Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - **Silver**: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - **Palladium**: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - **Lead**: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - **PTA**: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - **MEG**: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related**: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - **Sugar**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 硅铁：市场情绪消退，盘面宽幅震荡 锰硅：海外矿企报价抬升，盘面宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5632 | -36 | 229,932 | 233,205 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2605 | 5612 | -38 | 48,858 | 66,526 | | | 硅2603 锰 | 5904 | 1 2 | 172,154 | 253,107 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5926 | 6 | 99,239 | 251,279 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for tin is "Oscillating Strongly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of tin is 1, with the range of trend strength values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 352,540 with a daily increase of 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a night - session increase of 3.15%; the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 45,700 with a daily increase of 4.64% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin futures was 253,086, a decrease of 147,359 from the previous day, and the open interest was 40,737, an increase of 1,939; the trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 588, a decrease of 477, and the open interest was 23,214, an increase of 335 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,429, a decrease of 359; the futures inventory of LME Tin was 5,415, an increase of 10, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 349,750, a decrease of 5,300 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 350,900, a decrease of 2,000; the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 30, an increase of 9; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 157,480, an increase of 3,620; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 1,260, an increase of 7,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 337,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 341,750, a decrease of 5,300; the price of 63A solder bar was 233,250, a decrease of 3,500; the price of 60A solder bar was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trump said there will be no more oil or funds flowing into Cuba - British officials have not ruled out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland - The National Commercial Work Conference stated to deeply implement the special action to boost consumption - Trump was reported to have received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.550 | 5.504 | +46 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 548 | 5.480 | +68 | | | | 成交量(手) | 349.961 | 422, 430 | -72, 469 | | 期货市场 | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 215. 480 | 229.326 | -13.846 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 136, 489 | 135.506 | +983 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -26, 933 | -38, 533 | +11.600 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 50 | 46 | +4 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -800 | -754 | -46 | | | 月差 | SP03-SP05 | -34 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to be compressed [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Output**: On January 8th, steel output increased, with rebar up 2.82 tons, hot-rolled coil up 1 ton, and the total of five major varieties up 3.41 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: Total inventory of rebar increased by 16.08 tons, while that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.83 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 21.77 tons. In late December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons or 3.6% month-on-month [3][4]. - **Apparent Demand**: Apparent demand decreased, with rebar down 25.48 tons, hot-rolled coil down 2.43 tons, and the total down 44.2 tons [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In mid-December 2025, key steel enterprises' daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel all decreased. Their steel inventory increased compared to the previous ten-day period, the beginning of the year, the same period last month, and the same period last year [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4]. - In October 2025, China's imported steel volume and average price both decreased. From January to October, the cumulative imported steel volume decreased by 68.0 million tons or 11.9% year-on-year [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,410 | 0.19% | 102220 | 0.80% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,966 | 2.07% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 787,270 | -21,606 | 681,641 | -9,196 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,067 | -8,225 | 325,000 | 783 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 111,216 | 2,531 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 138,975 | -2,100 | 17.00% | -1.38% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | 41.94 | 16.75 | 25.19 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend strength of alumina is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend strength of aluminum alloy is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The price center of aluminum is expected to rise significantly; the price of alumina is driven by capital risk preference; the price of cast aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Corresponding Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,330 yuan, up 1,405 yuan from a week ago; the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,149 US dollars, up 152 US dollars from a week ago. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract have decreased compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 2,843 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day; the trading volume of the SHFE alumina main contract has decreased compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest has increased [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,985 yuan, up 400 yuan from the previous trading day; the trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract have increased compared with the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The spot premium is -100 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day; the aluminum ingot scrap price difference is 1,576 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day. The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is 718,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,693 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day; the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang is 334 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 312 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,300 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum ETF holdings continue to flow out, with prices in a range - bound oscillation; palladium prices rise and then fall, and attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [1] - Platinum trend strength is 0, and palladium trend strength is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 599.80, up 4.31%; the price of gold - exchange platinum was 592.82, up 2.26%; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2277.80, down 0.21%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2269.19, down 0.08% [1] - **Palladium prices**: The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 499.05, up 8.32%; the price of RMB spot palladium was 427.00, down 0.47%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1874.00, up 2.21%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1818.27, up 1.13% [1] - **Trading volume and positions**: For Guangdong platinum, the trading volume was 55,015 kg, an increase of 1,290 kg compared with the previous day, and the position was 39,590 kg, a decrease of 579 kg; for NYMEX platinum, the trading volume was 36,836 kg, a decrease of 10,684 kg, and the position was 104,626 kg, a decrease of 930 kg; for Guangdong palladium, the trading volume was 40,413 kg, an increase of 4,689 kg, and the position was 15,024 kg, a decrease of 142 kg; for NYMEX palladium, the trading volume was 24,824 kg, an increase of 8,662 kg, and the position was 56,773 kg, an increase of 308 kg [1] - **ETF holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,543, a decrease of 14,775; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,179,645, an increase of 3,700 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,755, a decrease of 260; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 211,306, with no change [1] - **Price spreads**: For platinum, the PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 6.98, a decrease of 11.71 compared with the previous day; the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.40, an increase of 6.90; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.38, an increase of 0.29; the spread between the Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 24.33, an increase of 29.59. For palladium, the RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 72.05, a decrease of 40.35; the Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was - 0.40, an increase of 7.40; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 6.18, an increase of 0.45; the spread between the Guangdong palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 38, an increase of 34.22 [1] - **Exchange rates**: The US dollar index was 99.14, up 0.28%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.90, down 0.20% [1] Macro and Industry News - Thailand's southern Narathiwat province has imposed a curfew [4] - The Israeli army is reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip [4] - British officials do not rule out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland [4] - The Iranian president said the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups [4] - Danish parliamentary leaders said it would be "stupid" if there was a war over Greenland [4] - US media reported that Trump was briefed on the plan to strike Iran but has not made a final decision, and the government is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [4] - In 2025, the inter - provincial trading electricity volume in the operating area of the State Grid of China reached a record high [4] - Ukraine has been frequently attacked by air raids, and the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine has reminded Chinese citizens in Ukraine to pay attention to safety [4] - China has applied for 200,000 new satellites, and experts interpret that the application has risen to the national strategic level [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for short fibers is "shockingly bullish" [1] - The investment rating for bottle chips is "shockingly bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The short - fiber futures are generally volatile, with stable spot factory quotes and a 72% average sales - to - production ratio as of 3:00 pm [1][2] - The upstream raw material futures of bottle chips are mainly volatile, and the quotes of polyester bottle chip factories are mostly stable with some local price cuts. The market trading atmosphere is average [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Short Fibers**: The price of short - fiber 2602 increased by 14 to 6472, short - fiber 2603 increased by 14 to 6504, and short - fiber 2604 decreased by 34. The PF03 - 04 spread increased by 48. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 22874 to 135252, while the主力 trading volume decreased by 14836 to 99224. The short - fiber East China spot price decreased by 5 to 6,520 [1] - **Bottle Chips**: The price of bottle chip 2602 increased by 32, bottle chip 2603 increased by 20, and bottle chip 2604 increased by 18. The PR01 - 02 spread increased by 12, and the PR02 - 03 spread increased by 2. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1025 to 43240, and the主力 trading volume increased by 3821 to 56496. The bottle - chip East China spot price remained unchanged at 6030, and the South China spot price decreased by 10 to 6080 [1] Spot News - **Short Fibers**: Short - fiber futures fluctuated, and spot factory quotes were mainly stable. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated [1][2] - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream raw material futures fluctuated. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, with some local price cuts of 10 - 20 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was average, and orders from January to March were mostly traded at 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of short fibers is 0, and that of bottle chips is 0, referring only to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff adjustment is beneficial to the short - term demand of lithium carbonate, and the market will fluctuate strongly [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **2601 Contract** - Closing price: 138,700 yuan, with a change compared to different time points (e.g., +1,700 compared to T - 1) [1] - Volume: 331, showing significant decreases compared to previous periods (e.g., - 323 compared to T - 1) [1] - Open interest: 2,374, with large declines compared to earlier times (e.g., - 1,302 compared to T - 1) [1] - **2605 Contract** - Closing price: 143,420 yuan, with corresponding changes (e.g., - 1,580 compared to T - 1) [1] - Volume: 469,479, with various changes in different time intervals (e.g., - 185,345 compared to T - 1) [1] - Open interest: 510,874, showing some fluctuations (e.g., - 3,593 compared to T - 1) [1] - **Other Data** - Warehouse receipt volume: 25,360 hands, with a change of - 410 compared to T - 1 [1] - Basis data such as spot - 2601, spot - 2605, 2601 - 2605, etc., show different changes [1] - Raw material prices (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) and lithium salt prices (battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc.) all have price changes compared to previous periods [1] - Consumption - related product prices (ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, etc.) also have corresponding price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 138,842 yuan/ton, up 1,799 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 140,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 136,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [2] - 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced from the Malibu Guni lithium mine of Hainan Mining arrived at Yangpu Port in Hainan. This marks the company's achievement of an integrated industrial chain and is the first new - energy mineral declared for entry at zero - tariff after Hainan's full - island customs closure [3] - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and it will be cancelled starting from January 1, 2027 [3]