席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/24 | 李先飞 | 王蒙 | 刘雨萱 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | Z0012691 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

2025 年 9 月 24 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货价格再创上市以来新 高 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏强 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4518 和 4545 点，支撑位 4444 和 4408 点；IH2512 阻力位 2940 和 2955 点，支撑位 2898 和 2884 点；IC2512 阻力位 7035 和 7081 点，支撑位 6881 和 6785 点；IM2512 阻力位 72 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound due to oil price support, but mid - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions and maintain reverse calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Short - term cost support is strong, but mid - term unilateral trend is weak. Implement 1 - 5 reverse calendar spreads [7]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is bearish due to large supply pressure. Short on rallies and hold reverse calendar spreads [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential escalation of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude futures contract 11 rose $1.13/barrel (+1.81% month - on - month), and ICE Brent crude futures contract 11 rose $1.06/barrel (+1.59% month - on - month) [3]. - **PX**: On September 23, PX price declined. The Asian PX price dropped month - on - month as market sentiment and buying interest weakened. The 10 - month MOPJ was estimated at $586/ton CFR. The PX valuation on September 23 was $803/ton, a $5 decrease from September 22 [3][4]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4470 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 79 [5]. - **MEG**: The spot price this week and next week was around 4325 yuan/ton (high) and 4270 yuan/ton (low), with a daily average of 4297 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from September 22 - 28 was about 7.3 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On September 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of just over 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6530 | - 6592 | - 0.94% | PX11 - 1 | 4 | 18 | - 14 | | PTA Main | 4556 | - 30 | - 0.65% | PTA11 - 1 | - 22 | - 20 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 4212 | - 28 | - 0.66% | MEG1 - 5 | - 67 | - 54 | - 13 | | PF Main | 6250 | - 24 | - 0.38% | PF11 - 12 | 40 | 34 | 6 | | SC Main | 473.1 | - 9.9 | - 2.05% | SC11 - 12 | - 0.5 | - 0.2 | - 0.3 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 803.33 | 808.33 | - 5 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4468 | 4515 | - 47 | | MEG Spot | 4292 | 4342 | - 50 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597.5 | 595.62 | 1.88 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.41 | 66.75 | 1.66 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 218.92 | 227.29 | - 8.38 | | PTA Processing Fee | 174.72 | 189.33 | - 14.61 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 237.89 | 220.08 | 17.81 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 67.94 | 40.17 | 27.78 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market decline due to Argentina's tax - exemption policy on soybeans is followed by a reasonable trading strategy of buying soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [1] - Argentina's soybean and its downstream products have limited additional export potential, and it's difficult to fundamentally impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern [4] - The tax - exemption policy can improve the domestic soybean supply gap before the Spring Festival, but the import cost has limited room to decline, and it's hard to support a continuous drop in soybean prices [9] - With the current La Nina climate, the weather risk in South American soybean - producing areas will influence soybean prices, and short - term negative factors have been partially released, suggesting a dip - buying strategy [14][25] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Argentina's Potential Soybean Export Capacity is Limited - From the supply - demand fundamentals, Argentina's additional export space for soybeans and downstream products is narrow. The 2024/25 annual carry - over stock is 675 million tons, the 2025/26 expected carry - over stock is 695 million tons, and the tax - exemption policy is estimated to stimulate an additional export of 300 - 400 million tons [4][5] - The high inflation rate (208.09% in 2024) and the continuous depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar, along with government policies, make market players prefer to hold physical goods rather than release stocks [5] - The export elasticity of Argentine soybean meal and soybean oil is lower, with an estimated additional export of about 100 million tons of soybean meal and 25 million tons of soybean oil [5] 2. Domestic Soybean Purchase Costs are Unlikely to Drop Significantly 2.1 The Domestic Soybean Supply Gap Before the Spring Festival is Expected to Improve - By the report date, the total pre - Spring Festival 2026 soybean purchase demand is about 3300 million tons, with about 2030 million tons already purchased and 1260 million tons remaining. If Argentina's additional 300 - 400 million tons of soybeans enter the domestic market, the gap will be alleviated [10][11] 2.2 The Decline in Imported Soybean Costs is Constrained by Multiple Factors - Based on "pessimistic - neutral - optimistic" scenarios, the import cost of Argentine soybeans ranges from 3459 yuan/ton to 3898 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans from 3693 yuan/ton to 4133 yuan/ton, and US soybeans (assuming a 3% import tariff) from 3635 yuan/ton to 4015 yuan/ton, indicating limited decline space [12][13] 3. Weather - Driven Market is Approaching - As of September 22, 2025, the NINO3.4 index was - 0.846, below the La Nina threshold of - 0.5 [15] - La Nina affects the atmospheric circulation, increasing precipitation in some areas and causing high - temperature and low - rainfall conditions in others, which impacts soybean yields [16] - Since 2008, there have been 4 La Nina events affecting soybean yields in Argentina and Brazil, with the 2022 - 2023 event having the greatest impact on soybeans [21] 4. Dip - Buying Trading Strategy - After considering supply - demand, cost, and weather factors, it is recommended to buy soybean meal and soybean oil on dips [25] - For the M2601 soybean meal contract, the entry range is 2900 - 2950 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 2830 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 3230 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [26] - For the 2601 soybean oil contract, the entry range is 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton, the stop - loss price is around 7880 yuan/ton, and the target profit is around 8680 yuan/ton, with a profit - loss ratio of about 3:1 [27]

报告导读： 咖啡树属于茜草科，3 年挂果，4-5 年进入盛果期，商业种植农场一般 20-30 年更新种植。咖啡豆主 要分为三种，阿拉比卡、罗布斯塔和利比里卡。阿拉比卡产量占比 70-75%，罗布斯塔产量占比 20-25%， 利比里卡产量占比 2-3%。 全球咖啡生产高度集中。USDA 预计 25/26 年全球咖啡产量为 1072 万吨，TOP5 产量占比 73.49%，前 5 大生产国是巴西、越南、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚和埃塞俄比亚。80%以上的咖啡产量用于出口，TOP5 出 口占比 65.18%，前 5 大出口国与生产国重叠。全球咖啡消费相对产量略微分散。USDA 预计 25/26 年全球 咖啡消费量为 1016 万吨，TOP5 消费占比 59.92%，前 5 大消费国家/区域分别是欧盟、美国、巴西、菲律 宾和日本，中国排名第 6。全球咖啡期末库存消费比仍较低，USDA 预计 25/26 年全球期末库存 137 万 吨，期末库存消费比仍处于较低水平。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 24 日 全球咖啡现货市场扫描 ---"君研咖啡"系列报告之一 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 z ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the latest prices of international crude oil futures, analyzes the status of global benchmark crude oil, refined oil, and regional crude oil arbitrage, and reports key market news and trends in the crude oil market [1][2][3][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Arab Extra, Arab Light, Nemba, and Agbami against WTI MEH all had closed arbitrage with negative spreads, indicating poor economic efficiency and competitiveness [2]. Refined Oil Arbitrage - **Gasoline Route**: The European - New York route was open with a profit of $1.06/bbl, while others like Mediterranean - New York and European - Mexico were closed [3]. - **Diesel Route**: Routes from USGC ULSD to NWE and Mediterranean were open, with profits of $1.1/bbl and $0.08/bbl respectively; some routes from the Arab Gulf had negative or narrow - profit situations [5]. - **Aviation Fuel Route**: Routes like Arab Gulf - Mediterranean were open with a profit of $1.05/bbl, while others such as Korea - USWC were closed [5]. US Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Asian gasoline cracking spreads fluctuated, diesel cracking spreads were strong, jet fuel cracking spreads improved, and naphtha cracking spreads were negative but narrowing [6]. Northeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Freight rates for various routes such as AG - USGC, WAF - USGC, USGC - NWE, and AG - Singapore increased, reflecting increased demand and active transportation [7]. Key Market News - France's President Macron will meet with Iran's President to discuss restoring UN sanctions; Spain approved a "full - scale arms embargo" on Israel; Iran's Supreme Leader said no intention to produce nuclear weapons; there are concerns about restoring sanctions on Iran; US API crude and Cushing inventories changed; Russia may extend gasoline and discuss diesel export bans [10]. Crude Oil Trend Intensity The crude oil trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the current - month contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.28%, IH rose 0.21%, IC fell 0.58%, and IM fell 0.92% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 60,842 lots, 20,358 lots, 67,179 lots, and 115,729 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 20,632 lots, 2,169 lots, 23,060 lots, and 39,228 lots respectively [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3,821.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21%. A - shares traded 2.52 trillion yuan throughout the day, up from 2.14 trillion yuan the previous day [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **CSI 300 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,519.78, down 0.06%. Among its futures, IF2510 closed at 4,510.2, up 0.28%, with a basis of - 9.58, and its trading volume was 69.63 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,919.51, down 0.09%. IH2510 closed at 2,923.2, up 0.21%, with a basis of 3.69, and its trading volume was 19.14 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,180.71, down 0.61%. IC2510 closed at 7,083.2, down 0.58%, with a basis of - 97.51, and its trading volume was 73.63 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.07, down 1.09%. IM2510 closed at 7,305.6, down 0.92%, with a basis of - 102.47, and its trading volume was 120.76 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2510, long - order increase was 6,429, and short - order increase was 6,445. For IF2511, the net change in long orders was 17,161, and the net change in short orders was 18,567 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2510, long - order increase was 1,447, and short - order increase was 840. For IH2512, the net change in long orders was 2,390, and the net change in short orders was 1,128 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2510, long - order increase was 8,153, and short - order increase was 7,619. For IC2512, the net change in long orders was 17,770, and the net change in short orders was 17,433 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2510, long - order increase was 8,337, and short - order increase was 8,376. For IM2512, the net change in long orders was 24,250, and the net change in short orders was 24,467 [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4 Important Drivers - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on new industrialization, implement actions to cultivate emerging industries, and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [7] - In August, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0154 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Industrial electricity consumption was 590.9 billion kWh, accounting for nearly 60%, and the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the highest this year [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends, including continued highs, oscillations, declines, and rebounds [2][5]. - Macroeconomic factors such as Fed policies, international political situations, and natural disasters impact commodity prices [8][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 843.00, up 1.87% [2][6][7]. - **Silver**: Undergoes oscillatory adjustments, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, with prices oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][20]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an oscillatory band, with a trend strength of 0 [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina oscillates weakly, with a trend strength of -1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures warehouse receipts increase, and market sentiment fluctuations should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0. Polysilicon's price declines on the disk, and there is a preference for short - term non - standard product shipments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand is weak, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][47][50]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Prices oscillate widely due to the game of capital sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][54][56]. - **Log**: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil rebounds, providing support for international oils and fats [5][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Argentina cancels the export tax on beans, and US soybeans oscillate weakly [5][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions [5][65]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The sentiment in the soybean market recovers, and prices rebound and oscillate [5][65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [5][67]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the impact of "Hurricane Hagarsha" on sugarcane areas [5][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the transaction price of seed cotton [5][70]. - **Egg**: The peak season is not prosperous [5][72]. - **Live Pig**: It is in the stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [5][73]. - **Peanut**: Prices oscillate [5][74].

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 期货研究 商 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 24 日 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：山东厂库承压，华东出货走稳 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：后期低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡，中期承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期窄幅震荡 | 24 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘大幅转强，短期易涨难跌 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will see a slight decline. The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price. Tin and aluminum will trade within a range. Alumina will trend weakly sideways, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 1.87%, 1.69%, and 1.66% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also rose, with daily increases of 3.50%, 3.09%, and 2.19% respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 23,071 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,974 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products changed. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 10,819 kg [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 1 [8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.30%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,994 US dollars, with a daily decrease of 0.08% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,668 [10]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 2,166 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 400 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Copper was 8.19%, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the previous day [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,900 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 15,195 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,947. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938, and the open interest increased by 493 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.17% [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 13,989 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 3,336. The trading volume of LME Lead decreased by 146, and the open interest increased by 953 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2,747 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1,700 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,880 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.31%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,270 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.73% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 12,188 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,060. The trading volume of LME Tin decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 182 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 5 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous day [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,685 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,877 yuan, a decrease of 57 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,280 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 4,581, and the open interest decreased by 10,619 [24]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 51.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, that of alumina is - 1, and that of aluminum alloy is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,730 yuan, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,890 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 13,200 compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 402 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel ore production in Indonesia is 364 million tons. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [33].