Group 1: General Information - The report date is January 12, 2026, and it focuses on the pig industry with the view that demand has negative feedback and supply is expected to increase [1] Group 2: Pig Fundamental Data - Henan spot price is 12,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,100 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 12,760 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2] - Futures prices: the price of pig 2603 is 11,770 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; pig 2605 is 12,215 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; pig 2607 is 12,895 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [2] - Futures trading volume and position: the trading volume of pig 2603 is 52,974 lots, a decrease of 35,439 lots from the previous day, and the position is 168,424 lots, a decrease of 2,847 lots from the previous day; pig 2605 has a trading volume of 13,575 lots, a decrease of 15,259 lots from the previous day, and a position of 97,479 lots, an increase of 211 lots from the previous day; pig 2607 has a trading volume of 3,166 lots, a decrease of 3,599 lots from the previous day, and a position of 43,983 lots, an increase of 101 lots from the previous day [2] - Price spreads: the basis of pig 2603 is 1,210 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the basis of pig 2605 is 765 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton; the basis of pig 2607 is 85 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between pig 2603 and 2605 is - 445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spread between pig 2605 and 2607 is - 680 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the value range from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the situation of negative impacts from the MPOB report being realized [1] - For soybean oil, the momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the unilateral movement will be mainly within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,682 yuan/ton (up 0.81% during the day, down 0.25% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,994 yuan/ton (up 0.63% during the day, down 0.38% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,042 yuan/ton (up 0.96% during the day, down 0.71% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,038 ringgit/ton (down 0.12%), and the CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.66 cents/pound (up 0.42%) [1] - **Trading and Positions**: Palm oil主力 had 366,106 lots traded yesterday (a decrease of 264,124 lots), with a position of 400,553 lots (an increase of 6,659 lots); soybean oil主力 had 203,820 lots traded (a decrease of 54,998 lots), with a position of 681,661 lots (an increase of 16,768 lots); rapeseed oil主力 had 199,123 lots traded (a decrease of 110,870 lots), with a position of 245,121 lots (a decrease of 3,461 lots) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton (a price change of 60 yuan), the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton (a price change of 30 yuan), the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (a price change of 100 yuan), and the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,025 US dollars/ton (a price change of 20 US dollars) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 2 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 536 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 908 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 360 yuan/ton (compared to 344 yuan/ton the day before), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 688 yuan/ton (compared to - 668 yuan/ton the day before), the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 112 yuan/ton (unchanged), the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 156 yuan/ton (compared to 130 yuan/ton the day before), and the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 21 yuan/ton (compared to 13 yuan/ton the day before) [1] **Macro and Industry News** - On January 10, 2026, a 7.1 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia [2] - Analysts on average expect the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.229 billion bushels, with an estimated range between 4.176 - 4.3 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 4.253 billion bushels in November [3][4] - The State Council executive meeting pointed out the need to strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and financial policies, and optimize loan discount policies for service - sector businesses and individual consumer loans [4] - In the second week of 2026 (from January 3 to January 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the previous week, and 61,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 48.58% [4] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple raw material prices such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have increased, leading to a significant rise in the overall production cost of semi - steel tires. As a result, the theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products has declined, but it remains in the profitable range [5]. - In 2025, the export market of semi - steel tires faced pressure, with a slowdown in growth compared to the previous two years. In 2026, with strong raw material prices and uncertain demand, more companies are expected to join promotional activities to boost sales. New production capacities will continue to be released, intensifying price competition and putting pressure on industry profits [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The daily closing price of the rubber futures main contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume was 343,450 lots, a decrease of 12,740 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 197,718 lots, an increase of 1,250 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Short Position**: The warehouse receipt quantity was 104,490 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 43,945 lots, an increase of 3,455 lots [2]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 330 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 980 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of RU05 - RU09 was 25 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 20, 20, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [2]. - **Qingdao Import Market**: The prices of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Raw Material Price Changes**: As of January 8, the price of Thai 20 mixed standard rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, up 4.87% month - on - month and down 5.57% year - on - year. The price of carbon black was about 6,200 yuan/ton, up 5.08% month - on - month and down 4.62% year - on - year. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as styrene - butadiene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly, and some auxiliary products also rose to varying degrees [5]. - **Cost and Profit of Semi - steel Tires**: As of January 8, the raw material cost index of semi - steel tires was 13,032.80, up 5.13% month - on - month. The theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products decreased, with the profit of the mid - range brand 205/55R16 product at 0.36 yuan/kg, down 1.09 yuan/kg month - on - month [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term trend of fuel oil has weakened significantly, but there is still support below. The night session of low - sulfur fuel oil continued to rise, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to rebound [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Change**: FU2602 closed at 2,537 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.09%, and its settlement price was 2,519 yuan/ton with a 1.94% increase; FU2603 closed at 2,514 yuan/ton with a 1.94% increase, and its settlement price was 2,494 yuan/ton with a 1.46% increase; LU2602 closed at 3,056 yuan/ton with a 3.98% increase, and its settlement price was 3,016 yuan/ton with a 2.83% increase; LU2603 closed at 3,032 yuan/ton with a 2.83% increase, and its settlement price was 2,998 yuan/ton with a 2.71% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Change**: The trading volume of FU2602 was 9,439 lots with an increase of 1,599 lots, and its position decreased by 1,393 lots; the trading volume of FU2603 was 860,405 lots with an increase of 245,605 lots, and its position increased by 32,052 lots; the trading volume of LU2602 was 2,296 lots with an increase of 571 lots, and its position decreased by 1,031 lots; the trading volume of LU2603 was 183,215 lots with an increase of 67,757 lots, and its position increased by 4,137 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Change**: The total market warehouse receipt of fuel oil decreased by 7,890 to 84,450, and the warehouse receipt of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 4,360 to 22,760 [1] - **Spot Price and Change**: In Singapore FOB, the price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 340.9 US dollars/ton with a 1.95% increase, and the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 413.5 US dollars/ton with a 2.37% increase; in Singapore Bunker, the high - sulfur price was 357.0 US dollars/ton with a 2.00% increase, and the low - sulfur price was 427.0 US dollars/ton with a 2.40% increase; in other regions, prices also showed different degrees of change [1] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between FU02 - 03 was 23 yuan/ton, the price difference between LU02 - 03 was 24 yuan/ton, the price difference between LU02 - FU02 was 519 yuan/ton; the price difference between FU2602 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 156.9 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase, the price difference between LU2602 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 169.0 yuan/ton with a 50.2 - yuan increase, and the price difference between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 72.6 US dollars/ton with a 3.1 - US - dollar increase [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the short term, the urea price is expected to correct due to downstream resistance and weakening spot trading, but the correction amplitude is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and it remains bullish in the medium term [4]. - The demand - side drive is neutral - slightly strong due to continuous procurement by reserves and the grass - roots level, and whether the drive can go further up depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [4]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton (policy pressure line), and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,779 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 107,441 lots, the position volume of the 05 contract was 232,407 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,850 tons, and the turnover was 382.293 million yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 27, the UR05 - UR09 spread was 23 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, such as Henan Xinlianxin at 1,770 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,740 yuan/ton. The price of Yankuang Xinjiang increased by 10 to 1,320 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 15 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions were 1,750 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shandong price down 10 [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points, and the daily output was 200,580 tons, up 1,100 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 0.003 million tons or 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory in some provinces decreased, including Henan, Heilongjiang, etc., while in some provinces increased, such as Anhui, Hainan, etc. [3] - The urea trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for the end of adjustment. The current situation shows a mixed picture with some factors indicating weakness and others suggesting a wait - and - see attitude. The trend strength of cotton is neutral [1][2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.44% daily increase and 14,490 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 1.26% increase; CY2603 closed at 20,690 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.50% daily increase and 20,535 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.75% increase; ICE US cotton 3 was at 64.48 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2605 yesterday was 646,858 lots, a decrease of 198,137 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,200,876 lots, an increase of 1,238 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 was 9,754 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 16,816 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,388, an increase of 199, and the effective forecast was 2,299, an increase of 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 3 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Shandong was 16,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Hebei was 15,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan or - 0.66%; the 3128B index was 15,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.46 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.48%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,044 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% [1] - **Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot basis quotes are relatively stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF05 + 950 or above. The freight for cotton out of Xinjiang by truck has dropped significantly [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable, but the trading atmosphere is weak. The operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises is low, with most orders being small and short - term. The inventory of grey cloth is higher than the same period in previous years, and the purchasing intention of weaving factories is weak [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly. Although the strengthening of the US dollar has an adverse impact on ICE cotton, there is no new negative news in the international cotton market. ICE cotton is in a low - level oscillating pattern, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [- 2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the fermentation of geopolitical conflicts in various regions, international energy prices are running strongly. Butadiene and synthetic rubber, as part of the oil product sector, may be supported by short - term sector fluctuations. The butadiene market has a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, with its fundamentals being short - term neutral. The apparent demand for synthetic rubber remains high, and its fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, mainly fluctuating with the cost side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber (BR) 02 contract, the daily closing price decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 12,015 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 66,416 lots to 101,221 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,889 lots to 26,339 lots, and the trading value decreased by 418,950 ten - thousand yuan to 609,966 ten - thousand yuan [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis (Shandong BR - futures main contract) increased by 80 to - 15, and the monthly spread (BR02 - BR05) remained unchanged at - 35. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,600, 11,650, and 11,700 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber model 1502 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton, and model 1712 remained unchanged at 11,100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,250 and 9,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.4 Fundamentals - The BR operating rate increased by 0.02% to 79.6897%, and the theoretical full cost and profit of BR remained unchanged at 11,873 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 7, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships decreased significantly, the downstream industries had good operating rates, and the raw material inventory was normally consumed, leading to the decline in port inventory [2] - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic BR inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. The domestic BR production remained at a high level, and the market was boosted by the sharp increase in raw material prices. The production enterprises' shipments improved, but there was some unsold inventory waiting to be picked up. The overall inventory change was limited, and the inventory of some sample traders decreased slightly [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of downward drivers [1] - The spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening, and the trend is strong [2] 3. Summary of Key Information by Category 3.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2602 closed at 4,221 with a 0.52% daily increase and 4,246 at night with a 0.59% increase; PG2603 closed at 4,136 with a 0.80% daily increase and 4,155 at night with a 0.46% increase. PL2602, PL2603, and PL2604 also showed different price changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts have changed compared to the previous day, such as PG2602's trading volume decreased by 5299 to 47,344, and its open interest decreased by 8297 to 33,462 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads of different regions and contracts have also changed, like the Guangzhou domestic gas to PG02 contract spread decreased from 661 to 639 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Data - **PDH, MTBE, and Alkylation Unit Operating Rates**: The PDH operating rate this week is 75.6%, up from 75.1% last week; the MTBE operating rate is 67.6%, down from 68.0%; the alkylation unit operating rate is 38.2%, up slightly from 38.1% [2] 3.3 Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the February CP paper goods price for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was 516 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The March CP paper goods price for propane was 506 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] - **Domestic PDH Unit Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH unit maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. with a 15 - unit bDH starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [8] - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Several LPG plants have maintenance plans, like Rizhao (CNOOC) with a full - plant shutdown starting on January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, both in a neutral state [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to downstream production cuts in industrial silicon and indicating that polysilicon will experience range - bound fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,715 yuan/ton, with a change of - 145 yuan/ton compared to T - 5; the PS2605 closing price was 51,300 yuan/ton, down 6,620 yuan/ton from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium or discount showed different values when benchmarked against different products, such as + 535 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530. The polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - investment was + 3950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 55000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from T - 1 [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2611.5 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4919 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 10.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.2 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from T - 5. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 30.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions remained relatively stable, with little change compared to previous periods [1]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Sector**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.39 yuan/watt. The price of photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) was 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.75 yuan/cubic meter from T - 5 [1]. - **Profits in the Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Sectors**: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit was 1612 yuan/ton. The ADC12 price was 23700 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 330 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Japan's Toyo (TOYO) has signed a one - year supply agreement with an unnamed US polysilicon manufacturer to secure raw material supply for its 2GW solar cell factory in Ethiopia and 1GW component factory in Houston, Texas. TOYO plans to expand its Ethiopian production capacity to 4GW and Texas component production capacity to 2.5GW later this year. As of the end of 2025, the in - operation capacity of domestic polysilicon in the US reached 33GW, but the in - operation capacity of active silicon ingots and wafers was only 8.3GW [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - **MEG**: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - **Pulp**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - **Methanol**: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - **Urea**: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - **Short - fiber**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].