Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it provides trend judgments for various sectors and varieties, including "Bullish", "Bearish", "Sideways", and "Watch". Core Viewpoints The recent Politburo meeting released limited incremental information, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work. In the short - term, investors should be wary of potential "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments after policy announcements. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, presenting a layout window. For different sectors and varieties, the report analyzes their respective fundamentals, macro - factors, and market conditions to provide investment suggestions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides an opportunity to build long positions, and investors can use the futures discount structure to optimize investment costs and odds [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement. There are opportunities to go long on dips as market risk appetite recovers [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Industry drivers are limited, but risk appetite recovery makes aluminum prices run strongly. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Zinc fundamentals have improved, and it is advisable to wait and see before the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. Nickel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and stainless steel futures will oscillate. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term and has upward potential in the long - term. Silver is supported by supply - demand imbalance but is subject to high volatility. Platinum is likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be maintained [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Related Products**: Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes in different regions and reduced production schedules of downstream products. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate with capacity reduction expectations and other factors. Lithium carbonate has short - term sharp increases due to various factors [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coils, macro - drivers strengthen in December, providing some upward momentum. It is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market after price increases. Avoid chasing high prices for single - side trading and consider participating in spot - futures positions. Iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts, while the near - month is restricted by production cuts. Other products such as silicon iron, glass, and coke also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton and Sugar**: Cotton is in a situation of "supported but lacking drivers", and attention should be paid to future policies and market conditions. Sugar has a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below. Other agricultural products such as soybeans, pulp, and grains also have their own market analyses and investment suggestions [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil and fuel oil will oscillate due to factors such as OPEC+ production suspension, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions. Bitumen is bearish, and rubber - related products have different market trends and investment suggestions [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Various chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have their own market analyses based on factors like cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/12 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | | 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 443.7 | 439.7 | -4. 00 | 成交情况: PT ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The economic performance of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, resulting in only a slight increase in the PX - benzene spread to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. PX costs are high and PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises have significantly improved economic benefits due to the advantage of self - supplied raw materials. New polyester installations have pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May. Although domestic demand has weakened seasonally, polyester factories have low inventory and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive export growth and provide additional support for demand. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow accordingly [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price and Cost Data - PTA spot price increased from 4605 to 4640, with a change of 35; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3674 to 3631, with a change of - 43; PTA closing price increased from 4616 to 4664, with a change of 48; MEG closing price decreased from 3682 to 3599, with a change of - 83; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6310 to 6355, with a change of 45; short - fiber basis remained unchanged at 107; 1 - 2 spread decreased from 10 to 6, with a change of - 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5350; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 960 to 1005, with a change of 45; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5687 to 5689, with a change of 2; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5687 to 5689, with a change of 2; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5787 to 5789, with a change of 2; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 750 to 755, with a change of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 519 to 505, with a change of - 14; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10280; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3970 to 3925, with a change of - 45; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price increased from 14590 to 14630, with a change of 40; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1601 to 1556, with a change of - 45; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7040; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 672 to 656, with a change of - 16; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7605 [2] Market and Production Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, with a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales remained unchanged at 55.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3]

Group 1: Market Interest Rate and Bond Information - DRO01 closed at 1.28 with a -1.14bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a -0.05bp change, GC001 at 1.26 with a -15.50bp change, GC007 at 1.51 with a 0.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.20bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a 0.70bp change, 5 - year at 1.62 with a -0.10bp change, 10 - year at 1.83 with a -1.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.13 with a -1.30bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Central Bank Policy and Economic Outlook - This week, there are 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 107.6 billion, 156.3 billion, 79.3 billion, 180.8 billion, and 139.8 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [4] Group 3: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4552, down 0.86%; the SSE 50 at 2977, down 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 7083, down 1.02%; and the CSI 1000 at 7312, down 1.30%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8571 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.6 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540, down 0.8%; IH当月 at 2970, down 0.4%; IC当月 at 7074, down 0.7%; and IM当月 at 7305, down 0.9% [5] - IF trading volume was 106,663, down 13.1%; IF open interest was 269,076, down 2.7%; IH trading volume was 46,276, down 9.6%; IH open interest was 93,141, down 3.7%; IC trading volume was 112,902, down 3.1%; IC open interest was 248,093, down 1.6%; IM trading volume was 191,043, up 7.7%; IM open interest was 368,357, down 0.2% [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Investment Suggestions - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected overnight, but there was a large divergence within the Fed on the future rate - cut rhythm, with contradictions between inflation recovery and employment pressure [6] - The stock index weakened in a volatile manner throughout the day yesterday. The Politburo Meeting released limited incremental information recently, and the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work [6] - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the meeting policies are implemented. In the long run, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium and Discount Information - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 12.61%, 6.54%, 4.50%, and 4.15% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.08%, 4.92%, 1.89%, and 1.87% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.47%, 9.60%, 9.83%, and 10.63% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 4.61%, 12.37%, 12.55%, and 12.91% respectively [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of wood chips in the international market has been tight recently, and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a $20/ton increase in the price of bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) for orders received in December in Asia. On the demand side, pulp paper companies have recently issued price increase notices, with only white cardboard showing good implementation. Double-offset paper has issued another round of price increase notices, and their implementation needs attention. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory in major Chinese pulp ports decreased by 710,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.3% decline, showing a continuous slight de-stocking trend for two consecutive weeks. The pulp futures increased significantly with heavy positions during the night session, but there is no corresponding news from the industrial side, so the short - term risk is high. It is recommended to avoid unilateral trading and suggest a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (Yuan/ton)**: On December 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5508, up 2.76% day - on - day and 0.22% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4810, up 1.99% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5586, up 2.76% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices (Yuan/ton)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, up 1.82% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5250, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4500, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - market Quotes (Dollars/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 680, unchanged; Japanese pulp was 540, up 1.89% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs (Yuan/ton)**: Chilean Silver Star was 5559, unchanged; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425, up 1.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, unchanged from September; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.318 million tons, down 2.80% from September. The monthly domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated. The shipment volume of pulp to China decreased by 7.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 2.107 million tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 210,000 tons. The port inventory showed a de - stocking trend [6]. - **Demand**: The production volume of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated monthly [6].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 the first 流的衍生品综合服务商 DATE 入 期 市 市 服 热线 官 方 网 站 需 有 客 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 0）中长朗观点。中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用网险，全球央行机构勾居 民的配置需求延续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移,建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的偏息均源于公元可获得的资料，国资货分文推商工靠。但不对上这信息的准确性及完整性的任何保证。本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别发资者持放的投资目标、仅资机动需要，投资 者:自行列颐本报告中的任河意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。据此:投资，责任自负。本报告似向推定客户推选。未经国贸联货投资许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为您的成团贸雅货的专贸 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC EN B 4月1日 1 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2 ...

【钢材】供需两弱,偏弱震荡 周四钢联周度数据延续供需两弱,铁水产量本周跌至228+,炉料短期依旧承压。日内期现价格下跌,有关于钢材出口的未 经证实的小作文,看后续会否实锤,但在当前敏感的市场环境里,只要没有被辟谣,可能都会带来一波情绪波动的交易 最近板材的去库压力也偏大,总体还是要关注板材的压力释放。当前铁水产量快速下降触发阶段性负反馈,成本支撑弱 12月先测试铁水产量压力,再看冬储补库节点启动。重要会议先后召开,增量亮点不多,新驱动不清晰。 | | | | | | | | | - FAR ANTERN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/12 | | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the market performance of related indices, trading volume, open interest, and volatility analysis of stock index options [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Index Performance**: On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29%; the ChiNext Index fell 0.02%; the Northbound 50 Index fell 0.85%; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.03%; the Wind All - A Index rose 0.12%; the Wind A500 Index rose 0.03%; the CSI A500 Index rose 0.05%. A - shares traded 1.79 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.92 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 2988.6375, down 0.31%, with a turnover of 41.51 billion yuan and a trading volume of 1.01334 billion; the CSI 300 closed at 4591.8273, down 0.14%, with a turnover of 4014.53 billion yuan and a trading volume of 169.11 million; the CSI 1000 closed at 7408.2441, up 0.37%, with a turnover of 3602.45 billion yuan and a trading volume of 215.61 million [3]. CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the call option volume was 0.75 million contracts, the put option volume was 3.55 million contracts, the total option volume was 4.3 million contracts, the call option open interest was 2.03 million contracts, the put option open interest was 1.52 million contracts, and the total open interest was 3.55 million contracts. For the CSI 300, the call option volume was 8.75 million contracts, the put option volume was 11.79 million contracts, the total option volume was 20.54 million contracts, the call option open interest was 11.28 million contracts, the put option open interest was 7.37 million contracts, and the total open interest was 18.65 million contracts. For the CSI 1000, the call option volume was 24.06 million contracts, the put option volume was 13.55 million contracts, the total option volume was 37.61 million contracts, the call option open interest was 10.51 million contracts, the put option open interest was 16.43 million contracts, and the total open interest was 26.94 million contracts [3]. - **PCR Indicators**: The SSE 50's volume PCR was 0.69, and the open - interest PCR was 0.75; the CSI 300's volume PCR was 0.60, and the open - interest PCR was 0.78; the CSI 1000's volume PCR was 0.78, and the open - interest PCR was 0.98 [3]. Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility**: The historical volatility and historical volatility cone of the SSE 50 are presented, along with the volatility smile curve of the SSE 50's next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 300 Volatility**: The historical volatility and historical volatility cone of the CSI 300 are presented, along with the volatility smile curve of the CSI 300's next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: The historical volatility and historical volatility cone of the CSI 1000 are presented, along with the volatility smile curve of the CSI 1000's next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious driving force for speculation in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to face pressure later. The news of delayed customs clearance in China is positive for the near - month contracts and positive spreads. Affected by the news, M05 is expected to be range - bound in the short term and may weaken later [7]. - In the supply side, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the US production area from August to September. The adjustment of exports has some uncertainties. The 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina has different situations, and the weather in the two countries has different impacts on sowing. In the demand side, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand, but the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies may affect the long - term supply. In the inventory side, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January [6][7]. Summary by Related Content Basis and Spread Data - On December 10, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 96, down 16; the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 36, down 16; in Rizhao it was 6, down 6; in Zhangjiagang it was - 4, down 36; in Dongguan it was - 34, down 36; in Zhanjiang it was - 24, down 36; in Fangcheng it was - 44, down 36. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 34, down 28. The M1 - 5 spread was 290, up 45 [4]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 646, down 4 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0269, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 143, up 3. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 245 yuan/ton [5]. - The report shows the trends of Brazilian soybean CNF premium and imported soybean crushing margin in 2025, as well as the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans, feed enterprises' soybean meal, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and the开机 and压榨情况 (start - up rate and crushing volume) of major domestic oil mills [5]. Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The USDA's forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The Brazilian new - crop output in 25/26 is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. The weather in Brazil and Argentina has different impacts on sowing. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have seasonal inventory depletion, and the supply of domestic soybean meal in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6][7]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies to control pig inventories and weights may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the downstream trading of soybean meal is normal recently [7]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased slightly this week [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The current shipping market is in a volatile pattern, mainly affected by index fluctuations, long - short games, and the transition of the main contract. The market is sensitive to short - term factors such as December contract delivery and freight rate implementation, with frequent long - short switches. The focus is shifting from the December contract to subsequent main contracts, but it is still disturbed by short - term factors. The future trend depends on whether the January peak - season expectations can be fulfilled. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shipping Market News - CMA CGM's INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, signaling the large - scale return of container ships to the Red Sea route [6]. - The traffic volume through the Bab el Mande Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6]. - The FEWB route has a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9% in December due to shipping companies' strict capacity control, and the market is expected to remain at a high level during Christmas and the New Year. The TAWB route has serious port congestion in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean [6]. Shipping Index and Contract Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 0.39% to 1398, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.62% to 1115. Different routes had different changes in SCFI, with SCFI - West America down 5.02% and SCFIS - West America up 1.18% [5]. - **Contract Data**: EC contracts showed different trends. For example, EC2506 increased by 0.53% to 1225.6, while EC2608 decreased by 0.07% to 1378.9. The positions of different contracts also changed, with EC2606's position decreasing by 61 to 2274 [5]. EC Market - **Market Review**: The market showed a volatile pattern. The spot prices of different shipping companies changed from early December to late December, and MSK plans to raise the price in January [7]. - **Logic**: The market is affected by index fluctuations, long - short games, and the transition of the main contract. It is sensitive to short - term factors, and the focus is shifting to subsequent main contracts [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].