Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The November USDA supply and demand report was less bullish than expected, and the market is expected to correct. The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the domestic market is expected to follow the trend of the US market in the short term. Future attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans and the trend of new - crop basis [10]. - In November, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. - The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [10]. - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On November 14, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 11. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 19, and the M1 - 5 basis increased by 25 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 602, with an increase of 23 [7]. International and Inventory Data - As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week and 53.3% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 54.7% [9]. - The USDA currently estimates the US - soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially having downward adjustment space and the export expectation having upward adjustment space [8]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream transactions of soybean meal in the near term are relatively cautious, and the提货 performance has declined [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在78.51%环比减少2.24%，同比减少0.46%；其中电石法在80.79%环比减少0.42%，同比增加2.98%，乙烯法在73.25%环比减少6.44%，同比减少9.02%。 | | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在6.369万吨，较上期增加2.046万吨。本周常规性检修增加，影 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.8%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，西北、东北、华南负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+27.9%至88.9%；华南+5.8%至89.1%。华北、华中有装置检修、减产， | | | | 开工下滑，华北-1.5%至76.5%，华中-3.0%至79.1%，其中山东-1.9%至87.2%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有 ...

Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 and GC001 closed at 1.37 and 1.26 respectively, with changes of 5.30bp and 28.00bp compared to the previous value; DR007 and GC007 closed at 1.47 and 1.49 respectively, with changes of -1.09bp and 2.00bp [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.58, 1.81 respectively, with changes of 0.00bp, 0.32bp, -0.16bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Thursday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Data - The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4628, 3038, 7235, and 7503 respectively, with changes of -1.57%, -1.15%, -1.63%, -1.16% compared to the previous day; the closing prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were 4614, 3034, 7208, and 7468 respectively, with changes of -1.7%, -1.3%, -1.7%, -1.3% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 4628.1, SSE 50 remained unchanged at 3038.4, CSI 500 fell 1.26% to 7235.5, and CSI 1000 fell 0.52% to 7502.8 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial and retail, pharmaceutical and biological, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, computer, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the losses [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1992.9 billion yuan, 1822 billion yuan, 1785 billion yuan, 1878.3 billion yuan, and 1796.5 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In October, economic data showed a weakening trend, with investment growth and real - estate prices accelerating their decline; from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with the growth rate falling 1.2 percentage points compared to September [7] - In terms of investment structure, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points; infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.83 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.3 percentage points [7] - In October, CPI year - on - year growth turned positive to 0.2%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by rising service prices, food prices, and gold prices [7] - The current macro - level is a mix of long and short factors. After the overall adjustment of the technology sector, the market lacks a core driving force. The market is divided on whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural market to a full - scale slow - bull market [7] - The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern of having a bottom support and facing upward pressure. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock - index's volatile adjustment, and new driving forces are awaited for the stock index to rise further [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount Data - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are presented in the table, with specific values such as 22.30%, 6.63%, 3.55%, 3.54% for IF [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - **Demand**: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - **Summary**: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching of the new crop in the Northern Hemisphere and the listing of domestic cane sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [4]. - On the import supply side, the current import volume of raw sugar is relatively large, the pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports is gradually being released, and the import cost is between 5300 - 5400, which suppresses the futures market [4]. - On the domestic supply side, Yunnan sugar mills started the first pressing two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start concentrated pressing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure [4]. - However, the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, and the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the listing of domestic new sugar [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Data - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 0, with a change of 0, and the basis to 2601 is - 5470, with a change of 42 [4]. - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5860, with a change of 0, the premium is 100, and the basis to 2601 is 290, with a change of 42 [4]. - SR01 is at 5470, down 42; SR05 is at 5404, down 29; SR01 - 05 is 66, down 13 [4]. - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.114, down 0.0176 [4]. International Data - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ice raw sugar main contract is at 14.85, up 0.42; the London white sugar main contract is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract is at 64.29, up 1.18 [4].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of pulp is bearish as Chile's Arauco company's import quotes show a decline in softwood pulp and an increase in hardwood pulp, and China's pulp production in October 2025 rose by 10.2% month - on - month [4] - The demand is neutral to bullish as the production of major wood - pulp papers is basically stable, the price of white cardboard has increased significantly with a de - stocking trend, and other paper types remain stable [4] - The inventory is bearish as of November 13, 2025, China's mainstream port pulp inventory reached 211.0 tons, up 5.1% month - on - month after a narrow de - stocking last period [4] - The investment view is to wait and see. The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit, and there is limited room for further increase. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy can be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company's October quotes show softwood pulp decline and hardwood pulp increase. China's pulp production in October 2025 was 208.4 tons, up 10.2% month - on - month, indicating a relatively loose supply [4] - **Demand**: Major wood - pulp paper production is stable, white cardboard price rises with de - stocking trend, and other paper types are stable [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port inventory is 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase, changing from de - stocking to high - level inventory accumulation [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The pulp 01 futures have a delivery profit with limited upside. Close the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy. For single - side trading, focus on old and new warehouse receipt situations; no specific arbitrage strategy is provided [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Trend**: Pulp prices fluctuated at a high level this week. Hardwood pulp spot prices rose significantly, and deliverable softwood pulp maintained a positive basis. The pulp futures price has exceeded the import cost of deliverable softwood pulp, limiting further increase and increasing the probability of warehouse receipt registration [8] - **Spot Price**: Softwood pulp silver star price is 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; softwood pulp cloth needle price is 4980 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp goldfish price is 4400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - **External Quotes**: In October, Chile's Arauco company's softwood pulp silver star quote was 680 dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp star quote was 540 dollars/ton [20] - **Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the total pulp futures contract position was 345935, up 1.37% from last week; the main contract position was 173670 hands, up 1.10% from last week [25] PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September, pulp and wood chip imports increased. In October, total pulp imports were 295.20 tons, up 11.27% year - on - year; softwood pulp imports were 69.10 tons, up 12.54% year - on - year; hardwood pulp imports were 135.60 tons, up 7.79% year - on - year [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, port pulp inventory was 211.0 tons, up 10.2 tons from the previous period, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased, with 46 days at the end of September [4][41] - **Downstream Demand**: In October 2025, paper product production increased month - on - month. Double - offset paper production was 76.46 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month; copperplate paper production was 39.42 tons, up 2.4% month - on - month; household paper production was 86.06 tons, up 0.9% month - on - month; white cardboard production was 107.62 tons, up 1% month - on - month [49] - **Double - Offset Paper**: As of November 13, 2025, total double - offset paper inventory was 189.93 tons, up 0.38% week - on - week. Production was 20.88 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week. Production cost was 4988 yuan/ton, up 1.7% week - on - week, and gross profit was - 345 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [63][67][71] - **Overseas Demand**: In October 2025, European softwood pulp inventory days were 26, unchanged month - on - month; hardwood pulp inventory days were 27, down 1 day month - on - month. As of August 2025, US paper product capacity utilization was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down 0.04 month - on - month [74] PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis and Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shandong Russian needle basis was - 500 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week; the Shandong silver star basis was 20 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton from last week. The 12 - 1 month spread was - 566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from last week [83] - **Import Profit**: As of November 14, 2025, softwood pulp import profit was 57 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton week - on - week; hardwood pulp import profit was 188 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton week - on - week [87]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report from Guomao Futures Research Institute's Energy and Chemical Research Center [3][4] Shipping Derivatives Data Freight Rate Index - The current values of the comprehensive Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West Coast of the United States, SCFIS - West Coast of the United States, SCFI - East Coast of the United States, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1329, 2600, 1417, 1504, and 2029 respectively [5] - The previous values are 1495, 1058, 2212, 1208, 2848, 1323, 1208, and 2029 respectively [5] - The percentage changes are -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, 10.02%, -8.71%, 7.11%, 24.50%, and 0.00% respectively [5] Futures Contracts - For futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., the current values, previous values, and percentage changes vary. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1380.7, a previous value of 1364.7, and a percentage change of 1.17% [5] - Regarding the contract positions, the current and previous positions and their changes are also provided. For instance, EC2606's current position is 1623, the previous position is 1567, and the change is 56 [5] - The current values of the monthly spreads (12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04) are 150.3, 612.0, and 461.7 respectively, with previous values of 112.8, 577.4, and 464.6 and changes of 37.5, 34.6, and -2.9 respectively [5] Market News - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026 [6] - Iran carried out a reported near - sea attack on Israel in the Gulf of Oman [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1, which was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope, is actually heading directly through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6] Market Analysis - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [7] - In late November, the spot prices of different shipping companies vary: MSK quotes 2250, HPL quotes 3150, CMA quotes 3200, YML quotes 250, and OVE quotes 2600, and shipping companies are starting to announce price increases [8] - It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 more price increases during the peak season, but the price increases announced by shipping companies in early December conflict with the current price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the price increases in December. The peak price and time in December are uncertain [8] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PX market has recently shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited. This is mainly driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production; and the drop in benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to suppress benzene output, thereby restricting PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester operation remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends. [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Price and Change - PTA spot price increased from 4565 to 4635, a rise of 70; MEG inner - market price rose from 3941 to 3980, an increase of 39; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6330 to 6390, a rise of 60; polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased, with the average price rising by 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. [2] Spread and Cash Flow - Short - fiber basis decreased from 143 to 127, a drop of 16; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 30 to 48 (should be an error in the original text, presumably a change of 18); polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 463 to 434, a drop of 29. [2] Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of the polyester short - fiber main futures rose 44 to 6238. The price of polyester short - fiber production plants was stable, and the price of traders was warm, but downstream demand was average, and on - site transactions were tepid. In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5730 - 5820 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere was light, with downstream terminals mainly in a cautious wait - and - see state. [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14%, a drop of 0.49%; polyester short - fiber production and sales increased from 56.00% to 58.00%, a rise of 2.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, a rise of 0.50%. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", expected to be mainly on the strong side, and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PX supply is tight and polyester exports may increase. The PX market price rebounds due to multiple factors, but production is limited by high gasoline profit margins and low benzene prices. Polyester downstream load remains at about 90%, and the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The PTA port inventory is accumulating, the PTA basis is weak, and the profit is at a low level. The PTA price is at a neutral - low position, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact. Overall, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market price rebounds. Although some planned maintenance has ended and production capacity is gradually recovering, PX output is still limited. Gasoline profit surge and low benzene price lead to reduced raw material input in aromatic hydrocarbon devices and lower load of reforming and STDP devices, restricting PX supply. PTA device maintenance increases slightly [4] - **Demand**: Polyester downstream load maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving performance is good recently [4] - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory accumulates 160,000 tons this week, and the market is continuously accumulating inventory [4] - **Basis**: PTA basis continues to be weak, and PTA profit remains at a low level [4] - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of about 200 [4] - **Valuation**: PTA price is at a neutral - low position. With the decline of reforming device profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4] - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events such as the attack in the Black Sea port have a neutral impact [4] - **Investment view**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly on the strong side; trading strategy: unilateral position, wait and see [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude oil**: On November 12, OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from deficit to surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply. The OPEC + alliance may pause further production increases in Q1 2026. Geopolitical events such as the so - called "drug - busting" action of the US against Venezuela also affect the market [8] - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory is continuously decreasing. Gasoline cracking profit strengthens, increasing blending demand. The North American refinery start - up rate drops to 86.6%, crude oil inventory decreases by 6.9 million barrels, and imports also decline significantly. The low US gasoline inventory supports the aromatic hydrocarbon market, and high - octane aromatic hydrocarbon prices are strong. European refineries face challenges, and Ebob gasoline prices rise [25] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: PX supply contracts, waiting for the annual contract negotiation results. Asian naphtha price strengthens but cracking profit is under pressure. South Korea reduces reforming device load due to declining aromatic hydrocarbon profit. Some Southeast Asian devices are under maintenance, promoting the expansion of Asian gasoline profit [44] - **Arbitrage space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons is opened, and physical goods circulation is in progress. The US - Asia spread of mixed xylene is about $257, theoretically supporting arbitrage imports [49] - **Profit situation**: Selective disproportionation profit declines, and reforming device maintenance increases. Pure benzene price rebounds slightly but still suppresses disproportionation profit. Gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits both recover [45][55] - **PX situation**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PX market price rebounds, but production is limited. China's PTA production is close to a historical high, supporting PX consumption [55] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: East China ethylene glycol port inventory increases significantly. With new device commissioning, supply pressure increases. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit recovers. Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand [78] - **Polyester**: Polyester maintains a high load, and weaving load is optimistic. Export demand may boost the market. Under the background of tight PX supply and stable polyester start - up, polyester exports are expected to increase due to favorable overseas export policies and improved Sino - US trade relations [65][88]