| 方富强 | | 国贸期货研究员 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 2025/12/16 | | 变化 (%) 15:00期货价格 | 价格指标 | 现货价格 | | | 变化 (%) | 图表 | | # 0. 65 11871. 5 | | 11816 | | | 0.92 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | 锌 -2. 35 3172. 5 | LME | 3242 | | | -0. 19 | | | -0. 21 2890 铝 镍 -0. 21 | (美元/吨) | 1932 14420 | | 14645 | 0. 03 0. 24 | | | 期货与现货 锡 42400 3. 34 价格 | | 41905 | | | 2. 42 | 100000 | | 铜 -1.7 92400 锌 -1. 35 23430 | | 92370 23410 | ...

1. 15日玻璃震荡,纯碱稍强。 产业链供需宽松的大逻辑没有改变,情绪悲观。短期供需有韧性和低估 值难以阻挡价格的下行。 . 玻璃方面, 近期资金博弈剧烈, 价格大幅波动。基本面上,短期供给整体 持稳。淡季来临,整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃 行情分析 估值并不高。同时煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑,最低现金成本在950附近。 中期供给过剩格局延续,价格上行阻力大。 纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘望。 交易策略 细敏生仔 250 10000 E 7 冬 75 100 2000 = 2023 = 2024 - 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 E 贸 ...

| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | | IIC 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 尿素数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一州 | | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | 指标 2025/12/15 | | | 2025/12/12 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | 沫煤 | | 465. 00 | 465.00 | 0. 00 | | | 成本 | 无烟小块 | 960. 00 | 960. 00 | 0.00 | | | 天然气 | | 3820.00 | 3820.00 | 0.00 | | | 河南 | | 1670.00 | 1680.00 | -10.00 | | | 河北 | | 1710.00 | 1710.00 | 0.00 | 本周工业复合肥开工率逐渐提升,但因 | | 安徽 | | 1670.00 | 1670.00 | 0.00 | 农业需求下降明显,且尿素供应持续高 | | 山东 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of the price increase letter for double offset paper in December was poor, and there was no significant increase in the spot market price. The current futures price (ex-factory price) is at a discount to the spot market price and is within a reasonable operating range. There is a significant linkage between double offset paper and pulp futures, and the recent large fluctuations in pulp are expected to have an impact on double offset paper futures to a certain extent [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double Offset Paper Futures Data - On December 13, 2025, the price of OP2602 was 4008, with a day-on-day increase of 0.35% compared to December 10, 2025. The main contract's open interest was 18,967, a day-on-day decrease of 1.30% [3] Spot Price Data - Double offset paper prices in various regions such as Shandong and Guangdong remained mostly unchanged on a daily and weekly basis, except for Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit, which had a daily decrease of 1.10% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%. Copperplate paper prices also showed little change, with only Guangdong Jindong Dongfan having a weekly decrease of 1.89% and Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit having a daily decrease of 1.10% and a weekly decrease of 2.17% [3] Papermaking Raw Material Data - The price of Shandong broadleaf Jinyu was 5600 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change. The price of Shandong softwood Yinxing was 4500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.82% and no weekly change. The price of Shandong softwood Russian Needle was 5250 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [5] Double Offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - From November 7 to December 12, 2025, the production volume fluctuated between 20.57 - 20.88 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was between 52.70% - 54.22%, the in-plant inventory was between 135.5 - 138.9 million tons, and the social inventory was between 53 - 54.2 million tons. The production profit of double offset paper using chemimechanical pulp as the main raw material was between 351 - 418 yuan/ton, and that using broadleaf pulp as the main raw material was between 21 - 146 yuan/ton [5]

来阳 60 40 根据中国粮油商务网监测数据,截至2025年第48周末,国内进口压榨菜 油库存量为42.5万吨,较上周的43.9万吨减少1.4万吨,环比下降 3.35%。与此同时,合同量为4.9万吨,较上周的3.8万吨增加1.1万吨, 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 环比增加27. 70%。这表明尽管进口菜籽到港量有限,但市场对后续供应 仍保持一定预期。 - 2020 - 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 - 2025 棕榈油(华南)进口盘面利润 马来西亚棕榈油月度港口库存(万吨) 500 120 - 100 80 据冬衣 -2000 -2500 20 -3000 -3500 02 10 11 01 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 02 03 06 07 08 09 10 12 01 04 05 - 2022 = 2023 = 2024 - 2025 =2022 = 2023 = 2024 - 2025 马来高频数据仍然利空、库存压力大、建议做空棕榈油；全球菜籽新作丰产，近端原料端短缺题材利多出尽，建议做空菜油。 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Platinum [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping [1][2] Core Views - In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. There is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as industrial drivers, risk preferences, and macro - policies, showing different trends of high - level volatility, short - term rebound with limited upward drive, and short - term shock - strengthening [1]. - Precious metals have different short - and long - term trends, with some having short - term shocks and long - term upward potential, and some being recommended to wait and see [1]. - New energy - related products are affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term pressure [1]. - Black metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - drivers, supply - demand, and inventory, and some products have opportunities for basis positive - spread positions [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as reports, policies, and supply - demand, and different products have different trends and investment suggestions [1]. - Energy - chemical product prices are affected by factors such as international agreements, supply - demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The market sentiment is fluctuating recently, and there is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Industrial drivers are limited, and risk preferences are fluctuating. The aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level. Domestic alumina production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Some short - positions are closed in the short - term, and the price rebounds, but the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro - benefits have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and it is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to the changes in domestic growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. Global nickel inventory is still high. The nickel price may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to position changes and macro - sentiment. The cost of integrated MHP provides support below. Operate mainly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will be in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. The price of raw - material ferronickel has temporarily stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the estimated production cut by steel mills in December has increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. The raw - material price has stabilized, and steel mills have raised prices. The stainless - steel futures are oscillating. It is recommended to operate mainly in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies for hedging [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. Tin is still regarded as bullish in the long - term. Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: It has fallen after reaching a high. The gold price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, but there is still upward space in the long - term [1]. - Silver: It has fallen after reaching a high, with sharp fluctuations. The silver price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Platinum: The platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term [1]. - Palladium: The palladium price is expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. From the perspective of the relative strength of the fundamentals, the “long platinum, short palladium” arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles. Energy - storage demand is strong. Supply - side production resumption has increased. There is great pressure at the key level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and can appropriately participate in spot - futures positions [1]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and the spot - futures positive - spread positions can still be continuously participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month contract [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass. The supply - demand situation is okay, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Coke: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is likely to be near the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a drive perspective, it may need to wait. Downstream is expected to start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, treat single - side trading with a short - term mindset for now, and wait and see for the long - term. Close out hedging short - positions [1]. - Coking Coal: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is bearish, but the German RED III policy is bullish for origin exports. The night - session shows a rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report has no highlights. Recently, pay attention to the bearish impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the news of the return of imported non - GMO rapeseed oil, the supply of rapeseed oil has become relatively tight, and there is an expectation of a rebound [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream opening rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the cotton demand in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of “having support but no drive”. In the future, pay attention to the setting of direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The bearish consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: In the short - term, funds are taking profits, and the futures price is giving back the emotional premium, but the spot contradiction has not been completely resolved. The short - term decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. Still, pay attention to changes in farmers' grain - selling mentality and inventory at each link [1]. - Soybean Meal: There are rumors of delayed customs clearance in China. Today, the成交率 and成交 premium of domestic imported soybean auctions are high, reflecting the market's expectation of commercial shortages, which is bullish for the near - month contract and positive spreads. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious speculation drive for South American weather, and the Brazilian discount is expected to be under pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Pulp: Pulp futures have been fluctuating greatly recently, being pulled by the reality of “weak demand” and the expectation of “strong supply”. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - Log: Log futures have fallen due to the negative impact of falling foreign - market quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted. The US has intensified a new round of sanctions against Russia. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for catch - up construction during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support. The futures - spot price difference is at a low level. The mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1]. - BR Rubber: The trading of butadiene has improved, the ex - tank price has increased, and there is bullish support on the export side. The listed price of major producers of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has stabilized, and the ex - factory price of private enterprises has increased. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but the long - term demand for tires at home and abroad is increasing. Pay attention to the export situation of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX cost is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is accumulating, and the price is falling accordingly. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning is suppressing the rise of ethylene glycol [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: The styrene market as a whole maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Discussions about exports provide some support, but the polymer market sales are weak. US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has declined, and the price of high - octane components has declined [1]. - Urea: The number of overhauls has decreased, and the operating load is at a high level. There are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - Propylene: The number of overhauls is small, and the operating load is relatively high. The supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, providing strong cost support. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - PVC: The futures price has returned to the fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, and new production capacity will be released, increasing the supply pressure. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [2]. - Caustic Soda: The pre - delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure for caustic soda in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The short - positions in the 01 contract have been rolled over to the March contract, and the shorts have not left the market [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. The FEI has recently rebounded and repaired upwards. The heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually being released, and there is support from chemical rigid demand. The production and sales of domestic C3/C4 are smooth, and there is no inventory pressure. After the decline in the PG futures price, it maintains a range - bound oscillation. Pay attention to the price increase of the near - month contract affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [2]. - Container Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected. The expectation of price increases in the peak season was priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期 货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITC E 認 期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一 -流的衍生品综合服务商 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/15 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 涨跌幅(%) 收盘价 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 1372. 58 上证50 57. 19 0. 59 2994. 6446 212. 83 沪深300 0. 63 5238. 63 4580. 95 4227.79 中证1000 7370. 9416 0. 81 243. 53 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - **Demand**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - **Main Data Summary**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - **Outbound Volume**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Timber Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].

2012 31 2025-12-15 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内商品继续回落，多数品种走弱，其中，工业品、农产品指数均下跌，品种间走势分化。一是，美联储12月如期降息，黄金、有色板块表现亮眼；二是， | | | 国内经济疲软，供强需求，黑色系继续调整，表现较弱；三是，多空因素交织，能化板块震荡运行。 | | 海外 | 1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上重申了双重使命，并强调由于缺乏增量数据， | | | 就业和通胀预期变化不大。但对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔提到就业增长可能被高估了约6万人，暗示自4月以来月均就业人数实际可能减少了2万人。因此在当前就业 | | | 下滑和通胀上行的矛盾走势中，美联储选择在当前更加重视就业的问题，所以选择降息。12月美联储降息如期落地，而且与市场预期不同的是，鲍威尔的发言更 | | | 偏鸽派，目前市场预期2026年仍有两次各25bp降息可能，后续就业和通胀的走势仍是关键。2）日本 ...

张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在79.43%环比减少0.46%，同比减少0.07%；其中电石法在79.66%环比减少2.99%，同比减少0.54%，乙烯法在78.90%环比增加5.46%，同比增加1.39%。 | | | | （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在37.60%，环 ...