2025 年 9 月 24 日 沥青：山东厂库承压，华东出货走稳 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,373 | -0.82% | 3,399 | 0.77% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,320 | -0.95% | 3,347 | 0.81% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2511 | 手 | 182,087 | 14,686 | 231,822 | (4,519) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 55,821 | 16,504 | 92,377 | 7,166 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 58120 | -1260 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

2025年09月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：期货仓单增加，关注市场情绪波动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面下跌，短期非标出货偏好 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）印尼矿业部长巴利勒·拉哈达利亚周三(2025-7-2)表示，印尼计划将采矿配额期限从目前的三年 缩短至一年，以改善该行业的治理并更好地控制煤炭和矿石供应。 2）印尼镍矿开采商协会 (APNI) 透露，政府批准的 2025 年工作计划和预算 (RKAB) 产量为 3.64 亿吨。这高于 2024 年 3.19 亿吨的目标。 3）据东方财富网，印尼某镍铁冶炼产业园因长期生产亏损，全部 EF 产线已于近期暂停生产。该产业 园包含 4 个 EF 镍铁冶炼项目（11 ...

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或超跌反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场情绪修复，反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：关注"桦加沙"对蔗区的影响 | 8 | | 棉花：关注籽棉成交价格 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季不旺 | 11 | | 生猪：节前集中释放矛盾阶段 | 12 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,05 ...

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：资金情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 802. 5 | -6. 0 | -0. 74% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第161期) 建议缺口企业在10月底前分批逢低采购 策略 国家君安期货 发布日期:2025-09-22 今日 CEA价格继续下跌,活跃度大幅下降 1、CEA:价格继续下跌；挂牌19.3万吨，大宗10.0万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.93万吨,成交均价78.14元/吨（2.80%） (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月强制流通配额 才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反转的迹 界。 核心 逻辑 29月起，重点排放单位陆续根据核定配额发放情况制定交易计划,强制流通配额加速 释放,碳价或承压运行。 大宗协议成交量 0.00 0. 00 10. 00 0. 00 0. 00 单项竞价成交量 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 0.00 270. 33 0. 00 0. 00 1345. 66 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) -碳配额21 ·碳配额19-20 碳配额22 ·碳配额21 几/吨 ·碳配额22 工/吨。 ·碳配额19-2 ...

Report Date - The report is dated September 23, 2025 [1] Core View - Near - month implied volatility of stock index options declined, and ETF options are approaching maturity [2] Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2919.51, 4519.78, and 7408.07 respectively, with declines of 2.66, 2.83, and 81.41. Their trading volumes were 62.90 billion, 252.83 billion, and 313.26 billion hands, with increases of 15.92 billion, 56.37 billion, and 42.90 billion hands [3]. - Among ETFs, the closing prices of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF, Huatai - Ber瑞 300 ETF, and Southern 500 ETF were 3.054, 4.622, and 7.277 respectively. Their trading volumes were 11.09 billion, 10.55 billion, and 2.63 billion hands, with increases of 4.75 billion, 4.26 billion, and 0.27 billion hands [3]. Options Market Statistics - For stock index options, the trading volumes of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options were 42,909, 144,639, and 356,629 respectively, with increases of 11,816, 59,101, and 158,745. Their open interests were 65,341, 160,079, and 256,191 respectively, with increases of 3,328, 8,935, and 20,421 [3]. - For ETF options, the trading volumes of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF Options, Huatai - Ber瑞 300 ETF Options, and Southern 500 ETF Options were 1,454,290, 1,773,324, and 2,672,050 respectively, with increases of 343,922, 777,161, and 1,053,272. Their open interests were 1,832,560, 1,481,812, and 1,365,560 respectively, with changes of - 18,141, 12,508, and 26,037 [3]. Options Volatility Statistics - In the near - month period, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options were 20.02%, 20.21%, and 28.14% respectively, with declines of 0.46%, 0.70%, and 0.88% [6]. - For ETF options, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF Options, Huatai - Ber瑞 300 ETF Options, and Southern 500 ETF Options were 17.31%, 16.98%, and 17.05% respectively, with declines of 1.25%, 0.63%, and 3.42% [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts for different options, including full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skew trend charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, CSI 1000 Index Options, and multiple ETF options [10][14][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly. Gold and silver futures are likely to reach new highs [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 23, 2025, index futures are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4518 and 4545 points and support levels at 4455 and 4444 points [2][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 23, 2025 [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly and reach new highs. For instance, the gold futures contract AU2512 will attack resistance levels at 855.0 and 860.0 yuan/gram, and the silver futures contract AG2512 will attack resistance levels at 10400 and 10500 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while aluminum and alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate weakly on September 23, 2025 [3][4][6]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **International Relations**: Trump said he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the two sides are communicating [7]. - **Economic Data**: China's 1 - year LPR in September was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year and above variety was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. Some analysts believe that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Financial Market**: As of the end of June, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond market sizes ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve size ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On September 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 2.03% to 3781.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.17% to 44.32 US dollars/ounce [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On September 22, international oil prices oscillated narrowly. The main contract of US crude oil fell 0.10% to 62.34 US dollars/barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.05% to 66.01 US dollars/barrel [11]. - **Base Metals**: On September 22, London base metals showed mixed results. LME zinc rose 0.38%, LME lead rose 0.15%, LME copper rose 0.13%, while LME tin fell 0.44%, LME nickel fell 0.46%, and LME aluminum fell 0.62% [11]. - **Exchange Rates**: On September 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1148 at 16:30, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1138 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1106, up 22 basis points from the previous trading day [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On September 22, index futures generally showed a small - scale upward trend. For example, the main contract IF2512 of CSI 300 index futures rose 0.30% (0.44% based on the closing price) [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 22, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.20%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [36]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures continued to rise and reached new highs. For example, the gold futures contract AU2512 reached a new high of 851.98 yuan/gram during the night trading on September 23 [45]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures showed a small - scale upward trend, while aluminum and alumina futures showed a downward trend on September 22 [59][63]. - **Industrial and Agricultural Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed different degrees of decline on September 22 [70][71][80].

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | | 收盘价(日盘) 涨跌 | | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | +6 (+0. 15%) DCE豆一2511(元/吨) 3912 | | 3884 | -27 (-0.69%) | | 期货 | DCE豆粕2601 (元/吨) 3034 +30 (+1.00%) | | 2983 | -47 (-1.55%) | | | CBOT大豆11(美分/蒲) 1011.25 -14.75 (-1. 44%) | | | | | | na -4.0 (-1.41%) CBOT豆粕12(美元/短吨) 280. 2 豆粕(43%) | | | | | | 3010~3040,较昨+20至+40:现货基差M2601+0/-30,较昨持平或-10:10-1月 M2601+50/+80,持平:11-1月M2601+40/+70:12-1月M2601+50:2026年2-4月 山东(元/吨)。 | ...

2025 年 9 月 23 日 来源: Mysteel,同花顺,国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 9月 18日钢联周度数据:产量方面,螺纹-5.48万吨,热卷+1.35万吨,五大品种合计-1.78万吨; 总库存方面,螺纹-3.58万吨,热卷+4.67万吨,五大品种合计+5.13万吨;表需方面,螺纹+11.96万吨, 热卷-4.34万吨,五大品种合计+7万吨。(数据来源:上海钢联) 2025 年 8 月，全国生产粗钢 7737 万吨、同比下降 0.7%，日产 249.58 万吨/日、环比下降 2.9%; 生 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园(联系人) 期货从业资格号: F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2601 | 3.185 | 27 18 | 0. 85 | | 期货 | HC2601 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations after the release of new policy signals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On September 22, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF rose 0.25%, IH rose 0.18%, IC rose 0.36%, and IM rose 0.47% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 52,955 lots, IH by 16,499 lots, IC by 72,929 lots, and IM by 105,450 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF decreased by 745 lots, IH increased by 3,869 lots, IC decreased by 7,430 lots, and IM decreased by 10,197 lots [1][2]. - The base differences and trading data of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in detail in the table, including closing prices, price changes, base differences, trading volumes, and position changes [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Position Changes - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, with some data not disclosed [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4 Important Drivers - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng introduced that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's financial industry achieved new major achievements. By the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the scale of the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve scale ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. China is also at the forefront in green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance. The RMB cross - border payment and settlement network is basically established, and mobile payment is internationally leading. In addition, the number of financing platforms decreased by 60% compared with March 2023, and the financial debt scale decreased by more than 50%. At the end of July, overseas institutions and individuals held 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits and loans. The issuance scale of panda bonds by overseas institutions exceeded 1 trillion yuan. In terms of financial support for real - estate risk resolution, policies such as the down - payment ratio and mortgage interest rates were optimized, and the stock mortgage interest rates were reduced, saving over 300 billion yuan in interest expenses for over 50 million households annually [6][7]. - Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze stated that since the "14th Five - Year Plan", the financial operation has been generally stable, with major regulatory indicators such as non - performing loans, capital adequacy, and solvency improving steadily and being in a healthy range. Over the past five years, the disposal of non - performing assets increased by more than 40% compared with the "13th Five - Year Plan" period. The total scale of capital and provisions for the industry to resist risks exceeded 50 trillion yuan. Currently, the total assets of the banking and insurance industries exceed 500 trillion yuan, with an average growth of nearly 9% in five years. The number and scale of high - risk institutions and assets have dropped significantly from their peaks, and the risks are fully controllable. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Financial Regulatory Administration cracked down on financial irregularities, punished illegal shareholders, and guided financial resources to the real economy [8]. - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the CSRC issued 2,214 administrative penalties for cases such as financial fraud, market manipulation, and insider trading, with fines and confiscations totaling 41.4 billion yuan, an increase of 58% and 30% respectively compared with the "13th Five - Year Plan" period. The A - share market's resilience and risk - resistance ability have been significantly enhanced, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index at 15.9%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared with the "13th Five - Year Plan" period. In August this year, the total market value of the A - share market exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time. Listed companies' awareness of rewarding investors has increased significantly, with a total of 10.6 trillion yuan distributed through dividends and share buybacks in the past five years, an increase of more than 80% compared with the "13th Five - Year Plan" period. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 13 foreign - controlled securities, fund, and futures institutions were newly approved to operate in China. Foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value, and 269 enterprises were listed overseas. The default rate of exchange - traded bonds has been maintained at a low level of about 1% [9].