2025 年 7 月 30 日 PVC：短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 5192 | 5020 | -172 | -124 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场成交清淡，现货市场报价淡稳，盘中价格震荡走低，行业政策预期偏弱，现货基本 面供需矛盾持续，终端采购谨慎观望，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 4980-5120 元/吨，乙烯法在 5000- 5200 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 期货研究 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PV ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea has entered a mid - term oscillation pattern. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the second - batch export of urea may support the demand side. In the short term, the commodity index rebounds with oscillations. The daily fluctuations mainly depend on the overall trend of the commodity index under macro - sentiment guidance and the daily spot trading volume [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,744 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,739 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), the trading volume was 151,631 lots (down 97,747 lots), the open interest of the 09 contract was 152,980 lots (down 144 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 2,900 tons (unchanged), and the trading value was 5.27502 billion yuan (down 3.42913 billion yuan). The Shandong regional basis was 16 (down 26), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 94 (down 16), the Dongguang - to - futures basis was 16 (down 26), and the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 26 (down 6) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,495 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Ruixing was 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi Fengxi was 1,650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hebei Dongguang was 1,760 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and Jiangsu Linggu was 1,830 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,760 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) and in Shanxi were 1,650 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] 3.1.3 Supply - side Indicators - The operating rate was 83.21% (up 1.04 percentage points), and the daily output was 192,650 tons (up 2,400 tons) [2] 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons (4.10% month - on - month) from the previous week. The inventory decline narrowed. Although domestic urea demand was weak and factory orders and shipments slowed, due to some goods being exported and local downstream purchasing at low prices, the overall factory inventory decreased slightly. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases. With weak trading recently and the second - batch export not yet started, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures market is showing a relatively strong trend, with the Si2509 contract having a closing price of 9,350 yuan/ton, and the market is expected to maintain a strong operation [1]. - The polysilicon futures market is also influenced by news and shows a strong trend, with the PS2509 contract having a closing price of 50,805 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 305 yuan compared to T - 5; the closing price of PS2509 is 50,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,700 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Basis Data**: The spot premium and discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon have different changes compared to different benchmarks, such as the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) being +505 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 9,800 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 46,500 yuan/ton, showing different price trends over different time periods [2]. - **Profit Data**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 1,851 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 17.6 yuan/kg, with different profit changes over different time periods [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 53.5 million tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 24.3 million tons, showing different inventory change trends [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. have different price changes in different regions [2]. - **Prices and Profits of Downstream Products**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and photovoltaic products have also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 21, the National Energy Administration stated that it will accelerate the implementation of the institutional and mechanism construction for new energy to participate in the power market, promote the formulation of supporting policies in various regions, and improve the market mechanism design suitable for new energy characteristics. It will also promote the innovation of power distribution mechanisms to enhance the consumption and utilization level of new energy [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 合成橡胶：短期震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 【行业新闻】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （09合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,835 104,614 | 11,955 150,860 | -120 -46246 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 41,136 | 45,103 | -3967 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 620,306 | 914,961 | -294655 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 65 | 195 | -130 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | （民营） | -30 | -35 | 5 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated July 30, 2025, covering commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation due to sectoral market resonance [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation driven by sectoral sentiment resonance [2][9] - Coke and coking coal are predicted to have a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized [2][13][14] - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with an oscillatory pattern as daily consumption recovers [2][18] - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][22] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.53%. The open interest of I2509 decreased by 7,237 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [4] - **News**: On July 28, local time, China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,347 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 1.98%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,503 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton or 2.01%. Spot prices in various regions increased. Output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][7] - **News**: From July 24th steel union weekly data, production, inventory, and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased. On July 24th, relevant departments issued a notice on soliciting opinions on the price law amendment draft [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also rose. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed different changes [9] - **News**: On July 29th, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14] - **Price and Position**: Northern port coking coal quotes and relevant price indices were provided. On July 29th, from the top 20 members' position in DCE, long and short positions of coking coal and coke contracts decreased [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [19] - **Fundamentals**: Southern port foreign trade steam coal quotes and domestic production area quotes were provided. On July 29th, from the top 20 members' position in ZCE, long and short positions of the ZC2508 contract did not change [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained relatively stable or had small changes [23] - **News**: On July 28, local time, China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [25] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [25]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, with attention to the switch of macroeconomic sentiment [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market shows a strong upward trend [13]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market shows a strong upward trend [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan. Trading volumes and price changes over different time intervals are provided [5]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on various nickel and stainless - steel products such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel sheets are presented, including prices, spreads, and profit margins [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park, and audits and potential fines are planned [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved production target for Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of its EF lines, affecting about 1,900 metal tons of nickel - iron output per month [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting in October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts, as well as other related indicators such as basis and spreads, are provided [10]. - **Industry Chain**: Prices of raw materials like lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, and lithium - salt products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [10]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 668 yuan/ton [11]. - China issued 1,121 energy - storage project lists in the first half of 2025, with a total installed capacity of over 198.145GW [12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the Si2509 and PS2509 contracts, as well as spreads, basis, and cost data, are provided [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Information on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is presented [14]. Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration of China will accelerate the construction of the new - energy power - market system and promote the development of supporting policies [15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [16].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 30 日 LPG：底部支撑走强 丙烯：原料升贴水走强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 4,028 | 0.90% | 4,037 | 0.22% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,428 | 0.73% | 4,445 | 0.38% | | | PL2601 | 6,573 | 0.05% | 6,600 | 0.41% | | | PL2602 | 6,641 | -0.05% | 6,654 | 0.20% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 87,634 | -19025 | 87,452 | -4766 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 27,289 | -266 | 63,575 | 1406 | | | PL2601 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and go short on PXN when it rallies. Due to the restart of a 210,000 - tonne unit and the shutdown of a 400,000 - tonne unit, supply decreases marginally. The 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduces its load, leading to a marginal decline in demand. With a significant strengthening of the cost side, short PXN on rallies [7]. - PTA: Focus on going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis remains weak at - 5 yuan/ton, and basis reverse arbitrage operations are still maintained. As the monthly spread approaches parity and considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August, pay attention to the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage. Also, focus on the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuations [7][8]. - MEG: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. With continuous decline in port inventories and some buying in the basis in late August, but considering the delivery pressure on the 09 contract, the monthly spread is always weak, making the ethylene glycol trend weak. Also, pay attention to the short ethylene glycol and long L arbitrage. In terms of supply, it is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide units are expected to switch to ethylene glycol production in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The strengthening of crude oil prices is the key driving factor, influenced by the optimistic sentiment towards China - US trade negotiations and the expectation of a decrease in US crude oil inventories. A 210,000 - tonne PX production line of Idemitsu Kosan restarted on July 28, and a 400,000 - tonne unit shut down. On July 29, there were bids and offers for September and October deliveries in the Asian PX market, but no transactions were concluded [2][5]. - PTA: A 7.2 - million - tonne PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [5]. - MEG: From July 28 to August 3, the planned arrival volume at major ports is about 1.56 million tons. Pay attention to the impact of weather factors on vessel entry efficiency during the week [6]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - tonne polyester device in Wuxi plans to restart tomorrow, and a 300,000 - tonne device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since July 28 for about 15 - 20 days. A 200,000 - tonne device in Shaoxing started maintenance on July 28 for about a month. A 30,000 - tonne low - melting - point staple fiber device in Xiamen has been shut down for maintenance today for a month. On July 29, the sales of direct - spun staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were still sluggish, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% [6][7]. Price and Spread Data | Variety | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Monthly Spread Yesterday's Closing Price | Monthly Spread Change | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday's Price | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6942 | 6890 | 0.75% | 108 | 18 | 857.33 | 6 | 292.5 | 12.96 | | PTA | 4838 | 26 | 0.54% | 6 | 4 | 4830 | - 15 | 192.67 | - 5.64 | | MEG | 4467 | 31 | 0.70% | - 25 | 3 | 4518 | 19 | - | - | | PF | 6500 | 18 | 0.28% | - 32 | - 2 | - | - | 84.81 | - 30.82 | | SC | 515 | 9.1 | 1.80% | 6.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Hold long positions in crude oil, and prices may challenge $80 per barrel again [1] Core View - The report provides information on international crude oil futures prices, API inventory data, and various industry news, suggesting a potential upward trend in crude oil prices [1][4] Detailed Summary International Crude Oil - WTI September crude oil futures rose $2.50 per barrel, or 3.75%, to $69.21 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $2.47 per barrel, or 3.52%, to $72.51 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures rose 12.80 yuan per barrel, or 2.49%, to 527.50 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member countries to fully comply with quotas [2] - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3%, the US growth forecast to 1.9%, and the China growth forecast to 4.8% [3] - Trump suggested the EU buy $1 trillion of US energy during his term, and the EU agreed to buy $750 billion [4] - US API crude inventories for the week ending July 25 were 153.9 million barrels (previous -57.7 million barrels, expected -250 million barrels); API Cushing crude inventories were 46.5 million barrels (previous 31.4 million barrels); API gasoline inventories were -173.9 million barrels (previous -122.8 million barrels, expected -114.7 million barrels); API refined oil inventories were 418.9 million barrels (previous 348 million barrels, expected -90.6 million barrels) [4] - Trump said he was not worried about oil if sanctions were imposed on Russia [4] - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Trump accepted that natural resources would not face tariffs [4] - Kuwait's oil minister was optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market [4] - Traders expected OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery [4] - The EU's sanctions on India's Nayara Energy led to a reduction in its crude oil production [4] - On July 29, China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened, and due to the small price adjustment amount, gasoline and diesel prices remained unchanged [4] - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures, and the two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]

2025年07月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：偏强震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌、菜粕偏强，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：情绪降温，郑棉期货回调 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：弱现实强预期，趋势反套 | 10 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 豆油：偏强震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 CEPA 谈判的重点是棕榈油。欧盟最初完全拒绝将棕榈油纳入该协议，这就是他们提出 EUDR 的原因，但事 实证明他们确实需要我们的棕榈油。因此 ...