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原油&燃料油数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The easing of trade concerns and the escalation of geopolitical situations have led to a recent rebound in oil prices. However, in the long - term, due to the loose supply - demand pattern of crude oil, the long - term oil price will remain weak, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. For both crude oil and fuel oil, the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Market - **Market Influencing Factors**: The first round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is expected to ease trade concerns and boost the oil market. Geopolitically, the cancellation of the Trump - Putin meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers may disrupt the global crude oil supply chain. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ has reached a principle agreement to increase production slightly in November, while global crude oil consumption has gradually declined since September, with a drop of 1 - 3 million barrels per day in the off - season compared to the peak season [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: SC crude oil closed at 468.9 yuan/barrel, up 0.86%; WTI crude oil was at 61.44 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 64.92 dollars/barrel, unchanged. There are also various spread data such as SC - WTI, SC - Brent, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Oman crude oil was at 68.1 dollars/barrel, up 6.87%; Russian ESPO was at 60.63 dollars/barrel, up 3.16%; Brent Dtd was at 62.39 dollars/barrel, up 5.75% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: US EIA data shows that crude oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.23% to 422,824 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 0.98% to 216,679 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.26% to 117,030 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 0.05% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4] 3.2 Fuel Oil Market - **Inventory and Trade Data**: As of the week ending October 22, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.036 million barrels or 8.1% to 23.027 million barrels (3.63 million tons). In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 543,400 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month and down 4.11% year - on - year; exports were 2.2363 million tons, up 36.09% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of China's bonded marine fuel oil were 15.322 million tons, up 1.53% year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, consumption from power generation terminals will gradually decline after the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the Asian market structure is weakening, and the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore in October is expected to increase. The fuel oil market generally follows the short - term sharp rebound of international oil prices [3] - **Price and Spread Data**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,842 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,257 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. There are also various spread data such as FU - SC, LU - SC, LU - FU, etc. [3] - **Spot Price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 395 dollars/ton, up 2.33%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 442.5 dollars/ton, up 1.36% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels. The exchange warehouse receipts of FU fuel oil increased by 26.76% to 37,890 [4] 3.3 Macro Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9417, up 0.01%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was at 4.02%, up 0.25%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI index was at 1,991, down 3.21% [4]
日度策略参考-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:12
Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index may return to the upward channel. In the context of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, the adjustment space of stock index is expected to be limited, and the strategy is to go long on stock index when opportunities arise [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - Market risk appetite has improved, which suppresses precious metal prices, but factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October support the gold price, so the short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate [1] Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: Expected to return to the upward channel, with limited adjustment space, and the strategy is to go long when opportunities arise [1] - **Bond Futures**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price may fluctuate, while silver price may also fluctuate in the short term [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's B50 implementation expectation in the next year provides support, but high inventory in Malaysia in September and expected inventory accumulation in October put pressure on the market. It is advisable to wait and see [1] - **Soybean Oil**: With the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the negotiation result may bring new guidance. Currently, there are both supportive and suppressing factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian relations puts pressure on the market, while domestic rapeseed is still in short supply and inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see [1] - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in cotton demand in the new year due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space of the market is limited, but the new crop may put pressure on the basis and the market [1] - **Sugar**: In the short term, sugar price has seasonal upward momentum due to the impact of typhoons on sugarcane harvest and the period of supply shortage. In the medium term, the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1] - **Soybean**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the supply pressure is large. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment and the approaching of the Fed's interest rate meeting, copper price is expected to continue to be strong [1] - **Aluminum**: Due to the improvement of macro - sentiment and limited industrial drivers, aluminum price may remain strong [1] - **Alumina**: With the continuous release of domestic alumina production capacity, the output and inventory are increasing, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to cost support [1] - **Zinc**: The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread has reached a record high, and the export expectation has strengthened, driving the domestic zinc price to rebound. The short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to remain at a high level [1] - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and fluctuate strongly, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. Attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the operation is recommended to be short - term, waiting for the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Affected by the improvement of macro - sentiment, the short - term tin price may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices in the medium - long term [1] - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the arrival of the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall large demand, it is bullish [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the futures valuation is low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is mainly under pressure and fluctuating [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is poor, the cost support is strengthening, and the price may fluctuate strongly with limited downside [1] - **Glass**: The supply surplus pressure is large, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with large supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price has reached a relatively high level, and it may be difficult to break through the previous highs. It may fluctuate widely if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Influenced by factors such as US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the softening of the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the same factors as crude oil [1] - **PTA**: The news of promoting the "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the price, and the short - fiber price follows the cost closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low port inventory, strengthened cost support, and stable polyester demand support the price [1] - **Styrene**: Weak Asian benzene price, reduced profit, and increased device maintenance [1] - **Urea**: There is support from "anti - involution" and cost, but the upside space is limited by insufficient domestic demand [1] - **ASH**: The price may fluctuate strongly with the improvement of downstream demand [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure is large, and the price may fluctuate weakly [1] - **Alumina**: Planned production increase in Guangxi, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, and weak fundamentals [1] - **LPG**: International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1] - **FE TANKE**: The price has fallen to a low level and may rebound, and it is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm [1]
国贸商品指数日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 27, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new energy materials leading the gains and agricultural products showing mixed performance. The report analyzes the market trends of different commodity sectors and their influencing factors, and provides an outlook on the future market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - All black series commodities rose. Despite weak terminal demand for steel, heavy - pollution weather emergency responses in Hebei led to a collective rise. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.73% week - on - week to 15.5485 million tons, but was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. Production increased by 0.98% week - on - week, and apparent demand increased by 1.98% week - on - week to 8.9273 million tons, slightly lower than last year. The overall supply - demand pattern still poses pressure on price increases [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The macro - environment has improved recently. China's "155" plan was passed last week, and the Sino - US trade negotiation reached a preliminary consensus over the weekend, boosting market confidence and metal demand expectations. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September deepened market bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, making overseas liquidity more relaxed. However, high prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Most energy and chemical products rose. Short - term geopolitical disturbances pushed up oil prices, and the SC crude oil main contract drove the energy - chemical sector to close higher. Due to US sanctions on Russian oil companies, supply concerns persist, but demand remains weak, and the oversupply of crude oil remains unchanged. In the short term, it is a rebound after an oversell, and the medium - term upside is limited [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed performance. The market has positive expectations for the Sino - US trade negotiation, and CBOT soybeans continued to be strong. However, the double - meal market is cautious due to uncertainties about US soybean procurement. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from October 1 - 25, while production increased, and the market expects inventory to rise, causing palm oil prices to weaken. In the short term, the oil market may continue to fluctuate [1].
工业硅数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Overall, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for industrial silicon remains unchanged, and silicon prices may run weakly. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Northwest China has slowed down, and the weekly production increase of industrial silicon has decreased. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon and organic silicon has declined. On the inventory side, the reduction of warehouse receipts has led to an overall reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SI2511 closed at 45793 with a -0.29% change and a position of 8000. SI2512 closed at 8980 with a -0.39% change and a position of 122104. SI2601 closed at 8965 with a -0.17% change and a position of 201518. SI2602 closed at 8970 with a -0.06% change and a position of 26702. SI2603 closed at 8980 with a 0.22% change and a position of 11082 [1]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of 553 (non-oxygenated) was 9300 with no change, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9350 with no change, 421 was 9650 with no change, 441 was 9600 with a 200 increase, and 3303 was 10500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 9950 with no change, and 553 (oxygenated) was 9250. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9800 with no change, and 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600. In Sichuan, 421 was 9750 with no change [1]. Price Difference - The difference between SI2511 and SI2512 was -375 with a 5 increase. The difference between SI2512 and SI2601 was 15 with a -15 decrease. The difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 300 with no change. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 385 with a -45 decrease [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt capacity was 280,000 tons, with a decrease from 39677 to 39297. Many warehouses had no change in warehouse receipts, while some had decreases, such as -100 in Zhongchu Lutong (No. 1 Sijingzhilu), -6 in Waiyun Tianjin Binhai, -7 in Jianfa Tianjin Binhai, -56 in Qingdao Port Logistics, -3 in Jianfa Gaoke (Waiyun Longquanyi), -7 in Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai, -5 in Zhongchu Wuxi, -14 in Jianfa Dongguan [1]. Industry Dynamics - The contract dispute between Xinjiang Transformer Factory of TBEA Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qibu Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Zhongbu Hesheng Brick Industry Co., Ltd. will be heard in Changji People's Court on November 4, 2025, with the case number "(2025) Xin 2301 Min Chu 9566" [1].
碳酸锂数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Terminal demand is strong, social inventory is continuously decreasing, creating a short - term supply - demand mismatch that drives up prices. As prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental source. Due to rising ore prices, cost support has shifted upwards. In the short term, prices are likely to move upwards under the supply - demand mismatch but face pressure. In the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,550 with a rise of 1,150; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 74,300 with a rise of 1,150 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 81,120 with a 2.27% increase; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 81,740 with a 2.43% increase; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 81,900 with a 2.53% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,500 with a 2.57% increase; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,400 with a 2.36% increase [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 906 with a rise of 25; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1220 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1990 with a rise of 50; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7250 with a rise of 275; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8600 with a rise of 350 [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) has an average price of 34,970 with a rise of 335; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) has an average price of 157,200 with a rise of 100; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 137,100 with a rise of 400; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 136,950 with a rise of 250 [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 5350 with a change of - 1230; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 620 with a change of - 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 780 with a change of - 180 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a decrease of 2292; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 33,681 with a decrease of 602; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a decrease of 2460; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with an increase of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,739 with a decrease of 960 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 78,206 with a profit of - 2756; the cash cost of外购锂云母精矿 is 81,293 with a profit of - 7862 [3] Industry News - Appian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]
多晶硅数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the fourth - quarter terminal rush - installation expectation, the fundamentals of polysilicon have marginally improved. Coupled with the anti - involution expectation, the price may run strongly in the short term [1] 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Futures Price - For PS2601, the closing price is 54,500 with a 4.2% increase; for PS2511, the closing price is 55,000 with a 3.55% increase; for PS2512, the price is 54,540 with a 4.06% increase; for PS2602, the price is 54,280 with a 4.3% increase [1] - The price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is - 2350, down 340; between PS2512 - PS2601 is 40, down 65; between PS2601 - PS2602 is 220, down 45 [1] 3.2 Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense particles is 51.5, and that of N - type mixed materials is 50.5 [1] - The price difference between N - type dense materials - PS2601 is - 3000, down 2195; between N - type mixed materials - PS2601 is - 4000, down 2195 [1] 3.3 Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 25.8, an increase of 0.5; the silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 1.16, an increase of 18.47; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 9240, a decrease of 180 [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - In October, the polysilicon output is expected to be about 134,000 tons, showing an increase compared with September, exceeding the previous market expectation. Some leading enterprises will cut production in November, and the output is expected to decline [1] - Last week, the quotes of domestic component enterprises fluctuated slightly. Recently, the installation projects in some provinces have increased. In November, some component factories have received more orders, and the original large - scale production reduction plan will be adjusted. The overall planned production reduction in November is expected to be less than expected [1]
股指期权数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily data analysis of stock index options, including market trends, trading volume, open interest, and volatility of major indices such as SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: SSE 50 rose 0.78% to close at 1,852.95, with a trading volume of 70.41 billion and a turnover of 306.95293 billion yuan; CSI 300 rose 1.03%, with relevant trading volume and turnover data; CSI 1000 also had corresponding performance data [3] - **Overall Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to 3,996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the North Star 50 fell 0.2%, the STAR 50 rose 1.5%, the Wind All A rose 1.19%, the Wind A500 rose 1.32%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.3%. A-share trading volume reached 2.36 trillion yuan, up from 1.99 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For SSE 50 options, call option trading volume was 3.70 million contracts, put option trading volume was 3.97 million contracts, call option open interest was 2.61 million contracts, put option open interest was 2.57 million contracts, etc. Similar data were provided for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 options [3] - **PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: PCR data for trading volume and open interest were presented for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 options [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: Historical volatility and volatility cone data were analyzed for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including different percentile values and the current value [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: Volatility smile curves for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility were shown for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4]
宏观金融数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in October reached 600 million yuan, maintaining a relatively high level, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation [4] - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock indices may return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. The strategy is to mainly choose opportunities to go long on stock indices [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45 with a 13.11bp increase, DR007 at 1.58 with a 17.11bp increase, GC001 at 1.41 with a 1.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.64 with a 6.50bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.10bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 2.00bp decrease, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.59 with a 1.20bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84 with a 0.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 3.98 with a 2.70bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 27, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After offsetting the 189 billion yuan of matured reverse repurchases, the net investment on the day was 148.3 billion yuan [3] - The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in October. After offsetting the 700 billion yuan of matured MLF, the net investment of MLF this month was 20 billion yuan, and it was the 8th consecutive month of incremental roll - over [4] - In addition to MLF, the central bank conducted 1700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in October, and achieved a net investment of 400 billion yuan after offsetting the 1300 billion yuan of matured outright reverse repurchases [4] Stock Index Futures Market - On October 27, the CSI 300 rose 1.19% to 4716, the SSE 50 rose 0.78% to 3070, the CSI 500 rose 1.67% to 7379, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7495 [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with sectors such as electronic chemicals, small metals, shipbuilding, energy metals, semiconductors, iron and steel, and electronic components leading the gains, while wind power equipment and game sectors leading the losses [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [5] - For stock index futures, IF's current - month contract closed at 4701 with a 1.1% increase, IH's current - month contract closed at 3067 with a 0.6% increase, IC's current - month contract closed at 7310 with a 1.4% increase, and IM's current - month contract closed at 7399 with a 0.4% increase [5] - IF's trading volume was 113332, a 2.5% decrease; its open interest was 262244, a 2.7% increase. IH's trading volume was 56298, a 4.5% decrease; its open interest was 98162, a 3.0% increase. IC's trading volume was 136694, a 0.8% decrease; its open interest was 252585, a 3.7% increase. IM's trading volume was 214742, a 4.3% decrease; its open interest was 358844, a 2.8% increase [5] - The premium/discount rates of IF were 4.65% for the current - month contract, 4.62% for the next - month contract, 3.23% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.14% for the next - quarter contract. For IH, they were 1.01%, 0.61%, 0.03%, and 0.11% respectively. For IC, they were 13.65%, 11.67%, 10.18%, and 10.02% respectively. For IM, they were 18.70%, 15.88%, 13.19%, and 12.51% respectively [7] International Trade and Market Impact - On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. After the talks, the US Treasury Secretary said that the two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China [6]
双胶纸数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of double-offset paper have remained stable recently, with a slight increase in weekly production and a small rise in inventory. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation of these letters needs to be closely monitored. In the short term, the positions and trading volume in the futures market are low, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Double-offset Paper Futures Data - On October 27, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4232, up 0.95% from October 24, 2025. The position volume of the main contract was 1109, down 2.97% from October 24, 2025 [5] Spot Price Data - Double-offset paper prices in various regions such as Shandong and Beijing, and copperplate paper prices in Guangdong and Shandong showed no daily or weekly changes on October 27, 2025 [5] Papermaking Raw Material Data - Prices of various raw materials such as Shandong broadleaf and softwood pulp showed different daily and weekly changes on October 27, 2025. For example, Shandong broadleaf Jinyu was 5500 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change, while Shandong softwood Moon was 3700 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily and weekly [5][6] Double-offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - From September 2025 to October 2025, the production, capacity utilization, factory inventory, and social inventory of double-offset paper showed different trends. For example, the production in October 24, 2025 was 20.3 million tons, and the capacity utilization was 56.9% [6] Double-offset Paper Production Gross Profit - The production gross profit of double-offset paper using chemimechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp as the main raw materials also showed different trends from September 2025 to October 2025 [6]
原木数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:58
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Log Data Daily Report" and is from the Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated October 28, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The log fundamentals are weakening due to ample supply and the demand entering the off - season. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu have been lowered, and the expected increase in the outer market has been weakened by Sino - US trade negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in the futures market. It is not recommended to continue short - selling on the 01 contract in the short term as the current 01 contract price is lower than the spot delivery cost. Short - selling after a rebound can be considered later [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot and Futures Prices - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9m medium A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 820 yuan; 5.9m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 3.9m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 5.9m small A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan. In Jiangsu, for radiation pine, 4m medium A has a spot price of 770 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan; 6m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 4m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 6m small A has a spot price of 750 yuan and a futures price of 810 yuan [5] Outer - Market and Futures Price Changes - The outer - market quotation for 4m medium A radiation pine changed from 113 - 115 dollars/JAS cubic meter in September to 115 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter in October, an increase of 2. The LG2511 futures price dropped from 796.5 yuan/cubic meter to 763 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33.5. The LG2601 futures price dropped from 829.5 yuan/cubic meter to 796.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33 [5] Downstream Wood Square Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of wood squares (4000*50*100) remained unchanged at 1270 yuan [5] Group 5: Supply Information Import Volume - In September 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 149.93 million cubic meters (compared to 130.6 million cubic meters in August), North American logs was 10.6 million cubic meters (compared to 10.1 million cubic meters in August), and European logs was 16.61 million cubic meters (compared to 14.8 million cubic meters in August). From October 11 - 17 to October 18 - 24, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China increased from 26 million JAS cubic meters to 31 million JAS cubic meters [5] Group 6: Inventory Information Total Inventory - The total inventory on October 17 was 292 million cubic meters, down from 299 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's inventory on October 17 was 184 million cubic meters, down from 189 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's inventory on October 17 was 88.7 million cubic meters, up slightly from 88 million cubic meters on October 10 [5] Daily Average Out - Bound Volume - The daily average out - bound volume on October 17 was 6.32 million cubic meters, up from 5.73 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's out - bound volume on October 17 was 3.42 million cubic meters, down slightly from 3.44 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's out - bound volume on October 17 was 2.42 million cubic meters, up from 1.79 million cubic meters on October 10 [5]