Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities maintained a volatile trend, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding from lows. The cooling of the US labor market and the resurgence of interest - rate cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, stimulating market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the continued slowdown of the domestic economy and the weakening of both domestic and external demand restricted the rebound space of industrial products [3]. - Multiple private - sector data in the US, such as ADP and Revelio Labs, show that US employment growth has slowed down, which may support the Fed's further easing policies. The end of the US government shutdown shifted market focus to economic data performance [3]. - In October, the domestic macro - economy continued the trend of weakening from the third - quarter. To ensure stable economic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and to start the "15th Five - Year Plan" smoothly, it is necessary to strengthen policies by the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption potential, and expanding effective investment [3]. - Due to the mixed macro - factors, commodities are likely to maintain a volatile trend. Geopolitical factors, such as the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict, potential conflicts in Venezuela, and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production policies, will continue to disrupt the commodity, especially the crude - oil market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Situation Analysis - **Employment Data**: ADP and Revelio Labs data indicate that US employment growth has slowed down. In November, ADP employment increased by 10,400, with a significant slowdown compared to previous months. Revelio Labs data also shows a similar trend, with 9,100 new jobs in October and 50,300 in November [3][7]. - **Government Shutdown and Policy**: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at plans to exempt tariffs on coffee, bananas and other foods and a possible $2,000 tax - refund plan for families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [3]. - **Inflation and Trade Data**: From the inflation and trade data trends, the US CPI and core CPI trends, as well as fiscal revenue from tariffs and trade balance data, reflect the complex situation of the US economy [9][13]. - **OPEC+ Outlook**: OPEC predicts a slight oversupply of global oil in 2026. OPEC+ production policies and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast also have an impact on the oil market. The current price of WTI crude oil is $62.57, a 4% decline from $58.49 [3][18]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.1% and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 6.2%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales of goods, and catering revenue were 2.9%, 2.7%, and 3.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 sent a clear signal of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The policy aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, accurately guide credit resource allocation, and balance economic growth, internal - external equilibrium, and risk prevention [3]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 8.2%. In October, the PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [25][27]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 14, the operating rates of PTA, POY, and polyester in the polyester industry chain were 74.5%, 89.0%, and 75.0% respectively. The national blast - furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan also showed different trends [29][30]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were 19% and 4% respectively. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 41.5 million, and in November, the sales volume was 1,967,100, a 7% increase [39]. - **Agricultural Product Price Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 key - monitored fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index, showed different price trends [40][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 原木基本面趋弱，考虑反弹后做空 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-17 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原木基本面趋弱，考虑反弹后做空 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 据木联调研，2025年10月，新西兰原木离港船只约54条月环比增加8条，总发货量约201.3万方，较9月176.6万方增加14%。 其中，41条船发往中国，发货量约150.2万方，占比75%，较9月147.2万方增加2%。 | | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，11月3日-11月9日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.63万方，较上周增加5.57%。 | | | 库存 | 偏空 | 据木联数据统计，截至11月7日，国内针叶原木总库存为293万 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the core logic of methanol revolves around supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure. On the supply side, although domestic production has slightly decreased, the significant increase in imports has significantly boosted the total supply, and the expected resumption of subsequent installations will further increase the supply pressure. In the inventory segment, the port shows an obvious trend of inventory accumulation, and although there are differences in the inland area, overall de - stocking is difficult. High - level inventory continuously suppresses market sentiment. On the demand side, only the profits of some downstream sectors have slightly recovered, the weak pattern of the terminal has not been fundamentally improved, and the model of mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis can hardly provide strong support for the market. The firm coal price at the cost side provides some support, but the overall industry profit has deteriorated, especially the losses of some processes have intensified, and the cost support is limited. In the short term, the market lacks clear positive drivers. It is recommended to wait and see, focus on subsequent import arrivals and changes in downstream restocking willingness, and avoid blindly gambling on price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: The current spot prices are 2047 in Inner Mongolia North Line, 1620 in Shaanxi Guanzhong, 1980 in Xinjiang (outside the region), 1945 in Shandong Linyi, 2160 in Taicang, and 2055 in Henan. Compared with the previous values, the prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Taicang, and Henan have decreased by 25, 0, 25, 20, and 5 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remains unchanged [1]. - **Taicang Transaction Price Range**: The transaction price ranges in Taicang from November to December are as follows: 2045 - 2055 in early November, 2035 - 2065 in mid - November, 2045 - 2075 in late November, 2075 - 2105 in late December [3]. Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The current prices of MA2601 and MA2605 are 2055 and 2163 respectively, with a decline of 2.28% and 2.08% compared with the previous values [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", with a short - term (within 1 month), medium - term (1 - 3 months), and long - term (over 3 months) amplitude of - 5% - 5% [4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (EC) showed a weak oscillation this week due to the Houthi's halt of attacks and poor freight rate implementation. The future trend depends on the implementation of the December price increase notices, and it is difficult to predict the decline of the main contract freight rate for now. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, while paying attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late November, MSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, etc.; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, etc. There is an obvious differentiation in the price hikes among shipping companies [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: The last trading Monday for the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract in 2026 is February 9. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthi officially announced the halt of maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [4] - **Demand**: There are still expected 1 - 2 price hikes during the peak season. The loading rate shows differentiation, with PA + MSC having a lower loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of European, US West, US East, and Mediterranean routes through line charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI indices [6][7][8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [13] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 are presented, along with future delivery volume forecasts from 2023 - 2029 [16][17][22] - **Ship Prices**: It includes the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [29][31][35] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, age structure, and idle/retrofit ratio [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) from Shanghai to European basic ports are presented from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including capacity, number of ships, and average age/duration, is shown [69][70][73] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, and proportion is presented from 2014 - 2025 [77][78][79]

Report Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation" [4] Core View - This week, asphalt fluctuated following crude oil. Supply, demand, inventory, and cost factors all influenced the asphalt market, with overall supply contracting, demand declining, inventory showing mixed trends, and cost affected by international oil price fluctuations. The asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate following crude oil [4] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Affected by season and equipment maintenance, the total domestic asphalt production plan in November was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease [4] - **Demand**: Affected by capital and cold air, demand declined overall. This week, the domestic shipment volume was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.7%. Terminal demand rebounded slightly, and subsequent shipments are expected to increase to about 380,000 tons [4] - **Inventory**: Factory inventories showed mixed trends but overall increased. Social inventories in most regions decreased, especially in Shandong [4] - **Cost**: International oil prices fluctuated downward this week, with Brent crude closing at $63.92 per barrel, affected by OPEC supply signals, regional events, and supply - demand expectations [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "oscillation". The unilateral trading strategy is also "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4] Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [9] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - It shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] Part Two: Supply - **Production Forecast**: The report shows monthly asphalt production and production forecasts in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 [18] - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 29% [30][34][36] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows weekly and monthly asphalt maintenance loss volumes in China from 2018 to 2025 [41] Part Two: Cost & Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and inventory rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [53][56] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [62] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][68][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand shows a bearish trend. However, short - term geopolitical factors drive up, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026; OPEC's October production shows a small increase, while Non - OPEC DoC's production decreases; IEA also shows a decline in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC production in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA lowers the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate; OPEC keeps the forecast unchanged; IEA slightly raises the forecast. Overall, it is neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increases to the highest level since June 6, 2025, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreases. Different types of refined oil inventories show different changes. It is bearish [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may intensify market supply - surplus concerns. It also agrees to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. It is bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy hubs lead to the suspension of oil exports from Novorossiysk Port, causing about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply interruption. The U.S. new sanctions on Russia bring uncertainty. It is bullish [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: The U.S. adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is high. It is neutral [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and the long - term price center will decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] PART TWO: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Sanctions against Russia are further upgraded, and international oil prices fluctuate widely. This week, oil prices first fell and then rose. Geopolitical events are the direct catalyst for the rebound. As of November 14, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures show different price changes [8] - **Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, and internal - external spreads strengthen [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [22] - **Cracking Spread**: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads decline, and jet fuel cracking spreads also decline [25][35] PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - Global crude oil production in October 2025 shows different trends according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA data, with an overall decline [57] - U.S. weekly crude oil production increases to 13.862 million barrels per day as of the week of November 7, and the number of active drilling rigs also increases slightly [80] - **Inventory** - U.S. commercial inventory increases by 6.413 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreases by 346,000 barrels [81] - Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, and Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [90] - **Demand** - In the U.S., gasoline implied demand increases, and refinery operating rate rises [100] - In China, independent refinery capacity utilization shows different trends, with some regions affected by equipment failures and some rising [117] - **Refinery Profit**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries rebounds, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads also rebound [118] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates [131] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreases [134]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 原料价格表现坚挺，橡胶延续偏强震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:原料价格表现坚挺，橡胶延续偏强震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料上涨，本周天气逐渐改善，原料恢复正常上量，当地加工厂提价抢收情绪升温，带动原料收购价格上涨。海南产区天气 情况改善，原料正常生产释放，当地加工厂为保证自身生产及交单需求，对原料维持加价收购态势，支撑原料价格坚挺运行。（2）泰国产区：泰国南部降 | | 供给 | 中性 | 雨增多，影响旺产季供应，胶水价格高位运行；东北部天气好转 下供应释放速度加快，部分海外EUDR订单支撑，杯胶收购价格表现坚挺。（3）越南产区： | | | | 越南产区降雨扰动持续，制约旺产季原料 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息预期降温，有色板块冲高回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 供应高位小幅减量，本周纯碱产量73.93吨，环比下降0.76万吨，跌幅1.01%。其中，轻质碱产量32.84万吨，环比下降0.37万吨。重质碱产量 | | | | 41.09万吨，环比下降0.39万吨。部分企业负荷波动，供应窄幅下移。企业装置开停并存，供应窄幅波动，下周产量或小幅增加。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 短期直接需求企稳，光伏日熔量持稳。下游需求支撑。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，厂家总库存170.73万吨，较上周四下降0.69万吨，跌幅0.40%。其中，轻质纯碱80.02万吨，环比减少1.44万吨；重质纯碱90.71万 | | | | 吨，环比增加0.75万吨。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength and remain in a favorable window period. Market expectations for further monetary policy easing in Q4, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, have boosted market sentiment. [8] - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline in the effectiveness of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, combined with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is crucial for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue. [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints - **Market Performance**: Last week, treasury bond futures contracts of different maturities showed mixed gains and losses with limited fluctuations. [4] - **Policy Impact**: The Q3 monetary policy implementation report indicates a possible marginal loosening of the monetary policy tone, reducing the probability of liquidity disturbances. The central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases on November 17, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan after offsetting maturities. [4] - **Macro Data**: Some financial data indicators showed a slowdown in growth, slightly lower than seasonal performance. The financing demand of the household sector remained weak, and corporate bill - padding was significant. The peak of local government bond issuance has passed, and its support for social financing has weakened marginally. [4] Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities (MLF), as well as their historical trends. [10][11][13] - **Funding Costs**: It shows various funding cost indicators such as deposit - based pledged repo rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repo rates, along with their historical trends. [20] - **Yield Spreads**: The report includes information on treasury bond yield spreads, US treasury bond yield spreads, and their historical trends. [35][37][39] Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - **Basis and Net Basis**: It provides data on the basis and net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [45][53][54] - **IRR and Implied Interest Rate**: The report shows the implied repo rate (IRR) and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [60][66][67]