Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The egg market is experiencing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 2,949 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.80%, a trading volume change of -21,136, and an open interest change of -9,742. The closing price of egg2601 is 3,362 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a trading volume change of -9,578, and an open interest change of -569 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 10 - 12 spread is -242, and the egg 10 - 1 spread is -413, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.50 yuan/jin, 3.38 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.96 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous day's 2,317 yuan/ton. The soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous day's 2,950 yuan/ton. The pig price in Henan is 12.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous day's 12.73 yuan/kg [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market sentiment has recovered, showing a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling, despite facing factors such as insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina [1][3]. - The soybean meal and soybean markets have different price trends. The DCE soybean meal futures and spot prices have declined, while the CBOT soybean futures have a slight increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,878 yuan/ton during the day session, down 33 yuan (-0.84%), and 3,886 yuan/ton during the night session, up 10 yuan (+0.26%). The DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton during the day session, down 102 yuan (-3.37%), and 2,917 yuan/ton during the night session, down 37 yuan (-1.25%). The CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,012.5 cents/bushel, up 1.25 cents (+0.12%), and the CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at $277/short ton, down $3.2 (-1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal spot price is 2,980 yuan/ton (Yantai Yihai), with the basis M2601 + 0, up 30 yuan compared to the previous day. In East China, the price is 2,960 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with the basis M2601 - 20, remaining flat compared to the previous day. In South China, the price ranges from 2,950 to 2,980 yuan/ton, with the basis M2601 + 0, down 70 to 40 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.96 million tons per day, and the inventory was 117.04 million tons per week, showing an increase compared to the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling. The market was affected by insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina, but it rebounded technically at the end of the session [1][3]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products, as well as beef and poultry on Monday to boost overseas sales and obtain dollars to support the peso. Chinese buyers then ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, which is a blow to US farmers [3]. - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered the US soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52 bushels per acre and estimated the soybean production to be 4.17 billion bushels [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral state for the main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Zinc prices showed a slight decline, with the closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract down 1.11% to 21,845 yuan/ton, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was up 0.05% to 2,900 dollars/ton [1]. - Multiple Fed officials support shifting the inflation target from 2% to a range - based system, and with Powell's term ending next May, the market anticipates a structural change in the Fed under new leadership [2]. - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract price decreased, while LME Zinc 3M electronic trading price slightly increased. The prices of related zinc products such as hot - dipped galvanized coils, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide also declined [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 15,195 lots to 125,331 lots, and its open interest increased by 9,947 lots to 140,372 lots. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938 lots to 10,805 lots, and its open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc showed different changes, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 9.01 dollars/ton to 45.99 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, while LME Zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. The LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 500 tons to 14,950 tons, and the LME off - warrant (T + 3) increased by 591 tons to 13,727 tons [1]. [News] - Multiple Fed officials including理事米兰, 鲍曼, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic support using an inflation target range instead of the current 2% precise target. The issue is still under discussion within the Fed despite the exclusion in the August five - year policy framework assessment [2].

锰硅：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 2025 年 9 月 24 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：9 月 23 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5400-5450，青海 5250-5350，甘肃 5350- 5400，内蒙 5350-5400；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200（+150），宁夏 6000-6100（+100），青海 6000- 6100（+100），甘肃 6000-6050（+50），内蒙 6100-6150（+100）（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）； 硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070，75#1120-1150（+20）（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方报价 5650- 5750（-50）元/吨；南方报价 5750-5800（+50）元/吨。（现金出厂含税报价） 2.铁合金在线：中天钢铁常州昨日敲定 ...

2025 年 09 月 24 日 短纤：短期反弹，加工费压缩 瓶片：短期反弹，加工费压缩 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6254 | 6276 | -22 | PF10-11 | ব | 2 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6250 | 6274 | -24 | PF11-12 | 40 | 16 | 24 | | | 短纤2512 | 6210 | 6258 | -48 | PF基差 | 145 | 151 | -6 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 215528 | 276130 | -60602 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 395 | 6.425 | -30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 17 ...

尿素：短期震荡，中期承压 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 2025 年 09 月 24 日 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,660 | - 2 -1307 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,658 | 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 112,495 | 113,802 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 304,888 | 307,396 | -2508 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,535 | 7,535 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 373,093 | 377,421 | -4327 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -48 | -40 | - 8 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -168 | -160 | - 8 | | | | 东光-盘面 ...

2025 年 9 月 24 日 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,054 | -3.27% | 9,078 | 0.27% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,086 | -3.35% | 8,100 | 0.17% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,996 | -1.45% | 9,919 | -0.77% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,341 | -2.27% | 4,353 | 0.23% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.84 | 0.30% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 1,021,148 | 459441 | 387,927 | -15,956 ...

2025 年 09 月 24 日 工业硅：期货仓单增加，关注市场情绪波动 多晶硅：盘面下跌，短期非标出货偏好 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,925 | -25 | 10 | 180 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 418,680 | -168,007 | 29,105 | -201,958 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 273,696 | -11,794 | -13,488 | -5,685 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,260 | -730 | -3,410 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 296,108 | 42,973 | -20,286 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report focuses on the cotton market, tracking its fundamentals, including futures and spot prices, and analyzing industry news. The overall market shows a complex situation with factors such as limited spot trading, stable seed - cotton purchase prices, and limited sales volume in the cotton - textile market [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,540 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.51% daily increase, and 13,580 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.30% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,660 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.08% increase, and 19,765 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.53% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 66.61 cents/pound with a 0.54% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 325,107 lots, a decrease of 104,804 lots from the previous day, and the position was 753,685 lots, an increase of 16,137 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 9,857 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 14,281 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,915, a decrease of 181 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 12 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0 with no change [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or - 0.47% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or - 0.48% from the previous day. The price of cotton in Shandong was 15,151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan or - 0.71% from the previous day. The price of cotton in Hebei was 15,153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or - 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan or - 0.60% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents or - 0.15% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or - 0.43% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,432 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with limited inventory and few market offers. The sales basis of most spot goods remained stable. The purchase price of seed cotton was stable. The price of hand - picked cotton with about 39 - 40% lint percentage and less than 12% moisture in Xinjiang was 7.15 - 7.35 yuan/kg, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg. There were different basis quotes for different cotton types in different regions [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market was limited. The high - end quotes of pure - cotton yarn decreased, and the actual trading center moved down slightly. Spinning mills mainly sold goods at a discount. The sales of the all - cotton grey fabric market were not as good as before, and the fabric prices were mostly negotiable. Most weaving factories said it was difficult to make a profit recently. Small and medium - sized weaving factories had poor orders and planned to have a holiday during the National Day [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly yesterday, and its recent trend was affected by the trend of crude oil [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

烧碱：弱现实压制 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2535 780 2438 -98 2025 年 9 月 24 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，9 月 23 日山东低度碱市场局部弱势稳定，高价下游抵触下，部分企业库存略显压 力，本周重点是企业降库应对假期。目前市场低价已接近成本线，部分下游开始有计划补库。高度碱则受到 短期订单支撑，暂时反弹。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解。虽然 50 碱的支撑会导致现 货短期进一步下跌空间或有限，但期货盘面受近月多头接货压力压制，短期或低位震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润 ...