Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple raw material prices such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have increased, leading to a significant rise in the overall production cost of semi - steel tires. As a result, the theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products has declined, but it remains in the profitable range [5]. - In 2025, the export market of semi - steel tires faced pressure, with a slowdown in growth compared to the previous two years. In 2026, with strong raw material prices and uncertain demand, more companies are expected to join promotional activities to boost sales. New production capacities will continue to be released, intensifying price competition and putting pressure on industry profits [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Changes**: The daily closing price of the rubber futures main contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume was 343,450 lots, a decrease of 12,740 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 197,718 lots, an increase of 1,250 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Short Position**: The warehouse receipt quantity was 104,490 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 43,945 lots, an increase of 3,455 lots [2]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 330 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 980 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of RU05 - RU09 was 25 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Foreign Quotes**: The quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 20, 20, 15, and 20 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - **Substitute Products**: The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [2]. - **Qingdao Import Market**: The prices of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Raw Material Price Changes**: As of January 8, the price of Thai 20 mixed standard rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, up 4.87% month - on - month and down 5.57% year - on - year. The price of carbon black was about 6,200 yuan/ton, up 5.08% month - on - month and down 4.62% year - on - year. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as styrene - butadiene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly, and some auxiliary products also rose to varying degrees [5]. - **Cost and Profit of Semi - steel Tires**: As of January 8, the raw material cost index of semi - steel tires was 13,032.80, up 5.13% month - on - month. The theoretical profit of semi - steel tire products decreased, with the profit of the mid - range brand 205/55R16 product at 0.36 yuan/kg, down 1.09 yuan/kg month - on - month [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term trend of fuel oil has weakened significantly, but there is still support below. The night session of low - sulfur fuel oil continued to rise, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to rebound [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Change**: FU2602 closed at 2,537 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.09%, and its settlement price was 2,519 yuan/ton with a 1.94% increase; FU2603 closed at 2,514 yuan/ton with a 1.94% increase, and its settlement price was 2,494 yuan/ton with a 1.46% increase; LU2602 closed at 3,056 yuan/ton with a 3.98% increase, and its settlement price was 3,016 yuan/ton with a 2.83% increase; LU2603 closed at 3,032 yuan/ton with a 2.83% increase, and its settlement price was 2,998 yuan/ton with a 2.71% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Change**: The trading volume of FU2602 was 9,439 lots with an increase of 1,599 lots, and its position decreased by 1,393 lots; the trading volume of FU2603 was 860,405 lots with an increase of 245,605 lots, and its position increased by 32,052 lots; the trading volume of LU2602 was 2,296 lots with an increase of 571 lots, and its position decreased by 1,031 lots; the trading volume of LU2603 was 183,215 lots with an increase of 67,757 lots, and its position increased by 4,137 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Change**: The total market warehouse receipt of fuel oil decreased by 7,890 to 84,450, and the warehouse receipt of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 4,360 to 22,760 [1] - **Spot Price and Change**: In Singapore FOB, the price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 340.9 US dollars/ton with a 1.95% increase, and the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 413.5 US dollars/ton with a 2.37% increase; in Singapore Bunker, the high - sulfur price was 357.0 US dollars/ton with a 2.00% increase, and the low - sulfur price was 427.0 US dollars/ton with a 2.40% increase; in other regions, prices also showed different degrees of change [1] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between FU02 - 03 was 23 yuan/ton, the price difference between LU02 - 03 was 24 yuan/ton, the price difference between LU02 - FU02 was 519 yuan/ton; the price difference between FU2602 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 156.9 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase, the price difference between LU2602 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 169.0 yuan/ton with a 50.2 - yuan increase, and the price difference between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 72.6 US dollars/ton with a 3.1 - US - dollar increase [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the short term, the urea price is expected to correct due to downstream resistance and weakening spot trading, but the correction amplitude is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and it remains bullish in the medium term [4]. - The demand - side drive is neutral - slightly strong due to continuous procurement by reserves and the grass - roots level, and whether the drive can go further up depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [4]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton (policy pressure line), and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,779 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 107,441 lots, the position volume of the 05 contract was 232,407 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,850 tons, and the turnover was 382.293 million yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 27, the UR05 - UR09 spread was 23 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, such as Henan Xinlianxin at 1,770 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,740 yuan/ton. The price of Yankuang Xinjiang increased by 10 to 1,320 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 15 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions were 1,750 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shandong price down 10 [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points, and the daily output was 200,580 tons, up 1,100 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 0.003 million tons or 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory in some provinces decreased, including Henan, Heilongjiang, etc., while in some provinces increased, such as Anhui, Hainan, etc. [3] - The urea trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for the end of adjustment. The current situation shows a mixed picture with some factors indicating weakness and others suggesting a wait - and - see attitude. The trend strength of cotton is neutral [1][2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.44% daily increase and 14,490 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 1.26% increase; CY2603 closed at 20,690 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.50% daily increase and 20,535 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.75% increase; ICE US cotton 3 was at 64.48 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2605 yesterday was 646,858 lots, a decrease of 198,137 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,200,876 lots, an increase of 1,238 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 was 9,754 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 16,816 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,388, an increase of 199, and the effective forecast was 2,299, an increase of 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 3 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Shandong was 16,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Hebei was 15,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan or - 0.66%; the 3128B index was 15,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.46 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.48%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,044 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% [1] - **Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot basis quotes are relatively stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF05 + 950 or above. The freight for cotton out of Xinjiang by truck has dropped significantly [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable, but the trading atmosphere is weak. The operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises is low, with most orders being small and short - term. The inventory of grey cloth is higher than the same period in previous years, and the purchasing intention of weaving factories is weak [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly. Although the strengthening of the US dollar has an adverse impact on ICE cotton, there is no new negative news in the international cotton market. ICE cotton is in a low - level oscillating pattern, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [- 2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to the fermentation of geopolitical conflicts in various regions, international energy prices are running strongly. Butadiene and synthetic rubber, as part of the oil product sector, may be supported by short - term sector fluctuations. The butadiene market has a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, with its fundamentals being short - term neutral. The apparent demand for synthetic rubber remains high, and its fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, mainly fluctuating with the cost side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber (BR) 02 contract, the daily closing price decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 12,015 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 66,416 lots to 101,221 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,889 lots to 26,339 lots, and the trading value decreased by 418,950 ten - thousand yuan to 609,966 ten - thousand yuan [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis (Shandong BR - futures main contract) increased by 80 to - 15, and the monthly spread (BR02 - BR05) remained unchanged at - 35. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,600, 11,650, and 11,700 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber model 1502 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton, and model 1712 remained unchanged at 11,100 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,250 and 9,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.4 Fundamentals - The BR operating rate increased by 0.02% to 79.6897%, and the theoretical full cost and profit of BR remained unchanged at 11,873 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 7, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the previous period. The arrival of imported ships decreased significantly, the downstream industries had good operating rates, and the raw material inventory was normally consumed, leading to the decline in port inventory [2] - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic BR inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 1.08% from the previous period. The domestic BR production remained at a high level, and the market was boosted by the sharp increase in raw material prices. The production enterprises' shipments improved, but there was some unsold inventory waiting to be picked up. The overall inventory change was limited, and the inventory of some sample traders decreased slightly [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of LPG is tight, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of downward drivers [1] - The spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening, and the trend is strong [2] 3. Summary of Key Information by Category 3.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2602 closed at 4,221 with a 0.52% daily increase and 4,246 at night with a 0.59% increase; PG2603 closed at 4,136 with a 0.80% daily increase and 4,155 at night with a 0.46% increase. PL2602, PL2603, and PL2604 also showed different price changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts have changed compared to the previous day, such as PG2602's trading volume decreased by 5299 to 47,344, and its open interest decreased by 8297 to 33,462 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads of different regions and contracts have also changed, like the Guangzhou domestic gas to PG02 contract spread decreased from 661 to 639 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Data - **PDH, MTBE, and Alkylation Unit Operating Rates**: The PDH operating rate this week is 75.6%, up from 75.1% last week; the MTBE operating rate is 67.6%, down from 68.0%; the alkylation unit operating rate is 38.2%, up slightly from 38.1% [2] 3.3 Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On January 9, 2026, the February CP paper goods price for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was 516 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The March CP paper goods price for propane was 506 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] - **Domestic PDH Unit Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH unit maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. with a 15 - unit bDH starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [8] - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Several LPG plants have maintenance plans, like Rizhao (CNOOC) with a full - plant shutdown starting on January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, both in a neutral state [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to downstream production cuts in industrial silicon and indicating that polysilicon will experience range - bound fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,715 yuan/ton, with a change of - 145 yuan/ton compared to T - 5; the PS2605 closing price was 51,300 yuan/ton, down 6,620 yuan/ton from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium or discount showed different values when benchmarked against different products, such as + 535 yuan/ton when benchmarked against East China Si5530. The polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - investment was + 3950 yuan/ton [1]. - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 55000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from T - 1 [1]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2611.5 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 4919 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 10.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.2 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from T - 5. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 30.2 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions remained relatively stable, with little change compared to previous periods [1]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Sector**: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.39 yuan/watt. The price of photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) was 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.75 yuan/cubic meter from T - 5 [1]. - **Profits in the Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy Sectors**: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit was 1612 yuan/ton. The ADC12 price was 23700 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 330 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Japan's Toyo (TOYO) has signed a one - year supply agreement with an unnamed US polysilicon manufacturer to secure raw material supply for its 2GW solar cell factory in Ethiopia and 1GW component factory in Houston, Texas. TOYO plans to expand its Ethiopian production capacity to 4GW and Texas component production capacity to 2.5GW later this year. As of the end of 2025, the in - operation capacity of domestic polysilicon in the US reached 33GW, but the in - operation capacity of active silicon ingots and wafers was only 8.3GW [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - **MEG**: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - **Pulp**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - **Methanol**: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - **Urea**: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - **Short - fiber**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, with Trump threatening Iran and being reported to have listened to military strike plans. This could lead to increased competition for strategic resources [8][20]. - The global economic situation shows mixed signals. For example, the US 12 - month non - farm payrolls increase was less than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, and the consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [17][19]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. - Silver: It is approaching a new high. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have risen significantly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. 3.1.2 Copper - The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has risen. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][21]. 3.1.3 Zinc - It is running strongly. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have shown a positive trend, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][24]. 3.1.4 Lead - The overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have increased. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. 3.1.5 Tin - It is oscillating and strengthening. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have risen, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][30]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The center of gravity has significantly increased. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have risen, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. - Alumina: Driven by capital risk preference. The price of alumina futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of aluminum. The price trend is related to the aluminum market. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. 3.1.7 Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, and it is oscillating within a range. The price trend is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. - Palladium: It rose sharply and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. 3.1.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is running with wide - range oscillations. The price of nickel futures has shown significant fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 [13][39]. - Stainless Steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is gambling on Indonesian policies. The price trend is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [13][40]. 3.2 Energy - related Commodities 3.2.1 Crude Oil Although not the main focus, geopolitical tensions may affect the supply and price of crude oil, which in turn impacts related products [72]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The short - term price has weakened significantly, but there is still support below. The price and trading volume of fuel oil futures have changed. The trend strength is 0 [134]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price continued to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to rebound. The trend strength is 0 [134]. 3.3 Chemical Products 3.3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences. The price of PX futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation is changing. The trend strength is 1 [70][74]. - PTA: The cost support is relatively strong. The price of PTA futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand outlook is weakening. The trend strength is 1 [70][75]. - MEG: The trend is strong. The price of MEG futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 1 [70][76]. 3.3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is oscillating in a wide range. The price of rubber futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [77][78]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating at a high level. The price of synthetic rubber futures has changed, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [83][85]. 3.3.3 LLDPE and PP - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The price of LLDPE futures has risen slightly, and the market situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [86][88]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a high expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The price of PP futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [90][91]. 3.3.4 Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating weakly. The price of caustic soda futures is facing downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. The trend strength is - 1 [92][94]. - PVC: It is oscillating weakly. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The trend strength is - 1 [131][132]. 3.3.5 Methanol and Urea - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The price of methanol futures has risen, and the market is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors. The trend strength is 0 [106][110]. - Urea: It is experiencing a short - term correction and is expected to be strong in the medium term. The price of urea futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is improving. The trend strength is 0 [112][114]. 3.3.6 Styrene and Pure Benzene - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The price of styrene futures has increased slightly, and the market valuation is high. The trend strength is 0 [115][116]. - Pure Benzene: It is oscillating mainly in the short term. The price of pure benzene futures has increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 0 [159][161]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm Oil: Attention should be paid to the implementation of negative news in the MPOB report. The price of palm oil futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. - Soybean Oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly in a range. The price of soybean oil futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. 3.4.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean Meal: It is oscillating, waiting for the USDA report. The price of soybean meal futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by US soybean production expectations. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. - Soybean: It is adjusting and oscillating. The price of soybean futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. 3.4.3 Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures has risen slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [172][174]. 3.4.4 Sugar - It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The price of sugar futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [176][178]. 3.4.5 Cotton - It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [181][182]. 3.4.6 Eggs - The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has changed, and the market is affected by supply - demand and feed prices. The trend strength is 0 [185][186]. 3.4.7 Hogs - There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hog futures has shown a certain trend, and the market is affected by supply - demand and consumption factors. The trend strength is - 1 [188][189]. 3.4.8 Peanuts - It is oscillating. The price of peanut futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices. The trend strength is 0 [192][194]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Alumina - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the systematic risk - preference rotation in the non - ferrous sector is still supporting the AO market. It is recommended to find selling points at high prices [9][10]. 3.5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract. The supply - demand situation of shipping capacity is changing, and the market is affected by export policies [136][146]. 3.5.3 Short - fiber and Bottle - grade PET - They are oscillating strongly. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade PET futures have risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [151][152]. 3.5.4 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to go short at high prices. The price of offset printing paper futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The trend strength is - 1 [154][155]. 3.5.5 Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [119][120]. 3.5.6 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces. The price of LPG futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [122][123]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price of propylene futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 0 [123][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Re - testing new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Demand expectations are strengthening, leading to price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Operating in a relatively strong manner [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][14]. - Tin: Oscillating and strengthening [2][16]. - Aluminum: The price center has significantly moved up; Alumina is driven by capital risk preference; Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price [2][20]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, with range - bound oscillations [2][22]. - Palladium: After surging, it declined. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][22]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillations [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][27]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,006.48 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 1008.54 with a 0.80% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18757 with a 1.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 19438.00 with a 6.19% increase [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,653 kg (unchanged), and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3 to 1,064.56. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 17385 kg to 620,262 kg, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 93 to 16,308.48 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have listened to military strike plans [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,410 with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 102220 with a 0.80% increase. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading price increased by 2.07% to 12,966 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2,531 tons to 111,216 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 133 to - 977 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected output of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23970 with a - 0.02% change, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.57% to 3149 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 599 tons to 38874 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 107450 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread increased by 7.5 to - 36.5 [11]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and Canada was worried about US economic actions [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17395 with a 0.35% increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.49% to 2046.5 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Lead inventory increased by 2321 tons to 16188 tons, and the London Lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons to 222725 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 2.55 to - 44.05 [14]. - **News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high, and December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 352,540 with a 0.83% increase, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a 3.15% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 4.64% to 45,700 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 359 tons to 6,429 tons. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 5,300 to 349,750 [17]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and the UK considered deploying troops in Greenland [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24330, and the night - session closing price was 24465. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2843, and the night - session closing price was 2835 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons to 49.78 million tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 71.80 million tons [20]. - **News**: There was a debate about AI, and countries were hoarding strategic materials [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Platinum 2606 futures was 599.80 with a 4.31% increase, and the Palladium 2606 futures price increased by 8.32% to 499.05 [22]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 260 ounces to 624,755 ounces. The Platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,775 ounces to 3,284,543 ounces [22]. - **News**: There were various geopolitical events such as the situation in Thailand, Israel - Gaza, and the UK's consideration of Greenland deployment [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the Chinese government imposed export license management on some steel products [27][28].