1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, providing insights into their market trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies. For instance, it mentions that the export tax - rebate policy adjustment will lead to a "rush - to - export" phenomenon in the lithium carbonate and shipping industries, while the US Department of Justice's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may cause market fluctuations [7][8][150]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment is rising, with the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closing at 1,026.28 yuan, up 1.97% [18]. - Silver: Prices are rising rapidly, with the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closing at 20,957 yuan, up 11.92% [18]. Copper - Spot prices are strengthening, supporting the price. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,800 yuan, up 2.36% [21]. Zinc - The market is oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,175 yuan, up 0.86% [24]. Lead - A decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan, up 0.46% [27]. Tin - The market is oscillating upwards. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 376,920 yuan, up 6.92% [30]. Aluminum - The market is running strongly. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan, up 1.31% [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: Narrow - range oscillation. The platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan, up 3.83% [38]. - Palladium: Range - bound oscillation. The palladium futures 2606 contract closed at 505.10 yuan, up 1.21% [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 144,200 yuan, up 3.6% [43]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel - iron raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of a "rush - to - export", attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand after a significant price increase. The 2601 contract closed at 146,000 yuan, up 5.0% [48]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical factors, prices are at a one - month high. The front - month ICE Brent contract closed at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 2.18% [79]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: Unilateral high - level oscillation. The PX main contract closed at 7,308 yuan, up 0.97% [76]. - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PTA main contract closed at 5,142 yuan, up 0.67% [76]. - MEG: Low - level rebound, with limited downward valuation space. The MEG main contract closed at 3,880 yuan, up 0.36% [76]. Rubber - Wide - range oscillation. The rubber main contract closed at a price not specified in the report [84]. Synthetic Rubber - Upward pressure is gradually increasing. The butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) closed at 12,070 yuan, up 55 yuan [88]. LLDPE - Some production of standard products is being redirected, and regional spot shortages are being replenished. The L2605 contract closed at 6,737 yuan, up 0.94% [91]. PP - Downstream "rush - to - export" supports propylene, and PP has strong cost support. The PP2605 contract closed at 6,560 yuan, up 0.71% [94]. Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation. The 03 - contract futures price was 2,180 yuan, and the Shandong spot 32 - alkali price was 685 yuan [96]. Pulp - Wide - range oscillation. The pulp main contract (05 contract) closed at 5,490 yuan, down 60 yuan [103]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG605 contract closed at 1,143 yuan, down 0.09% [107]. Methanol - High - level oscillation. The methanol main contract (05 contract) closed at 2,263 yuan, down 10 yuan [111]. Urea - Short - term correction, medium - term strength. The urea main contract (05 contract) closed at 1,783 yuan, up 6 yuan [115]. Styrene - Short - term oscillation. The styrene 2601 contract closed at 6,775 yuan, down 3 yuan [118]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract closed at 1,239 yuan, up 1.31% [123]. LPG - Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The PG2602 contract closed at 4,239 yuan, up 0.43% [127]. Propylene - Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend. The PL2602 contract closed at 5,978 yuan, up 1.10% [127]. PVC - Weak oscillation. The 05 - contract futures price was 4,940 yuan, and the East China spot price was 4,620 yuan [135]. Fuel Oil - The weak trend continues, with support at the bottom. The FU2602 contract closed at 2,501 yuan, down 1.42% [139]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Entered into an oscillatory phase, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market is continuously rebounding. The LU2602 contract closed at 3,040 yuan, down 0.52% [139]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil - The upward momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly within a range. The soybean oil main contract closed at 7,994 yuan, unchanged [172]. Palm Oil - After a negative report was released, the rebound in crude oil prices boosted the price of palm oil. The palm oil main contract closed at 8,724 yuan, up 0.48% [172]. Bean Meal - The USDA report is bearish, and the price may follow the decline of US soybeans. The DCE bean - meal 2605 contract closed at 2,790 yuan, up 0.14% [180]. Bean One - Affected by the USDA report, the price may adjust and oscillate. The DCE bean - one 2605 contract closed at 4,356 yuan, down 0.55% [180]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The C2603 contract closed at 2,290 yuan, up 1.19% [184]. Sugar - Range consolidation. The futures main - contract price was 5,285 yuan, down 3 yuan [187]. Cotton - Continued adjustment. The CF2605 contract closed at 14,625 yuan, down 0.34% [192]. Eggs - Spot trading is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening. The egg 2602 contract closed at 2,996 yuan, up 0.23% [198]. Hogs - There is negative feedback in demand, and supply is expected to increase. The hog 2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan, up 50 yuan [201]. Peanuts - Oscillatory operation. The PK603 contract closed at 7,868 yuan, down 1.67% [204]. Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Pay attention to the cabin - opening guidance; lightly short the 04 contract. The EC2602 contract closed at 1,748.0 points, up 1.03%, and the EC2604 contract closed at 1,280.8 points, up 11.3% [141][150].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: For silicon ferroalloy, the commodity market sentiment remains strong, and the futures market fluctuates widely; for manganese ferroalloy, overseas mining companies have raised their quotes, and the futures market also fluctuates widely [2][11]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Due to event fermentation, they are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15]. - **Logs**: The market fluctuates repeatedly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Product Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.98% from the previous day. Among imported ores, the price of Carajas fines (65%) rose 5 yuan to 911 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines (61.5%) rose 3 yuan to 829 yuan/ton. The trend strength is 0 [4]. - **News**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.8% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60%. The HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.55%. According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.82 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1 ton, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 21.77 tons, while the apparent demand decreased by 44.2 tons [6][7]. - **News**: In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.07 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons, a 11.0% decrease from the previous period [7]. Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy - **Fundamentals**: The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract closed at 5,930 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan to 5,350 yuan/ton [11]. - **News**: On January 12, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi decreased by 25 yuan/ton. Jupiter, South32, and other companies raised their manganese ore quotes for February 2026 [12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan or 3.6%. The J2605 contract of coke closed at 1,770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Lvliang low - sulfur primary coking coal rose 52 yuan to 1,455 yuan/ton [15]. - **News**: On January 12, the CCI metallurgical coal index of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal rose 30 yuan to 1,260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises in Ordos will increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from January 15 [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2603 contract of logs closed at 774.5 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from the previous day. The trading volume of the 2603 contract decreased by 28.3%. The spot - 2603 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 3% [21]. - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than 51.2 in November, indicating a further increase in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23].

商 品 研 究 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：快速拉升 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 2026 年 1 月 13 日 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,026.28 | 1.97% | 1008.54 | 0.80% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,022.12 | 1.91% | 1005.52 | 0.55% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4608.80 | 2.00% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20957 | 11.92% | 19438.00 | 6.19% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 20902 | 11.69% | 19400 | 4.53% | | | Comex白银2602 | 85.155 | 6.72% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | # ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Historically, the A-share market has a typical calendar effect, with the "Spring Rally" occurring around the end of the year, through the Spring Festival, and until the "Two Sessions." It has rarely been absent, lasting about 40 trading days on average, with the Wind All A Index rising an average of 20% and a median increase of 15%. The rally tends to favor small-cap growth stocks [1][5]. - The core logic behind the "Spring Rally" lies in the performance vacuum period, which creates room for expectation games. Positive policy expectations from the beginning - of - year policy kick - off and the "Two Sessions," seasonal improvement in liquidity, and abundant theme investment opportunities contribute to a positive feedback loop of "fund inflow - price increase - further fund inflow" [1]. - The continuation of the "Spring Rally" requires dynamic attention to core drivers such as policies, liquidity, and risk preferences. Key time points include before the Spring Festival and around the second quarter. The full - year market requires both "valuation + earnings" dual - wheel drive, especially driven by the consensus of earnings repair [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Spring Rally" Review - Except for 2022 (unilateral decline) and 2015 (atypical unilateral rise), the "Spring Rally" has occurred in other years since 2010. It usually starts between December and January, with 5 times starting in December, 7 times in January, and 3 times in February. The average duration is about 40 trading days, and the Wind All A Index rises an average of 20% with a median increase of 15%. Small - cap growth stocks are favored in 8 out of 15 rallies [5]. 3.2 "Spring Rally" Driving Factors - The "Spring Rally" is driven by liquidity and policy expectations rather than performance. After the new year, institutional funds replenish positions, and there is a peak in credit issuance. Economic data and corporate earnings are in a vacuum, and policies create a positive atmosphere at the beginning of the year. If the market has adjusted significantly before the rally, the subsequent increase is often higher than average [9]. 3.3 Turning Drivers of the "Spring Rally" - The turning points in the "Spring Rally" are mainly affected by internal and external factors. Internally, a shift in policies, such as a reduction in the intensity of pro - growth policies or actions to cool the stock market, can lead to market adjustments. Externally, overseas economic recessions, geopolitical events, or trade frictions can also impact the domestic market [12][13]. - In early 2019, after the market adjustment in 2018, policies turned to "Six Stabilities" at the end of 2018, leading to a significant "Spring Rally." However, in the second quarter of 2019, the Politburo meeting did not mention "Six Stabilities" and re - emphasized "housing is for living in, not for speculation," and trade frictions reignited, causing the rally to end [14][17]. - In early 2012, after the market decline in 2011, policies shifted at the end of 2011, resulting in a "Spring Rally." The rally ended due to policy tightening, pessimistic economic expectations, and external factors such as the re - emergence of the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff issue [19][20]. 3.4 Two - stage Focus for the Current "Spring Rally" - To predict the sustainability or inflection point of the current "Spring Rally," it is necessary to track the realization of positive expectations and key time points. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to the local "Two Sessions," the confirmation or refutation of easing expectations, and the appointment of the new Fed chair. Around the second quarter, focus on events such as Trump's possible visit to China in April, the Politburo meeting in late April, the verification of real - world demand and macro data during the "Golden March and Silver April," and corporate earnings reports [23][24].

1月12日,沪锡期货价格在低库存的驱动下表现强 势,主力合约SN2602高开上扬,并在上午休市前以8% 的涨幅涨停。 从基本面看,库存方面,社会库存重回去库,国内 现货升水有所抬高。整体基本面呈现偏强态势,国内锡 隐形库存相对于润,使得高价下库存无法快速累库。矿 端来看,目前矿端供应仍然偏紧,缅甸矿区复产迟缓, 短期内对锡矿供应仍有一定制约,叠加上尼日利亚、刚 果(金) 等产区锡矿供应仍有扰动,供给增量有限。冶 炼端来看,目前加工费维持低位,矿端紧缺影响冶炼企 业生产节奏,开工率周度有所降低。需求端来看,锡产 品占终端产品成本比例小,终端需求对锡价相对不敏感。 此外关税方面,当地时间1月9日,美国最高法院表示, 当天不会就特朗普政府关税案作出裁决。此前市场普遍 预计可能裁决有关关税政策非法,消息推升了市场对关 税抗动的预期。 锡库存去化下 强势涨停 发布时间: 2026年1月12日 锡 场外期权 对于有中期布多计划的投资者,考虑当日市场封 住涨停,波动率与绝对价格处于较高水平,建议布局 周期适中、执行价幅度较宽的凤凰累购期权,或等待 市场走势趋稳时再考虑买入香草看涨期权,在波动率 与价格上保留一定安全垫。 风 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the upside risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent crude oil may challenge the range of $65 - $68 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.36, or 2.35%, to $59.12 per barrel - ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.35, or 2.18%, to $63.34 per barrel - SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 11.90 yuan per barrel, or 2.79%, at 437.70 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties) have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including unprofitable imports, low cracking profits, high freight, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: Forties has a closed arbitrage state with limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space, while Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage state with an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] - **North - West Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage**: WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state due to good cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness respectively. Azeri Light has a closed state because of environmental policies [3] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk) have a closed arbitrage state due to low demand, high freight, and structural oversupply [3] - **Asia Crude Oil Arbitrage**: All listed crude oil varieties (Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, Eagle Ford) have a closed arbitrage state due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [4] 3.3 Key Market News - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the Iran situation with US Secretary of State Rubio - US President Trump said that the flow of oil and funds from Venezuela to Cuba will end - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed the "Somaliland" colluding with Taiwan authorities for independence - Cuban Foreign Minister stated that Cuba will not yield to US extortion or military coercion [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) may show a strong - biased oscillation. For the 02 long positions and 04 short positions, consider reducing positions as appropriate [1]. - The freight rate of the European line in the 3 - 4 month off - season is in a weak supply - demand balance, and the marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of some commodities in the first quarter cannot reverse this trend [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of EC2602 was 1,729.8, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 11,327 and an open interest of 17,703, a decrease of 2,305. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,144.5, down 2.13%, with a trading volume of 13,495 and an open interest of 29,021, an increase of 1,247 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was $1,719/TEU, up 1.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route was $2,218/FEU, up 1.4% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight**: The spot freight rates of different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $2,636 to $3,293 and for 20'GP from $1,533 to $2,110 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.87, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.99 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - **January Capacity**: There were no pending voyages in January. The average weekly capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. There were some changes in shipping schedules during the week [11]. - **February Capacity**: The latest February shipping schedule included 11 blank sailings, with no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% [11]. - **March Capacity**: There were 9 blank sailings and 2 pending voyages in March. The average weekly capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Chinese New Year blank sailings were mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [11]. - **Spring Festival Capacity Comparison**: The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 was 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The post - festival capacity growth rate was significantly higher [12]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - **General Demand**: In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak usually appears around mid - January and then declines [13]. - **New Demand Variable**: The Ministry of Finance's export tax - rebate policy changes may lead to a rush - shipping season for some products in the first quarter of 2026, which has a marginal positive impact on the demand from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April. The specific impact on contracts depends on the shipping rhythm [13]. 3.4 Freight Rate Analysis - **Current Spot Freight Rates**: The FAK average of the 2nd - 3rd week was in the range of $2,700 - $2,760/FEU. Different alliances and carriers had different freight rate levels [14]. - **Contract Valuation and Strategy** - **2602 Contract**: A neutral - to - pessimistic freight rate scenario was assumed, and under this scenario, the 2602 contract valuation may fall in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there was marginal benefit from the rush - shipping in the first quarter, it could not reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the 3 - 4 month off - season [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing both 02 long positions and 04 short positions to avoid uncertainty. For the 2610 contract, maintain a strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the settlement price of the 2510 contract at 1,161 points [15][16]. 3.5 Geopolitical Situation The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not significantly cooled down [12].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 12 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：再探新高 期货研究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,006.48 | 0.86% | 1008.54 | 0.80% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,002.92 | 0.71% | 1005.52 | 0.55% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4518.40 | 0.68% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4507.74 | 0.72% | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 18757 | 1.55% | 19438.00 | 6.19% | | | 白银T+D | 18759 | 2.17% | 19400 | 4.53% | | 价 格 | Comex白银2602 | 79.790 | 4.04% | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 12 日 豆粕：震荡，等待凌晨 USDA 报告 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4378 | +0（+0.00%） 4342 | -38（-0.87%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2786 | -18（-0.64%） 2780 | -6（-0.22%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1062.75 | +1.5（+0.14%） 附注： | 1月USDA供需报告和季度库存报告发 | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | +0.2 303.8 | 布的北京时间为1月13日凌晨1点。 （+0.07%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 3160～3200， 较昨-30至持平； | 1月M2605+350/+380， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral bullish, focus on the positive spread between different contract months, and consider a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [5] - PTA: Unilateral bullish, go long on PX and short on PTA [6] - MEG: Unilateral short - term bullish rebound, exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of PX, PTA, and MEG, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment. It believes that although the fundamentals of these products may face challenges in the future, short - term price trends are still affected by various factors and show a relatively strong performance [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts increased to varying degrees yesterday, with the largest increase of 3.96% in SC. The price spreads of different contract months also changed, with PX5 - 9 and PTA5 - 9 rising, and MEG5 - 9 falling [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent prices increased, while PTA East China price decreased. The spreads between PX and naphtha, and short - fiber processing fees decreased, while PTA processing fees and bottle - chip processing fees increased [2] Market Dynamics - On January 9, during the Asian trading session, crude oil prices strengthened due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Iran. However, the increase in foreign currency prices was not as strong as that of other commodities [3] - Chinese downstream polyester production slowed down earlier than expected due to poor sales and lower profit margins. The buying interest in PX cargoes arriving in February was still weak, and demand was expected to be weak during the Chinese New Year holiday in February [3] - Outside China, the situation of cargo accumulation was not as severe, with only a small amount of unsold February PX cargoes among some South Korean manufacturers [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Although the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the future, with increasing supply and high processing fees, cost support from oil prices and positive macro - market sentiment keep the short - term trend strong. Consider a positive spread between different contract months and a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA when PTA processing fees rise above 400 yuan/ton [5] - **PTA**: Future supply and demand are expected to be weak, with PTA device operation rate stable and downstream demand decreasing. However, due to the current high polyester operation rate and low PTA inventory, the short - term price trend is still strong. Pay attention to positions for narrowing the processing fee [6] - **MEG**: The current low price is due to the reduced efficiency of the intermediate trading link, which is expected to improve. Although demand will decline, supply pressure will also be relieved, and the price has strong support at 3600 yuan/ton. Exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7]