Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the off - season of demand and high - inventory situation, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 5, 2025, SP2601 was 5276, down 0.08% day - on - day and up 0.42% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5040, down 0.51% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5074, up 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 5, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden was 4020, unchanged [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in June 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.3% from May. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from May 22 to July 3, 2025 [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period. The delivery - warehouse inventory also had some changes during the period [1]. - **Demand**: From May 22 to July 3, 2025, the production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed small - scale fluctuations, with a slight overall increase this week. However, the finished - paper prices were continuously low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.795; the Silver Star basis was 826, with a quantile level of 0.956 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 5, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场缺乏驱动，橡胶震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-07-07 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场缺乏驱动，橡胶震荡表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）国内产区：本周海南产区受持续降雨天气影响，岛内新胶生产释放进度缓慢听闻全岛日 收胶量大致在1000-2000吨左右。云南产区持续性降雨阻碍 割胶作业，胶水产量有限，原料供应趋紧推动收购价格上行。（2）泰国产区：目前泰国整体原料供应稳定上量，受制于浓乳需求疲软拖拽，胶水价格持 | | | | 续下跌， 干胶厂仍有加价抢原料生产，杯水价差缩窄。（3）越南产区：越南产区已进入季节性增产周期，随着本周降水量较上周呈现明显回落，天气改 | | | | 善促使割胶作业逐 步恢复，原料供应量实现环比增长，原 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：现货运价震荡，关注新一轮关税 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）MSK月初爆舱可配月中船期；OA线下畅接；PA联盟舱位充裕。 | | | | （2）欧洲月初空班较多，舱位减少，舱位紧张，价格上调。 | | 现货运价 | 中性 | （3）7月上旬报价：整体2900-3600，中枢3200；GEMINI：MSK报价2900-3000，HPL报价3250；OA：CMA报价3450（环比-100），OOCL报价3500， | | | | EMC报价3700。 | | | | （4）7月下旬报价：GEMINI：MSK报价2950，HPL报价3850；OA：CMA报价3950，OOCL报价3500；PA：ONE报价4050。 | | | | 【1】特朗普：计划征收从60%到70%到10%到20%不等的关税。相关国家将于8月1日开始征收关税。 | | | | 【2】特朗普的助手们设想在总统访华期间带上多位企业首席执行官同行。【3】目前，利率期货的价格反映出美联 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 基本面有支撑，市场有题材 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-07 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.78万吨，比26日+0.64%。行业开工率为75.68%，比26日+0.68个百分点；行业产能利用率为78.88%， 比26日+0.5个百分点。本周2条产线点火，尚未出玻璃，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，所以周度产量环比增加。下周暂无生产线点火或者放水 | | | | 计划，1条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，预计下周周度产量环比增长。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 淡季需求整体承压，但短期保有韧性，产销尚可。中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6908.5万重箱，环比-13.1万重箱，环比-0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 美国非农打压降息预期，有色存在回调风险 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-7-7 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 | 01 | 02 | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属价格监测 | 铜（CU） | 锌（ZN） | | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | | 镍（NI） | 工业硅（SI） | 碳酸锂（LC） | | 不锈钢（SS) | 多晶硅（PS） | | 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-07 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 02 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢："反内卷" 催化短暂快涨，期价重回升水 焦煤焦炭 " 反内卷 " 催 化 短 暂 快 涨 ， 期 价 重 回 升 水 " 反内卷 " 催 化 市 场 情 绪 ， 但 煤 炭 复 产 预 期 渐 起 03 铁矿石 " 反内卷 " 情 绪 冲 高 ， 铁 矿 基 差 短 期 触 底 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量本周小降，长流程钢厂利润依然偏好，继续印证市场化减停产的期望不高； ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所 " 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/7/7 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.31 | -0.10 | DR007 | 1.42 | -4.52 | | हू | GC001 | 1.43 | 28.00 | GC007 | 1.49 | 0.00 | | ਜ | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | -0.90 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | ਜੋ | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -1.20 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | -0.40 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | 0.20 | 10年期美债 | 4.35 | 5.00 | 回顾:上周央行公开市场共开展了6522亿元逆回购操作,央行公开市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 原料端支撑不足，BR基本面弱势延续 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-7-7 分析师：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 助理分析师：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：原料端支撑不足，B R基本面弱势延续 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 10 48 万吨（ 1 ），产能利用率为 70 91 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 69 万吨（ 0 ），产能利用率为 66 98 %； 66% 28% | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）短期国内丁二烯供方货源积极外销，市场供应较为充裕，行情下跌导致下游买盘谨慎，成交气氛偏弱。山东益华顺丁橡胶装置停车，山东部分民营 | | | | 顺丁装置负荷提升，整体供应面变动有限。 | | | | （1）半钢胎方面，周期内月份交替，6月底代理商有补货行为，带动替换市场渠道走货稍有增 ...