Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating for the methanol industry in the short - term, with an "Oscillating" investment view [2] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a supply - demand game pattern. Supply is under pressure with high domestic capacity utilization and rising port inventories. Demand is differentiated, with weak traditional demand and a decline in MTO开工率. Cost support is weak, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Key variables such as import volume, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends need to be focused on [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The overall domestic methanol operating load this week was 75.85%, down from last week but slightly up from the same period last year. The decline in the national operating load was mainly affected by the northwest and north China regions. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China also decreased month - on - month, and overall production decreased due to more maintenance and production - cut devices and fewer previously restored devices [2] Demand - **Products with increased operating load**: Ice acetic acid, MTBE, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde had a slight increase in operating load [2] - **Products with decreased operating load**: Methanol - to - olefins (CTO/MTO), methane chloride, formaldehyde (in some statistical dimensions), and dimethyl ether (in some statistical dimensions) saw a decline in operating load [2] - **Products with stable operating load**: DMF and methylal had stable operating loads compared to last week [2] Inventory - **Inland inventory**: Inland inventory was 36.04 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period and a 19.26% year - on - year decrease. There was significant regional differentiation. Northwest and central China had a slight reduction in inventory, while east, north, and southwest China saw inventory accumulation. The pending order was 21.57 tons, a 5.79% month - on - month decrease. It is expected that the next - period inventory may drop to 34.13 tons [2] - **Port inventory**: The domestic methanol port inventory was 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton month - on - month increase and a 36.39% year - on - year increase. East China's inventory increased by 3 tons, while south China's decreased by 0.92 tons. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate, putting downward pressure on the market [2] Profit - Domestic methanol profits were generally poor, with most of the main process profits shrinking or remaining in the red. Coal - to - methanol profits weakened significantly, coke - oven gas - to - methanol profits decreased month - on - month, and natural - gas - to - methanol remained in the red. The industrial chain profits also moved downwards, with most downstream industries in production losses [2] Macro and Geopolitics - The US Treasury official Scott Bessent completed trade negotiations with China, indicating that a successful framework had been reached for leaders to discuss. There were also issues with port unloading, which had an impact on the market [2] Investment Views - The methanol market is in a supply - demand game. Short - term market may continue to be under pressure. Focus on core variables such as import volume changes, MTO开工率 recovery, and coal price trends [2] Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Arbitrage**: Go long on MA1 - 5 spread [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 24, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Group 2: Market Review Index Performance - The closing price of SSE 50 was 1212.08, with a daily increase of 60.21, a turnover of 302.69044 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 0.56 billion [3]. - The closing price of CSI 300 was not available, with a daily increase of 0.30, a turnover of 420.8 billion yuan, and a trading volume of 200.46 billion [3]. - The closing price of CSI 1000 was not provided, with a daily decrease of 0.06 [3]. Overall Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.07%, the STAR 50 Index fell 0.3%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.14%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.37%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.29% [4]. - A - share trading volume was 1.66 trillion yuan for the day, compared with 1.69 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Option Volume - For SSE 50, the trading volume of call options was 2.27 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.60 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 1.32 [3]. - For CSI 300, the trading volume of call options was 6.35 million contracts, and that of put options was 6.54 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.74 [3]. - For CSI 1000, the trading volume of call options was 24.00 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.98 million contracts, with a trading volume PCR of 0.85 [3]. Option Open Interest - For SSE 50, the open interest of call options was 3.59 million contracts, and that of put options was 2.41 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.67, and the total open interest was 6.00 million contracts [3]. - For CSI 300, the open interest of call options was 10.41 million contracts, and that of put options was 4.06 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.39, and the total open interest was 15.42 million contracts [3]. - For CSI 1000, the open interest of call options was 25.99 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.26 million contracts, with an open - interest PCR of 0.47 [3]. Group 4: Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Historical volatility was analyzed using a historical volatility cone, showing different percentile values and current values for different time - periods (HV5, HV20, HV60, etc.) [3][4]. - The volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was presented [3][4]. CSI 300 Volatility - Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility was analyzed using a historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was shown [4]. CSI 1000 Volatility - Historical volatility was analyzed with a historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was provided [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel industry maintains a weak - stable state with dual growth in supply and demand, but price elasticity is limited. It is recommended not to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, they have low valuations and cost support. It is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. - Regarding coking coal and coke, the expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. Industrial clients can consider selling hedging on part of the spot when the price soars [3]. - For iron ore, it is relatively weak compared to other commodities. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekly industrial data shows improvement, with social inventory reduction and a weak - stable supply - demand balance. The inventory level is similar to 2023 and higher than last year, suppressing price elasticity. "Silver October" may see a peak in demand, but the market is cautious. Cost - end differentiation may squeeze steel mill profits. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread below 150 for the 01 contract in arbitrage trading [3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - They have low production profits, limited supply growth, and cost support due to rising coal prices. High iron - water production drives strong demand. Current silicon - iron inventory is normal, and the futures valuation is not high. With a warm macro - environment, it is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The probability of the second round of coke price increase is high next week. The coking coal spot market is strong, with most prices hitting new highs this year due to supply disruptions and high iron - water demand. However, the high price may face uncertainty in breaking through previous highs, and it may be difficult to implement the coke price increase due to weak downstream demand. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging [3]. Iron Ore - Commodities are generally rising, but iron ore is relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing, and there is a risk of supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter. The expected shipment from Simandou still restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 4. Key Data on October 23 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; I2605 at 756 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton, up 3.02%; JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton, up 4.17% [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; I2601 at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton, up 4.21%; JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton, up 5.14% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.40; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton; the coking on - paper profit was 94.2 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Super - special powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; Coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - **Basis**: HC main contract basis was 54 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; I main contract basis was 38 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 141.6 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan; JM main contract basis was 81.5 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The shipping derivatives market shows mixed trends with some indices rising and others falling. The EC contracts are mostly in a state of slight fluctuations, and the shipping market is affected by various factors such as the situation in the Red Sea and international trade policies [3][4]. - The EC market is in a state of shock. The spot price has changed from late - October to early - November. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage, and the first round of price - holding in late October has initially achieved results, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are expected [5]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven and the market is in a relatively strong shock state [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. Different routes show different trends, with SCFI - US West up 31.88%, SCFIS - US West down 1.60%, SCFI - US East up 16.35%, SCFI - Northwest Europe up 7.21%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe down 1.43%, and SCFI - Mediterranean up 3.53% [4]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts, most show slight fluctuations. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1374.8, up 1.59%; EC2608 is at 1478.9, up 0.28%; EC2510 is 1136.1, down 0.04% [4]. - **Positions**: The positions of EC contracts also have changes. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1402, an increase of 3; EC2608 position is 1212, an increase of 28; while some positions have decreased, such as EC2410 with a decrease of 765 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 657.0, 211.1, and 621.3 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 5.3, 5.7, and 4.4 [4]. Market News - Shipping companies are delaying their return to the Red Sea route. Even though there is a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, it is unlikely to quickly resume the Suez Canal route in the short term due to factors like complex route network adjustment, repeated security risks in the Red Sea, and potential port congestion [4]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [4]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected as the power to adjust tariff scope has shifted to the USTR and the Commerce Department [4]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to meet with China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the further escalation of Sino - US tariffs [4]. - A White House envoy will go to the Middle East to promote the implementation of the Gaza agreement [4]. - Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video meeting with the EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, and they agreed to hold an "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism meeting in Brussels as soon as possible [4]. EC Market - **Market Condition**: The EC market is in a state of shock. The spot prices of shipping companies have changed from late October to early November. For example, in late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, while in early November, HPL quoted 2500 [5]. - **Logic**: The current sanctions have little impact on the European line. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the second round in early November is underway. Future price - holding actions are expected. However, factors such as Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading, and November's empty sailings need to be monitored [5]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven and the market is in a relatively strong shock state [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the steel industry is weak and stable, with both supply and demand increasing, and the inventory level is similar to that in 2023 and higher than that of last year, suppressing the upward price elasticity. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for steel, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - rebar spread when it is below 150 for the 01 contract. [3] - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips. [3] - The expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, and the coking coal futures have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for some spot when the market rallies. [3] - Iron ore is relatively weak, with marginal weakening in supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton with a gain of 17 yuan (0.55%); HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan (0.62%); I2605 at 756 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.5 yuan (0.33%); J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton with a gain of 55.5 yuan (3.02%); JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton with a gain of 53 yuan (4.17%). [1] - For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton with a gain of 13 yuan (0.43%); HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton with a gain of 21 yuan (0.65%); I2601 at 777 yuan/ton with a gain of 3 yuan (0.39%); J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton with a gain of 71.5 yuan (4.21%); JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton with a gain of 61.5 yuan (5.14%). [1] - The cross - month spreads on October 23: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton with a change of - 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton with a change of - 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton with a change of - 3 yuan; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton with a change of 0 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton with a change of 8.5 yuan. [1] - The spread/ratio/profit on October 23: the coil - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton with a gain of 6 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.95 with a change of - 0.01; the coal - coke ratio was 1.40 with a change of - 0.01; the rebar disk profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton with a change of - 31.2 yuan; the coking disk profit was 94.2 yuan/ton with a change of - 6.67 yuan. [1] Spot Market - On October 23, the spot prices: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton with a gain of 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton with a gain of 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 105.65 with a gain of 0.55. [1] - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton with a gain of 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton with a gain of 20 yuan; the billet - product spread was 280 yuan/ton with a change of - 10 yuan; Rizhao Port PB was 783 yuan/ton with a gain of 2 yuan. [1] - The spot prices of other products: Qingdao Super Special Powder was 708 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimao Du Coking Coal was 1310 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke was 1480 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 782 yuan/ton with a gain of 1 yuan. [1] - The basis on October 23: HC main contract was 54 yuan/ton with a gain of 1 yuan; RB main contract was 159 yuan/ton with a change of - 3 yuan; I main contract was 38 yuan/ton with no change; J main contract was - 141.6 yuan/ton with a change of - 58.5 yuan; JM main contract was 81.5 yuan/ton with a change of - 49 yuan. [1] Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The weekly industrial data continued to improve, with social inventory reduction, overall supply and demand increasing, and the industry in a weak and stable state. The improvement of hot - rolled coils was more obvious, while building materials were relatively neutral. The market participants were cautious, and the demand lacked explosive power, suppressing price elasticity. The cost side was structurally differentiated. It was recommended to wait and see or use an oscillatory approach, and observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - rebar spread for the 01 contract when it was below 150. [3] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The valuation was low, and the cost was supported. The production profit was poor, and the supply was difficult to increase. The demand from hot metal was strong, and the inventory pressure was not large. It was recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips. [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The expectation of the second - round coke price increase was strengthening. The coking coal spot prices were rising, and the futures prices had a large increase. However, it was not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial customers could consider selling hedging for some spot when the market rallied. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The commodity market was generally strong, but iron ore was relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. It was recommended to wait and see in the short term. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - From October 24th to 27th, it is expected that China and the US will meet in Malaysia. Due to risk - aversion needs and poor domestic ship - buying and crushing margins, short - sellers significantly reduced their positions today, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The M01 contract is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - long positions [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On October 23rd, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 62, with a decrease of 33; in Tianjin and Rizhao, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 42, with a decrease of 33; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2, with a decrease of 13; in Dongguan, it was - 18, with a decrease of 33; in Zhanjiang, it was 22, with a decrease of 33; in Fangcheng, it was 12, with a decrease of 43. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 58, with a decrease of 26 [6]. - The M1 - 5 spread was 168, with an increase of 26; the RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with an increase of 27; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 599, with an increase of 21 [6][7]. 2. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, with a decrease of 20; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 265 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 213 [7]. - As of October 14th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9% [9]. 3. Supply and Demand and Inventory Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season (53.5 bushels/acre) may still be revised down. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and the early - sowing work is going smoothly. In October, domestic soybean arrivals are expected to increase, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the feed addition ratio is high. The downstream trading volume seems light, but the pick - up is good [9]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil mill soybean meal inventory has decreased, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has decreased [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information relevant to the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, due to the adverse impact of consecutive typhoons around the National Day on sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, along with the seasonal supply gap between old and new crops after the holiday, there is a driving force for sugar prices to be seasonally strong. In the medium - term, considering the favorable rain and heat conditions in the southern main sugar - producing areas this year and the good growth of sugarcane, the rebound space of sugar prices is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - **Spot Prices**: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), the price is 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Yunnan (Kunming), it's 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunnan (Dali), 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong (Rizhao), 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Futures Prices**: SR01 is 5457 yuan, up 31 yuan; SRO5 is 5408 yuan, up 25 yuan; the spread between SR01 - 05 is 49 yuan, up 6 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1424, up 0.0008; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - **International Commodity Prices**: The ice raw sugar主力 is 15.13, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 64.35, unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures price may be priced in line with the Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 23, 2025, SP2601 was 5250, up 0.57% day - on - day and 1.90% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4862, up 0.16% day - on - day and 1.04% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5290, up 0.38% day - on - day and 1.46% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous silver star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; coniferous Russian needle was 5100, unchanged day - on - day and up 2.00% week - on - week; broadleaf goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: Chilean silver star was 680, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian goldfish was 530, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged month - on - month [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean silver star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162, up 4.50% [5] - **Domestic Production**: On October 23, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 23.5 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 205.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons from the previous period, a 0.9% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.6 tons [5][10] - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper was 20.70 tons, copperplate paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.46 tons, and white cardboard was 36.00 tons [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 23, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 238, and the silver star basis was 638 [5] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous silver star was - 59, and broadleaf goldfish was - 94 [5]