入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 1. 17日纯碱玻璃震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期供给整体持稳,而生产利润再度挤压,市场继续倒逼供 给减量的压力增强。反内卷大逻辑下,供给扰动情绪易发酵。淡季来临, 整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃估值并不高。同时 煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 年碱生仔 00000 250 8000 200 6000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 I ...

入 期 情 借 服 源 在 热线 官 方 客 网 站 ile 限 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts Po 212 . 2018 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 尿素数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈三州 | | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 沫煤 | 465.00 | 465.00 | 0.00 | | | 成本 | 无烟小块 | 920.00 | 920. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 天然气 | 4040. 00 | 4080. 00 | -40. 00 | | | | 河南 | 1600. 00 | 1610.00 | -10.00 | | | | 河北 | 1600.00 | 1620.00 | -20.00 | 本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with new energy materials leading the gains and precious metals leading the losses. Industrial products showed mixed performance, while most agricultural products declined [1]. - The steel market is currently in a stage dominated by weak reality and supported by costs. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. - The decline in basic metals is due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite [1]. - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. In the short term, some factors support the oil price [1]. - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. Domestic soybean meal may continue to trade in a range, and the three major oils may continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Performance of Different Commodity Categories - **New Energy Materials**: Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit with a 9.00% increase [1]. - **Shipping Futures**: All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.73% [1]. - **Black Series**: All black - series commodities rose, with iron ore up 1.81%. The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage [1]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemicals rose, with urea up 0.79% [1]. - **Energy Products**: Most energy products rose, with LPG up 0.78% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals led the losses, with Shanghai silver down 4.08% [1]. - **Basic Metals**: All basic metals declined, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.39% [1]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Most oilseeds and oils declined, with soybeans down 1.23% [1]. - **Non - metallic Building Materials**: All non - metallic building materials declined, with glass down 1.15% [1]. - **Agricultural By - products**: Most agricultural by - products declined, with live pigs down 0.81% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Commodity Categories 3.2.1 Black Series - The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Steel futures prices rose on Monday due to the rebound of raw material prices and the start of environmental inspections in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. However, in the short term, the expectation of large - scale economic stimulus has cooled, and there is still downward pressure on the steel market due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. 3.2.2 Basic Metals - The decline in basic metals is mainly due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite and a general softening of the non - ferrous metal market [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with positive factors including the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, and negative factors including OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and weak global economic demand. In the short term, factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the oil price [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds and Oils - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. The domestic soybean meal market is under the pressure of weak fundamentals and the support of US soybean costs, and may continue to trade in a range. The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil rebounding. Although the Indonesian biodiesel policy boosted palm oil prices, the decline in export demand limited its increase [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - The prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable on November 14 - 17, 2025. Only the prices of Sichuan - Chongqing LPG, methanol in Taicang and Shandong, methane chloride, and MTBE decreased, while the price of international natural gas increased. Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest main production area was low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, driving up the auction transaction price. The positive sentiment in the futures market led to smooth transactions of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot price. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production, domestic and international operating rates, and arrival volume remained unchanged. The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. The slight adjustment of raw material methanol strengthened the cost support. Formaldehyde production enterprises faced greater pressure to sell goods as the downstream entered the off - season, and they adjusted their sales mechanisms according to their inventory [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged. The operating rates of downstream industries such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, and MTBE remained unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - The prices of most associated products remained stable, while the prices of methane chloride and MTBE decreased [1]. Operation Strategy - The basis strengthened, and the trading volume was average. In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1].

| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一层到广杨璐琳 | | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | 2025/11/18 | | | 地区 | 2025/11/17 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | | 与2601基差 | | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.53 | -0. 32 | | Or B | -270 | | -320 | | | 湖南 | 11. 33 | 0 | 100 | | -570 > | | 0 | | | 湖北 | 11.23 | -0.12012 | 0 | | -570 | | +1-120 | | | 安徽 | 11.65 | -0.26 | 200 | | -350 | | -260 | | | 江西 | 11.26 | -0. 08 | 100 | | -640 | | -80 | | | 山西 | 11.13 | -0. 32 | -100 | | -570 | | -32 ...

500 FEE CATENZ 国 流的衍生品综合服务 方 生 网 月屋 Fire 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn IC 国兴期货 | IC E 照 斯 S | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白金属数据 - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方冒钱 | 2025/11/18 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 15:00期货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10851 | -0. 83 | 10820. 5 | -1. 43 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to factors such as high gasoline profit rates and low pure benzene prices, which limit PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry shows good performance, and export demand may improve [3]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly by 120,000 tons. Ethylene prices cannot support the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. New device commissions put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The cost support from rising coal prices is weak, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - INE crude oil price increased from 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, to 457.4 yuan/barrel on November 14, 2025, with a change of 7.9 yuan [3]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1433.4 yuan/ton to 1376.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 57.41 yuan; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4388 to 1.4140, a change of - 0.0249 [3]. - CFR China PX increased from 826 to 832, a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 242 to 263, a change of 21 [3]. - PTA spot price increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, a change of 70 yuan; spot processing fee increased from 145.9 yuan/ton to 186.3 yuan/ton, a change of 40.4 yuan; the disk processing fee decreased from 280.9 yuan/ton to 251.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.6 yuan [3]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3892 yuan/ton to 3922 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan; MEG - naphtha increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 144 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan; MEG内盘 increased from 3941 yuan/ton to 3980 yuan/ton, a change of 39 yuan [3]. - PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 88.03%, 76.84%, and 64.20% respectively; polyester负荷 decreased from 89.07% to 88.69%, a change of - 0.38% [3]. - Among polyester products, POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged, FDY150D/96F increased by 30 yuan, 1.4D直纺涤短 increased by 60 yuan, and semi - light切片 increased by 35 yuan [3]. - The cash flows of POY, DTY, and涤短 decreased by 73, 73, and 13 respectively, and FDY现金流 decreased by 43 [3]. - The production and sales rates of long - staple fiber increased by 2%, and those of short - staple fiber increased by 9%, while the production and sales rate of polyester切片 decreased by 17% [3]. Device Maintenance Information - The restart time of a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has been postponed, and the specific restart plan is unknown [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Author: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Review Index Performance - **Shanghai Composite Index**: On November 14, it rose and then fell, closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 points, hitting a 10 - year high intraday, down 0.18% for the week [5] - **Shenzhen Component Index**: Down 1.93% on November 14, down 1.4% for the week [5] - **ChiNext Index**: Down 2.82% on November 14, down 3.01% for the week [5] - **North - Star 50 Index**: Down 1.01% on November 14 [5] - **STAR 50 Index**: Down 2.72% on November 14 [5] - **Wind All - A Index**: Down 1.27% on November 14 [5] - **Wind A500 Index**: Down 1.6% on November 14 [5] - **CSI A500 Index**: Down 1.61% on November 14 [5] - **Total A - share trading volume**: 1.98 trillion yuan on November 14, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan the previous day [5] Index Details | Index | Volume (billion) | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 48.80 | 3038.4255 | - 1.15 | 1203.76 | | CSI 300 | 192.09 | 4628.1398 | - 1.57 | 4447.20 | | CSI 1000 | 271.97 | 4062.93 | - 1.16 | 7502.7567 | [3] CFFEX Index Option Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (million) | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.34 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 7.19 | 3.10 | 0.76 | 1.34 | | CSI 300 | 6.85 | 0.64 | 11.50 | 9.85 | 0.86 | 11.20 | 4.36 | | CSI 1000 | 25.93 | 13.47 | 0.92 | 32.91 | 17.25 | 12.46 | 1.566 | [3] Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curve are presented, with data on historical volatility cone including 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current value, as well as next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] - **CSI 300**: Similar to SSE 50, historical volatility, volatility cone, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility are provided [3][4] - **CSI 1000**: Historical volatility, volatility cone, and next - month at - the - money implied volatility data are shown [3][4]