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股票股指期权:盘中隐波与标的呈现正相关上行,隐波溢价扩大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:51
Report Summary 1. Market Conditions - On July 29, 2025, in the stock index option market, the intraday implied volatility showed a positive correlation with the underlying assets and increased, and the implied volatility premium expanded [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, the CSI 1000 Index, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index were 4152.02, 6773.88, and 2808.59 respectively, with increases of 16.20, 43.91, and 5.82. Their trading volumes were 230.81 billion, 259.26 billion, and 47.05 billion shares, with changes of 8.05 billion, 6.52 billion, and - 2.69 billion shares [1]. - **ETFs**: The closing prices of the Huatai - Bairui 300 ETF, the Southern 500 ETF, and the ChinaAMC Science - Innovation 50 ETF were 4.235, 6.431, and 1.125 respectively, with increases of 0.021, 0.040, and 0.015. Their trading volumes were 8.06 billion, 2.13 billion, and 37.52 billion shares, with changes of 2.03 billion, 0.11 billion, and - 0.73 billion shares [1]. 2.2 Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the CSI 1000 Index Option, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option were 71146, 181506, and 26240 respectively, with changes of - 5069, 476, and - 5095. Their open interests were 191714, 253286, and 70462 respectively, with changes of 3662, 7762, and 1265 [1]. - **PCR Indicators**: The VL - PCR of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the CSI 1000 Index Option, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option were 58.24%, 81.44%, and 44.26% respectively, and the OI - PCR were 72.66%, 96.82%, and 55.62% respectively [1]. 2.3 Option Volatility Statistics - **ATM - IV and HV**: For the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, the near - month ATM - IV was 15.72% with a change of - 0.07%, and the same - term HV was 6.49% with a change of - 0.04%. For the CSI 1000 Index Option, the near - month ATM - IV was 19.03% with a change of - 0.36%, and the same - term HV was 8.53% with a change of 0.04% [4]. - **Skew and VIX**: The skew of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option was 9.81% with a change of - 2.44%, and the VIX was 19.76 with a change of 0.059. The skew of the CSI 1000 Index Option was 1.81% with a change of - 1.18%, and the VIX was 23.21 with a change of - 0.002 [4]. 3. Option - Specific Charts - For each type of option (such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Option, etc.), there are charts showing the full - contract PCR, the main - contract volatility, the main - contract skew, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [8][12][15].
全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第125期)-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]
有色及贵金属日度数据简报-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:39
标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅读提任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的推介,亦不应放视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会跟换人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/7/29 | 莫骁雄 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0019413 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixian ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show various trends, including wide - range oscillations, declines, and rebounds [6][11][12]. - For specific commodities, glass may experience a resistive decline, and the adjustment may not end; carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual reduction and suspension of production in mines; gold is oscillating and falling, while silver is breaking through and rising, etc. [6][8][9][12] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 International and Domestic News - Sino - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm, Sweden. China hopes to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and cooperation [6]. - China introduced a child - rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old [18]. - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia, causing crude oil prices to rise nearly 3% during intraday trading [19]. - The US Treasury's borrowing forecast for the third quarter exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak [21]. - Chile expects to obtain a tariff exemption from Trump, causing copper prices in New York to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [21]. - Tesla placed a $16.5 billion chip order with Samsung [21]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is oscillating and falling, and silver is breaking through and rising. The trend intensity of gold is - 1, and that of silver is 0 [12][15][20]. - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on copper prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is oscillating and weakening, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][25][27]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is oscillating due to the lack of a clear driving force, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][28][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is oscillating within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is oscillating at a high level, alumina's sentiment is declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The direction of nickel is determined by macro - expectations, and its fundamentals limit its elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and its real - world situation needs to be repaired. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][38][42]. - **Carbonated Lithium**: Carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the reduction and suspension of production in Jiangxi mines. The trend intensity is 0 [9][12][43]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to today's sentiment changes, and polysilicon should focus on today's market information. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [12][47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [12][51]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by the sector's market resonance and are oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][54][57]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in a weak oscillation due to the game between funds and reality. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [12][58][60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [12][61][64]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption of steam coal is recovering, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [12][66][69]. 3.2.3 Others - **Glass**: Short - term short - chasing for glass needs to be cautious, and the decline adjustment has not ended. It may experience a resistive decline in the later stage [6][8]. - **Log**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [70].
对二甲苯:单边趋势偏弱,PTA:偏弱,基差反套,月差正套,MEG:趋势转弱,月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakening, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - PTA: Weak, with basis reverse arbitrage and monthly spread positive arbitrage opportunities, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - MEG: Trend turns weak, with monthly spread reverse arbitrage, rated as "Weak" [1][8] Core Viewpoints - PX's price decline is a correction after the sharp rise on July 25, and future Asian supply will gradually increase; PTA's spot supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to basis and monthly spread arbitrage; MEG is short - term bearish due to supply pressure and other factors [3][9][10] Market Overview PX - End - of - day naphtha price declined, and today's PX price dropped significantly. Two September Asian spot deals were at 855 and 854, and one October deal was at 848. The decline is seen as a correction after the July 25 surge, driven by China's discussion on curbing industrial over - capacity. Crude oil's afternoon weakness added downward pressure, but its potential rebound may support PX [3][5] PTA - PTA spot price fell to 4800 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 7 [5] MEG - East China main port MEG inventory is about 52.1 tons, down 1.2 tons from the previous period. Different ports have different inventory changes [6] Polyester - A 300,000 - ton polyester new device in Anhui will be put into production tomorrow. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales are light, with an average sales rate of less than 30% as of 3:30 pm. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales are average, with an average sales rate of 48% as of 3:00 pm [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG trend intensities are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8] Views and Suggestions PX - Unilateral trend turns weak, hedge on rallies. Go long PX and short PTA01 contract, short PXN on rallies. China's PX开工率 is 79.9% (1.2%), and Asia's is 72.9% (- 0.7%). Future Asian supply will gradually increase [9] PTA - Unilateral turns weak, industries can hedge on rallies. Pay attention to going long PX and short PTA on 01 contract. Basis is in reverse arbitrage, and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. PTA装置开工率 remains at 79.7%. Pay attention to high - valuation PTA processing fee compression positions [9][10] MEG - Short - term bearish. Pay attention to supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L arbitrage. Import volume will change in different months, and domestic supply is relatively loose [10][11]
铝:高位震荡,氧化铝:情绪回落,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: High-level shock [1] - Alumina: Sentiment decline [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, spreads, inventory, and enterprise profitability [1] - The U.S. Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, an 82% increase, and accelerate bond issuance after the debt ceiling is raised [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,615, down 145 from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,631, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The closing price of the main Shanghai alumina contract at night is 3,260 [1] - The closing price of the main aluminum alloy contract at night is 20,055 [1] Spot Market - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 514,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - The domestic average alumina price is 3,261 [1] - The FOB price of Australian alumina is $380 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Enterprise Profitability - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,919.40, down 120.00 from the previous trading day [1] - The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -415, down 64 from the previous trading day [1] - The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils is 1,937.40, down 123.37 from the previous trading day [1]
股指期货将震荡整理,碳酸锂、焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏弱黄金期货将偏弱震荡,原油期货将震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:13
Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 29, 2025, futures main contract market trends. Index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly; gold futures will likely fluctuate weakly; some industrial product futures such as copper, aluminum, and silver will fluctuate and consolidate; some futures like alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil will likely fluctuate strongly; while futures of coke, glass, and soda ash will probably fluctuate weakly; crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly [2][3][4][5]. - The report also provides macro - news, commodity futures information, and analyzes the July 28, 2025, market trends of various futures contracts, including index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7][11][13]. Summary by Category Macro - news - National leaders made important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work [7]. - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, aiming to implement the consensus reached in previous meetings [7]. - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [8]. - Changhe Group in Hong Kong is considering inviting a Chinese strategic investor to participate in the Panama Canal port business transaction, and the Chinese government will regulate it in accordance with the law [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the integration of urban and rural development and protecting the rights of rural migrants [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting consumer goods and emerging industries [9]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation aimed to improve market supervision systems and enhance safety supervision capabilities [9]. - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards from 2025 - 2030 [9]. - The State Taxation Administration reported on the investigation of tax evasion cases by online anchors and cases of fraudulent tax incentives [9]. - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [10]. - US President Trump mentioned potential tariffs on imports and his stance on Russia - Ukraine relations [10]. - The US Treasury increased the federal borrowing forecast for the quarter [10]. - Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement is determined, details remain to be discussed [10]. - The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs [10]. - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft with a record 126.7 billion euro investment [11]. Commodity Futures Information - Domestic industrial product futures saw a significant correction, with six main contracts including coke, glass, and soda ash hitting the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties such as alumina and polysilicon falling more than 3%. At night, the black - metal sector generally declined [11]. - The US - EU agreement and OPEC + production increase boosted oil prices, with US crude and Brent crude rising 2.79% and 2.87% respectively [11]. - International precious - metal futures generally closed lower on July 28, affected by the Thailand - Cambodia cease - fire agreement [12]. - Most London base metals closed lower on July 28, influenced by the Fed's policy and Sino - US trade uncertainties [12]. - Oil traders expect OPEC + to approve a significant production increase this weekend [12]. - Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on July 28, and the US dollar index rose [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some rising slightly and some falling slightly. It is expected that on July 29, index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, and in July 2025, they will likely fluctuate strongly [13][14][15][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. It is expected that on July 29, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly [38][40]. Gold Futures - On July 28, the main contract of gold futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [43]. Silver Futures - On July 28, the main contract of silver futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [49][50]. Copper Futures - On July 28, the main contract of copper futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [53]. Aluminum Futures - On July 28, the main contract of aluminum futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [58]. Alumina Futures - On July 28, the main contract of alumina futures fell significantly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of alumina futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [62]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of industrial silicon futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly and widely [67][68]. Polysilicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of polysilicon futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate widely [68]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [70]. Rebar Futures - On July 28, the main contract of rebar futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [73]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [78]. Iron Ore Futures - On July 28, the main contract of iron ore futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [80]. Coke Futures - On July 28, the main contract of coke futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [85][86]. Glass Futures - On July 28, the main contract of glass futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [87]. Soda Ash Futures - On July 28, the main contract of soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [90]. Crude Oil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of crude oil futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly and widely, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [92]. PTA Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PTA futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [96]. PVC Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PVC futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [98]. Methanol Futures - On July 28, the main contract of methanol futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [100].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding price trends and trading suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate downward [2][6] - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise [2][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold -1, Silver 0 [11] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [13] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly [16] - **Lead**: Lacks clear driving force, prices oscillate [19] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate within a range [22] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [26] - **Alumina**: Market sentiment declines [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [26] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit the elasticity [29] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper 0, Zinc -1, Lead 0, Tin -1, Aluminum 0, Alumina 0, Cast Aluminum Alloy 0, Nickel 0, Stainless Steel 0 [15][18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Expected to oscillate widely, pay attention to the progress of production cuts in Jiangxi mines [34] - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to today's sentiment changes [38] - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to today's market information [39] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macroeconomic expectations, expected to oscillate strongly [42] - **Rebar**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [46] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Manganese Silicide**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Coke**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [53] - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [54] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, expected to oscillate and stabilize [57] - **P - Xylene**: The unilateral trend is weak [2] - **PTA**: Weak, conduct basis reverse arbitrage and calendar spread positive arbitrage [2] - **MEG**: The trend turns weak, conduct calendar spread reverse arbitrage [2] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is strong, cracking continues to weaken [2] - **LLDPE**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **PP**: Spot prices decline, trading is light [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to delivery pressure [2] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Glass**: The price of raw sheets is stable [2] - **Methanol**: Under short - term pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Urea**: Weakly operates in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Compress profit margins [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5] - **PVC**: Weak in the short term [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Rebounds slightly at night, may turn strong in the short term [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rises in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market is temporarily stable [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Carbonate Lithium 0, Industrial Silicon 0, Polysilicon 1, Iron Ore 0, Rebar 0, Hot - Rolled Coil 0, Silicon Ferrosilicon 0, Manganese Silicide 0, Coke 0, Coking Coal 0, Steam Coal 0 [36][41][42] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The short - term rise has reached its limit, beware of a decline in sentiment [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to oscillate within a range, pay attention to China - US trade progress [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Soybean No.1**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Sugar**: Ranges and consolidates [5] - **Cotton**: High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support futures prices [5] - **Eggs**: Spot prices turn weak [5] - **Hogs**: Strong in the real - world situation but weak in expectations, conduct reverse arbitrage [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for agricultural products Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level, lacks upward momentum [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [60] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for these commodities
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:01
2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:突破上行 | 2 | | 铜:美元回升,施压价格 | 4 | | 锌:震荡走弱 | 6 | | 铅:缺乏明确驱动,价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡:区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝:高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝:情绪回落 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍:宏观预期定方向,基本面限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢:宏观情绪主导边际,现实面仍有待修复 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 黄金:震荡回落 白银:突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | ...
LPG:化工需求高位,价格相对抗跌,丙烯:供需短期偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:58
2025 年 7 月 29 日 LPG:化工需求高位,价格相对抗跌 丙烯:供需短期偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,992 | -1.36% | 4,008 | 0.40% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,396 | -1.61% | 4,426 | 0.68% | | | PL2601 | 6,570 | -1.31% | 6,566 | -0.06% | | | PL2602 | 6,644 | -0.91% | 6,636 | -0.12% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 106,659 | -3904 | 92,218 | 4307 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 27,555 | -1370 | 62,169 | 3269 | | | PL2601 | 6,292 | -337 ...