Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the year, the risk preference of funds decreases, and natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Currently, the raw material price has strong support, the mid - stream inventory increases, the downstream demand remains stable, the futures - spot price difference has returned to a relatively low level, and the short - term commodity market sentiment is weak [3][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. In domestic production areas, Yunnan is entering the full - stop period with stable raw material prices, while Hainan has reduced raw material output due to rain, and the purchase price has been adjusted down. In Thailand, geopolitical tensions and increased rainfall in the south have led the raw material price to first decline and then rise. In Vietnam, the weather has returned to normal, and the price of 3L rubber has remained strong [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased, but it is expected to run weakly and stably in the next cycle. Most enterprises have slow shipment and may control production or reduce load [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased by 2.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.9%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU and 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also increased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and RU - NR spread have both narrowed slightly [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. Near the end of the year, the risk preference of funds has decreased, and the domestic commodity market shows a weak performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on NR and short on RU [3] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: At the end of the year, the risk preference of funds decreased, and rubber maintained a narrow - range oscillation. As of December 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,230 yuan/ton, up 1.10% week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,330 yuan/ton, up 2.41% week - on - week [7] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded slightly [10] - **Position**: RU positions decreased, while NR positions increased. The RU - NR spread narrowed, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread strengthened [24][32] 3. Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in the Thai production area decreased [39] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The glue price was stable, and the cup - rubber price increased [50] - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In October, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 9.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.35% [64] - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In the first 10 months, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 7.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.55% [77] - **China's Imports**: From January to October, China imported 5.2281 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 17.27%. In November, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, an 11% increase year - on - year [87] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory increased. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.123 million tons, a 1.9% increase month - on - month [100][108] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: Tire operating rates increased slightly. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%. It is expected to run weakly and stably in the next cycle [109][115] - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The available inventory days of tires in Shandong decreased [116] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In November, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, while the sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [120][130] - **Tire Exports**: From January to October, tire exports were 8.03 million tons, a 3.8% increase year - on - year, but the cumulative growth rate narrowed [131] - **Cost - Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber turned positive, while the delivery profit of full - milk rubber was in the red [139]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘因素反复扰动，国际油价弱势下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘因素反复扰动，国际油价弱势下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日，较10月份下降25万桶/日；Non ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, short - end bonds may be more stable due to relatively stable funds and loose expectations, while long - end and ultra - long - end bonds may have larger fluctuations. The pattern of bonds having a ceiling and a floor is hard to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may stay within 1.75% - 1.85%. For allocation funds, focus on medium - short - term bonds and high - grade credit bonds; for trading funds, watch for trading opportunities of ultra - long - term bonds after adjustments [8]. - In the medium - to long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. Deflation is likely to continue, and the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures. With the synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, bond yields are unlikely to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, Treasury bond futures first rose and then fell. The rebound in the first half of the week was due to technical gap - filling and abundant liquidity, while the adjustment in the second half was related to the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference showed more active responses to the situation, emphasizing promoting economic growth and price recovery in monetary policy, and expanding domestic demand [4]. - The closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts are presented in a table, showing different performance among different contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and various fund prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and other interest rates [10][14][16]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on Treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current market shows a state of "near - term decline, long - term expectation". The freight rate framework for late December has been clarified but needs further implementation, while the outline of January freight rates is emerging. The market is in an entangled state and needs time to resolve disturbing factors. The report currently holds a neutral and wait - and - see attitude towards the market [8]. - The strategy recommended in the report is to adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is currently at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value of 1398. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.29% from 1112. SCFI - US West is 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - US West is 960, up 1.18%; SCFI - US East is 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1538, up 9.86%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1509, up 1.75%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2737, up 19.00% [5]. Contract Information - For contracts, EC2506 is currently at 1260.8, up 2.75%; EC2608 is 1431.7, up 3.61%; EC2610 is 1030.0, up 0.82%; EC2512 is 1650.0, down 0.19%; EC5602 is 1677.8, down 0.66%; EC2604 is 1106.0, up 1.22% [5]. - Regarding contract positions, the current position of EC2606 is 2355, an increase of 59 from the previous value; EC2608 is 1555; EC2610 is 4582, an increase of 291; EC2512 is 2947, a decrease of 84; EC2602 is 31664, an increase of 41; EC2604 is 19930, an increase of 653 [5]. - For monthly spreads, the 12 - 02 spread is currently - 27.8, an increase of 8.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 544.0, a decrease of 16.4; the 02 - 04 spread is 571.8, a decrease of 24.5 [5]. Market News and Impact - Global major liner company CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through key channels such as the Suez Canal and the Bab el Mandeb has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6]. - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity in December, with a blank sailing rate of only 0.9%, and ship maintenance further reduced capacity. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, leading to longer ship turnaround times and more cargo rejections, while strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates, and shipping companies' GRI promotions drive up the market. Freight rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and the New Year. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%, and many European countries face shortages of containers and trailers [6]. EC Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. In early December, MSK quoted 2500, HPL quoted 2350, etc.; in late December, MSK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2050, etc. MSK has issued a price increase letter for January, aiming for 3500 [7]. - In the main contract, there is a fierce game between long and short positions. Long - position investors rely on the dual expectations of price increases in late December and January to confirm the market's landing expectations, waiting for the "catalyst" of high expectations in January. Short - position investors rely on the time advantage, hoping for more price cuts in late December, an early peak, and a price war, and believe that most of the expectations have been factored into the price. The current attitude is neutral and wait - and - see [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - **Black Metals**: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese**: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - **Corn**: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - **Imported Soybeans**: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - **Logs**: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - **BR Rubber**: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber**: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - **Styrene**: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - **PP, PE**: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - **Urea**: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - **Propylene**: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - **LPG**: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The central government continues a relatively positive policy tone, with fiscal policy maintaining the scale of deficits and debt, and monetary policy remaining moderately loose with potential use of reserve - requirement cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, there may be a "sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation, but the market correction since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, suggesting investors gradually build long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27, down 0.21bp; DR007 closed at 1.47, up 1.75bp; GC001 closed at 1.58, up 32.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.54, up 3.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.39, up 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.62, up 0.83bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84, up 0.26bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.19, up 5.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase operations. With 663.8 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase maturities, the net injection was 4.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchases will mature, along with 40 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse - repurchases and 8 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposits maturing on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of major stock indices and their corresponding stock - index futures contracts are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4581, up 0.63%; IF for the current month closed at 4574, up 0.8%. The trading volumes and open interests of stock - index futures also showed varying degrees of increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.08% to 4581; the SSE 50 fell 0.25% to 2994.6; the CSI 500 rose 1.01% to 7169.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% to 7370.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (6.3%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), electronics (2.6%), machinery (1.4%), and power equipment (1.2%) led the gains, while steel (-2.9%), real estate (-2.6%), textile and apparel (-2.6%), basic chemicals (-2.2%), and household appliances (-2%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 214.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] 3.3 Stock - Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for different contracts: current - month contract 11.08%, next - month contract 6.12%, current - quarter contract 4.15%, next - quarter contract 3.92%; IH: current - month contract 19.12%, next - month contract 5.41%, current - quarter contract 1.88%, next - quarter contract 1.84%; IC: current - month contract - 4.29%, next - month contract 8.45%, current - quarter contract 9.07%, next - quarter contract 10.19%; IM: current - month contract 9.05%, next - month contract 12.72%, current - quarter contract 12.95%, next - quarter contract 13.00% [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Treat the single - side at low - level oscillation; conduct rolling operations on the hot - roll futures - spot positive spread or assist the spot with option strategies [3] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [3] 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is not overly optimistic due to limited information on incremental stimulus policies. The new steel export license system will help the long - term high - quality development of the steel industry, but the steel export market needs time to re - balance. The current supply - demand structure is weak, and the price of furnace materials is under pressure. The futures price valuation is relatively low, and short - chasing is not recommended. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may be boosted in the short - term, but the fundamentals are weak, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulating. - The coking coal and coke markets had a sharp decline and then showed signs of stabilization. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak. - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the continuous decline of molten iron and rising port inventory. The price decline may slow down after the molten iron stabilizes, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - Macro: The US cut interest rates in December as expected, and domestic meetings were held. The information on incremental stimulus policies is limited, and market sentiment is not overly excited. - Industry news: The steel export license system is beneficial to the long - term development of the industry. The market has a neutral reaction to it, and the steel export market needs time to re - balance. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand structure is weak in the weekly perspective. The price of furnace materials is under pressure, and the de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. There may be some inventory replenishment in the industry later, and the molten iron output may decline further before winter - stock replenishment. - Valuation: The basis and molten iron margin are large, and industry profits are low, indicating a relatively low futures price valuation, so short - chasing is not recommended. [3] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Policy: The government will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, which may boost the short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon prices. - Fundamentals: Steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, direct demand is weakening, and the negative feedback pressure is accumulating. Alloy factories have poor profits but high production, with supply exceeding demand and rapid inventory accumulation. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak, with most auctions failing. The coking coal price is also declining. - Futures: Affected by the off - season, domestic meetings, and export control, the black chain index declined, and coking coal and coke led the decline. On Friday night, they rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization. - Market sentiment: The weakening of steel supply - demand, the new steel export policy, and the less - than - expected tone of domestic meetings on finance and real estate have led to a pessimistic market sentiment. Attention is paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - stock replenishment next week. [3] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: The molten iron output has continuously declined to about 2.29 million tons without signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is under pressure. - Outlook: The molten iron is expected to stabilize at the end of the month, and steel mills will gradually resume production in January, with pre - production inventory replenishment. The decline of iron ore price may slow down, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] Futures and Spot Market Data on December 12 - **Futures Market** - Far - month contract closing prices: RB2610 was 3093 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), HC2610 was 3239 yuan/ton (- 0.77%), etc. - Near - month contract closing prices: RB2605 was 3060 yuan/ton (- 0.87%), HC2605 was 3232 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), etc. - Inter - month spreads: RB2605 - 2610 was - 33 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton), etc. - Spreads/ratios/profits: The hot - roll to rebar spread was 172 yuan/ton (with a change of 3 yuan/ton), etc. [1] - **Spot Market** - Rebar prices: Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin was 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), etc. - Hot - roll prices: Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton), Hangzhou was 3270 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. - Other prices: Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Platts Index was 105.2 (with a change of 0.2), etc. - Basis: HC main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton change), RB main contract was 190 yuan/ton (with a change of 9 yuan/ton), etc. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market declined slightly, and it was still in a state of destocking, with a slight increase in the spot basis. The gasoline cracking profit of PTA declined, and the PX - naphtha spread widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, but the PX - benzene spread only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The polyester new device put into production kept the polyester load at a high level, and the PTA consumption was close to the historical high in May. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification was expected to drive an increase in exports [2]. - The ethylene glycol futures maintained low - level volatile trading, and the spot price in Zhangjiagang adjusted slightly, with the basis negotiation weakening. The ethylene glycol price was difficult to get effective support due to the continuous decline of coal prices, and the market supply pressure continued to increase with the new devices being put into production. The increase in polyester export inquiries was expected to boost the export demand of textile and clothing, supporting the downstream weaving sector to maintain a high load [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 439.7 yuan/barrel on December 11, 2025, to 437.6 yuan/barrel on December 12, 2025, a decrease of 2.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1468.7 yuan/ton to 1433.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.74 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4596 to 1.4509, a decrease of 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 836 to 831, a decrease of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 277 to 282, an increase of 6 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4664 yuan/ton to 4614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4640 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 decreased from 178.7 yuan/ton to 173.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.3 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 202.7 yuan/ton to 182.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA主力基差 increased from (21) to (20), an increase of 1; PTA仓单数量 decreased from 141,907 to 140,623, a decrease of 1,284 [2]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3599 yuan/ton to 3627 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (165.94) to (165.13), an increase of 0.8 [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 3631 to 3603, a decrease of 28; MEG主力基差 increased from - 20 to - 16, an increase of 4 [2]. - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6340; POY现金流 increased from (94) to (59), an increase of 35 [2]. - FDY150D/96F decreased from 6580 to 6575, a decrease of 5; FDY现金流 increased from (354) to (324), an increase of 30 [2]. - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7720 to 7690, a decrease of 30; DTY现金流 increased from 86 to 91, an increase of 5 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6355 to 6305, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 271 to 256, a decrease of 15 [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5510 to 5500, a decrease of 10; 切片现金流 increased from (24) to 1, an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 86.48%; PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 74.77%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 59.98%; 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 88.41% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China was restarting and was expected to produce products in the near future, and it was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the sharp adjustment in the night session last week, precious metal prices are expected to enter a short - term oscillatory trend. Given that ETF holdings are still in an inflow state, prices are unlikely to decline continuously in the short term. Long - term, the center of gravity of gold prices will likely move up, and long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - On December 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.33% to 970.66 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.75% to 14,892 yuan/kilogram [3] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - After the Fed cut interest rates in December and restarted RME, loose macro - liquidity drove precious metal prices higher. London spot gold approached a record high, and London spot silver hit a new record high. However, due to risk - control measures by exchanges, there was significant profit - taking pressure, leading to a pullback in prices. Statements from Fed and BOJ officials, stock market declines, and potential geopolitical risk mitigation also affected prices. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and this week, events like US non - farm payrolls, OPI, PCE, and the BOJ interest - rate decision should be watched. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Medium - to - Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long run, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the long - term upward movement of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] 4. Data Tracking Price Tracking - On December 12, compared with December 11, the prices of London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all rose, with increases ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. The price differences between TD and SHFE active contracts of gold and silver, and between domestic and foreign markets also changed to varying degrees, with changes ranging from - 21.1% to 21.8% [3] Position Data - Compared with December 11, on December 12, the positions of non - commercial long and short in COMEX gold and silver changed, with the long - position change in COMEX gold reaching 1.37% and the short - position change in COMEX silver reaching - 6.95%. The holdings of gold and silver ETFs also increased slightly [3] Inventory Data - On December 12, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17% compared with December 11, while SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.41% and 0.54% respectively [3] Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market Data - On December 12, the dollar/yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07%, the dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.21%, the VIX increased by 5.99%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.07%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.67% [3]