1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - **Profit**: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - **Investment view**: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Gasoline demand**: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - **Inventory and price**: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - **PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - **Polyester operation**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's current economic pattern shows "strong supply and weak demand". In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, showing a continuous decline for four months. From January to September, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment turned negative, with real estate investment being the main drag, showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" has been implemented, with 7 major domestic economic development goals and 12 major deployments proposed, focusing on areas such as technological development, domestic demand expansion, opening up, social livelihood, and security development [3]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations, which may ease trade frictions [3]. - The market trading volume has further shrunk, indicating a short - term liquidity deterioration [3]. - Against the backdrop of policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the index is expected to return to an upward channel after the short - term adjustment, and the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to take long - term long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The economic pattern is "strong supply, weak demand", with production being strong and demand weak. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has positive implications for the economy, rated as neutral [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" brings positive factors, rated as neutral - bullish [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations may ease trade frictions, changing from bearish to neutral [3]. - **Liquidity**: The market trading volume has shrunk, rated as bearish [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take long positions opportunistically, with a focus on long - term long - term operations. The trading strategy is to take long positions unilaterally, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4,660.7; the SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3,045.8; the CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7,258.5; the CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7,419.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF main contract of the CSI 300 rose 3.36%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 rose 2.88%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 rose 4.19%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 rose 3.73% [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: The Shenwan Primary Industry Index generally rose, with communications (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.4%) and food and beverage (-0.9%) declined [10]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased. The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 30.99%, the SSE 50 futures by 30.22%, the CSI 500 futures by 26.20%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 22.30%. The open interest of the CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.91%, the SSE 50 futures by 2.65%, the CSI 500 futures by 1.21%, and the CSI 1000 futures by 4.15% [12]. - **Spread Performance**: The spread of different contracts of various stock index futures showed different degrees of discount and premium [13][14][15]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 95.2% historical quantile level, the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 33.7% historical quantile level, the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at the 42.5% historical quantile level, and the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at the 35.7% historical quantile level [19]. Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, achieving a net investment of 198.1 billion yuan. Next week, 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, along with 700 billion yuan of MLF and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase [27]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of October 23, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2,443.5 billion yuan, an increase of 21.57 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 11.7%, at the 96.7% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 349.49 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of October 24, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.02, at the 42.9% quantile level in the past ten years [33]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8%, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. Other indicators such as inflation, social financing, and foreign trade also showed different trends [36]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: In different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure, various indicators showed different trends. For example, in the real estate industry, investment continued to decline; in the consumer industry, the sales of some categories increased, while others decreased; in the manufacturing industry, different sub - sectors had different growth rates [38][42][43]. - **Profitability of Indexes and Industries**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of some indexes and industries increased, while others decreased [50][51]. Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Recent Macro Policy Developments**: A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including policies related to service consumption, special bonds, the "15th Five - Year Plan", real estate, and consumption loans. These policies aim to promote economic development, expand domestic demand, and support specific industries [55][56][57]. Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value. The consumer confidence index in October was 53.6, up 1.5 from the previous value. In August, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22,000 [65]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September 2025, the US PCE increased by 0% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 0% year - on - year. The CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [69]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [73].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC主力反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动E C主力反弹 | 影响因素 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货运价 利多 | | 10月下旬马士基报价1800-1900，HPL报价1900、OOCL报价2600，CMA报价2100，EMC报价2050、MSC报价2050，YML报价1350，ONE报价1450；11月 | | | | 上旬HPL报价2500、CMA报价2800，EMC报价2700、MSC报价2550，YML报价1350，ONE报价2550。 | | | | 【1】美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日表示，他已与中国副总理何立峰达成"一项非常实质性的框架协议"，该协议将避免对中国产品征收 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 原油反弹，沥青跟涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：原油反弹，沥青跟涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）11月地炼排产降低：根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，2025年11月份国内沥青地炼排产量为131.2万吨，环比下降29.2万吨，降幅18.2%，同比下降9.1万吨， 降幅6.5%。 | | | | （2）本周江苏新海切换生产渣油，叠加无棣鑫岳暂停沥青产出、山东胜星与广州石化进入停产检修阶段，共同造成当前产能利用率走低。 | | | | （1）需求：受资金面与北方冷空气双重影响，山东、华北市场持续低迷，山东通过下调出货价刺激下游接货且降雨减少后存在赶工情况，华东同样需 求疲软、低价频现且出货量偏低，华北成交表现一般，伴随气温下降市场需 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Report - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pulp is expected to remain loose, with an increase in exports from three South American countries in September. Although the offer price of hardwood pulp has risen for two consecutive periods, the offer price of softwood pulp has declined [4]. - Demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost pulp prices [4]. - Pulp inventory shows a narrow - range destocking trend. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a decrease of 0.003 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [4]. - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the destocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp showed a mixed trend, and overall supply is expected to remain loose [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers did not rise significantly, and paper mills' replenishment did not boost pulp prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage is recommended, and it is advisable to wait and see due to the lack of upward driving force and high old warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp futures fluctuated at a low level, and the old warehouse receipt problem has not been resolved, suppressing the near - month contract [8]. - **Spot Market**: Hardwood pulp prices were stable, while softwood pulp prices declined. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased [20]. - **Position**: As of October 24, 2025, the total position of pulp futures decreased by 10.45% from the previous week, and the position of the main contract decreased by 11.98% [23]. 3.3 Part Three: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.27% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills was stable [34][39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types were stable. In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types was stable [41][50][57]. - **International Demand**: In September 2025, the inventory - available days of European softwood pulp and hardwood pulp decreased, indicating a demand recovery. In the United States, demand was stable [75]. 3.4 Part Four: Valuation of Pulp Futures - **Basis**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle and Shandong Silver Star weakened [84]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 month spread of pulp shrank [84]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp decreased slightly, while that of hardwood pulp increased slightly [88].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-27 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格走低空间收窄 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.13万吨，与16日持平。行业开工率为76.35%，与16日持平；行业产能利用率为80.63%，与16日持平。 | | | | 本周无生产线变化，供应量持稳。下周1条产线存在点火预期，实际还需视其执行情况。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，但表现反复，近期产销走弱。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | 库存累积，企业库存6661.3万重箱，环比+233.7万重箱，环比+3.64%，同比+16.99%。折库存天数28.3天，较上期+1天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sanctions and geopolitical factors drive up crude oil prices, causing styrene prices to rise with increasing costs. However, due to various negative factors, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [4]. - The supply of pure benzene overseas has contracted, but weak demand restricts its price increase. The overall market is still affected by the sluggish downstream demand [37]. - The downstream of styrene is generally weak, with issues such as increased inventory and decreased production load in various sectors [51][60][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Multiple factors affect styrene. Supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies are all bearish; inventory and valuation are neutral. The investment view is that it will fluctuate, and the trading strategy suggests taking a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia remains severely negative, with the styrene - naphtha spread at about $253 and the styrene - benzene spread at $130 [4]. - **Demand**: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of October 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.9 tons compared to the previous period, a 10% increase. The supply side has increased maintenance, but the low operating rate of derivatives has led to a decline in demand [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples increased by 0.6 tons compared to the previous period, a 3.05% increase. The commercial inventory increased by 0.1 tons, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis is stable. There are concerns that overseas sanctions may reduce supply - side raw materials [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread is about $253, and the combined spread of benzene - naphtha and PX - naphtha is about $364 [4]. - **Valuation**: The significant rebound in crude oil prices and the contraction of overseas pure benzene supply may disrupt styrene production due to raw material supply [4]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The escalation of sanctions against Russia has led to a strong upward trend in crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [14][25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas supply has contracted, but weak demand restricts the price of pure benzene [37]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream** - **ABS**: The domestic ABS market is weak, with factors such as price, inventory, and production all showing signs of decline [51]. - **PS**: PS inventory has increased, and the production load has decreased [60]. - **EPS**: EPS inventory has accumulated [69]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream** - **Aniline**: Aniline profit has rebounded, and inventory has increased [79]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory has further decreased [90]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production profit of adipic acid has not improved [101]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production remains stable, but the price has decreased [114]. - **Household Appliances**: The year - on - year demand for household appliance exports has decreased [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - sided trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies. Before the Sino - US meeting, due to the hedging demand for policy uncertainty, short - covering led to a rebound, but the overall oscillatory trend remains unchanged. Traders should focus on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and weather changes in South America [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is rated as neutral. USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year at 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may be lowered. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%. Although there has been dry weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas recently, its impact is expected to be limited. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain. Under the current Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is slightly bullish, while that for rapeseed meal is slightly bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good, while the downstream trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory factor for soybean meal is slightly bearish, and for rapeseed meal is slightly bullish. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being destocked, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is rated as neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The profit factor is slightly bullish. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [5]. - **Valuation**: The valuation is rated as neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the recent futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The macro and policy factor is slightly bullish. From October 24th to 27th, China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Malaysia, and a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is expected at the APEC Summit on October 30th [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 marketing year increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [32][38]. - **Soybean Production and Sales**: The US soybean sowing rate and excellent - good rate data are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined. Data on NOPA soybean crushing volume, USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume, and US soybean export sales are also provided, but this week's US soybean export sales data has not been released [47][52][65]. - **Import and Cost**: The CNF premium of soybeans and the gross profit of imported soybean futures are shown. The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed are also presented, along with the US dollar - to - real exchange rate [72][75]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in China is also analyzed. The opening rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided. The trading volume and pick - up of soybean meal are normal and at a high level, respectively, while those of rapeseed meal are cautious. Feed monthly output data is also presented [81][102][114]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of live pigs, broilers, and laying hens are analyzed. The price of live pigs has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious. Data on the inventory and slaughter volume of livestock and poultry are also provided [116][120][123]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现实博弈，震荡筑底 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-27 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现实博弈，震荡筑底 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地仍面临集中上量压力，华北质量偏差的潮粮也面临保管压力，渠道上量恢复，建议关注11月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降， | | | | | 播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | | | | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - **Products with increased operating load**: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - **Products with decreased operating load**: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - **Products with stable operating load**: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - **Inland inventory**: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - **Port inventory**: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Arbitrage**: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]