投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | . No on and are | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 6 13 | | | | 14 | A CONSULT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT CARACT CARA | | | 11 | | | 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/12/10 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on the expected difference in the USDA report. Brazil's sowing progress has reached 90%, and there is no obvious driver for weather speculation. The premium is expected to face pressure later, and the 105 is expected to fluctuate weakly. [9][10] - In the short - term, the market should pay attention to the expected difference in the USDA report. With Brazil's sowing progress at 90%, there is no obvious weather - related speculative driver, and the premium is expected to face downward pressure later. [10] Summary by Related Catalog Basis and Spread Data - On December 9, 43% soybean meal spot basis: in Tianjin it was 52, in Rizhao 12, in Zhangjiagang 32, in Dongguan 9, in Zhanjiang 12, and in Fangcheng - 8. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 53. M1 - 5 was 245 with a decrease of 7, and RM1 - 5 was 41 with a decrease of 12. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 650 with an increase of 15. [6][7] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. [9] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. [9] - As of November 26, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago, but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. [10] - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is expected to improve in the next two weeks, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline seasonally. There is uncertainty about the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to the reserve release. [10] Demand Situation - The high inventory of livestock and poultry products and the slow de - stocking of production capacity support feed demand. However, the current pig farming is in a loss, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. [10] - Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently. [10] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels. The de - stocking of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased this week. [10]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/12/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | DRO01 | 1.30 | -0.29 | DR007 | 1.45 | 0.52 | | GC001 | 1.43 | -1.00 | GC007 | 1.50 | -0.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1年期国债 J 10年期国债 | 1.35 1.84 | 1.40 -1.20 | 5年期国债 10年期美债 | 1.63 4.14 | 0.60 0.40 | | 1 and Real Property | | | Pro CLICIL | 10 1L + 1 410 11 . | 117 1 | | -0.60 | | | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel products are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on macro - level disturbances. The supply - demand of five steel products shows a weakening trend, with pressure on furnace materials. Plate products have prominent inventory - reduction pressure, which restricts price increases and the willingness to hold goods. Iron - water production decline has a negative impact on cost support [1]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon prices will follow the black - metal sector to fluctuate, with insufficient driving forces. Due to weakening steel prices, shrinking steel - mill profits, and reduced iron - water production, the direct demand for alloys is expected to decline. Although alloy - factory profits are poor, production remains relatively high, leading to supply over - capacity and inventory accumulation [2]. - For coking coal and coke, futures prices have dropped significantly, and there is no significant positive news from major meetings this week. On the spot side, a second round of coke price cuts is expected, and coking - coal auctions are weak. On the futures side, prices have hit new lows after breaking key positions, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [2]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure. In the short - term, port arrivals are increasing, and in the medium - term, inventory is expected to continue to rise under the pressure of reduced iron - water production. The decline in steel - mill profitability has affected production intentions, and the inventory pressure makes it difficult for the price to break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: On December 9th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3111.00 yuan/ton (down 59.00 yuan, - 1.86%), HC2610 at 3258.00 yuan/ton (down 51.00 yuan, - 1.54%), etc. For near - month contracts (main contracts), RB2605 closed at 3079.00 yuan/ton (down 49.00 yuan, - 1.57%), HC2605 at 3252.00 yuan/ton (down 47.00 yuan, - 1.42%), etc [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On December 9th, the cross - month spread of RB2605 - 2610 was - 32.00 yuan/ton, the volume - to - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.06, etc [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On December 9th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3240.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3140.00 yuan/ton (down 30.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3230.00 yuan/ton (down 40.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 30.00 yuan), etc [1]. - **Raw Materials**: On December 9th, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 667.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1170.00 yuan/ton, etc [1]. Investment Strategies - **Steel Products**: Adopt a low - level oscillation approach for single - side trading; conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage or use options for procurement and sales [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Investment clients can short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated - strike options to protect their spot positions [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, before the interest rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for silver in the short - term, while gold can still be bought on dips [3][4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle. With global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition, the risk of US dollar credit will increase. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, London gold spot decreased by 0.8% to $4180.79 per ounce, London silver spot decreased by 0.6% to $57.97 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.8% to $4208.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 0.7% to $58.40 per ounce. AU2512 decreased by 0.7% to 948.68 yuan per gram, AG2512 decreased by 0.7% to 13600 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 946.73 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 13602 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios on December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.95 yuan per gram (up 6.6%), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 2 yuan per kilogram (down 108.7%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 4.57 yuan per gram (up - 21.7%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 1154 yuan per kilogram (up - 2.1%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 69.76 (up 0.0%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 72.07 (up - 0.1%), AU2602 - 2512 was 2.86 yuan per gram (up - 21.0%), and AG2602 - 2512 (not given on December 9) had a previous value of 15 yuan per kilogram with a change of - 53.3% [4]. 2. Position Data - As of December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11% to 1049.11 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.23% to 15888.54201 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, it increased by 4.91% to 266308 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.19% to 61644 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 15.89% to 204664 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it decreased by 8.12% to 60904 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.32% to 18840 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.38% to 37119 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 91299 kilograms (0.00% change), and SHFE silver inventory increased by 2.65% to 717788 kilograms. On December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.27% to 36213039 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% to 456143022 troy ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.01% to 7.08. The US dollar index increased by 0.12% to 99.10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.28% to 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.72% to 4.17%, the VIX increased by 8.11% to 16.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6846.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.14% to 58.85 [4]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.92% to 951.54 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.68% to 13607 yuan per kilogram [4]. - With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, although the market has largely priced in a 26bp interest rate cut in December, "Fed Chair" Hammond said that Powell may also think that waiting is prudent, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut paths. Coupled with the Bank of Japan's continuous strengthening of the possibility of a December interest - rate hike, market sentiment has become cautious [4].

ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 457.6 | 446. 1 | -11.50 | 成交情况: PTA: 原油行情偏弱,对PTA成本支撑减弱,PTA行情小 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1368. 6 | 1402. 1 | 33. 57 | 跌。PTA仍然去库存,现货基差上涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4115 | 1. 4325 | 0. 0210 | | | | CFR中国PX | 841 | 832 | -9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 278 | 261 | -17 | | | | PT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, and gasoline blending has weakened. The economic performance of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the sharp decline in the by - product benzene price has led to only a slight increase in the PX - benzene spread to $210, weakening the overall profit of integrated aromatics units [2]. - PX costs are high, and PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have significantly improved economic benefits due to their raw material self - sufficiency advantage. New polyester installations have pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventory and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support for demand [2]. - The costs of bottle chips and staple fibers follow the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price and Spread Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 4650 to 4630, a drop of 20; MEG domestic price decreased from 3699 to 3654, a drop of 45; PTA closing price decreased from 4694 to 4644, a drop of 50; MEG closing price decreased from 3701 to 3691, a drop of 10 [2]. - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6355 to 6350, a drop of 5. The short - fiber basis increased from 90 to 92, an increase of 2; the 12 - 1 spread decreased from 90 to 80, a decrease of 10 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1005 to 1000, a decrease of 5. The price of 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 5350 [2]. - The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all decreased by 2, and the price of outer - market water bottle chips decreased by 2 [2]. - The price of T32S pure polyester yarn remained unchanged at 10280, and the processing fee increased from 3925 to 3930, an increase of 5. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300, and the profit increased from 1575 to 1582, an increase of 7 [2]. - The price of cotton 328 decreased from 14580 to 14570, a drop of 10 [2]. - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7085 to 7060, a drop of 25, and the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D increased from 670 to 677, an increase of 7 [2]. - The price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7680 to 7605, a drop of 75 [2]. Market Conditions - In the staple fiber market, the main futures of polyester staple fiber fell 30 to 6182. The prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were lowered, and the prices of traders declined weakly. Downstream procurement demand was poor, and factory sales were tepid [2]. - In the bottle chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5760 yuan/ton, with the average price down 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures were running weakly, supply - side offers were mixed, the market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream terminal rigid demand followed up with small orders, with the market negotiation focus slightly declining [2]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales rate increased from 50.00% to 66.00%, an increase of 16.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Canadian pulp mills have reduced production, leading to positive factors on the pulp supply side. There is no new warehouse receipt registration, resulting in a tight supply of delivery resources for near - month contracts. However, new warehouse receipt registration occurs when the price on the market rises to 5,500 yuan/ton, limiting further upward potential [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 9, 2025, SP2601 was 5386 with a daily decline of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 1.09%; SP2512 was 4704 with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2605 was 5464 with a daily increase of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 1.83% [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 9, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.90%; Russian coniferous pulp was 5250 with no daily or weekly change; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes (dollars/ton)**: In December 2025, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680 with no monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 with a monthly increase of 1.89%; Chilean Venus was 590 with no monthly change [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 with no monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 with a monthly increase of 1.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 69.1, unchanged from September; broad - leaf pulp imports were 131.8, a 2.80% decrease from September [6] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In October 2025, the shipments were 173, a 7.49% decrease from the previous period [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, broad - leaf pulp production was 23.9; chemimechanical pulp production was 23.8 [6] - **Inventory** - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, it was 210.7 [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, it was 21.0 [6] - **Demand** - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, double - offset paper production was 20.70; coated paper production was 8.60; tissue paper production was 28.52; white cardboard production was 37.70 [6] 3.3 Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Recently, the supply of wood chips in the international market has been continuously tight, and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase for bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) orders received in December in Asia [6] - **Demand - side**: Recently, water - pulp paper manufacturers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of price increases for white cardboard has been good, and double - offset paper manufacturers have issued price - increase letters again, with the implementation situation to be monitored [6] - **Inventory - side**: As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.1 tons, a decrease of 7.1 tons from the previous period, a 3.3% decline. Inventory has continued to show a slight downward trend, and the inventory of sample ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The demand for lithium carbonate is strongly supported, but there is a short - term correction pressure due to the previous rapid increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 92,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 90,350 yuan/ton [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: the price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 92,580 yuan/ton with a - 0.24% change; lithium carbonate 2601 is 91,000 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change; lithium carbonate 2602 is 91,340 yuan/ton with a - 1.23% change; lithium carbonate 2603 is 91,240 yuan/ton with a - 1.23% change; lithium carbonate 2604 is 92,560 yuan/ton with a - 1.3% change [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,165 yuan/ton [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,610 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,535 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 8,675 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 9,925 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,095 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,800 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,700 yuan/ton with a 250 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,700 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan increase [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 50 yuan/ton with a 2,040 - yuan change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 340 yuan/ton with a - 40 - yuan change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan change [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 113,602 tons with a - 2,366 - ton change; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 20,767 tons with a - 3,557 - ton change; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,695 tons with a 1,711 - ton change; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 49,140 tons with a - 520 - ton change; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,920 tons with a - 200 - ton change [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,487 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 3,021 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 93,100 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 3,898 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - The new energy storage installed capacity in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan", accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new energy storage exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3] Market Situation - The peak season of the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) continues, the production schedule of the material end is basically flat, and the inventory transfer chain of "upstream - downstream - terminal" is smooth. In December, the production schedule increases slightly, and the tight spot supply of lithium spodumene restricts the large - scale resumption of production on the supply side. The market generally expects the downstream mine to resume production after obtaining the license in mid - December [3]

投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/9 金融衍生品中心 李泽便 从业资格号:F0251925 数据米源: Wind,国贸期货研 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 指数 3019. 362 0. 58 1252. 39 上证50 44. 90 4621. 7545 4967. 16 199. 62 沪深300 0. 81 7423.0462 中证1000 4184. 75 240. 92 1. 10 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 持仓量 认洁期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 2. 39 2. 79 0. 74 3. 91 1.51 0. 63 6. 58 3.79 沪深300 5. 34 13. 92 8. 58 0. 62 18. 83 8. 39 0. 80 10. 43 中证1000 32. 50 25. 49 14. 35 0. 78 16. 25 16. 26 11. 13 1. 00 中证1000P ...