II GER期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 l现货价格: 12月上旬MSK报价2500、HPL报价2350; 00CL报价2300、CMA排价3550、EM3报价3100; ONE报价2450、MSC 观 报价2450; 逻辑:后市走势将呈现震荡偏弱格局,核心驱动因素包括: 12月运价落地成色:若马士基等头部船司维持2400-2600美元/FEU的报价区间,且未出现大面积爆舱,则EC近月合约 继续承压。 1月涨价函数行力度:船司计划在1月再次发起涨价,但若货量持续疲软或船司报价分化加剧,涨价落地难度将增 大,02合约上行空间受限。 货量季节性变化:12月下旬至1月上旬为传统旺季,需观察是否出现阶段性爆舱(如11月底最后一周),若货量超预 期,或短暂提振运价。 策略: 观望(12合约逐步失去交易价值)。 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons ...

Report Summary Core View - The report provides a daily data analysis of stock index options, including market trends, trading volume, open interest, and volatility of major indices such as SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3]. Index Performance - SSE 50 closed at 2969.6171, down 0.09% with a trading volume of 0.25 billion and a turnover of 850.31 billion yuan [3]. - CSI 300 closed at 4526.6616, up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.06 billion and a turnover of 3418.32 billion yuan [3]. - CSI 1000 closed at 6616.3421, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 200.68 million and a turnover of 7334.2097 billion yuan [3]. Option Trading Volume and Open Interest - For SSE 50 options, the call option trading volume was 3.70 million, the put option trading volume was 1.87 million, the call option open interest was 6.24 million, and the put option open interest was 2.55 million [3]. - For CSI 300 options, the call option trading volume was 4.48 million, the put option trading volume was 2.89 million, the call option open interest was 17.16 million, and the put option open interest was 7.06 million [3]. - For CSI 1000 options, the call option trading volume was 17.35 million, the put option trading volume was 9.32 million, the call option open interest was 29.74 million, and the put option open interest was 8.04 million [3]. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and volatility cone for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their volatility smile curves for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. Overall Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to 3888.6, down 1.67% monthly; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.85%, down 2.95% monthly; the ChiNext Index rose 0.7%, down 4.23% monthly; the North - Star 50 Index rose 0.39%, down 12.32% monthly; the STAR 50 Index rose 1.25%, down 6.24% monthly; the Wind All - A Index rose 0.77%, down 2.22% monthly; the Wind A500 Index rose 0.44%, down 2.71% monthly; the CSI A500 Index rose 0.46%, down 2.56% monthly. A - share trading volume was 1.6 trillion yuan, compared to 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/1 | 指标 | | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 96 | 21 | 1600 | ===== 18/19 == | | - - - - - - 19/20 - - - - - 23/24 | == - 24/25 | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 | 56 | 21 | 1200 | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -24 | -9 | 400 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -14 | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | -400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | | ...

逢高试空 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 库存再次回升，上方价格压力明确 投资观点： 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025—11-28 专题报告 ⚫ 供给（中性）：近期发运到港基本符合预期，供给端较为稳定。 ⚫ 投资建议 ⚫ 风险提示 资料来源：钢联数据、国贸期货研究院 从业资格号：F0286636 投资咨询号：Z0010820 分析师：薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询号：Z0022680 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 铁矿现货成交 ma5 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 2022 2023 2024 2025 重点关注国内外宏观政策和产业政策的变动，以及产业链的突发事 件。 | 铁矿石（I） | | --- | 分析师：张宝慧 ⚫ 需求（中性）：本期钢厂铁水产量小幅下滑至 234.68 万吨（- 1.6），主要南方地区部分钢厂亏损加剧叠加需求走若导致钢厂检 修。钢厂盈利比例延续下滑，环比下滑 2.6%至 35.06%。根据检修计 划预计铁水仍将小幅下滑。 ⚫ 库存（偏弱）：本期 47 港日均疏港量上涨 1.67 万吨至 345.06 万吨 的高位，压港船舶下滑下，港 ...

| 工工程度 | | | 1 1 1 5 1 2 7 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业分符号:日04517 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融。 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 罕间。 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氢化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | | | | | 格继 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）短期基层农户惜售，但短期惜售或意味着卖压的后置，建议关注12-1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表 现良好，整体维持丰产预期。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，截至2025年10月，全国工业饲料产量2907万吨，环比减少4.2%，同比增长3.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 38.0%，同比下降2.7个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-12-01 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 焦煤焦炭 产 业 结 构 相 对 平 衡 ， 等 待 宏 观 助 力 首 轮 提 降 登 场 ， 盘 面 计 价 3 - 4 轮 提 降 预 期 03 铁矿石 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 库 存 再 次 回 升 ， 上 方 价 格 压 力 较 大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：产业结构相对平衡，等待宏观助力 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 铁水产量延续小降，当周铁水产量-1.6至234.68wt；废钢日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "buying on dips for single - side trading" and "waiting and seeing for arbitrage" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Thailand floods and the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season have increased the bullish sentiment for rubber. Currently, raw material prices are strongly supported, mid - stream inventories have slightly increased, downstream demand has remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level. In the short term, the sentiment in the commodity market is weak, and it may maintain a range - bound performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In the domestic产区, Yunnan's raw material acquisition volume has weakened, and Hainan's raw material output has decreased. In the Thai产区, the northeast is in the peak production period with falling cup - rubber prices, while the south is affected by floods, with firm glue prices. The situation in the Vietnamese产区 is similar to that in the Thai northeast [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points month - on - month and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year; that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month - on - month and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the SHFE also increased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have widened. The former is due to capital speculation on Shanghai rubber, and the latter is affected by the news of expanding the delivery products of NR and other factors [3] - **Profit**: It is a mixed situation. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex has deepened losses, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber has changed little [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is in the upper - middle position, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. Near the end of the year and during the contract roll - over period, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, so the commodity market mostly maintains a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Rubber showed a strong and volatile trend this week. The domestic产区 is entering the production - reduction and rubber - cutting season, and there is a risk of floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam, increasing the expectation of supply tightening. Supported by high raw material prices, the 1 - 5 month spread of Shanghai rubber has strengthened, showing a contango structure. As of November 28, the RU main contract closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton (+1.12%) week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fluctuated slightly [9] - **Disk Position**: The position transfer of the RU main contract has accelerated, with a decrease in RU positions and an increase in NR positions [17][24] - **Disk Spread**: The RU - NR spread has widened significantly [31] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: There has been excessive precipitation in southern Thailand [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have been firm [49] - **Production in Main - Producing Countries**: The cumulative export volume of ANRPC in September was 8.64 million tons (+3.62%). From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber (+17.27%) [72][91] - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory has slightly increased. As of November 23, 2025, it was 1.08 million tons, up 18,000 tons (1.7%) month - on - month [98] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires has rebounded, while that of semi - steel tires has declined. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%. It is expected to increase, but sales pressure will limit the increase [107][115] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In October, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, and heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In October, the production and sales of automobiles were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, and heavy - truck sales were about 93,000 [122][132] - **Tire Exports**: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons (+3.8%), with the cumulative growth rate narrowing. In October, the export volume and value of rubber tires decreased year - on - year [133] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk rubber has been in a loss [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber has rebounded [152]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆大幅下跌后预计震荡运行 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-1 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆大幅下跌后预计震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据悉，智利Arauco公司11月阔叶浆明星报价550美元/吨，本色浆金星报价620美元/吨。2025年11月中国纸浆产量为234.2万吨，环比下 降1.7%。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主流纸厂均发布新一轮涨价函，生活用纸价格略有上涨；观测后续落实情况。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2025年11月27日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：217.2万吨，较上期去库0.1万吨，环比下降0.05%，库存量在本周期整体变动不 大，趋势呈现小幅去库的走势。 | | 投资观点 | 阔 ...