据日报 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(石轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 60-6700 10-570 as 2008 2008 2008 200 | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75r 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 【钢材】续涨动能尚可,周数据好转也添了一点油 4000 600 周四黑色板块依然算是坚挺,盘面延续增仓反弹,期盘续涨动能尚可;钢联周度数据显示淡季累库幅度和需求掉的节奏都没 3000 有失速,暂时托住了市场的信心。"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货 400 成交及投机需求的放量,观察持续性;我们更倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自 2000 利好并不能持续太久。值得关注的是,黑色板块品种的基差近期持续收缩, ...

2025/7/4 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 | | 水平;未来两周美豆天气无明显异常;需求方面,从存档推断,生猪供应在11月前预期稳步增加;禽类存栏维持高位;豆粕性价比较 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高，饲用添比提升，提货居于高位：部分地区小麦替代玉米，减少对蛋白的用量。库存方面，截至上周五，国内大豆和豆粕继续累库, | | | | 目前大豆库存居于历史同期高位,豆粕库存仍然居于历史同期低位,饲料企业豆粕库存天数继续上升。 | | | 结 | 整体来说,中美贸易谈判预期下,美豆偏强,巴西贴水小幅下跌。国内部分油厂出现催提现象,基差偏弱。屈期关注中美贸易谈判 | | | | 进展,建议观望。 | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | | ਜੇ | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中10任 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Group 3: Summary of Lithium Compound Information - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,100 yuan, with a daily increase of 450 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan, with a daily increase of 450 yuan [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 futures contract is 64,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.07%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 64,160 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.82%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 64,080 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.91%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,800 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.76%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,720 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92% [1] Group 4: Summary of Lithium Ore Information - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 652 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 765 yuan, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1315 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4325 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5150 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan [1][2] Group 5: Summary of Cathode Material Information - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan, with a daily increase of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,520 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,505 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan, with no change [2] Group 6: Summary of Price Difference Information - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1980 yuan, with a change of 330 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 80 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 360 yuan [2] Group 7: Summary of Inventory Information - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 22,880 tons, with a decrease of 300 tons [2] Group 8: Summary of Profit Estimation Information - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 61,596 yuan, and the profit is - 355 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 66,176 yuan, and the profit is - 6447 yuan [3] Group 9: Summary of Industry Policy Information - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As Africa's top lithium producer, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage miners to process more domestically [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 3, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5306, up 0.42% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5048, up 0.76% day - on - day and down 0.24% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5094, up 0.43% day - on - day and 0.55% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.84% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - On June 20, Arauco cut the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, down 2.0% [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1] Demand - This week, the production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 26, at the 0.756 quantile; the Silver Star basis was 806, at the 0.951 quantile [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, at the 0.65 quantile; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, at the 0.187 quantile [1]