Workflow
Guo Mao Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
宏观金融数据日报-20251110
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 05:40
Report Summary 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - level is in a relative policy window period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward mainline, trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate and are in an accumulation phase. The US government's continuous shutdown risks increase the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impact the domestic equity market, but the impact is mainly at the A - share opening stage, and the intraday trend can be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the long - term, the market is expected to have further upward space, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors such as overseas liquidity release or substantial improvement in domestic fundamentals will drive the market upward [6]. 2. Data Summary 2.1 Currency Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.33 | 1.55 | | DR007 | 1.41 | - 1.24 | | GC001 | 1.20 | - 12.00 | | GC007 | 1.47 | - 0.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | - 0.35 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.40 | - 0.04 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 0.53 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.81 | 0.77 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.11 | 0.00 | Last week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market. There were 2068 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. 2.2 Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4679 | - 0.31 | | IF Current Month | 4673 | - 0.2 | | SSE 50 | 3038 | - 0.21 | | IH Current Month | 3039 | - 0.1 | | CSI 500 | 7328 | - 0.24 | | IC Current Month | 7292 | - 0.2 | | CSI 1000 | 7542 | - 0.13 | | IM Current Month | 7493 | 0.1 | | IF Trading Volume | 86450 | - 22.4 | | IF Open Interest | 257486 | - 2.7 | | IH Trading Volume | 37804 | - 26.6 | | IH Open Interest | 90943 | - 5.5 | | IC Trading Volume | | - 19.9 | | IC Open Interest | 240492 | - 3.6 | | IM Trading Volume | 187617 | - 7.8 | | IM Open Interest | 356424 | 1.9 | Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), medicine and biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1910.4 billion, 1753.4 billion, 1718.3 billion, 1860 billion, and 1833.1 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 260.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 3.77% | 3.78% | 3.13% | 3.23% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.58% | | IC Premium/Discount | 14.91% | 12.17% | 10.13% | 10.16% | | IM Premium/Discount | 19.55% | 15.71% | 12.96% | 12.36% | Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount) [7].
纸浆数据日报-20251110
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 05:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 7, 2025, SP2601 was 5394 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 3.49%; SP2511 was 4872 with a daily decrease of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2605 was 5398 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.62% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% from August; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% from August. The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of offset paper on November 6, 2025, was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons. White cardboard showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, while cultural paper had frequent price - increase letters, but whether they can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand was still weak [5][10]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 7, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 228 with a quantile level of 0.905; Silver Star was 628 with a quantile level of 0.872 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On November 7, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5].
股指期权数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the A - share market rose unilaterally with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% and returned to the 4000 - point mark. The computing power hardware industry chain exploded, and the electric power grid theme continued to ferment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.97% at 4007.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84%, the CSI 300 rose 1.43%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.38%, the STAR 50 rose 3.34%, the Wind All - A rose 1.19%, the Wind A500 rose 1.51%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.54%. The A - share market had a full - day trading volume of 2.08 trillion yuan, compared with 1.89 trillion yuan the previous day [3]. - **Specific Index Data**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3044.7416, with a trading volume of 50.63 billion and a turnover of 1439.34 billion yuan, up 1.22%. The CSI 300 closed at 4693.4032, with a trading volume of 224.24 billion and a turnover of 5536.42 billion yuan, up 1.43%. The CSI 1000 closed at 7551.8299, with a trading volume of 4051.69 billion and a turnover of 263.61 billion yuan, up 1.17% [3]. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Position**: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 4.07 million, the put option trading volume was 3.11 million, the call option position was 7.29 million, the put option position was 4.19 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.74, and the position PCR was 0.66. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 13.74 million, the put option trading volume was 8.62 million, the call option position was 20.00 million, the put option position was 10.75 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.59, and the position PCR was 0.86. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 26.01 million, the put option trading volume was 13.93 million, the call option position was 31.01 million, the put option position was 14.85 million, the trading volume PCR was 0.87, and the position PCR was 1.09 [3]. Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report presents the historical volatility and volatility cone of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including the 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values, as well as historical volatility data for different periods (5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, 120 - day) [3]. - **Volatility Smile Curve and Next - Month At - the - Money Implied Volatility**: The report shows the volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3].
蛋白数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise, and the futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and strong trend. However, the expected loose global soybean supply pattern limits the rebound height of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US policies, USDA report adjustments, and the driving evolution brought by South American weather changes [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 6th, the basis in Dalian was 82, up 55; in Tianjin it was 12, up 25; in Rizhao it was - 8, up 45; in Zhangjiagang it was - 8, up 35; in Dongguan it was - 48, up 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 18, up 35; in Fangcheng it was - 28, up 25 [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 76, down 34 on November 6th [6]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 519, down 17; the futures spread of the main contract was 457, up 45 [7]. 3.2 Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially being lowered and the export expectation having room for an upward adjustment. The US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of October 25th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared to 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the La Nina weather pattern [8]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The far - month purchase and shipping progress is slow [9]. 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [9]. - **Downstream Transactions**: Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the pick - up performance has been good [9]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].
宏观金融数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:19
Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Author: Zheng Yuting from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.15 bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.43 with a 1.24 bp decrease [4] - GC001 closed at 1.32 with an 11.00 bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.47 with no change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.15 bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40 with a 0.23 bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58 with a 0.52 bp increase [4] - 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81 with a 1.06 bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09 with a 2.33 bp decrease [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 342.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 70 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Indexes and Futures Stock Indexes - CSI 300 rose 1.43% to 4693.4; SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 3044.7; CSI 500 rose 1.61% to 7345.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.17% to 7551.8 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0552 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6] Stock Index Futures - IF当月 rose 1.6%; IH当月 rose 1.3%; IC当月 rose 1.9%; IM当月 rose 1.3% [6] - IF trading volume decreased 4.5%, and its position decreased 2.0%; IH trading volume decreased 3.1%, and its position decreased 0.8% [6] - IC trading volume decreased 9.3%, and its position decreased 2.7%; IM trading volume decreased 14.8%, and its position decreased 4.6% [6] Market Analysis and Strategy - Yesterday, the stock index continued to rebound, and the technology sector recovered. Rumors of support for domestic chips and a 50% price increase in HBM4 supply between SK Hynix and NVIDIA boosted relevant sectors [7] - In the short term, in November, the stock index enters a macro - relatively vacuum period. Liquidity factors may dominate market strength, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly under the background of abundant macro - liquidity [7] - In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. The strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF升贴水: 4.98% (current month), 4.09% (next month), 3.22% (current quarter), 3.27% (next quarter) [8] - IH升贴水: 1.39% (current month), 0.93% (next month), 0.60% (current quarter), 0.64% (next quarter) [8] - IC升贴水: 13.62% (current month), 11.48% (next month), 9.93% (current quarter), 10.00% (next quarter) [8] - IM升贴水: 20.63% (current month), 16.50% (next month), 13.17% (current quarter), 12.40% (next quarter) [8]
瓶片短纤数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Gasoline crack spreads rising above $15 encourage refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce aromatics unit feedstock. PTA processing fees are compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still affected by over - capacity due to new plant commissioning. Despite the end of the peak seasons, export demand may improve with the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chip and staple fiber costs follow these trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4505 to 4540, PTA closing price rose from 4600 to 4688 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 3974 to 3972, MEG closing price increased from 3914 to 3924 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6365 to 6380, short - fiber basis decreased from 140 to 135 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased, with the average price rising by 20 yuan/ton [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price decreased from 10320 to 10310, T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3955 to 3930 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14450 to 14490 [2] Market Conditions - In the staple - fiber market, the main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 70 to 6244. Factory prices decreased, trader prices had weak upward momentum, and downstream sentiment was cautious with limited transactions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, PTA and bottle - chip futures showed a warm - side shock. Market trading sentiment was cautious, and downstream terminals made cautious purchases. Cost pushed up bottle - chip prices [2] Production and Sales and Operating Rates - Direct - spun staple - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, polyester staple - fiber production and sales increased from 38.00% to 48.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:18
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino-US trade policies has released positive signals, significantly alleviating the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions. Although the direct impact is concentrated on the US routes, it also drives the improvement of European route expectations [6]. - The US - China trade agreement announced this week is expected to prompt some US retailers to accelerate short - term import rhythms, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant adjustment of the supply - chain strategy [6]. - The EC market is in a downward trend, mainly because MSK's late - November quotes are significantly lower than those of other airlines [7]. - Key factors affecting the market include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the persistence of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is recommended to try to go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. 2. Data Summary Shipping Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1551 | 1403 | 10.49% | | CCFI | 1021 | 993 | 2.89% | | SCFI - US West | 2647 | 2153 | 22.94% | | SCFIS - US West | 1208 | 1107 | 9.12% | | SCFI - US East | 3438 | 3032 | 13.39% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1344 | 1246 | 7.87% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1208 | 1312 | - 7.93% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1983 | 1746 | 13.57% | [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1414.2 | 1426.1 | - 0.83% | | EC2608 | 1484.0 | 1497.1 | - 0.88% | | EC2610 | 1140.0 | 1142.8 | - 0.25% | | EC2512 | 1848.2 | 1946.0 | - 5.03% | | EC5602 | 1601.0 | 1652.0 | - 3.09% | | EC2604 | 1178.0 | 1199.6 | - 1.80% | [5] Contract Positions | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Position | 1455 | 1464 | - 9 | | EC2608 Position | 1306 | 1337 | - 31 | | EC2610 Position | 1432 | 1276 | 156 | | EC2512 Position | 28412 | 34072 | - 5660 | | EC2602 Position | 22625 | 22352 | 273 | | EC2604 Position | 14208 | 14537 | - 329 | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12 - 02 | 247.2 | 294.0 | - 46.8 | | 12 - 04 | 670.2 | 746.4 | - 76.2 | | 02 - 04 | 423.0 | 452.4 | - 29.4 | [5] 3. Market Strategy - The long positions in the December contract can be closed to take profits [9].
纸浆数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [11] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5368 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 2.76%; SP2511 was 4880 with a daily decrease of 0.12% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2605 was 5384 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 2.28% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no daily or weekly change; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: The foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars (down 2.86% month - on - month), and its import cost was 5559 (down 2.83% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars (up 3.92% month - on - month), and its import cost was 4344 (up 3.87% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no month - on - month change, and its import cost was 4830 with no month - on - month change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons (up 12.54% month - on - month), and that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons (up 7.79% month - on - month). The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162, up 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons (a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [6][11] - **Demand**: The production of offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white board paper was 35.70 tons on November 6, 2025. White board paper showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper had frequent price increase letters, but overall demand was still weak [6][11] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 6, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 220 with a quantile level of 0.904; the Silver Star basis was 620 with a quantile level of 0.871 [6] - **Import Profit**: On November 6, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]
白糖数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:12
临近北半球新作和国内甘蔗糖上市,预计郑糖以震荡偏弱为主。进口供应端,当前原糖进口量较大,进口糖到港压力逐步 // 释放,进口成本5300-5400. 对盘面形成压制。国内供应端,前两天云南糖厂首榨,广西糖厂预计11月中下旬集中开榨, 届 结 时或形成新的卖压。但当前盘面接近国内制糖成本,国内新糖上市前预计盘面表现为抵抗式下跌。 | | | 2000 ---- 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 ------- 22/23 -------- 22/24 -- - 24/25 800 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 2017 == 2018 == 2020 =2016 · 0 2021 == 2023 == 2024 === 2024 === 2025 11月 10月 12月 2月 5月 6月 9月 1月 3月 4月 7月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -10 ...
聚酯数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market rose due to rumors of potential maintenance of an East - China PX plant at the beginning of next year, pushing up the PTA price. Although the PTA processing fee was compressed again, the polyester start - up was stable, the polyester load remained above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were still optimistic. The current peak season is expected to last until November. For ethylene glycol, low port inventory and expected decline in overseas imports are offset by new device production pressure, and the coal price increase has not provided strong cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 463.7 yuan/barrel on November 5, 2025, to 460.4 yuan/barrel on November 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 111.98 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0361. PTA主力期价 rose from 4600 yuan/ton to 4688 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4505 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 41.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee increased by 36.7 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased by 5909 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 816 to 826, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 9 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose from 3914 yuan/ton to 3924 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread remained unchanged. The MEG domestic price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 77.84%, 63.74%, and 89.56% respectively [3]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. DTY150D/48F price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The long - filament sales rate increased from 52% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 15, and its cash flow decreased by 14. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 38% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The chip sales rate increased from 46% to 143% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.2 million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [4]