Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - **Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - **Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - **India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - **Rapeseed - Related Situations**: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supply: USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be revised down. Exports depend on Sino-US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week and 17.6% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 27.7%. Recently, there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean-producing areas, but its persistence is not strong, and the expected impact is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking in November, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - Overall: Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillating trend has not changed. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and changes in South American weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 87, up 25; in Tianjin, it was 67, up 25; in Rizhao, it was 87, up 45. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 27, up 25; in Dongguan, it increased by 25; in Zhanjiang, it was 47, up 25; in Fangcheng, it was 27, up 15. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 64. The M1 - 5 spread was 165, down 3, and the M1 - RM1 spread was 475, up 26 [6]. - **Spread**: The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 608, up 9. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1.500, up 25, down 2 [7]. 3.2 Exchange Rate, Crushing Margin and Premium Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0847, unchanged. The crushing margin of imported soybeans was - 231.00 yuan/ton [7]. - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in different months in 2025 showed different trends, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans in some months was in the range of 210 - 420 cents per bushel [7]. 3.3 Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. - **Supply - demand**: In the supply side, the US soybean ending inventory and yield expectations may change, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate has increased, but the weather impact is limited. In the demand side, short - term livestock and poultry inventories are high, but breeding profits are in a loss state. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows a mixed situation with reduced maintenance and increased production this week, but different regions have different load changes. The demand side is neutral, with weak non - aluminum demand and stable overall production after offsetting increases and decreases. The inventory is increasing, and the profit, valuation are on the bearish side. The macro - policy has a neutral impact, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.6 tons to 80 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 80.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6%. Different regions had different load changes, with Northeast, East, and South China seeing load declines, and Northwest and North China having slight increases [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.02% from last week. The overall production of lithium hydroxide was stable [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The recent shipping pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 414,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.73% and a year - on - year increase of 37.78% [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around 95, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 573 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.43% [3]. - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the futures market traded based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: It is expected to oscillate. There is no obvious short - term driving force for the futures market, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is no unilateral or arbitrage strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The futures market oscillated within a range. The Shandong spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price hit a new low. The liquid chlorine subsidy was less, the liquid chlorine price rose to 250 yuan/ton, the chlor - alkali profit remained high, and the factory operating load remained high. Demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn loose, with the spot price expected to be stable with a slight decline. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production start - up rhythm [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [32]. - **Upstream Production**: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [35]. - **Main Production Area Output**: In North China, maintenance increased, and output decreased [38]. - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: It decreased [39]. - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - **Alumina**: The alumina start - up recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the start - up of new devices, the start - up rate of Henan alumina increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina improved, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and stable year - on - year [54][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up was stable but lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum sector entered the seasonal off - peak season, and start - up declined [66]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate rebounded [74]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans from October to November, including full - or half - load maintenance and shutdown for a certain period [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the treasury bond futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the central value moving slightly lower in the second half of the week. The bullish factor was the expectation of loose monetary policy. Market hotspots included the progress of Sino - US game and the focus on the 15th Five - Year Plan in the Fourth Plenary Session. The Sino - US talks signaled a marginal easing, raising market risk appetite. The 15th Five - Year Plan will have multi - dimensional impacts on the bond market, and in the long - term, the interest rate center is expected to remain at a historically low level [4]. - In the short term, treasury bond futures are expected to continue to be strong under the support of risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, but attention should be paid to potential fluctuations. In the long term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge, deflation is likely to continue, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - The treasury bond futures market had a narrow - range fluctuation this week, with the central value dropping slightly in the second half. The expectation of loose monetary policy was a positive factor. Market trading hotspots were the Sino - US game and the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US talks eased tensions, and the 15th Five - Year Plan will affect the bond market in multiple ways, with long - term interest rates expected to stay low [4]. - Short - term, treasury bond futures may stay strong, but beware of fluctuations. Long - term, due to insufficient effective demand and potential deflation, the bond bull market logic may continue [8]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and trends on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity and price), and various interest rates such as reverse repurchase rates, MLF rates, and different types of repurchase rates and SHIBOR [10][12][14]. - It also shows information on capital prices, including deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and various repurchase rates, as well as data on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates and excess reserve ratios [18][25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation," which means the short - term PVC has no obvious driver and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has narrow adjustments, with an oversupply pattern. The PVC supply has a slight increase affected by maintenance, and market demand remains flat. The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 76.57% (down 0.12% week - on - week and 0.67% year - on - year), with the calcium carbide method at 74.38% (down 0.34% week - on - week and 1.91% year - on - year) and the ethylene method at 81.64% (up 0.38% week - on - week and 1.68% year - on - year). The maintenance loss of production enterprises is 8.05 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream demand has a slight improvement, but the downstream start - up is still at a low level. The start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 39.13% (up 4.04% week - on - week and 1.63% year - on - year), and the start - up rate of profile enterprises has increased by 0.54% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC gloves is stable at 41.28%. Exports have declined, with the August 2025 export volume at 28.41 tons, the export average price at $616/ton, and the cumulative export from January to August at 257.52 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of October 23, the production enterprise factory inventory production days are 5.6 days (down 11.11% week - on - week), and the social inventory has increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 103.52 tons [3]. - **Basis**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has strengthened significantly, currently at 52 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have decreased week - on - week. The average profit of calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises is - 723 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of ethylene method is - 560 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week) [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the disk is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - **Macro - policy**: It is neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there are many subsequent macro - events [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is no strategy [3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has small fluctuations due to the lack of obvious unilateral drivers. The supply - side has high overall supply despite more maintenance enterprises, the demand - side shows weak domestic demand and mediocre exports, and the cost - side has insufficient support. The spot prices in different regions are provided, such as 4600 - 4680 yuan/ton for type 5 calcium carbide materials in East China [6]. - The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3. PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Raw Material and Production**: The northwest calcium carbide price, coal medium - sized material price, and related production data such as capacity utilization rates and profits are presented in the charts. The main production area's production has rebounded after maintenance ended [17][39]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The inventories in different regions and for different production methods are also shown in the charts [47]. - **Downstream**: The downstream average start - up rate, including pipe and profile start - up rates, as well as pre - sales volume, production and sales volume, and trader sales volume are presented in the charts [74][79]. - **Export**: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but it is difficult to increase the volume due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition [82][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Although the recent rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, the easing of Sino - US trade frictions and the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting have led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategy is to go long in the short - term and conduct positive spreads for Shanghai copper futures [9]. - Zinc: Recently, the risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc has increased, and the expectation of zinc ingot outflow is strong. Coupled with the improvement of macro sentiment, zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse spreads when the export window opens [83]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly driven by macro factors. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply of primary nickel. The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the changes in warehouse receipts and positions. The recommended trading strategy for nickel is to go long at low levels in the range, and for stainless steel, it is short - term trading [180][181]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals. For example, the current value of the US dollar index is 98.9, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 0.39%, and an annual decrease of 8.79%. The current value of Shanghai copper is 87,720 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.92%, a weekly increase of 3.95%, and an annual increase of 18.91% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The possible meeting between China and the US at the end of the month eases Sino - US trade frictions, and the US inflation data in September strengthens the expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month. China's economic data in September shows that the production side is improving, but the demand side is weak, and the transformation of new and old driving forces takes time [9]. - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly declined. The suspension of mining at Freeport's Grasberg block cave mine will lead to a short - term decline in copper and gold production [9]. - **Smelting End**: With the recovery of sulfuric acid prices, the losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of smelters using long - term contract copper ore have increased. In September, domestic copper production declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [9]. - **Demand End**: The recent rise in copper prices has put pressure on downstream demand, and the operating rate of copper rods has declined [9]. - **Inventory**: The copper inventory has decreased domestically and increased externally this week, and the global visible copper inventory is relatively stable [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Recent macro events are weak, with both positive and negative factors. However, due to the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in October, the overall macro sentiment is neutral to bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to when the US government will resume normal operation and the progress of Sino - US consultations [83]. - **Raw Material End**: The domestic processing fee has been reduced, and the import processing fee has been reduced for the first time. The inflection point of supply - demand in the ore end is emerging. It is expected that the sales of overseas zinc ore in China will remain sluggish, and the import processing fee is expected to increase, while the domestic processing fee may continue to decline in the winter storage period [83]. - **Smelting End**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. In October, the production is expected to remain above 600,000 tons. The opening of the export window helps to ease the domestic oversupply situation [83]. - **Demand End**: The traditional peak season is coming to an end, but the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly consume inventory [83]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased this week. As of October 23, the zinc ingot social inventory was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week. The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [83]. 3.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The lower - than - expected CPI increase in the US in September has boosted the expectation of a Fed rate cut, supporting non - ferrous metals. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has boosted policy expectations, and market risk appetite has recovered. The recent easing of Sino - US trade relations is also a positive factor [180][181]. - **Raw Material End**: The approval of Indonesia's nickel - ore RKAB in 2026 is in progress. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively strong. The import of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased slightly, and the domestic port inventory has decreased slightly [180][181]. - **Smelting End**: The pure - nickel production remains at a high level. The average price of nickel iron has continued to decline, and Indonesian iron plants still face profit - inversion pressure. The MHP coefficient remains strong, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate has increased [180]. - **Demand End**: The stainless - steel price has rebounded from the bottom, and steel mills have frequently taken price - supporting measures. The production recovery of steel mills is limited. The demand for stainless steel is still weak at the end of the peak season, and the overseas tariff policy is changeable. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy products remain high, and the procurement demand of precursor enterprises has increased [180][181]. - **Inventory**: The global nickel inventory has continued to increase. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 250,800 tons, an increase of 0.13%, and the SHFE nickel inventory was 36,000 tons, an increase of 4.81% [180].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场氛围转好，橡胶反弹上涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场氛围转好，橡胶反弹上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）国内产区：云南产区降雨减少，原料释放趋于正常，受期现市场强劲带动，原料收购价格小幅上调。海南产区受台风影响，强降水天气增加，且气温 出现下降，岛内新鲜胶水供应明显收紧。（2）泰国产区：泰国东北部天气扰动因素减弱，供应增量；台风影响南部产区出现强降雨， 原料释放不畅，工厂 | | | | 买盘提价，带动胶水及杯胶价格均呈现上涨趋势。（3）越南产区：越南产区降水偏多，割胶作业间歇性受到干扰，原料整体产出供应有限，加工厂为保障 | | | | 订单交 付采购需求延续，支撑胶水价格相对坚挺。 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current sanctions have little impact on the European shipping routes, which are in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October to stop the price decline has shown initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are in advance. The report suggests a wait - and - see strategy as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven, and the market is in a relatively strong and volatile state. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November's empty - sailing situation [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI - US West index increased by 6.27%, SCFI - US East by 7.11%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 11.21%, SCFI - Mediterranean by 8.25%, while the comprehensive index SCFI decreased by 1.60%, and SCFIS - US West decreased by 100.00% (the reason for this extreme decrease needs further investigation). The SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 1.43% [3] - **Contract Data**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC5602, etc., the price change rates range from - 0.06% to 1.59%. Regarding the contract positions, for example, EC2606's position increased from 1399 to 1402, while EC2410's position decreased from 5583 to 4818. The month - to - month spreads like 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 also have corresponding changes [3][4] Market News and Observations - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reached a "very substantial framework agreement" with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, which will avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls [5] - US President Donald Trump is confident in reaching an agreement with Chinese leaders after the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade consultations [5] - Shipping companies like CMA CGM, Maersk, and MSC are re - flagging some ships to India, indicating the strong future growth potential of the Indian market and the effectiveness of India's maritime development strategy, in contrast to the relatively weak results of the US maritime revitalization in 2025 [5] - The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current approximately $4 billion [5] - The US and Vietnam have reached an agreement on a "reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade framework agreement" to strengthen bilateral economic relations [5] EC Market - **Market Condition**: The market is in a volatile state. The spot prices vary in late October and early November. In late October, prices range from 1350 to 2600, and in early November, they range from 1350 to 2800 [6] - **Logic**: Sanctions have little impact on the European routes. The routes are in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results and entering the second round in early November [6] - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven, and the market is in a relatively strong and volatile state [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodities rebounded from low levels, with most varieties seeing an upturn, especially industrial products, while agricultural products showed a volatile trend. The reasons include the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and US sanctions leading to a sharp rebound in oil prices, the increasing expectation of domestic policy intensification, and the weak US inflation data leading to a growing expectation of Fed rate cuts [3]. - The Sino-US trade relationship is at a critical stage with both tension and dialogue. The future direction depends on the ongoing consultations and political decisions in subsequent meetings between the two leaders [3]. - The US CPI in September was weaker than market expectations, and core inflation slowed month-on-month. Employment will be the main factor for the Fed to cut rates in the future, and inflation may not be an effective macro factor [3]. - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8% due to the slowdown in investment, consumption, and employment. Although China's actual economic growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, achieving the annual target requires a 4.4% growth in Q4. There is still room for incremental policies in Q4 [3]. - The PBOC kept the one-year and five-year LPR unchanged in October. Small and medium-sized banks are still under great pressure on net interest margins, and it is expected that the intensity of growth-stabilizing policies will increase in Q4, and there is still room for monetary policy easing [3]. - Risk appetite has increased, and commodities may rebound in the short term due to the easing of Sino-US relations, the opening of the window for incremental policy intensification, the weak US inflation data strengthening the Fed's rate cut prospects, and the uncertainty in geopolitical factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement on October 24, and Sino-US officials held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 [3]. - The US CPI in September was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.3% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.4%); core CPI was 3.0% year-on-year (market expectation: 3.1%) and 0.2% month-on-month (market expectation: 0.3%) [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's Q3 GDP growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to September, real estate development investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased by 6.1% year-on-year. To achieve the annual 5% growth target, Q4 GDP needs to grow by 4.4% [3][20]. - The PBOC maintained the one-year and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively in October. Since October, small and medium-sized banks in various provinces and cities have been intensively lowering or preparing to lower deposit rates [3][23]. PART FOUR: High-Frequency Data Tracking - On October 24, the开工率 of POY, PTA, and PTA in the polyester industry chain was 75%, 89%, and 74% respectively [26]. - The values of some other high-frequency data are also presented in the report, such as the开工率 of the polyester industry chain, blast furnace开工率, and the average wholesale prices of agricultural products [26][27][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Sanctions have raised concerns about supply, causing international oil prices to rebound strongly. OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, and the geopolitical situation cools down. Supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. However, the easing of the US attitude towards Chinese tariffs and the disturbances of European and American sanctions on supply concerns lead to a short - term volatile and slightly stronger performance of oil prices [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans to increase production moderately, and the overall supply situation is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: Different institutions have different predictions on demand, with EIA increasing the forecast, OPEC remaining unchanged, and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate forecast. Overall, it is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: US commercial crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - to - long - term)**: OPEC+ continues to increase production moderately, and the IEA believes that the market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply, which is bearish [3] - **Geopolitical (Short - term)**: Sanctions on Russia by the EU, the UK, and the US may lead to a tightening of Russian oil supply and push up oil prices, which is bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and China and the US will hold new economic and trade consultations, which is bullish [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions have raised supply concerns, and international oil prices have rebounded strongly. As of October 24, WTI crude oil rose 7.32% week - on - week, Brent crude oil rose 5.84% week - on - week, and SC crude oil rose 7.47% week - on - week [6] - **Month - to - month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads have strengthened, and internal - external spreads have rebounded and expanded [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads have strengthened [21] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads have declined [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. The US weekly crude oil production was 1362.9 million barrels per day, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories decreased, Cushing inventories decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates rose. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [101][110] - **Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of Chinese main - refineries declined, and gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [119] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined slightly, and the US dollar index oscillated [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [140]