投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 新粮卖压预期，玉米震荡筑底 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-09-22 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:新粮卖压预期，玉米震荡筑底 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 行情回顾：基差高位 玉米主力合约基差走势 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 11/21 12/22 01/22 02/22 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 09/27 10/28 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）旧作供应趋紧，目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the non - super - dovish stance led to a short - term correction in the non - ferrous sector due to profit - taking. The call between Chinese and US leaders improved market sentiment, which is expected to boost commodity prices. The non - ferrous metal market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, raw materials, smelting, demand, and inventory, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [9][91][192]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6][7]. 2. Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. Positive factors include the planned meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's interest rate cut, while negative factors are the under - expected Chinese economic data in August [9]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore rebounded slightly, and the port inventory increased, but the tight supply pattern continued [51]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral to bullish. The decline in sulfuric acid prices led to an increase in the losses of smelters using spot copper ore and a narrowing of the profits of those using long - term contract copper ore. The production of electrolytic copper in September may decline significantly [51]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The operating rate of refined copper rods increased slightly, and the operating rate of copper products rebounded slightly with the arrival of the peak season [10]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. Global copper inventories increased [77]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating to bullish. Although the Fed's interest rate cut caused some bulls to leave the market, the overseas easing cycle and the improvement in domestic downstream demand are expected to drive copper prices to stabilize and rise [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term strong operation; Arbitrage: Long domestic and short overseas [9]. 3. Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the decline in the US initial jobless claims are positive for the non - ferrous sector, while the Bank of Japan's ETF reduction has a certain impact [91]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remained stable, and the import processing fee index increased significantly. The supply of domestic ores is stable, and the import processing fee is expected to continue to rise [91]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production in August was better than expected, but the production in September is expected to decline due to new smelter maintenance plans [91]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The peak season is approaching, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the orders are not significantly improved [91]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory continued to increase, and the differentiation between domestic and overseas inventories deepened, increasing the global visible inventory [91]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating. The short - term focus is on the fundamentals, and the increase in inventory and the lackluster peak season put pressure on zinc prices. Attention should be paid to the opening of the "export window" [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy low and sell high within the range; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic [91]. 4. Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Neutral to bullish. The Fed's interest rate cut and the call between Chinese and US leaders are positive for market sentiment, but the Fed's stance is not super - dovish [192]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral to bullish. Concerns about the supply in Indonesia have decreased, but there is still uncertainty in the RKAB approval in 2026. The nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia increased slightly, and the domestic port inventory increased significantly [192]. - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel remained high, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the production of some nickel iron plants in Indonesia resumed. The demand for nickel sulfate increased, and the stainless steel price oscillated [192]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, but the peak - season demand recovery was limited. The new energy production and sales remained high, driving the procurement demand of precursor enterprises [192]. - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. Global nickel inventories increased rapidly [192]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Oscillating to bullish. Although there are uncertainties in the Indonesian supply, the improvement in market sentiment and the relatively strong raw material prices may drive nickel and stainless steel prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [192]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy low within the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see [192].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Neutral [3] - Soda ash investment view: Bearish [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality persists, and the pattern of oversupply continues. Glass demand has some resilience and may improve in the peak season, with stable supply, large inventory accumulation, and price under pressure. Soda ash has high supply, neutral demand, weakened cost support, large near - month inventory, and limited upside in price. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [37]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week [3]. - Demand: Bullish. The peak season is coming, and demand may improve marginally. This week's production and sales have strengthened [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. Enterprise inventory is 60.908 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 675000 heavy boxes (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. The current price and valuation are neutral [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic has a tidal - like trading pattern, but the weak reality remains, and the overall sentiment is not good [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend [4]. - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists [4]. - Inventory: Neutral. The total manufacturer inventory is 1755600 tons, a decrease of 41900 tons (2.33%) compared with last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 749500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13500 tons, and that of heavy soda ash is 1006100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 356800 tons (25.51%). Recently, the overall inventory has been decreasing, and the inventory of individual enterprises has decreased due to accelerated shipments [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. The valuation is neutral [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, but the overall impact is limited, and the pattern of high short - term supply is difficult to reverse [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes Glass - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1216 (+36), and the Shahe spot price was 1084 (+12) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1318 (+28), and the Shahe spot price was 1216 (+19) [11]. Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated. - Glass: The 01 - 05 spread and the basis fluctuated [22]. Part Three: Supply - and - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 16020 tons, with industry start - up rate at 76.01% and capacity utilization at 80.08%, all remaining unchanged from the 11th. There is no cold - repair or ignition of production lines this week, and supply will likely remain stable next week. The production profit of glass fluctuates. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel is - 164.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.29 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel is 94.03 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.37 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel is 41.37 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.43 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - The orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises have improved. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.5 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The completion data of the real - estate mid - and - back end is poor. From January to August, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises is 6431.09 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area is 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area is 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. The inventory is decreasing [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash output is 745700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15400 tons (2.02%). Light soda ash output is 328000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11400 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 417700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4000 tons. Due to individual enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and equipment problems, supply has decreased. Recently, there are few device overhauls, and the overall supply shows an increasing trend. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - soda process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash Demand - The overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. However, the terminal demand is not good, and the negative feedback pressure on price still exists. The inventory is decreasing [34].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth momentum in China slowed down in August, with multiple indicators such as prices, investment, and consumption weakening, increasing the necessity for policy support. Policy is guiding the further growth of "service consumption". There are expectations for policies from the upcoming "922" press conference. The overseas situation is positive, with positive signals from the China-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year. However, the domestic economic data is poor, and there is a need for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending. The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logic** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August, China's economic growth slowed, with industrial production, investment, and consumption weakening. The year-on-year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth of national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August was 0.5%. Policy support for the economy is necessary [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The policy is guiding the growth of service consumption, with over 30 policies already introduced and more to come. The "922" press conference has raised policy expectations, similar to the "924" policy "combination punch" last year [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The China-US Madrid economic and trade talks had a positive tone. The Fed cut interest rates by 20bp in September 2025, and the dot - plot shows possible further rate cuts [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of September 18, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy** - **View**: Control positions before the holiday, adjust and go long, and expect a "slow bull" pattern in the A - share market [3]. - **Strategy**: Control positions unilaterally before the holiday, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7; the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3; the CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (3.1%), electronics (3%), automobiles (3%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), and social services (1.7%) led the gains, while banking (-4.2%), non - ferrous metals (-4%), non - bank finance (-3.7%), steel (-3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.7%) led the losses [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 17.61%, 18.63%, 12.92%, and 11.24% respectively, while the open interests decreased by 7.73%, 4.25%, 8.04%, and 2.08% respectively [11]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at 1592.2, at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at 267.8, at the 43.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 32.7% historical quantile level; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 26.6% historical quantile level [16]. Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 11923 billion yuan. Next week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on September 25 [22]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of September 18, the A - share margin trading balance was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of September 19, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.29, at the 51.8% quantile level in the past decade [29]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, various economic indicators showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%. The CPI was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9% [32]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction also had their own performance trends. For example, in the real estate industry, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued; in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4% [32][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different growth rates and ROE levels. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025 was 2.49%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.71% [44][45]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Policy Movements**: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, optimize real estate policies, and provide fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans. For example, on September 17, the Ministry of Commerce announced policies to promote service consumption; on September 5, Shenzhen optimized real estate policies [49][50]. Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 52%, the consumer confidence index was 55.4, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22000. The year - on - year growth of PCE was 0%, and the year - on - year growth of CPI was 2.9% [59][62]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed and implemented a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [66][68].

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report provided by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4][5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows an overall trend of weak oscillation, with the 10 - contract experiencing a significant decline [8] - In the European - route shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will compete for cargoes, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will drop to the lowest point in May this year by late October, and shipping companies will start to support prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently 1198, down 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1120, down 0.45% [6] - For different routes, SCFI - US West is down 30.97%, SCFIS - US West is up 37.65%, SCFI - US East is down 22.68%, SCFI - Northwest Europe is down 8.84%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is down 5.75% [6] Contracts - For different EC contracts, the prices of all contracts show a downward trend, with the 10 - contract (EC2510) having a relatively large decline of 5.01% [6] Positions - The positions of different contracts are increasing, such as the EC2606 position increasing by 52, the EC2608 position increasing by 28, the EC2410 position increasing by 542, the EC2412 position increasing by 1510, and the EC2604 position increasing by 307 [6] Monthly Spreads - The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 579.5, down 40.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 67.5, down 11.7; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 380.0, down 10.1 [6] Spot Prices - This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, QA dropped to 1550, PA dropped to 1400, and NSC dropped to 1600. The FM freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [9] Strategies - A positive spread strategy is recommended for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for styrene is "oscillation", with an expected bearish trend mainly due to weakening costs. The trading strategy is to "wait and see" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The aromatics market continues to be weak, with pure benzene and styrene prices declining. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies have different impacts on the market. Overall, the styrene market is expected to be mainly bearish, but influenced by the Fed's interest rate cut, there are also some supporting factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $274 per ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $159. Asian producers' economics remain negative [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but market expectations are poor. As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports is 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% and a year - on - year increase of 168%. After the end of maintenance, supply has increased significantly, and Yulong Petrochemical's plant is about to be put into operation. Overseas demand is still declining due to the low operating rate of derivatives [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of September 15, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 9.92% from the previous period. The commercial inventory is 78,000 tons, a decrease of 10.34% from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis is stable, but there are expectations of inventory accumulation for pure benzene and styrene in the future. The upcoming operation of Yulong Petrochemical's plant will bring obvious market pressure [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $274 per ton, and the spread between styrene and benzene has also dropped to $159 [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply, overseas pure benzene continues to flow in, and the supply of styrene plants is disrupted [3]. - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude oil**: Trump's remarks have led to a weak operation of crude oil [5]. - **Styrene**: The profit of styrene integrated plants has declined, and port inventories have slightly decreased [15][27]. - **Pure benzene**: The price of pure benzene is running weakly, and overseas demand is dragging it down [38]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene downstream - ABS**: Demand is fair, with the mainstream price, production, and inventory showing certain trends [52]. - **Styrene downstream - PS**: Inventory has increased, and profit has declined [64]. - **Styrene downstream - EPS**: The load has increased, and inventory has accumulated [71]. - **Pure benzene - Aniline**: Profit has slightly recovered [81]. - **Phenol**: Inventory has increased, and the gross profit is average [90]. - **Adipic acid**: Production profit is low [100]. - **Caprolactam**: Production is stable, but the price has declined [112]. - **Household appliances**: Export demand has decreased year - on - year [122].

Group 1: Main Points and Strategy Overview - The latest futures price of caustic soda is 2580 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78%; the price of Shandong 32% caustic soda is 2406.25 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.38%; the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda is 1250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.41% [5]. - China's caustic soda production is 820,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%; North China's production is 270,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11%; Northwest China's production is 220,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.44% [5]. - China's caustic soda operating rate is 81.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%; Shandong's operating rate is 0.89, with a week-on-week increase of 2.01% [5]. - The inventory of liquid caustic soda is 378,300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.03%; the inventory of flake caustic soda is 22,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.27%; Shandong's inventory is 29,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 17.6% [5]. - The alumina operating rate is 86.23%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%; Shandong's alumina operating rate is 88.39%, with no change from the previous week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.52%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.99%; the chemical pulp operating rate is 86.4%, with a week-on-week increase of 6.27%; the printing and dyeing operating rate is 65.76%, with no change from the previous week [5]. - Shandong's chlor-alkali profit is 240.09 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 35.17%; Northwest China's chlor-alkali profit is 525.05 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the historical trends of caustic soda futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other indicators through multiple charts [8][11][13][16][19][20][24][27][28][29][30]. Group 3: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - The report shows the historical trends of caustic soda capacity utilization, device loss, inventory, and other indicators through multiple charts [33][36][38][40][56][58][60][62][64][66][67][68][69][70][73]. - Supply-side positives: Formosa Plastics will conduct large-scale maintenance from the 16th to the 23rd, which will have a short-term driving effect on the surrounding area; Minxiang and Dadi have fully loaded their 50% caustic soda production; Guangxi alumina plants will start to stockpile caustic soda in October [75][76]. - Supply-side negatives: The FOB export transaction price of caustic soda in East China is between 390 - 410, and the transaction price of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia is between 410 - 420; Haili has fully loaded its production capacity; Binzhou's maintenance has been postponed; Weiqiao has vehicle queuing; Tianjin Bohua's device will be fully loaded in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to Wenfeng's procurement [75][77].

Report Summary of Agricultural Products (Soybean and Meal) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The domestic soybean purchase margin has worsened. Due to the comprehensive import cost support from the US market and premiums, the downside space of the futures market is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate within a range. The focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On September 19th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 26 with a decrease of 1, in Tianjin it was 26 with an increase of 19, in Rizhao it was - 54 with a decrease of 21. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 64 with a decrease of 21, in Dongguan it was - 64 with a decrease of 11, in Zhanjiang it was - 24, and in Fangcheng it was - 64 with a decrease of 21. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 136 with a decrease of 19 [6] - **Spread**: The M1 - M5 spread was 228, the M1 - RM1 spread, the RM1 - 5 spread, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 360 with an increase of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 492 with a decrease of 31 [6][7] 3.2 Supply Situation - **International**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 63%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the production areas, and the good - to - excellent rate may continue to decline. There may be room for a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit area in the future [7] - **Domestic**: In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to start to decline, but the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. Currently, the progress of soybean purchases for November is slow, and the supply of soybeans in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, but the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8] 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming will support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. This week, the spot trading volume of the downstream soybean meal has increased [8] 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean**: Domestic soybean stocks have increased to a high level [8] - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than the same period last year and is expected to be in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.5 Market Outlook - The futures market of soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the focus in the later stage should be on Sino - US policy changes [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillation", with a short - term supply - demand contradiction not being prominent. In September, both supply and demand increased, and the long - term trend continues to follow crude oil fluctuations [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that in the asphalt market, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent during the traditional peak season, with both supply and demand increasing. Supply is affected by factors such as refinery production plans and raw material prices, demand shows regional differences, inventory is in a state of destocking, and cost is influenced by the complex situation in the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: For October's local refinery production schedule, two information companies' tracking data shows 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although factors like weak crude oil prices and sufficient raw materials in September - October boost production enthusiasm, some refinery maintenance and intermittent production limit the growth rate [4]. - **Demand**: In North China and Shandong, some projects are rushing to work, and demand is gradually being released. In East and South China, demand is average, but sales have increased due to preferential policies. This week's shipment volume reached 455,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.6%, with significant growth in North and East China [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, both factory and social inventories of asphalt in China are in a state of destocking, especially in Shandong, mainly due to contract fulfillment and actual terminal demand [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend of "rising first and then falling". Multiple factors led to a decline in the price center. By Friday, WTI crude oil closed at $62.68 per barrel, and Brent at $66.68 per barrel, with the weekly average price down by $1.2 and $0.8 respectively compared to last week [4]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The investment view is "oscillation". The trading strategy for single - side trading is "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][10]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [15][17][19]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08 [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][69].