01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 烧碱 :现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为85.0%，较上 周环比+0.4%。分区域来看，华北、华中、华东负荷均有上升，其中华北+0.5%至80.5%，其中山东+0.7%至92.9%，其它大区基本稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2)粘胶短纤行业产能利用率91.29%，较上周+1.20%。本周粘胶装置平稳运行，但由于上周部分粘胶装置检 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 市场情绪回暖，股指震荡修复 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-01 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PMI数据喜忧参半。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，供需小幅修复，出口指数显著上涨，供需缺口收 | | 经济和企 业盈利 | 偏空 | 窄至0.8pct。但非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值50.1%。 | | | | 促销费政策陆续推出。六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，《方案》提出，到2027年，消费品供给结构明 | | 宏观政策 | 中性偏多 | 显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the three major monthly reports are pessimistic about demand forecasts. The long - term supply - demand situation remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in October 2025. Overall, the supply situation is bearish [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with an overall neutral view [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: As of the week ending November 21, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased. The inventory situation is neutral [3]. - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level, and Saudi Arabia's production has reached a high level in recent years, showing a bearish trend [3]. - **Geopolitics (Short Term)**: The signals from the US and Russia regarding the Venezuela and Ukraine issues put downward pressure on oil prices, showing a bearish trend [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short Term)**: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, and the situation is neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish on the oil market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Rebound and short. Arbitrage: Wait and see [3]. PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices fluctuated. The possible Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and OPEC+ production increase operations pressured the oil market. US refinery operating rates remained high, but macro - demand growth slowed. WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil showed different price trends [6]. - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - month spread strengthened [23]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, strengthened [26][38]. PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreased. Different organizations' data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production vary. The US weekly crude oil production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased [59][84]. - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased, and Cushing inventories decreased. Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [85][94]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand rebounded, and refinery operating rates increased. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume decreased, but the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased [112][120]. - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December decreased, and the US dollar index rebounded [134]. - **CFTC Positioning**: The speculative net short position of WTI crude oil increased [138].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 区间震荡，关注南美叙事 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 【粕类周报】 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美叙事 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA目前对2025/26 年度美豆的预估值为单产 53 蒲式耳 / 英亩，期末库存 2.9 亿蒲（对应库消比 6.7%）。后续美豆单产或因 8-9 月产区降雨偏少进 | | | | 一步下调；（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。至11月22日，巴西大豆播种率为78%，上周为69%，去年同期为83.3%，五年 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 均值为75.8%。根据BAGE，截至11月26日，阿根廷大豆播种进度36%，上周值24.6%，去年同期45%。短期天气无明显干旱问 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：1 2月运价落地不佳，E C弱势震荡 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 现货运价 利空 12月上旬MSK报价2200、HPL报价2150；OOCL报价2400、CMA报价2650；ONE报价2200； 政治经济 利空 【1】马士基、赫伯罗特表示，目前没有具体时间调整"Gemini"双子星东西向航线。鉴于加沙停火进展，我们密切关注该地区事态发展。目前，我们没有 具体时间表将"Gemini"双子星东西向航线改为经由红海航行。【2】CMA CGM 达飞对全面重返红海航线一事拒绝置评，但实际上从船期表上看达飞自营 船回程可以说90%全面复航，不过关于达飞自营船复航这个因素已基本PRICE IN。更重要的西向头程复航目前没有增加。【3】苏伊士运河管理局主席 Osama Rabie 接受采访表示，苏伊士运河预计将在 2026 年底实现船舶通行量全面恢复、收入正常化。【4】中美竞争正出现一个新的战场 —— 这一战场 正在影响第三国的贸易协议。彭博社报道称，北京方面已经向马来西亚和柬埔寨表达了对其近期与华盛顿达成协议的关切，并警告应尊 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/1 | 指标 | | 11月28日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 96 | 21 | 1600 | ===== 18/19 == | | - - - - - - 19/20 - - - - - 23/24 | == - 24/25 | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 | 56 | 21 | 1200 | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -24 | -9 | 400 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -14 | 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | -400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 进入淡季，供需双减 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：进入淡季，供需双减 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 利空 | （1）本周沥青市场供给呈增长态势，核心驱动力来自炼厂复产与进口补充。产能利用率较上期有所提升，华北、山东及华东地区部分主力炼厂相继恢 | | | | 复生产，成为产量增加的主要支撑，而其他区域炼厂运行相对稳定，部分地区因间歇停产或转产，产能利用率略有波动。 | | | | （2）检修方面，本周沥青装置检修规模收缩，部分前期停车炼厂复产带动检修损失量下降，进一步释放供应潜力。进口端同样呈现增量，叠加国内产 | | | | 量增长，本周总供应量实现明显提升。 | | | | （3）下周供应仍有微增预期，尽管山东部分炼厂计划转产渣油，但华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the anticipated supply gap of PX. The PX price is supported by gasoline blending value and the stable recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export prospects of polyester products are optimistic due to positive trade policy adjustments in some overseas countries [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors, with the PX - naphtha spread expanding to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is under pressure, slightly above $100, limiting the space for increasing PX production to improve efficiency [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. The export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are still optimistic [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons this week, and the market is slightly destocking [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis continues to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around $200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a relatively low - to - neutral level. With the decline in the reformer unit profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - policy factor is neutral. Trump announced that the US will take land - based actions against so - called Venezuelan "drug traffickers" [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the market is expected to be mainly stronger [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it's advisable to wait and watch, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Trump claimed to launch a strike against Venezuela, and Russia will discuss the plan details of the Geneva negotiation with the US next week [6][9]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline demand is seasonally weakening, and the gasoline cracking profit is also weakening. Overseas refined oil markets show weakening demand and significant regional differences. North American refinery operating rates have risen to 90%, higher than the five - year average. European gasoline spot prices are under pressure, and regional supply may increase as European refineries gradually resume work [10][17][25]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply and Market Expectation**: The PX supply is shrinking, and the strong market expectation affects the market. The domestic reformer oil supply is continuously tight, and the loads of refineries in Asia are also decreasing, but some are expected to resume production by the end of November [28][45]. - **Arbitrage Space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened [38]. - **Profit and Production Adjustment**: The profit of selective disproportionation has recovered, but the disproportionation profit is suppressed by pure benzene. Some large - scale aromatic hydrocarbon units have reduced or shut down production due to poor economics. The PX - naphtha spread is maintained at $245/ton, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has narrowed to $105/ton [46][52][59]. - **Price and Demand**: The PX price is stable but tight. The demand is generally healthy, especially the PTA export has new opportunities. The PX price trend is strong, which is significantly beneficial to the PTA market [59][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol port inventory is at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline in coal prices, the ethylene glycol price lacks effective support. New device production increases supply pressure, but the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream demand [81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit remains strong [83]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, and the weaving load is optimistic. The export demand may boost the market [91][93].

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 =2017 == 2018 == 2020 2016 · 0 2021 · =2022 == 2023 = =2024 = -2025 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 4月 5月 6月 7月 9月 3月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 SR1701-SR1705 = =SR1801-SR1805 =SR1901-SR1905 =SR2001-SR2005 SR2101-SR2105 -- SR2201-SR2205 -- SR2301-SR2301-SR2305 -- SR2401-SR2405 SR1901 = SR2101 SR1701 SR1801 -- ·SR2001 = SR2501-SR2505 == SR26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. Report's Core View - Gasoline cracking margins have declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market has remained strong amidst multiple factors. The increase in PX prices is mainly supported by the value of gasoline blending and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The PX - naphtha spread has further widened to $256, while the spread between PX and mixed xylene remains under pressure, just slightly above $100, limiting the space to increase efficiency by increasing PX production. Domestic rumors of unit overhauls are positive for PX, and some South Korean producers are even considering taking offline toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, improving export prospects and boosting PX procurement sentiment. The strong PX price significantly benefits the PTA market. Currently, the PTA supply has tightened slightly, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, with the overall load maintained above 90%. Thanks to the positive adjustments of trade policies in some overseas countries, the export inquiries for polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export outlook is optimistic. The costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow suit [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4610 to 4635, a change of 25; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3900 to 3882, a change of - 18; PTA closing price increased from 4632 to 4700, a change of 68; MEG closing price increased from 3873 to 3885, a change of 12; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6365 to 6390, a change of 25; short - fiber basis decreased from 140 to 134, a change of - 6; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 80 to 110, a change of - 30; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 965 to 990, a change of 25; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5707 to 5731, a change of 24; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5707 to 5731, a change of 24; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5807 to 5831, a change of 24; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 459 to 468, a change of 9; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3935 to 3910, a change of - 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14480 to 14495, a change of 15; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1607 to 1584, a change of - 22; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7080; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 632 to 617, a change of - 15; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7580 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 60 to 6250. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, and the prices of traders increased slightly. Downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases, and the factory sales volume was limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6140 - 6460 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6260 - 6580 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6190 - 6350 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. Polyester bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side offers followed the increase, with the market negotiation focus rising [2]. Industry Operating Rates - The direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber sales volume increased from 46.00% to 53.00%, a change of 7.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].