1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, and gasoline blending has weakened. The economic performance of the PX industry chain has significantly diverged: the PX-naphtha price spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure; the by-product benzene price has dropped significantly, causing the PX-benzene price spread to only slightly increase to $210, weakening the overall profit of the integrated aromatics unit. High PX costs are pressuring PTA profits, but integrated enterprises have seen improved economic efficiency due to their raw material self-sufficiency advantage. New polyester plant startups have kept polyester operating rates high, and PTA consumption is approaching the historical high set in May. Although domestic demand has weakened seasonally, polyester factories have low to medium inventories and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support for demand. The costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow these trends [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators 3.1 Price and Spread Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4630 to 4605, a drop of 25; MEG domestic price increased from 3654 to 3674, a rise of 20; PTA closing price decreased from 4644 to 4616, a drop of 28; MEG closing price decreased from 3691 to 3682, a drop of 9; 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6350 to 6310, a drop of 40; short fiber basis increased from 92 to 107, a rise of 15; 12-1 spread decreased from 80 to 70, a drop of 10; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6; 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5350; the price difference between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber decreased from 1000 to 960, a drop of 40; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5700 to 5687, a drop of 13; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5700 to 5687, a drop of 13; carbonated-grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5800 to 5787, a drop of 13; foreign water bottle chip price decreased from 753 to 750, a drop of 3; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 517 to 519, a rise of 2; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10280; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3930 to 3970, a rise of 40; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14570 to 14590, a rise of 20; polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1582 to 1601, a rise of 19; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7060 to 7040, a drop of 20; hollow staple fiber 6-15D cash flow decreased from 677 to 672, a drop of 5; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7605 [2] 3.2 Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures contract of polyester staple fiber dropped 70 to 6114. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factories negotiated prices, and trader prices followed the futures slightly lower. Downstream buyers showed increased interest in purchasing at low prices, intermediate transactions increased, and factory sales were average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi-gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6070 - 6460 (cash on delivery, tax included, self-pickup), 6190 - 6580 in the North China market (cash on delivery, tax included, delivered), and 6110 - 6350 in the Fujian market (cash on delivery, tax included, delivered) [2] - Polyester bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5750 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated weakly. Supply-side quotes were mixed with stable and falling prices, the market trading atmosphere was average, downstream end-users followed up with small orders for rigid demand, and the market negotiation focus slightly declined [2] 3.3 Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct-spun staple fiber operating rate (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a rise of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 66.00% to 55.00%, a drop of 11.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

| | 铝云过 | 1640 | 30 | 电硕-工硕价差 元/吨 | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 - 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 T./ 14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 2565 | 30 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 8765 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 10025 | 100 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 39085 | -10 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 161900 | 100 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 144850 | 150 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 144750 | 50 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 2450 | 50 | | | | 价 差 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਮੇ | IF升贴水 | 15.57% | 7.35% | 4.58% | 4.33% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 10. 64% | 4.63% | 2.20% | 2.09% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 19. 15% | 12.43% | 10.81% | 11.30% | | 情 Я | IM升贴水 | 20. 17% | 15.75% | 14.05% | 13.68% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水)。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 免责 、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/12/9 | 2025/12/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 446. 1 | 443. 7 | -2. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:原油并未收复周二的跌幅,下游涤纶长丝促销效 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1402. 1 | 1391.6 | -10. 56 | 果不佳,PTA日均价下跌。PTA仍然去库存,PTA现货基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4325 | 1. 4316 | -0. 0009 | 差微涨。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 832 | 832 | 0 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 261 | 269 | 9 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.26% to 956.4 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 5.44% to 14,737 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Gold prices are maintaining high - level fluctuations as the market has fully priced in interest - rate cuts and there is uncertainty about the future path. Silver has risen significantly again due to the resonance of its "macro - industrial" dual attributes under the uncertain supply tightness. Both London spot silver and Shanghai silver futures have reached new historical highs [5]. - In the future, gold prices will remain high, and silver will show strong resilience due to the imbalance in supply - demand structure and overseas delivery risks. However, investors should be cautious of short - term sharp fluctuations in the silver market and control their positions [5]. - In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's ongoing interest - rate cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, increased great - power competition, and continued central - bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Gold and Silver Prices on December 10, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4,206.15/ounce, London silver spot at $61.34/ounce, COMEX gold at $4,234.20/ounce, COMEX silver at $61.88/ounce, AU2602 at 956.4 yuan/gram, AG2602 at 14,373 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) at 951.2 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 14,351 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the price increases were 0.6%, 5.8%, 0.6%, 6.0%, 0.5%, 5.6%, 0.5%, and 5.5% respectively [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios on December 10, 2025**: The gold ID - SHFE active price spread was - 5.2 yuan/gram, the silver ID - SHFE active price spread was - 22 yuan/kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 5.60 yuan/gram, the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) spread was - 1,254 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 66.54, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 68.43, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.06 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 1 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 8.1%, 340.0%, 22.6%, 8.7%, - 4.8%, - 5.0%, - 9.6%, and - 150.0% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **On December 9, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1,047.97 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15,973.1589 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256,572 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 54,265 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 202,307 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 54,166 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 33,221 contracts. Compared with December 8, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.53%, - 3.66%, - 11.97%, - 1.15%, - 3.20%, 11.17%, and - 10.50% respectively [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **On December 10, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 91,299 kilograms (unchanged from December 9, 2025), SHFE silver inventory was 741,845 kilograms (up 3.35% from December 9, 2025). On December 9, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 36,099,219 fine ounces (down 0.31% from December 8, 2025), and COMEX silver inventory was 455,821,771 fine ounces (down 0.07% from December 8, 2025) [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - **On December 10, 2025**: The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.61%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18%, NYMEX crude oil was 16.93, the US dollar index was 99.24, VIX was 58.39, the S&P 500 was 6,840.51, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08. Compared with December 9, 2025, the changes were 0.24%, 1.62%, - 0.09%, 1.12%, 0.14%, - 0.78%, and - 0.03% respectively [4].

| | | | | | | 三十六年 - 文艺 - 一夜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 2025/12/11 | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | 执业证号 黑色金属研究中心 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | JM2609 | 7000 - 1000 | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6000 800 | | | 12月10日 | 3149.00 | 3292. 00 | 745 ...

| | 2025年12月10日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5360 | -0. 48% | -1.80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5500 | -0. 90% | -0. 90% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4716 | 0. 26% | 0. 04% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5436 | -0.51% | -1.27% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 680 | 680 | 0. 00% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5559 | 5559 | 0. 00% | | (美元/吨) | 日芭ぎ鱼 | 540 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stocks, cautious on bonds [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Cautious on most metals, with specific strategies for each [1] - Precious Metals and New Energy: Varying outlooks, including long-term upside for gold, support for silver, etc. [1] - Black Metals: Generally cautious, with some opportunities in specific scenarios [1] - Agricultural Products: Mixed outlooks, with some commodities having short-term uncertainties [1] - Energy and Chemicals: Diverse ratings, including bearish, bullish, and neutral for different products [1] - Shipping: Bearish on the shipping market [1] Core Views - The Politburo meeting's incremental information is limited, and market focus may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference. Before that, the stock index is expected to remain strong [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short-term interest rate risks are suppressing the rise [1] - Various commodity markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro policies, and international situations, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index is expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short-term interest rate risks are suppressing the rise [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: Short-term price may fall after the digestion of positive sentiment [1] - Aluminum Oxide: Fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1] - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, but attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest rate meeting [1] - Nickel: Short-term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long-term primary nickel market is in surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices fluctuate, and short-term operations are recommended [1] - Tin: Long-term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low-buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Short-term price is expected to fluctuate, with long-term upside potential [1] - Silver: Supply-demand imbalance supports the price, but beware of sharp fluctuations [1] - Platinum: Short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and long-term low-buying is recommended [1] - Palladium: Short-term performance is better than platinum, but the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy can be maintained [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bearish outlook, with production changes and reduced production schedules [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish outlook, with capacity reduction expectations and increased terminal installations [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Price is expected to fluctuate, with factors such as the traditional peak season and increased supply [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Macro drivers provide some upward momentum, and basis trading opportunities are available [1] - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: Valuations are low, but short-term sentiment dominates, and prices fluctuate strongly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: MPOB report is negative, but German policy is positive. Wait and see [1] - Soybean Oil: Pay attention to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Supply is expected to tighten, and there is a rebound expectation [1] - Cotton: Market is currently supported but lacks drivers. Pay attention to future policies and demand [1] - Sugar: Global and domestic supplies are abundant, and short-term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - Corn: Short-term price may fall due to profit-taking, but the decline is expected to be limited [1] - Soybeans: US exports are weak, and the domestic market may be affected by customs clearance delays [1] - Pulp: Short-term price may fall after a sharp rise, and a 1-5 reverse spread strategy can be considered [1] - Logs: Fundamentals are weak, but the risk-reward ratio of shorting is low. Wait and see [1] - Hogs: Price is expected to fluctuate, with demand support and capacity yet to be fully released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Price is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical situations [1] - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, with short-term supply-demand contradictions not prominent [1] - Asphalt: Profit is high, and the supply of raw materials is sufficient [1] - Natural Rubber: Cost support is strong, and inventory may increase [1] - BR Rubber: Price is suppressed by high inventory, but the synthetic valuation is low [1] - PTA: Profit is under pressure, but polyester production is high, and exports may increase [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Price falls due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support [1] - Short Fiber: Price follows the cost closely [1] - Styrene: Market is in a narrow range, with limited support from exports and weak polymer sales [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is weak [1] - PVC: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [1] - Caustic Soda: Inventory pressure exists in Shandong, and there is a short squeeze phenomenon in the 01 contract [1] - LPG: Price is in a range after a decline, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas prices [1] Shipping - Container shipping market: Prices are lower than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively loose in December [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - On December 9th, A-share large and small indices showed mixed performance, with resource stocks falling across the board and the Shanghai Composite Index dropping; CPO concept stocks were repeatedly active, and the ChiNext Index rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.37% at 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%, the North Securities 50 fell 1.72%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 0.27%, the Wind All A fell 0.55%, the Wind A500 fell 0.54%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.56%. A-shares had a full-day turnover of 1.92 trillion yuan, compared with 2.05 trillion yuan the previous day. More than 4,000 stocks in the market declined [5] Group 2: Index Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 was 2997.9603, with a decline of 0.71%, a turnover of 43.43 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 4598.2232 million [3] - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 3923.13, with a decline of 0.51%, a turnover of 4521.14 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 7380.5835 million [3] - The closing price of the CSI 1000 had a decline of 0.57%, a turnover of 228.49 billion yuan [3] Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Shanghai 50 - Call option trading volume was 2.23 million contracts, put option trading volume was 1.33 million contracts, call option open interest was 6.74 million contracts, put option open interest was 3.96 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.67, and the open interest PCR was 0.70 [3] CSI 300 - Call option trading volume was 9.74 million contracts, put option trading volume was 5.93 million contracts, call option open interest was 19.49 million contracts, put option open interest was 10.86 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.64, and the open interest PCR was 0.79 [3] CSI 1000 - Call option trading volume was 9.78 million contracts, put option trading volume was 8.11 million contracts, call option open interest was 32.95 million contracts, put option open interest was 16.56 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.83, and the open interest PCR was 0.99 [3] Group 4: Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 - Historical volatility analysis includes historical volatility cone with 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current value, and volatility smile curve with next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 300 - Historical volatility analysis includes historical volatility cone with 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current value, and volatility smile curve with next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 1000 - Historical volatility analysis includes historical volatility cone with 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current value, and volatility smile curve with next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]

位。(3) 短纤价格继续跟随成本紧密波动。 能源化 (1) 苯乙烯市场整体维持窄幅震荡。 (2) 出口的讨论提供一定 支撑,但聚合物市场销售疲软。(3)美国汽油需求转弱,调油料 价格下行,高辛烷值组分价格下行。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 尿素 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 检修减少,开工负荷高位。(2)远洋到港,供应增加。( 3) 下游需求开工走弱。（4）原油价格走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)丙烯单体高位,成本支撑较强。(4)原油价格 走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 盘面回归基本面。 (2)后续检修较少,新产能放量,供应 PVC 压力攀升。 需求减弱, 订单不佳。 (1) 广西氧化铝投前开始送货,部分氧化铝厂延迟投产,采购节 奏放缓。（2）开工负荷较高,检修较少。(3)山东烧碱存在累 库压力,液氯价格居高不下。(4)临近交割月,01合约持仓异 常,出现空逼多现象。 (1) 地缘/关税缓和,国际油气回归基本面宽松逻辑。(2) CP/ FEI近期回补修复上行。(3)华南茂名石化乙烯装置计划检修, 届时至1月 ...