1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion [2]. - The demand side remains robust, with high PTA operation rates in China, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics [2]. - New polyester installations drive high polyester operating loads, maintaining high PTA consumption. Market inventory - building intentions increase, and the basis strengthens rapidly. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback. PTA prices are significantly boosted under the enthusiastic sentiment of commodities, and the costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators 3.1 Price and Spread Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5065 to 5100, a change of 35; MEG domestic price increased from 3687 to 3694, a change of 7 [2]. - PTA closing price rose from 5122 to 5144, an increase of 22; MEG closing price rose from 3817 to 3847, an increase of 30 [2]. - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 to 6640, a change of 20; the short - fiber basis decreased from 120 to 86, a change of - 34 [2]. - The 2 - 3 spread increased from 6 to 8, a change of 2; the polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1345 to 1365, a change of 20 [2]. - The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filling polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all increased by 28, while the foreign - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 795 [2]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 462 to 458, a change of - 4 [2]. - The price of T32S pure polyester yarn increased from 10380 to 10400, a change of 20; the T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3760 [2]. - The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16370; the cotton 328 price increased from 15240 to 15280, a change of 40 [2]. - The polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1220 to 1192, a change of - 28 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7216 to 7215, a change of - 1; the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 450 to 417, a change of - 33 [2]. - The price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged at 7775 [2]. 3.2 Operating Rate and Sales - to - Production Ratio - The direct - spun staple fiber operating rate (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio increased from 54.00% to 55.00%, a change of 1.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]. 3.3 Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 30 to 6564. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories mainly negotiated prices, while trader prices slightly decreased. Downstream buyers only made rigid - demand purchases, and on - site transactions were light [2]. - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation prices of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets were 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining flat compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated slightly. Most supply - side offers remained unchanged. The market negotiation atmosphere was cautious, and downstream terminal demand was relatively stable, with the market negotiation center temporarily stable [2].

Report Overview - This is an index option data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute, covering market trends, trading volumes, and volatility analysis of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and China Securities 1000 indices on December 30, 2025 [3][5] Market Trends Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.4%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.01%, the Wind All - A rose 0.13%, the Wind A500 rose 0.28%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.32% [5] - The trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 2.16 trillion yuan, the same as the previous day [5] Index Details | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | Turnover (Billion) | |--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai 50 | 38.54 | 0.06 | 3036.5523 | 1131.75 | | Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 | 4651.2818 | 0.26 | 4571.85 | 180.37 | | China Securities 1000 | 7597.299 | 0.04 | 4680.24 | 263.33 | [3] Option Trading Volume and Open Interest Shanghai 50 - Call option trading volume was 2.51 million contracts, put option trading volume was 1.53 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.64. The open interest of call options was 3.11 million contracts, and that of put options was 2.09 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.67 [3] Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 - Call option trading volume was 9.80 million contracts, put option trading volume was 6.08 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.61. The open interest of call options was 9.87 million contracts, and that of put options was 7.26 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.74 [3] China Securities 1000 - Call option trading volume was 12.30 million contracts, put option trading volume was 8.84 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.72. The open interest of call options was 14.17 million contracts, and that of put options was 14.59 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.97 [3] Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 - Historical volatility analysis includes historical volatility cones, with different percentile values and current values presented. The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of next - month at - the - money options [3][4] Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 - Similar to the Shanghai 50, historical volatility analysis and volatility smile curves are provided [3][4] China Securities 1000 - Historical volatility analysis and volatility smile curves are also presented, with different percentile values and current values for historical volatility [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic reports of customs control on soybean imports are bullish for near-term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics and the auction of imported soybeans after New Year's Day. US soybean exports are weak, and there is currently no obvious speculative driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure in the future, and the M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. Overall, the market is expected to be stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On December 30th, the Dalian basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 382, down 24; the Tianjin basis was 362, down 4; the Rizhao basis was 322, down 24. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 342, down 14 [4] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 94, up 6 [4] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69, down 9; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 536, down 10; the spot spread (Guangdong) was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread on the main contract was 375, down 12 [5] International and Domestic Inventory Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9605, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 117.00 cents per bushel, up 2. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market was 152 yuan per ton [5] - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historically high level for the same period. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply remains high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory held by feed enterprises increased [7][8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared to 88% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. According to BAGE, as of December 3rd, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 4.7%, compared to 36% last week and 50% in the same period last year. There are no obvious short - term weather problems in the forecast. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to experience seasonal inventory reduction. There are rumors that customs have delayed the release of soybeans for 25 days, increasing concerns about domestic soybean supply in the first quarter of next year. Domestic auctions of imported soybeans have been held, with high transaction premiums. Attention should be paid to subsequent auction results [7] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the shipping industry is to wait and see [9] 2. Core Viewpoint - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabins and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, and the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious. Freight rates may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure depending on demand sustainability and flight resumption progress [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1656, 1147, 2188, 962, 3033, 1690, 1589, and 3143 respectively. Their previous values were 1553, 1125, 1992, 924, 2846, 1533, 1510, and 2833 respectively, with corresponding increases of 6.66%, 1.95%, 9.84%, 4.11%, 6.57%, 10.24%, 5.23%, and 10.94% [4] 3.2 Spot Price - For the Gemini Alliance (MSK, HPL), MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the previous sailing. HPL - SPOT's price decreased from $3535/FEU in the first half of January to $3035/FEU, with an expected increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. - For the OCEAN Alliance (OOCL, CMA), OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate increased slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. - For the MSG&PA Alliance (ONE, YML), ONE has an expected online increase to $2836/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special offers for larger volumes [7] 3.3 Market Information - Houthi movement leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi warned that a new round of conflict with Israel is "certain and inevitable". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump. Trump plans to announce multiple major measures on the Gaza issue in early January, depending on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [5] 3.4 Market Trend - The market is in a volatile state [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - **Copper**: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - **Nickel**: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - **Precious Metals**: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - **Polysilicon and Silicone**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - **Black Metals**: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - **Palm Oil**: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - **Corn**: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - **Log Fibreboard**: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **BR Rubber**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - **Styrene**: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - **PP**: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The steel market continues to oscillate. With low supply and demand, there is some support at low prices. After January, market funds may be more abundant, and the hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, strong expectations persist, and the prices are on the stronger side. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the spot price cut news did not lead to a continuous decline in the futures market. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - For iron ore, small - scale rumors drive short - term fluctuations. The price has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On December 30, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3177.00, 3302.00, 767.00, 1795.50, 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, - 10.00, - 3.50, 10.50, 12.00 yuan and - 0.06%, - 0.30%, - 0.45%, 0.59%, 1.01% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: On December 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 43.00, - 20.00, 22.00, - 80.50, - 80.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Differences/Ratios/Profits**: On December 30, the coil - to - screw spread was 148.00 yuan/ton, the screw - to - ore ratio was 3.97, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.53, the screw surface profit was - 83.10 yuan/ton, and the coking surface profit was 226.07 yuan/ton [1]. Steel Market - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the futures prices were stable, and the spot prices fluctuated slightly. The supply - demand structure was weak in both supply and demand. The pressure of destocking plates was prominent. After January, the molten iron output may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some restocking behavior [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be based on an oscillatory approach. After January, it is beneficial for futures - spot positions to enter the market, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can still be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is relatively lighter than that of silicomanganese [3]. - **Cost and Policy Factors**: The cost support of silicomanganese has strengthened, and relevant policies have formed constraints and cost support expectations for the supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in cross - month reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal and Coke Market - **Market Situation**: The fourth round of spot price cuts for coke is expected to start. The futures market rebounded after the price dropped to the position of the fourth - round price cut. The market is likely to continue wide - range oscillations [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for the time being [6]. Iron Ore Market - **Market Situation**: Affected by rumors, the iron ore price has risen, but the upside space is limited. The port inventory will continue to rise, and the steel apparent demand has declined slightly. The iron ore price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices may experience wide - range high - level oscillations. Due to the high level of SHFE silver VIA and the upcoming New Year's Day holiday in China, silver prices may still have significant fluctuations. It is recommended that investors focus on risk control and hold light positions during the holiday. Follow - up events such as the announcement of the new Fed chairperson and US critical mineral tariffs should be monitored. Given the gold - silver ratio at a ten - year low, it is advisable to prioritize buying gold on dips [4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase dollar credit risk. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Therefore, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, London gold spot dropped 2.1% to $4364.17 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.7% to $74.80 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased 2.2% to $4378.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver declined 0.8% to $74.34 per ounce. The AU2602 contract fell 2.2% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the AG2602 contract dropped 0.4% to 18140 yuan per kilogram. The AU (T + D) decreased 2.1% to 980.75 yuan per gram, and the AG (T + D) fell 1.6% to 18110 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price differences, on December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 23.4%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference changed by - 115.4%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 0.8%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) changed by 19.9%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.9%, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.4%. The AU2604 - 2602 price difference changed by - 5.7%, and the AG2604 - 2602 price difference changed by 725.0% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position increased by 0.08% to 1071.99 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position decreased by 0.52% to 16305.9639 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 4.63% to 280920 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased by 4.51% to 233978 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 15.05% to 56034 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 18.69% to 36352 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97704 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 5.14% to 755754 kilograms. On December 29, 2025, compared with December 26, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.09% to 36223374 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.13% to 449127596 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On December 30, 2025, compared with December 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.03. The US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.00, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.12%, the VIX increased by 4.41% to 14.20, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6905.74, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.58% to 57.83 [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 30, the main contract of SHFE gold futures closed down 3.11% to 984.84 yuan per gram, and the main contract of SHFE silver futures closed down 3.96% to 18140 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - After a sharp adjustment on Monday, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday. London spot gold returned above the $400 per ounce mark, and London spot silver returned above the $76 per ounce mark. In terms of the silver price difference structure, the premium of silver spot and T0 prices over futures significantly narrowed, and the premium of SHFE silver over foreign markets also significantly declined. However, the de - stocking of silver at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued, indicating that the tightness of silver spot supply has eased but not completely improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion. Demand remains robust, with high domestic PTA operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread also supports aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, maintaining high PTA consumption, increasing market willingness for domestic products, and rapidly strengthening the basis. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. In the context of the commodity market's enthusiastic sentiment, PTA prices are significantly boosted [2] - Overseas ethylene glycol (MEG) plant maintenance plans are increasing, with two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, scheduled to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian MEG plants starting planned maintenance. The inventory at East China MEG ports remains at 750,000 tons. Against the backdrop of continuously falling coal prices, MEG prices struggle to gain effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, market supply pressure continues to increase. The return of coal - based MEG plants exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and MEG prices may receive support under the carbon neutrality background [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 434.8 yuan/barrel on December 29, 2025, to 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, an increase of 1.3 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1962.3 yuan/ton to 1974.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.55 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6210 to 1.6231, an increase of 0.0021; CFR China PX increased from 891 to 894, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread increased from 349 to 359, an increase of 11; PTA main futures price rose from 5122 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 5065 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; spot processing fee rose from 334.1 yuan/ton to 352.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.9 yuan/ton; disk processing fee rose from 391.1 yuan/ton to 396.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton; main basis rose from (63) to (50), an increase of 13; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 114,648 to 107,482, a decrease of 7,166 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main futures price rose from 3817 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (145.22) yuan/ton to (139.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 3687 yuan/ton to 3694 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; main basis remained at - 140 [2] - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.28%; PTA operating rate remained at 74.63%; MEG operating rate remained at 61.76%; polyester load remained at 88.81% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; POY cash - flow decreased from (246) to (303), a decrease of 57; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; FDY cash - flow decreased from (506) to (588), a decrease of 82; DTY150D/48F decreased from 7760 yuan/ton to 7745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; DTY cash - flow decreased from (256) to (303), a decrease of 47; long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 41%, an increase of 1%; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12; short - fiber sales rate increased from 52% to 54%, an increase of 2%; semi - bright chip increased from 5755 yuan/ton to 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash - flow decreased from (161) to (188), a decrease of 27; chip sales rate increased from 51% to 81%, an increase of 30% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest restarted after shutting down early last week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX-naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX-mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion [2] - Demand remains robust, with domestic PTA maintaining high operation rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November [2] - High gasoline spreads support aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants keeps the polyester load at a high level, with PTA consumption remaining high and market hoarding intentions increasing, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [2] - Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in the domestic market, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. PTA prices are significantly boosted by the enthusiastic sentiment in the commodity market, and the costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Spot Prices - PTA spot price increased from 5065 to 5100, a change of 35 [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 3687 to 3694, a change of 7 [2] Futures Closing Prices - PTA closing price increased from 5122 to 5144, a change of 22 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 3817 to 3847, a change of 30 [2] Short Fiber Indicators - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6620 to 6640, a change of 20 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 120 to 86, a change of -34 [2] - 2 - 3 spread increased from 6 to 8, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber price difference increased from 1345 to 1365, a change of 20 [2] Bottle Chip Indicators - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remained stable, with the average price unchanged from the previous working day [2] - PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, with most supply offers remaining unchanged, and the market negotiation atmosphere was cautious [2] - Downstream terminal demand was relatively stable, and the market negotiation focus remained temporarily stable [2] Other Product Indicators - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10380 to 10400, a change of 20 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3760 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16370 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15240 to 15280, a change of 40 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1220 to 1192, a change of -28 [2] - Primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7216 to 7215, a change of -1 [2] - Hollow short fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 450 to 417, a change of -33 [2] - Primary low-melting short fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct-spun short fiber week-on-week load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 54.00% to 55.00%, a change of 1.00% [3] - Polyester yarn week-on-week startup rate remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton-type week-on-week load index remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 30, platinum and palladium futures prices both hit the daily limit down for the second consecutive trading day. The PT2606 contract closed down 13% to 589.85 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 13% to 447.45 yuan/gram. Recently, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium have not changed significantly, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices led to a large deviation between the spot and futures prices and a significant premium over the external market, resulting in high risks in the platinum and palladium markets. Coupled with multiple rounds of risk - control measures introduced by the exchange, the profit - taking pressure and the return of the spot - futures spread caused the prices to drop significantly. After the recent sharp price adjustment, the deviation between the spot and futures prices of platinum and palladium has improved, and the premium over the external market has also narrowed. Although it has not returned to a reasonable level, the space for further decline is expected to be relatively limited, and the prices are expected to gradually shift to range - bound trading. In the long - term, with a supply - demand gap in platinum and a tendency towards a supply - loose pattern in palladium, investors can go long on dips or mainly adopt the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory (Data Summary) Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 589.85, previous value 634.35, down 7.02% [4] - Spot: Shanghai Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: 565.12, previous value 637.15, down 11.31% [4] - Spot: Platinum (99.95%): 228, previous value 652, down 14.42% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 31.85, previous value 17.65, down 280.45% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 447.45, previous value 494.1, down 9.44% [4] - Spot: Palladium (99.95%): 424, previous value 463.5, down 8.52% [4] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 23.45, previous value - 30.6, down 23.37% [4] International 15 - Point Prices (US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: 2156.1, previous value 2320.6, down 7.09% [4] - London spot palladium: 1603.79, previous value 1691.204, down 5.17% [4] - NYMEX platinum: 2181.3, previous value 2339, down 6.74% [4] - NYMEX palladium: 1668.5, previous value 1811.5, down 7.89% [4] Internal - External 15 - Point Price Spreads - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity: 7.0348, previous value 7.0331, up 0.02% [4] - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum spread: 38.80, previous value 41.40, down 6.28% [4] - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum spread: 32.36, previous value 36.70, down 11.83% (tax - included) [5] - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium spread: 37.56, previous value 61.97, down 39.39% [5] - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium spread: 21.02, previous value 31.24, down 32.70% [5] Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3182, previous value 1.2838, up 0.0344 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3722, previous value 1.3444, down 0.0278 [5] Inventories (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 646795, previous value 646896, down 0.02% [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 210029, previous value 198040, up 6.05% [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 97095, previous value 90356, up 7.46% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 23293, previous value 19890, up 17.11% [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: 22061, previous value 20773, up 6.20% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 978, previous value - 18, up 5533.33% [5]