2025 年 07 月 29 日 豆粕：调整震荡 豆一：调整震荡 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4153 | +70（-1.66%） -43（-1.03%） 4140 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2990 | -35（-1.16%） 2977 -24（-0.80%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1011.5 | -10.25（-1.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 279.4 | n a -2.3（-0.82%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 较昨-20至持平； 2890～2910， M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-20或-10； 9月M2509+0， | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF rose 0.18%, IH rose 0.39%, IC rose 0.18%, and IM rose 0.11% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 547 lots, IH decreased by 870 lots, IC increased by 11,258 lots, and IM increased by 26,844 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 3,663 lots, IH decreased by 1,993 lots, IC increased by 3,134 lots, and IM increased by 11,728 lots [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4131.2, 4122, 4090.8, and 4057 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.16%, 0.11%, and 0.07%. The trading volumes were 23,316, 54,638, 10,792, and 4,247 respectively, and the position changes were +1,739, +1,331, +620, and +1,213 respectively [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2806, 2805.8, 2807.4, and 2809.6 respectively, with increases of 0.39%, 0.36%, 0.34%, and 0.34%. The trading volumes were 12,722, 28,883, 3,824, and 928 respectively, and the position changes were -1,590, +403, -111, and +111 respectively [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6274, 6222, 6091.4, and 5973 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.09%, 0.01%, and 0.00%. The trading volumes were 23,810, 46,353, 13,923, and 4,105 respectively, and the position changes were +504, +1,256, +655, and +719 respectively [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6674.6, 6602, 6419.4, and 6256.2 respectively, with increases of 0.11%, -0.04%, -0.03%, and -0.06%. The trading volumes were 39,355, 116,079, 24,230, and 6,593 respectively, and the position changes were +2,878, +73,550, +311, and +1,017 respectively [1]. 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 1629, short - order increase was 1637; for IF2509, long - order increase was 2353, short - order increase was 586; for IF2512, long - order decrease was 387, short - order decrease was 632 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508, long - order decrease was 1014, short - order decrease was 1318; for IH2509, long - order increase was 232, short - order decrease was 20; for IH2512, long - order decrease was 79, short - order increase was 335 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 459, short - order increase was 8; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2181, short - order increase was 1272; for IC2512, long - order increase was 147, short - order increase was 413 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 3017, short - order increase was 2265; for IM2509, long - order increase was 6181, short - order increase was 7275; for IM2512, long - order increase was 683, short - order increase was 623 [5]. 3.3 趋势强度 - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4 重要驱动 - On July 28, the China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, Sweden [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the child - rearing subsidy system and fertility support measures on July 30 [7]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized measures to consolidate the industrial economy, including implementing a new round of stable - growth actions in ten key industries, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, and continuing to maintain the stable development of the tobacco industry [7].

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16915 | -0.24% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2020.5 | -0.12% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 72526 | 25763 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5355 | -734 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 70546 | -2781 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 141082 | -1210 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -50 | -15 | LM ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a weak - side oscillatory trend due to sector - wide market resonance [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are anticipated to have a weak oscillatory trend as a result of the game between capital and reality [2][11] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillatory trend as market sentiment is realized [2][15] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory trend as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have a repeated oscillatory trend [2][21] Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures was 786.0 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2.06%. The positions decreased by 39,554 hands. Among spot prices, the price of domestic ore in some regions increased, while imported ore decreased. Most of the price differences decreased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 futures decreased by 2.05% and 2.30% respectively. The positions of both decreased. Most of the spot prices and price differences changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, Steel Union's weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products. In mid - July 2025, the production of key steel enterprises increased. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price differences showed various changes [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed changes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon. In July, the operating rate and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in some regions increased [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased significantly. The positions decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the price differences also showed changes [15] - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were provided. On July 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index changed. The positions of coking coal and coke futures decreased [15][16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas were provided. The positions of the ZC2508 contract remained unchanged [18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed various changes. The prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public comments on the Draft Amendment to the Price Law [24] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak trend [24]

锡基本面数据 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 29 日 锡：区间震荡 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 267,880 | -1.38% | 267,310 | -0.51% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 33,670 | -1.38% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 99,762 | 32,826 | 31,508 | 20,158 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 ...

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 6 | | 棉花：高基差和供应偏紧担忧继续支撑期价 | 7 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，趋势反套 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,946 | 0.11% | 8,924 | -0.25% | ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2509 | 5840 | -326 | 1,218,323 | 196,312 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2510 | 5832 | -324 | 102,425 | 40,125 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 6028 | -386 | 1,247,227 | 353,406 | | | 锰 硅2510 | 6032 | -366 | 57,825 | 22,912 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 蒙 | | 5500 | - | 元/吨 ...

Report Overview - Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the progress of production cuts and shutdowns in Jiangxi mines [2][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to today's sentiment change [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to today's market information [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,620 yuan, down 2,740 yuan from T - 1; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan, down 190 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 297,904 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 349,991 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than in 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped due to losses [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,120 yuan, down 7,400 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,005,395 lots. The spot - 2509 basis was 780 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; a national industrial and informatization meeting proposed to strengthen industry governance [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; the PS2509 closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1. The silicon factory profit in Xinjiang was - 1476 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The European solar market is expected to have a negative growth rate of - 1.4% in 2025 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, -1 indicates a weak or bearish trend, 0 indicates a neutral trend, and 1 indicates a bullish trend [10][15][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily and short - to - medium - term outlooks for multiple energy and chemical commodities. Many commodities are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to factors such as the weakening of anti - involution sentiment, large - scale selling of speculative funds, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. Some commodities may enter a mid - term oscillatory pattern due to the ongoing anti - involution policy and supply - side optimization [11][20][57] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend is weakening. Suggest selling at high prices for hedging, going long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN at high levels. Future Asian PX supply is expected to gradually increase [11] - **PTA**: Unilateral trend turns weak. Industries can sell at high prices for hedging. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts. The spot supply pressure continues to increase, and the basis is suitable for reverse arbitrage. Consider the 9 - 1 spread for positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: Short - term bearish. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts and the delivery pressure on the 09 contract. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L for arbitrage. The supply is relatively loose in the short term [12] Rubber - The rubber market is expected to be weak and oscillatory. The price is supported at the bottom due to high raw material prices caused by weather, but the downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the inventory in Qingdao port is slightly increasing [14][17] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is under oscillatory pressure. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. Factors include the exit of speculative funds, the strengthening of the basis, and the support from the anti - involution policy and the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals [18][20] Asphalt - The asphalt market shows a pattern of strong crude oil and weak cracking spread. The overall trend is neutral. The domestic asphalt production has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][35] LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate weakly. The anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry. The supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is weak [36][37] PP - The PP market has seen a decline in spot prices and light trading. The trend is bearish. The futures market has affected the spot market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing confidence is insufficient [40][41] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market should focus on the delivery pressure. The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is still hope for demand in the peak season. It is currently in the off - season, with weak price - increasing power but strong cost support [43][45] Pulp - The pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory. The futures price has declined, and the spot market is stable but with poor trading. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [48][50] Glass - The glass market shows stable prices for the original sheets. The short - term trend is bearish. The spot price has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is active, but the futures price has declined significantly [52][53] Methanol - The methanol market is under short - term oscillatory pressure. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The anti - involution policy and supply - side factors support the market [55][57] Urea - The urea market is in short - term weak operation. In the short term, it is expected to correct from a high level, and in the medium term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The anti - involution policy and potential second - batch exports may support the market [59][61] Styrene - The styrene market is focused on compressing profits. It is currently in a high - production, high - profit, and high - inventory pattern, and is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory is accelerating the accumulation [62][63] Soda Ash - The soda ash market shows little change in the spot market. The short - term trend is bearish. The spot price has increased slightly, and the supply has decreased, but the demand is average [64] PVC - The PVC market is short - term weak. The anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounded slightly, and the short - term trend may turn strong [70] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term price is rising, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [70] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions on the October contract and 10 - 12 spread reverse arbitrage. The index is oscillating weakly, and the price changes are affected by factors such as shipping company price adjustments and ship - schedule delays [72][77]